Teddy Covers
Boston @ Minnesota
PICK: Boston
This is a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions right now. The Celtics have won five of their last six, surging up in the standings to tie the 76ers for first place in the Atlantic Division. They are getting healthier, with Ray Allen likely to return to the floor tonight. They are showing focus, as clearly evidenced by this Paul Pierce quote: “We kind of smell the end of the season, with the playoffs coming. This is the time of year you’ve got to step it up and get ready.” With nine consecutive wins in this series, and a complete domination of Kevin Love (10.5 points per game in four games against the Celtics, his worst average against any team), the Celtics are primed to keep up their winning ways tonight.
Meanwhile, the T-wolves have been devastated with key injuries, slumping down the stretch with eight losses in their last dozen games. They’ll fallen to 11th place in the Western Conference playoff picture since rookie sensation point guard Ricky Rubio got hurt. Backup point guard JJ Barea is hurt as well, no sure thing to suit up tonight or to be effective if he does suit up. Luke Ridnour has been playing major minutes at the point of late and he’s hurt too, suffering a painful groin injury. Ridnour: “It has been a little tougher because you don't have the two, three days in between that you might get. It's a lot of games quick. You just have to find a way to get through it…. You just pray that you feel good.”
There’s more! Minnesota forward Michael Beasley has a sore toe that kept him out of Wednesday’s game against the Bobcats. Starting center Nikola Pekovic has bone spurs in his right ankle, unlikely to suit up tonight. Rookie forward Derrick Williams has been awful since being forced into the starting lineup due to all the injuries. Backup point guard Malcolm Lee is struggling with his newfound minutes as well. There’s a big class difference between these two teams that simply isn’t reflected in this pointspread. Take the Celtics.
Steve Janus
New York Knicks +3.5
New York has won 8 of 9 since Mike Woodson replaced head coach Mike D'Antoni. Woodson has found a way to get the Knicks to play defense. Under D'antoni New York was allowing 96.5 ppg. With Woodson in charge, they are allowing just 86.0 ppg. Earlier in the season this would be an easy play on the Hawks at home, but I think the Knicks are showing the better value.
A big reason why I like fading Atlanta tonight, is this is a very tired group. The Hawks lost 77-98 at home to Chicago on Wednesday. That was their fifth game in six nights. I don't think one night off will have this team back at full strength.
I understand the Knicks will be playing without Amare Stoudemire and Jeremy Lin, but this is a much deeper team than a lot of people realize. Look for Carmelo Anthony to put this team on his shoulders and lead them to an outright win tonight.
Atlanta is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home, while the Knicks are a perfect 8-0 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Jack Jones
Houston Rockets -2
The Houston Rockets are in a three-way tie with the Utah Jazz and Denver Nuggets for the final two playoff spots in the Western Conference. It's safe to say that this team is going to show up highly-motivated tonight when they take on the Memphis Grizzlies at home.
Houston has been solid at home all season. The Rockets are 19-7 at home where they are scoring 100.7 points and allowing just 94.5 points/game. They'll be up against a Memphis team that is just 10-14 on the road this season. The Grizzlies are scoring a mere 91.6 points/game away from home.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the host has now won six straight meetings. The Rockets are in the midst of an 11-game home winning streak over the Grizzlies in this series. In fact, Houston has now won 26 of their last 31 home meetings with Memphis.
The Rockets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Grizzlies are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Houston is 10-2 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. Bet the Rockets Friday.
Black Widow
Milwaukee Bucks -4.5
The Milwaukee Bucks really cannot afford many more losses if they want to make the playoffs. Milwaukee is currently in 9th place in the Eastern Conference playoff race, just 2.5 games behind New York. The Bucks are 9-4 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall. You know this team is going to be giving it their all the rest of the way. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Cavaliers appear to have packed it in. Cleveland is 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall, losing each of their last four by 12 points or more. Take the Bucks and lay the points.