Jeff Alexander
Florida Gulf Coast/Florida UNDER 136
There are a couple strong systems supporting this play on the under. Plays on the "under" on neutral court teams like Florida Gulf Coast that have gone over the total by more than 12 points in three consecutive games, as long as they are a good team (60% to 80%) and playing a team with a winning record, are 22-6 since 1997. This system shows how oddsmakers have a tendency to over-inflate the total after a string of easy "overs". Also, plays under on neutral court teams like FGCU that have won 15 or more of their last 20 games and are seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA tournament are 119-64 since 1997. Take the UNDER.
Jack Jones
Los Angeles Clippers +5
The Los Angeles Clippers are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight when they travel to face the San Antonio Spurs. I look for them to win this game outright because of it, but I'll simply take the points for some insurance.
Los Angeles wants revenge from one of its worse losses of the season. It was beaten handily by the Spurs 90-116 at home on February 21st in its most recent meeting. The Clippers have proven they can win in San Antonio already this season, doing so by a final of 92-87 on November 19th.
The Spurs are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. San Antonio is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a S.U. win. The Spurs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. San Antonio is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on 1 days rest. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Bet the Clippers Friday.
Andre Gomes
Oklahoma City / Minnesota Over 202
Projected Line: 206 points
There are no doubts that Minnesota's offense is currently on their best run of the season and even though they have been playing without Kevin Love, the Wolves had offensive ratings of 119.96, 108.23, 120.83 and 112.64 on their last four games! You can see that they are playing great offense by just looking at their recent assists numbers: 28, 27, 27, 26 and 23 assists on their last five games! This offensive improvement is the result of their guards being in great form right now, especially Ricky Rubio. Also with Nikola Pekovic and Andrei Kirilenko back from injuries, the Wolves have now some inside scoring punch as well. The Wolves are playing at a faster tempo than they were earlier on the season, they are gambling on the defensive end in order to create turnovers and then pound their opponents with quick transition plays. This is why the Wolves are averaging 13.6 fast break points per game over their last 10 games, while their season average is just 11.9!
Minnesota will be a tough test for Thunder's defense that has been amazing on their last four games with an average defensive rating of 91.0! That's some awesome numbers, but I believe they are overrated if we look at Oklahoma City's recent opponents and their spots, while I don't believe that the Thunder's mindset for tonight will be to try to perform a defensive shutdown to the Wolves. In those four games, Oklahoma City faced Memphis in a pure half court battle, in a typical grind out contest involving the Grizzlies. Also note that Oklahoma City was on a back to back spot at the time, after having had another tough battle against Denver in the night before. Then, the Thunder had to travel to face a depleted Magic team that had no talent to score against them. Finally, on their last two games, they played Portland, who was playing their last game of a road trip, while they were also playing their fifth game in seven days, and Washington who was also in a bad spot and had John Wall super tired after playing 45 minutes against Memphis on his team's previous game. The Wolves are rested for tonight's game, they will play at home, so the Thunder will be finally facing an opponent that isn't dead tired or shorthanded!
On the other side, as good as the Wolves's offense has been playing, their defense is just flat terrible right now! They are constantly using undersized lineups and their perimeter players can't stop their opposing guards to dribble past them! Therefore, I expect a big game from Russell Westbrook tonight. Minnesota has been able to stop poor offensive teams like Phoenix or Detroit, but when they face decent offensive teams, their defensive struggles are quickly exposed. This is why the Lakers scored 120 points against them, while Chicago, Sacramento, Houston and Indiana also had recently good offensive performances against them with 104, 101, 108 and 107 points scored. On the last game between these two teams, played in Oklahoma City, the game ended with 238 points scored, in a battle where both teams scored more than 20 fast break points each! I expect something similar to happen in tonight's game and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Florida -12.5 over Florida Gulf Coast: FGCU has been a big and pleasant surprise this year, but I feel that the slight layoff may really hurt them here. Florida Coach Billy Donovan has had 5 days to prepare for this team and that is very important when facing an unknown. Also you have to believe that the Gators will really look to take this team apart here. A loss or even a close win may just be enough to take some recruits from the Gators in the near future. Florida really needs to take all the hype away from the Eagles and show that they are clearly the best team in the state of Florida. Now all that motivation is nothing if you don't have the talent to back it up. Well the Gators certainly do and their very tough defense should be able to keep the high flying Eagles under wraps in this one. FGCU has certainly surprised in the big dance, but through the year they also have two losses vs 12-18 Lipscomb, plus DD losses away from home vs Iowa Sate, duke, VCU and St John's. Both Georgetown and San Diego State may have overlooked this team a bit, but the Gators won't make that same mistake as the win easily in what should be more of a personal game for them.
Louisville -10.5 over Oregon: I know that Oregon was a much better team than their 12 seed would indicate and yes they surprised with wins over Oklahoma State and St Louis, but I just don't feel that they are close to the level of the Cardinals. The Ducks did win their first 2 games of the tourney, but they also turned the ball over a combined 36 times in those games. Now they get to face one of the better ball hawking teams in the nation and they won't be able to overcome those turnovers vs this squad. The Cardinals are 2nd in the nation in steals (11 per game) and should be able to pressure this Ducks squad into many mistakes. Louisville has a big edge on defense as they allow just 57.6 ppg overall and 60.2 ppg away from home, while the Ducks have allowed 63.2 ppg overall and 71.2 away from home. That is really important here because this will almost be like a true road game for the Ducks as this game is Indianapolis and the Cards will have a huge following for this one. Dana Altman has one a fine job for the Ducks, but I give the Cards the coaching edge with Pitino running the show. Just too many edges for Louisville in this one. The Have the coaching edge, a sizeable defensive edge and a bias home crowd. We also note that the Oregon offense is similar to Missouri's offense and the Cards beat them 84-61 earlier in the year. Louisville is the best team in the nation and they will not take this team lightly. I look for them to win by 17+ in this one.
Duke/ Michigan State Over 134: These teams met back in 2011 and 143 points were scored, while their 2010 meeting put up 163 points. Not sure we will get the latter, but these teams are more than capable of putting up at least 143, especially in what should be a physical uptempo game. Michigan State is not really a fast tempoed team, but they will run with some teams and you can bet that Duke will look to run in this one. The Blue Devils are 5th in the nation in offensive efficiency and 93rd in tempo, while averaging 77.8 ppg on the year. Defense has been a problem at times for Duke, especially away from home, where they allow 70 ppg on 47% shooting. Duke is very inconsistent on defense as they have allowed 61 or less in 5 of their last 10 games, but 68 or more in their other 5 games, including 83 to Maryland twice and 73 to Virginia, all on the road. Michigan State comes in allowing 58.9 ppg overall, but away from home they have allowed 64 ppg and I feel that this very good Duke offense will tag them for at least 70 here. Sparty should also be good for at least 70 in this one. They do average just 65.1 ppg away from home, bu they come in shooting very well overall (46.7% L5 games) and from long range (35.7% L5 games), plus hey hit 70+% of their FT's. In an uptempo game both teams should have plenty of scoring chances, which should net us at least 140 points here.
Jesse Schule
Los Angeles vs San Antonio
Pick: San Antonio 1st Half
The L.A. Clippers are looking to earn their 50th win of the season tonight, but it isn't going to be easy. The Clippers are playing their third straight road game, and their third game in four nights, and of all places to play, they are in the hostile environment of the AT&T Center in San Antonio.
They will be facing a well rested Spurs team that has played just twice in the past seven days, and has a home record of 31-4.
The Spurs won the last meeting in L.A. by a score of 116-90, and they didn't have much trouble with this Clippers team in last season's playoffs. The Clippers though are one of only four teams to have come away with a win in San Antonio this season, and you can rest assured the Spurs haven't forgotten about that. Coach Popovich and the Spurs will look to execute revenge, in a matchup of two teams that may meet in the playoffs.
Playing three games in four nights might not bode well for Chris Paul, who has been playing through injuries much of the season. Paul scored 33 points on 12-of-15 shooting Tuesday in Dallas, logging 39 minutes. He wasn't nearly as effective the following night, in a back to back situation. He was just 5-of-13 shooting for 16 points in 34 minutes. Another concern for the Clippers is guard Chauncey Billups, Mr. Big Shot left Wednesday's game in the third quarter with a groin strain, and may not play tonight.
The Spurs are well rested, with Tim Duncan playing particularly well of late, and the Clippers are not in a good spot here.
Take the Spurs for the first half.
Harry Bondi
LOUISVILLE (-10) over Oregon
Not only were we 2-0 on Thursday night for our Basketball "Steam Team", including a 4-Star winner on Syracuse, but we are also now 5-0 in the Big Dance here on the Free Pick Page after another EASY WINNER on Wichita State last night! As Harry wrote is his recent article, "7 Secrets to Beating March Madness," 84 of the 104 teams to make the Elite 8 over the last 13 years had a head coach who has taken his team to the Big Dance at least four times. That alone makes us lean to "Slick Rick" Pitino and the Cardinals. What puts us squarely "on" Louisville tonight is Pitino's utter dominance in the Sweet 16 where he is 10-0 in his career, winning all 10 games by double digits, winning five times by 21 points or more and twice by more than 30. That's an average margin of victory of 21.3 points! Lay the points as King Richard dominates again!
Teddy Covers
Denver at Brooklyn
Play: Denver
The Nets are fat and happy right now, winners of four out of five on their season long eight-game road trip including each of their last two. The Nuggets are on the other end of the spectrum, hungry and focused after losing back-to-back games following their franchise record 15 game winning streak.
Put those two factors together with this very reasonable pointspread and the case for Denver is perfectly clear. The Nets are not a team to trust when stepping up in class, riding a 4-9 ATS run against opponents that are above .500. And the Nuggets home court is as strong as any in the NBA – they’ve won 17 straight on this floor; 32-3 for the season, while riding an 11-3 ATS hot streak in their last 14 here at the Pepsi Center.
When the Nets beat the Nuggets in Brooklyn last month, Denver was playing without starters Danilo Gallinari and Andre Igoudala, both of whom are in excellent current form now. And it was ‘one of those nights’ for Brooklyn’s perimeter shooters, who combined to nail 16-of-27 from three point range. But with Joe Johnson not expected to suit up here, don’t expect a repeat offensive performance from the Nets tonight. Whether Ty Lawson suits up for the Nuggets or not, they’re still worthy of a wager!
Alf Musketa
Miami at New Orleans
Play: New Orleans
The question on everyone's mind for tonight’s NBA card is can the Miami Heat bounce back with a victory after snapping their 27-game winning streak against Chicago? More importantly, can they cover the pointspread? If they were at home, I would be more inclined to say yes, but a travel spot combined with a possible letdown, and maybe the start of resting players as the regular season winds down has us on the Hornets.
Miami head coach Erik Spolestra mentions, "Our goal is to win another NBA Championship, not break a 40 year old streak record." And with that in mind, plus a 16-game lead over Atlanta in the Southeast Division, and an 11-game lead over Indiana in the Eastern Conference, surely you cannot push your key starters each and every game. Amazingly despite the near-historic run, the Heat are still trying to hold on to the best record in the league as the Spurs are only two games back.
The Hornets are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now with solid wins at home versus Boston, Memphis and Denver – the Nuggets at the time were streaking with 15 straight wins. Miami's last three wins were against Detroit, Charlotte and Orlando; not exactly murderers row. The last time these two teams met late in 2012, Miami won at home 106-90, but a look back at that box score and post analysis shows that star forward Anthony Davis and guard Eric Gordon were both injured/absent for that game. Those two players and an up-tempo game will give the Heat all they can handle.