Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday March, 30

David Chan

Predators @ Red Wings
PICK: Under 5.5

The 44-25-8 Nashville Predators prowl into Detroit to take on the 46-26-5 Red Wings.

Pekka Rinne is scheduled to start opposite Ty Conklin between the pipes.

Three weeks ago the Preds beat the Wings 3-2 in Nashville.

The O/U is 1-3-1 the last five in this series.

Each team has clinched a playoff spot, and now each will be looking to secure home ice advantage in the first round.

Detroit sits just one point ahead of Nashville in the Western conference standings.

Each has been struggling with consistency down the stretch, as Nashville is 3-4-1 in its last eight, while Detroit is 3-7-2 in its last 12.

Nashville has struggled in Detroit this year, losing both games and is 2-3-1 in its last six on the road overall.

“They’ve got a good team, but I think we’ve got a good team. It’s going to be fun,” Red Wings coach Mike Babcock said about the challenge tonight.

Nashville lost 3-0 in St. Louis on Tuesday; Detroit lost 4-2 in Columbus on Tuesday.

Note that the Preds are likely to be without Jordin Tootoo, Martin Erat and Roman Josi because of injury.

It goes without saying that this important divisional contest will have a "playoff air" about it, and because of that, we can expect each side to risk life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes, as each desperately tries to secure the victory tonight; all signs point to a low-scoring affair!

Rob Vinciletti

Kings vs. Oilers
Play: Under 5

The Kings have solid angles supporting the Under here tonight. They have gone under the total in 21 of 25 games vs losing teams, 7 of 9 off a shut out win and 16 of 23 on the road is 5 or less. Edmonton has played under in 10 of 14 March games and 8 of 10 on Friday nights. Their last 5 home games have stayed under the total. In the series 8 of the last 10 have gone under the last 3 seasons including the last 5 here in Edmonton. The last 4 games have yielded no more than 4 goals. Look for this one to go under tonight.

Jimmy Boyd

Sacramento Kings +7

Utah is getting a little too much respect from odds makers here because of its strong home record and Sacramento's poor road mark. The Jazz have won 7 in a row at home but only 3 of those wins came by more than 7 points. The Kings have lost their last 5 on the road but none of those losses have come by more than 8 points, and the last 3 have come by an average of just 4.3 points. It is also worth noting that the Kings have either won or lost by 7 points or less in each of the last 6 meetings in this series. The Kings have really been undervalued on the road against teams with winning home records. As a result, they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home mark. The Kings are also 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series and 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Utah. We'll take the points.

Dave Price

Toronto Raptors +7.5

The Heat are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a win, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 0 days' rest. The Raptors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing with 1 day of rest, 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games and 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record. Toronto has been playing well at home and should benefit from Miami playing last night. Plus, I expect the Heat to be much more concerned with Sunday's contest at Boston. Miami likely does enough to get the "W" but I like the Raptors to cover the number.

Jeff Alexander

Portland Trail Blazers +8.5

The Clippers are being overvalued tonight following 3 consecutive wins and covers at home. The Clippers 0-8 ATS after playing 3 consecutive home games this season and 25-47 ATS in their last 72 games following 3 or more consecutive wins. The Clippers have won 2 of the season's first 3 meetings with the Blazers, but neither of those wins came by more than 5 points. We'll bet the Blazers.

Jim Feist

New Jersey Nets vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Golden State Warriors -3.5

New Jersey is a long way from home, 3,000 miles, and off a rare win. And they don't handle success well as the Nets are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a win, as well as 5-21-1 ATS in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. They take on a Golden State team that is home and undervalued by oddsmakers, on a 9-4 ATS run. And how important is home court when they meet? The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, plus the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Play Golden State.

Dave Cokin

Milwaukee Bucks vs Cleveland Cavaliers
Pick: Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks cannot afford to let any of their likely win opportunities get away if they want to stay in the playoff hunt, and this is clearly one of those spots. The Cavs are playing like they can't wait for the season to end, so I'll lay the points with Milwaukee this time.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Pittsburgh/ Washington State Over 127.5: This is the last game for both teams this year and you can bet they will go all out. Also both of the 1st 2 games have been extremely close and you can bet that another close one could be in store tonight and that should help us get those FT's at the end of this one. These teams put up just 110 points in the last one and that hasn't been the norm for Pittsburgh home games this year as those games have averaged 136.5 ppg on the year. Pittsburgh averages 71.5 ppg on 46.4% shooting at home overall, but in their last 4 at home they have put up 77.5 ppg on 53.2% shooting. The Cougars will most likely be without Mortum again, but they were without in the first game of this series and was able to score 67 points vs Pittsburgh, while during the CBI the Cougs have averaged 68.4 ppg overall and 71.3 ppg in their 3 CBI road games. Pitt Did allow just 53 points on Wednesday night, but they have still allowed 65 ppg at home on the year. The Cougars have allowed 69.6 ppg away from home this year and Pitt can clearly put up that much on their home floor. I do look for 68+ here from Pittsburgh, while the Cougars should play better offensively and put around 63 points of their own on the board. With FT's at the end I expect this one to hit at least the mid 130's. There is no tomorrow for both teams so if one is down by 8 or 9 the fouling game could start a bit earlier than you would normally see.

SPORTS WAGERS

Colorado +110 over CALGARY

Playoff lives are most certainly at stake here. The Avalanche are two points back of L.A for the eighth and final playoff spot and will have just two games left after this one. Calgary is three points back and will have three games left after this one. Both teams are up against it but a loss here and they can book tee-off times. Both teams are struggling. Colorado is 0-3-1 over its last four games but deserve better. In its last game, they dominated the Canucks in Vancouver but ran into a red-hot Roberto Luongo in a 1-0 defeat. Four of the Avs’ last five losses have been by a single goal. The Flames have one win over their past seven. Over that span they’ve scored one goal or less five times. In another game they scored twice. That’s six goals scored in six losses. In a desperate fight to make the playoffs, the Flames have recently lost to Edmonton, Columbus and Minnesota. That screams out to fade the Flames when they are favored. Play: Colorado +110 (Risking 2 units).

Montreal +210 over N.Y. RANGERS

With Carey Price in net and with a posted total of 5, the price here will dictate the play in what is expected to be a close game. The situation is a good one too for the Canadiens. New York returns home from an easy three-game trip to Toronto, Winnipeg and Minnesota. They struggled to beat a pathetic Leafs team in OT, they struggled to beat Minnesota and went on to beat a demoralized Jets club, picking up all six points. The Rangers are comfortably five points ahead of the Penguins for first overall with just five games remaining. The Rangers also have the Bruins on deck Sunday night. The Canadiens are dead last in the East but they have a game in hand on the Maple Leafs and they’re just three points behind them. No doubt, Montreal is motivated to finish ahead of Toronto. The Habs have won the last two games against the Rangers this season and outscored them 8-1. In a good spot and with confidence playing against the Rangers, we’ll gladly take our chances with this take-back. Play: Montreal +210 (Risking 2 units).

COLUMBUS +115 over Florida

The Panthers are having trouble closing out this thing. They were in a position to lock up a playoff spot after a five game-winning streak that ended in Philly on Feb 20. Since then, Florida has one win in five games against Carolina, Edmonton, the Islanders, Montreal and Minnesota. Against that set of five non-playoff teams, the Panthers couldn’t pull it off. Now they’ll play their third game in four days and tail-end of back-to-backs after last night’s 3-2 OT loss. Florida’s last four games have all gone into extra time and now the pressure picks up even more. The Jackets have split their last six games. They’re coming off a 4-2 home win over the Red Wings and they also have recent home victories over Los Angeles, Phoenix and Calgary. Rested, and in the role of the spoiler, the Jackets offer up some value against an exhausted guest that appears to be panicking. Play: Columbus +115 (Risking 2 units).

Dallas +142 over VANCOUVER

The Canucks have not felt the loss of Daniel Sedin in the loss column but they’ve certainly felt it on the scoreboard. Vancouver is coming off back-to-back 1-0 victories over Colorado and Los Angeles. They were soundly outplayed in both games but were saved by some solid goaltending. Over its last six games, Vancouver has scored seven goals, tallying one or less in four of them. You simply can’t expect to keep winning games at this level by scoring one or two goals. Dallas is in a serious battle for a playoff spot. It’s so close in the West that Dallas could finish first in the Pacific or they can miss the playoffs altogether, as one point separates four teams in that division. The Stars have scored 11 times over their past three games. They’re healthy, motivated and playing well while the Canucks, with a slew of key injuries are just trying to keep in together. At some point, the glue comes undone. Play: Dallas +142 (Risking 2 units).

WUNDERDOG

Portland at Los Angeles Clippers
Pick: Los Angeles Clippers -8.5

The Portland Trailblazers have lost their way on the road where they sit at just 7-18 on the season. They are an even worse 2-8 over their last 10, and one of the two wins was at Washington. The Clippers seem to be out of their funk which left them shaking their heads on the heels of a disappointing 7-12 run. They have gotten things back together, winning their last three by 12 points or more. The Blazers are just 5-16 ATS on the road in their last 21 vs. a winning team and 7-19 ATS in their last 26 following an ATS win. This has been a favorite-dominated series with the chalk an impressive 23-9 ATS in the last 32, and the Clippers have it going again. Play on Los Angeles.

Andy Iskoe

Dallas at Orlando
Play: Orlando

These teams meet for the only time this season and the spot clearly favors the hosts. Dallas played Thursday night at Miami in what was a revenge game for the defending champs who lost at home to the Heat when the season opened on Christmas Day.

Although Dallas recently enjoyed a four game winning streak since the All Star break the Mavericks are just 7-9 as they are in the midst of a wild scramble for Playoff positioning in the West. Orlando has been an enigma for much of the season with the status of star Dwight Howard hanging over the franchise. Now that Howard has committed to remain with the franchise for the short term, the Magic are able to focus on maintaining their current third position in the East.

Orlando has won 6 of its last 7 home games with 5 of the wins by double digits. In fact, 11 of their 18 home wins have been by double digits this season. The Magic should come favored by perhaps a couple of baskets and they should take advantage of the favorable scheduling spot against a Dallas team that had lost 8 of 10 road games starting this week.

SPORTS WAGERS

ATLANTA -3½ over New York

The Knicks’ stock is still soaring after they destroyed Orlando to run their record to 8-1 over past nine. They were a 2½-point pooch at home to the Magic because of injuries to Amar'e Stoudemire, Jeremy Lin and Jared Jeffries, yet they managed to win by 22. Atlanta is coming off an ugly 21-point loss against the Bulls. When you combine that with the Knicks recent success, we get to spot a deflated number on the Hawks in their own building. One could argue that if New York’s missing trio were in the lineup, this line wouldn’t be much different. Atlanta is a solid 16-8 at home. Al Horford remains out but otherwise the Hawks are healthy with a strong starting five. Furthermore, Atlanta has dropped all three games by double digits to New York this season, elevating Atlanta’s motivation sky high. This one sets up perfectly, as the Knicks are getting far too much credit for a team that sits one game above .500 on the season and is missing key personnel. Play: Atlanta -3½ (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).

Matt Fargo

Memphis @ Houston
PICK: Houston -2

After losing at Dallas on Wednesday, in a game it controlled in the beginning, the Rockets are tied with Utah and Denver for the final two playoff spots in the Western Conference. Houston has alternated wins and losses over the last four games with both of those defeats coming against the Mavericks. Houston is home for two games before a four-game roadtrip that starts out with games at the Bulls and Lakers so winning both of those games on their home floor is pretty important.

Memphis has won two straight games including a win at the Lakers which snapped a three-game losing streak and kept it in the hunt for the fourth seed in the upcoming playoffs. While closing in on that position is possible, falling the other way is just as possible as the Grizzlies are only a game and a half from that three-way tie for seventh and eighth and another three-game roadtrip is not what they need now. Memphis is just 10-14 on the highway this season.

The Rockets have been a solid home team all season long as they are 19-7 overall including wins in eight of their last 11 games and that includes two overtime defeats by two points apiece. Also included in that bunch in a win over Memphis and that made it six straight victories by the home team in this series including the first three meetings this season. This is where Memphis has struggled the most as it is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.

Houston meanwhile is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home games against teams with a losing road record and it has been solid coming off losses, going 13-9-1 ATS but most of those setbacks were on the road. When playing at home, the Rockets are 10-2 ATS coming off a loss and with a lot on the line, they will be extra geared up for this game. We are catching a very good number here as it is within only one possession which makes a stronger case for the home team.

Bryan Power

Nashville Predators @ Detroit Red Wings
PICK: Detroit Red Wings

This game may very well end up deciding which team earns home ice advantage in a potential first round playoff series. Currently, the Red Wings lead the Predators by just a single point as the clubs come into Friday in fourth and fifth place respectively in the Western Conference. Chicago (another Central Division team) is also in the mix at 95 points. At this point, the division title appears it will be heading the way of St. Louis.

My bigger question is what has happened to Detroit? After starting the month w/ a 6-0 blowout of Minnesota, they have gone just 3-7-2 the last 12 games, including a humiliating loss to last place Columbus Wednesday night as a -250 road favorite. (Had just beaten the Blue Jackets 7-2 two days prior).

Expect a much better effort from the Wings here. I still view them as far superior to Nashville with a goal differential of +48 compared to +17 for the Preds. They will also be playing with revenge for a 3-2 loss in Nashville earlier this month. The team remains a league-best 30-5-2 at home this season. Nashville is playing its third straight division game on the road, which could catch up with them.