Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, March 4,2011

Carlo Campanella

Miami at San Antonio
Play: San Antonio

At 50-11, San Antonio owns the best record in the NBA, but when the experts talk about the Championship, teams like the Lakers, Celtics and Heat are mentioned before the Spurs. San Antonio will get their chance to prove they belong with those other names as they host Miami on Friday followed by the Lakers on Sunday. It will be their first meeting of the season against the newly remodeled Heat squad and these Spurs will not want to lose on their own court where they've only lost 2 games (28-2 SU) this year.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Cleveland at New York
Play: New York

Incredibly, this is a double revenge spot for the host Knicks, which is very unusual when the opponent is Cleveland. The Cavs season just keeps getting worse as leading scorer Jamison is now likely out for the year and after watching New York blow out New Orleans at home the other night, they certainly can do the same to the hopeless Cavs. Lay the points.

Rob Vinciletti

Brown vs. Cornell
Play: Cornell -6.5

Cornell has won 34 of 44 vs losing teams and should have no problem with a Brown team they beat 91-79 on the road earlier in the season. Cornell is 5-0 with 4 spread wins at home vs Brown the past few seasons. Brown is 0-4 and 1-3 ats as a road dog from 6 to 9 and 1-5 straight up and against the spread with home loss revenge. This year they have failed every time ats when they scored 80 or more in their previous game. Look for Cornell to get the win and cover tonight.

BEN BURNS

Toronto @ New Jersey
PICK: Toronto +3

As you're probably aware, this game is being played at London, England. The Nets are currently favored by a few points, which I feel provides us with solid value on the underdog.

The Raptors are off a fairly impressive win over the Hornets. They're now 4-3 ATS (3-4 SU) their last seven games.

The Nets did manage a narrow cover in their last game (I had them in that one) losing by only one vs. Phoenix. However, they've still lost six straight games. Note that they've only had two victories since the beginning of February and that they both came by five or fewer points.

Including a 6-point loss at Toronto earlier, the Nets are 1-8 ATS in nine divisional games. They're only 6-18 ATS against teams with a losing record.

With the Raptors at 7-2 SU the last nine games in the series, consider grabbing the points.

Dennis Macklin

Bobcats vs. Lakers
Play: Over 190½

Celtics and the Bobcats are the only NBA teams that own LT winning records over the Lakers. In fact, Charlotte 8-5 SU and 11-2 ATS vs champs since their inception. That said, not interested in either side here. The Bobcats would appear to be a natural choice but they've lost their L3 roadies by 40-12-14 points. The Lakers have had 72 hours to prepare for this one and the Bobcat defense (106 ppg L5) might just be the cure for recent Lakers shooting woes. First meeting Feb 14th was 109-89.

Jim Feist

Bobcats at Lakers
Pick: Bobcats

The Lakers don't always get up for playing lesser teams, as LA is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Charlotte is playing hard for new coach Paul Silas and they come off their worst performance of the season, a 120-80 loss at Denver. The Bobcats are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 vs. the NBA Pacific and the Lakers have a huge game on deck at San Antonio. Play the Bobcats.

Brent Brooks

Niagara -4

The Purple Eagles have been far more competitive over the last 4-5 weeks than they were thru Nov-Jan. Marist does not inspire great confidence - nor should it. Grabbing Anthony Nelson and the Purple Eagles for a 1* Free Play.

Cajun Sports

San Diego vs. Pepperdine
Play: Pepperdine -4

West Coast Conference tournament gets underway on Friday with first round matchups. Our complimentary selection comes from the Pepperdine – San Diego matchup that tips off at 11:25PM EST Friday night. San Diego posted a record of 6-23 SU this season and a money burning 8-18 against the spread. Their record away from home was just as bad going 1-14 straight up and 5-10 against the number. In those contests, they averaged 55.4 points per game while defensively they allowed opponents to torch them for 72.9 points per game. The Toreros inconsistency on offense reared its ugly head in their regular season finale when they scored just 31 points against Gonzaga who scored 68 in the win. Pepperdine is riding a losing streak of their own but they have been competitive in the four losses three of those came by a total of seven points and they are still 7-1 against the spread their last eight times to post. San Diego is 1-7 ATS off a home loss this season, 5-15 ATS off an embarrassing home loss scoring less than 60 points, 4-14 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more the last 3 seasons and 2-14 ATS after 3 straight games with 31 or less rebounds the last 3 seasons. Pepperdine is 7-1 ATS in road games after a conference game this season, 7-1 ATS off a loss against a conference rival this season and 13-4 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. We will back the better overall team laying a short number in the WCC Tournament. Take Pepperdine in an easy victory on Friday night.

EZWINNERS

New York Knicks -12

This is a revenge game for the Knicks who were upset by the Cavs in Cleveland last week 115-109. Cleveland went to the line 44 times in that game and out rebounded New York by 20 boards in that game but I expect things to be different tonight. Antawn Jamison had a 28 point and 13 rebound game in that contest but this will be the second game that the Cavs won't have Jamison's service. Jamison won't be in the lineup for this rematch due to a broken finger and the Cavaliers had a particularly difficult task in their first game without Jamison. They shot just 39.6 percent which was their worst effort since late January in a 109-99 loss Wednesday to the team with the best record in the league the San Antonio Spurs. The Knicks are coming off of a 107-88 beat down of the Hornets and I expect that strong play to continue here. Lay the points.

Patrick Webb

Towson vs. Drexel
Play: Towson +10½

Get your day started off right with an easy cover in the CAA tourney. 10.5 is too many points for offensively challenged Drexel in this match up on a neutral court. For sure Drexel is the stronger team, has the better bench and will enjoy a large rebounding edge in this match up. But Drexel has some fatal flaws that will allow Towson to hang in this game.

Several key trends for both teams lead to this being a close game- Drexel is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 as a favorite on a neutral court and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 on a neutral court. Towson is 7-2 in their last neutral site games as an underdog and the underdog (and Towson) is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams.

Towson lost by a combined 9 points in the two meetings between these clubs in CAA play this season. I like Towson's balanced scoring (4 players in double figures in conference play) and huge edge at the three point line as they own a 36.2% team 3pt.% to Drexel's dreadful 27.4%. Towson has three players at 36.8% or above to Drexel's best individual at 33.3%. Drexel is just a poor shooting team with a league low 42.2% eFG. Their shooting can keep both teams in the game. Each team in this game has a similar FTR to their opponents, and Drexel is a very poor free throw shooting team as well(65.1%).

Now Drexel has a huge edge in rebounding with three players above 7.8 boards per game who also hit the offensive glass for 2.9+ ORB per game. Towson struggles against every team grabbing only 63.6% of defensive rebound per game. Both teams take care of the ball very well and Towson actually has the better TO% playing at a faster pace.

Craig Trapp

Detroit vs. Valparaiso
Play: Valparaiso -2

Third times these teams square off this year and in both the first two Valpo won straight up and ATS. Its tough to beat a team three times they say but after DET knocked them out of Horizon tournament last year think VALPO will have extra motivation. VALPO wins by 8 as they are the better shooting and very rarely are out coached. Tight one early but late Valpo wins easily

Tom Freese

Indiana Pacers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: Dallas Mavericks -7½

Indiana is 27-33 straight up this year. The Pacers are 4-10-1 ATS their last 15 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. The Pacers are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games overall. Indiana is 1-6 ATS their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Pacers are 1-5 ATS their last 6 games as underdogs of 5.0 to 10.5 points. Dallas is 44-16 straight up this year. The Mavericks 23-8-1 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in his last game. Dallas is 7-1 ATS their last 8 games overall. The Mavs are 35-16-2 ATS their last 53 games off a straight up win. Dallas is 6-1 ATS their last 7 games as favorites and they are 7-2 ATS vs. Eastern Conference teams.

Lenny Del Genio

Wright State at Cleveland State
Prediction: Cleveland State

Cleveland State is a pretty good team out of the Horizon League, one of three teams that are probably NCAA Tournament worthy. Unfortunately, they came out on the short end of the stick in the three-way tiebreaker for first place in the conference and while WI-Milwaukee and Butler got double byes into the semifinals, the Vikings must win four times to automatically qualify for the Big Dance. The first game was not too difficult of a challenge as they downed IL-Chicago 73-59 at home on Tuesday. Now, it's onto a neutral court to face a Wright State team they beat twice this year and are 5-1 ATS L6 meetings. They won outright on the opponents' floor and crushed the Raiders by 19 in Cleveland. CSU is 8-2 ATS after allowing 60 points or less while Wright State is 2-8 ATS off a home win. Take Cleveland State.

Frank Jordan

Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play: San Antonio Spurs -2

Miami is coming off an awful loss at home where they were up 20 points at half time and 24 early into the second half only to blow the game and lose by three. Miami has had double digit leads in each of their last three losses and seemingly has had trouble finishing games. San Antonio maybe without Tony Parker, but are still 50-11 and the best home team in the league with a 28-2 record. Look for the Spurs to feast on the Heat as Miami is in the mists of another funk like they were early in the season. Play San Antonio