Teddy Covers
Cleveland @ New York
PICK: Cleveland +12.5
The Knicks have been a stellar pointspread team in nearly every role this year. New York has been an ATS powerhouse as an underdog. They’ve been a juggernaut as short favorites; winning the games they are supposed to win. But when the Knicks have been asked to win by big margins against weaker foes, they’ve been unable to do so. New York is 36-21-2 ATS for the season, but as favorites of seven points or more, Mike D’Antoni’s squad is a woeful 1-6 against the spread.
This is not an easy spot for New York. They traded away their starting point guard Ray Felton last week. His replacement, veteran Chauncey Billups, is not expected to suit up here. That leaves a starting backcourt duo of Toney Douglas and Landry Fields, not a duo I want to lay double digits with these days. The Knicks are relatively ‘fat and happy’ right now, thanks to their outright upset at Miami earlier this week, and their 19 point blowout against a flat Hornets squad in their last outing. This is anything but a ‘maximum intensity’ spot for the home favorite tonight.
Cleveland beat New York in outright fashion as eight point underdogs when these two teams met last week. They beat the Knicks outright when these two teams met in December, the Cavs only victory in a disastrous 37 game span. In fact, Cleveland has beaten New York in each of the last ten meetings between these two teams. And the Cavs are 4-1 ATS in five games since the All Star break, pulling off a pair of upsets while losing three times by ten points or less.
The Cavs won’t have Antawn Jamison on the floor tonight, but they are expected to see veteran point guard Baron Davis make his debut for Byron Scott’s squad tonight. Davis scored 16 points and had a season high 16 assists, leading his former team (the Clippers) to an outright upset win at Madison Square Garden last month. Anything close to that level of production from Davis tonight should help cash a Cavs ticket with relative ease. 2* Take Cleveland.
OC Dooley
Heat / Spurs Over 195.5
Amazingly San Antonio continues to have the best overall record in the league in part due to unprecedented offensive production as the team is putting up an average of 105 points per game at HOME where the squad currently is riding a franchise-high 21 game winning streak. One of the reasons why the Spurs have thrived is due to minimal injuries even though recently they lost veteran Tony Parker for about four weeks due to a calf injury. Back on Wednesday evening replacing Parker at the starting point guard slot, George Hill put up impressive numbers (22 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists) across the board. In his last 3 attempts against Miami, Hill has successfully connected on more than 60% of his shot opportunities from the field. Last night the Heat blew a massive 24-point lead in a contest against Orlando where both sides failed to crack the 100-point plateau. What is hidden in last night’s result was an efficient Miami offense in the opening half where they executed the half-court attack to perfection enroute to putting 63 points on the scoreboard. My research indicates that Miami star Dwayne Wade is averaging an NBA-BEST 29 points per game this season in “unrested” spots such as this. In addition the last 4 times he has visited San Antonio, LeBron James has averaged a hefty 29 points, 9 rebounds and 6 assists per contest. Tonight’s total has been kept in relative check as the Heat have actually played below the total at a stunning 22-3 clip in this series. But after suffering 3 consecutive spread setbacks, Miami long term is 14-4 OVER the total where the offense has put up 103 points per pop on the scoreboard