SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA
L.A. Lakers (46-16, 26-33-3 ATS) at Charlotte (28-31, 31-28 ATS)
The Lakers, looking to get back on the winning track a night after losing in Miami, continue their brief three-game road trip with a stop in Charlotte to take on the Bobcats.
Los Angeles fell 114-111 in overtime to the Heat on Thursday, getting upset as a five-point road chalk. Kobe Bryant had 39 points to pace the Lakers, but they allowed Dwyane Wade to go for 27 points and 14 assists as the Heat shot 53 percent from he field and 47 percent from beyond the three-point line. Los Angeles is 17-11 on the highway but just 11-16-1 ATS.
Charlotte has dropped five of six (both SU and ATS), including a 104-80 loss in Boston on Wednesday, never threatening to cover as a 4½-point underdog. The Bobcats have lost two of three at home, including Monday’s 89-84 setback to the Mavericks as a three-point favorite. Charlotte have struggled offensively lately, managing just 88.7 points per game on 41.8 percent shooting over their last six, while giving up 95.8 ppg (48.5 percent).
On Feb. 3, Los Angeles nipped the Bobcats 99-97, falling well short as a 10½-point home chalk. In last year’s meeting in Charlotte, the Bobcats pulled off a 94-84 upset as 5½-point underdogs. Charlotte has dominated this series lately, winning six of the last eight meetings SU and grabbing the cash in nine of the last 10. The Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in the last four battles, but the road team has cashed in five of the last six overall.
Los Angeles is on ATS slides of 1-6-1 overall, 3-8 on Friday, 1-5-1 as a favorite and 3-10-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Charlotte is riding positive pointspread streaks of 16-5-1 against Pacific Division teams and 4-1 on Friday, but it is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 after a day off and 1-5 ATS in its last six against Western Conference teams.
The Lakers have topped the total in five of six against Southeast Division teams, but they remain on “under” streaks of 6-2 on the road, 7-2 as a favorite, 5-1 as a road chalk and 4-2 against teams with a losing record. The Bobcats have stayed below the posted number in four of six overall and three of five against Western Conference teams, but they are on “over” runs of 8-3 on Friday, 34-16-1 against Pacific Division teams and 4-1 as a home ‘dog.
In this series, the “under” has been the play in four of the last six overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHARLOTTE
New Orleans (31-31, 30-31-1 ATS) at San Antonio (34-24, 27-30-1 ATS)
The Hornets head to the AT&T Center in San Antonio looking to snap a three-game losing streak while the Spurs are seeking their third straight victory as these Southwest Division rivals hook up for the second time in four days.
New Orleans has dropped five of six (2-3-1 ATS) overall, including a 104-100 home loss to Memphis on Wednesday, failing as a 2½-point favorite. Both teams shot the ball well but the Hornets were outrebounded 39-34. They are just 11-20 on the highway this season, but they’ve cashed in 16 of the 21 road games.
San Antonio has won two straight (1-1 ATS), most recently scoring a 106-92 road win against these Hornets in New Orleans on Monday, cashing as a three-point road chalk. The Spurs had six players score in double digits with George Hill leading the way with 23 points and Tim Duncan adding 22 points and nine rebounds. Gregg Popovich’s troops are 21-10 in front of the home fans (16-14-1 ATS).
With Monday’s win and cover, the Spurs have taken the last four in this series (3-1 ATS) and seven of the last 10. San Antonio has won all three this season, including a 113-96 home win back on Oct. 28, easily cashing as a 9½-point favorite. The home team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 series clashes, with the Spurs taking cashing in six of the last seven inside the AT&T Center.
New Orleans is on ATS slides of 3-13 on Friday and 1-5-1 against Western Conference teams, but it is on positive pointspread streaks of 7-1-1 on the road, 6-1-1 after a day off, 13-5-1 as a ‘dog and 9-1-1 on the road against teams with winning home records. San Antonio is on several ATS skids, including 2-5 overall, 3-8 as a favorite, 1-5 on Friday, 0-4 after three or more days off and 1-6 after a straight-up win.
For the Hornets, the over is on runs of 4-1 overall, 8-1 on the road, 8-3 against Western Conference teams, 9-4 as an underdog, 10-2 after a straight-up loss and 7-1 on the road against teams with winning home records. The Spurs are also on several “over” streaks, including 5-1 overall (3-0 last three), 4-0 against Southwest Division rivals and 5-1 as a chalk.
Finally, the over has been the play in this rivalry in three of the last four meetings overall and five of the seven clashes in San Antonio.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
MISSOURI VALLEY TOURNAMENT
(at St. Louis, Mo.)
Missouri State (20-11, 15-16 ATS) vs. Wichita State (23-8, 11-12-1 ATS)
Wichita State shoots for its fifth straight victory over the Bears – including the third this season – when these teams clash in the quarterfinals of the Missouri Valley Conference tournament at the Scottrade Center.
Missouri State advanced with last night’s 52-46 victory over Evansville, falling short as a 9½-point favorite. The Bears have won three of their last four games following a 5-9 SU tumble, all in conference. However, they’ve been a disaster at the betting window lately, going 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games.
The Shockers closed out regular-season play with Saturday’s 76-55 destruction of Southern Illinois, easily cashing as a 7½-point home favorite to finish second in the league standings and earn a first-round bye. With the win over Southern Illinois, Wichita State snapped a two-game SU and six-game ATS losing skid. The Shockers started the season 19-4 but split their final eight games. Also, they’ve lost four straight (1-3 ATS) and six of seven (1-5-1 ATS) on the highway.
Wichita State swept the season series from the Bears by a total of five points, winning 65-62 as a 2½-point road underdog on Jan. 6 and 66-64 as a seven-point home chalk on Valentine’s Day. The Shockers are 4-0 (2-2 ATS) going back to last February, including a 59-46 rout as a four-point favorite in the quarterfinals of last year’s MVC tourney.
Missouri State has cashed in four of its last five games after a non-cover, but is otherwise in ATS funks of 16-34-2 in conference play and 0-5 at neutral sites. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the Bears’ last seven games and 11-4 ATS in their last 15. Meanwhile, the Shockers have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 games, going 1-6 ATS in their last seven as a favorite.
The under is 5-0 in the Bears’ last four neutral-site contests and 5-0 in their last five after a non-cover. The under is also 6-3 in Wichita’s last nine games, including 4-1 away from home. Finally, the last three meetings in this rivalry going back to last season’s MVC tourney contest have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Indiana State (17-13, 16-11 ATS) at Illinois State (21-9, 13-13 ATS)
Indiana State battles the Redbirds for the second time in eight days, this time in the quarterfinals of the Missouri Valley tournament.
The Sycamores got dumped 75-58 at Illinois State as a 10-point underdog last Thursday, but rebounded with Saturday’s 75-72 overtime victory over Missouri State as a one-point road underdog. Indiana State is 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games, but it has lost four straight away from home (2-2 ATS). Indiana State finished in a tie for fifth in the Missouri Valley with a .500 league record in 18 games (11-7 ATS).
Illinois State ran its winning streak to six in a row with last week’s rout of Indiana State, but the run ended Saturday with a 61-55 loss at first-place Northern Iowa. However, the Redbirds covered as a 7½-point road pup, so they’ve rebounded from a 4-8 ATS funk to cash in each of their last three games. Illinois State finished third in the league standings at 11-7 (10-8 ATS), one game ahead of Creighton and one game behind Wichita State.
These teams split their two battles this season, with Indiana State prevailing 72-65 as a two-point home underdog on Feb. 3. With last Thursday’s victory at home, the Redbirds snapped a four-game SU and six-game ATS streak to the Sycamores in this rivalry. Also, the ‘dog had been on an 8-0 ATS roll prior to last week’s clash.
Indiana State is on pointspread upticks of 8-2 overall, 19-7 within the Missouri Valley, 4-1 at neutral sites, 5-0 after a SU victory and 6-1 against winning teams. The Redbirds are on ATS runs of 4-1 overall (all versus winning teams), but the underdog has covered in six of their last seven games, the only exception being last week’s contest against the Sycamores.
Indiana State is on “over” surges of 4-1 overall, 4-0 in conference and 5-0 versus winning teams, while Illinois State has topped the total in five of six after a spread-cover and four of five following a SU victory. However, the under is 10-3 in the Redbirds’ last 13 neutral-site outings and 4-1 in their last five on Friday.
Finally, these teams have topped the total in each of their last seven series meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANA STATE
Marc Lawrence
Harvard at Pennsylvania
Play: Pennsylvania
Penn hosts Harvard in this Ivy League clash Friday night knowing they are an eye-popping 17-1 SU as a host in this series. They are also 3-0 SU and ATS when playing with same season revenge against the Crimson. With Harvard of a 29-point win and Penn of a 20-point loss, we'll stay at home with the Quakers here this evening.
BIG AL
Sacramento @ Dallas
PICK: Sacramento
The Mavericks have now won nine straight games, after downing Minnesota 112-109 in Texas on Wednesday night. However, the Timberwolves did everything BUT win that game, as they outrebounded the Mavs 49-30, and shot 53% from the floor, yet lost because of 22 turnovers (many of them unforced). Of course, that narrow win won't surprise folks who have followed the Mavericks' pointspread history this season. Dating back to November, Dallas is now on an 0-21 ATS RUN as a home favorite of -4.5 points or more!!! As the old saying goes, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." And I'm not going to step in front of that 0-21 angle. Let's fade Dallas once again as a large home favorite, and play on Sacramento, who seeks its 5th straight cover tonight. Take the Kings.
DAVID CHAN
Milwaukee @ Washington
PICK: Wizards +4.5.
This one is by-the-numbers. These teams played Wednesday. Milwaukee was a 10-point favorite and won by 13. Subtract 7 points off the number for the flip in homecourt advantage, and the Bucks should be favored by 3 here, not 4.5.
Here’s another reason why the number should be closer to 2 than 4: for all the Bucks’ success ATS this year, and they’ve had plenty, the team is a tepid 12-20 SU away from home. Washington leads the season series 2-1. With these teams so recently reacquainted, it’s going to be tough for the Bucks to win. The cover is the pick, but don’t be shocked if the Wizards win SU.
Jim Feist
Oklahoma City vs. La Clippers
Play: Oklahoma City -5
This is a classic matchup of a motivated, overachieving team against one that is in cruise control down the stretch. Oklahoma City continues to play well, winning 12 of 15 games. Meanwhile, the LA Clippers continue to be a front for a basketball team. They were cited by their own coach for lack of effort in 127-101 loss to Suns the last game. "I thought some of us started feeling sorry for ourselves, and that bothered me," Coach Kim Hughes said. "I didn't think we ran back on defense at all." They are on a 1-4 SU/ATS run and a 6-11 ATS run. Play the Oklahoma City Thunder.
DUNKEL INDEX
Oklahoma City at LA Clippers
The Thunder look to bounce back from their 119-90 loss at Denver and build on their 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 games following a SU loss by more than 10 points. Oklahoma City is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-5)
Game 801-802: Milwaukee at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 123.191; Washington 116.814
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 6 1/2; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 4 1/2; 190 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-4 1/2); Over
Game 803-804: LA Lakers at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 122.132; Charlotte 119.139
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 3; 192
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 3 1/2; 190
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+3 1/2); Over
Game 805-806: Detroit at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 113.973; Cleveland 125.223
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 11 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 13; 199
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+13); Under
Game 807-808: New York at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: New York 112.295; Toronto 114.971
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 2 1/2; 217
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 809-810: Boston at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 119.159; Philadelphia 112.745
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 6 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 6; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-6); Under
Game 811-812: Golden State at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 112.781; Atlanta 127.079
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 14 1/2; 211
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 13; 215
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-13); Under
Game 813-814: Orlando at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 125.829; New Jersey 112.423
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 13 1/2; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 10; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-10); Under
Game 815-816: Sacramento at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 112.836; Dallas 125.188
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 12 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 817-818: Indiana at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 114.246; Denver 125.839
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 11 1/2; 224
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 10; 218
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-10); Over
Game 819-820: New Orleans at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 114.967; San Antonio 124.099
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 9; 197
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 8; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-8); Under
Game 821-822: Oklahoma City at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 121.671; LA Clippers 114.073
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 7 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 5; 201
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-5); Under
NCAAB
Columbia at Yale
The Bulldogs look to bounce back from their loss at Harvard and build on their 13-3 ATS record following a SU loss. Yale is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulldogs favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Yale (-6)
Game 823-824: Fordham at Duquesne
Dunkel Ratings: Fordham 40.431; Duquesne 59.076
Dunkel Line: Duquesne by 181/2
Vegas Line: Duquesne by 19 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fordham (+19 1/2)
Game 825-826: Harvard at Pennsylvania
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 58.074; Pennsylvania 47.159
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 11
Vegas Line: Harvard by 8
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (-8)
Game 827-828: Dartmouth at Princeton
Dunkel Ratings: Dartmouth 39.529; Princeton 57.819
Dunkel Line: Princeton by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Princeton by 19 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dartmouth (+19 1/2)
Game 829-830: Cornell at Brown
Dunkel Ratings: Cornell 60.461; Brown 44.731
Dunkel Line: Cornell by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Cornell by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cornell (-13 1/2)
Game 831-832: Columbia at Yale
Dunkel Ratings: Columbia 41.869; Yale 50.353
Dunkel Line: Yale by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Yale by 6
Dunkel Pick: Yale (-6)
Game 833-834: Kent State at Akron
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 60.275; Akron 59.878
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Akron by 3
Dunkel Pick: Kent State (+3)
Game 835-836: St. John's at DePaul
Dunkel Ratings: St. John's 66.037; DePaul 59.893
Dunkel Line: St. John's by 6
Vegas Line: St. John's by 3
Dunkel Pick: St. John's (-3)
Game 837-838: UC-Riverside at Long Beach State
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Riverside 49.614; Long Beach State 58.726
Dunkel Line: Long Beach State by 9
Vegas Line: Long Beach State by 8
Dunkel Pick: Long Beach State (-8)
Game 839-840: NC Wilmington vs. Towson
Dunkel Ratings: NC Wilmington 48.932; Towson 44.658
Dunkel Line: NC Wilmington by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: NC Wilmington by 1
Dunkel Pick: NC Wilmington (-1)
Game 841-842: Delaware vs. VCU
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 48.599; VCU 62.864
Dunkel Line: VCU by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: VCU by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Delaware (+16 1/2)
Game 843-844: Georgia State vs. Hofstra
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia State 51.285; Hofstra 62.194
Dunkel Line: Hofstra by 11
Vegas Line: Hofstra by 6
Dunkel Pick: Hofstra (-6)
Game 845-846: James Madison vs. Drexel
Dunkel Ratings: James Madison 49.498; Drexel 57.894
Dunkel Line: Drexel by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Drexel by 6
Dunkel Pick: Drexel (-6)
Game 847-848: Drake vs. Northern Iowa
Dunkel Ratings: Drake 54.887; Northern Iowa 65.318
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 849-850: Bradley vs. Creighton
Dunkel Ratings: Bradley 58.876; Creighton 60.806
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 2
Vegas Line: Creighton by 4
Dunkel Pick: Bradley (+4)
Game 851-852: Missouri State vs. Wichita State
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri State 59.692; Wichita State 61.098
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 853-854: Indiana State vs. Illinois State
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana State 56.697; Illinois State 62.226
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois State by 6
Dunkel Pick: Indiana State (+6)
Game 855-856: Detroit vs. WI-Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 57.029; WI-Green Bay 55.598
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit by 1
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-1)
Game 857-858: Cleveland State vs. WI-Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland State 55.276; WI-Milwaukee 55.816
Dunkel Line: WI-Milwaukee by 1
Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: WI-Milwaukee (+1 1/2)
Game 859-860: Elon vs. Davidson
Dunkel Ratings: Elon 46.543; Davidson 50.537
Dunkel Line: Davidson by 4
Vegas Line: Davidson by 9
Dunkel Pick: Elon (+9)
Game 861-862: Furman vs. NC Greensboro
Dunkel Ratings: Furman 48.581; NC Greensboro 45.286
Dunkel Line: Furman by 3
Vegas Line: Furman by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Furman (-2 1/2)
Game 863-864: Samford vs. The Citadel
Dunkel Ratings: Samford 45.291; The Citadel 54.381
Dunkel Line: The Citadel by 9
Vegas Line: The Citadel by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: The Citadel (-2 1/2)
Game 865-866: Georgia Southern vs. Chattanooga
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Southern 43.522; Chattanooga 45.634
Dunkel Line: Chattanooga by 2
Vegas Line: Chattanooga by 1
Dunkel Pick: Chattanooga (-1)
Game 867-868: Eastern Illinois vs. Murray State
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Illinois 52.713; Murray State 63.348
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Murray State by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Illinois (+12 1/2)
Game 869-870: Tennessee Tech at Morehead State
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee Tech 47.334; Morehead State 57.217
Dunkel Line: Morehead State by 10
Vegas Line: Morehead State by 12
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee Tech (+12)
Game 871-872: Manhattan vs. Loyola-MD
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 49.520; Loyola-MD 50.334
Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 1
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 2
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (+2)
Game 873-874: Marist vs. Canisius
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 38.972; Canisius 49.109
Dunkel Line: Canisius by 10
Vegas Line: Canisius by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marist (+11 1/2)
Game 875-876: Pepperdine vs. Loyola-Marymount
Dunkel Ratings: Pepperdine 42.396; Loyola-Marymount 58.547
Dunkel Line: Loyola-Marymount by 16
Vegas Line: Loyola-Marymount by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Marymount (-9 1/2)
Game 877-878: Santa Clara vs. San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Santa Clara 49.957; San Diego 51.880
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2
Vegas Line: San Diego by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Santa Clara (+3 1/2)
Game 879-880: Kennesaw State vs. East Tennessee State
Dunkel Ratings: Kennesaw State 40.584; East Tennessee State 52.867
Dunkel Line: East Tennessee State by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 881-882: Jacksonville at Mercer
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 55.329; Mercer 52.491
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 3
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NHL
Philadelphia at Buffalo
The Flyers look to take advantage of a Buffalo team that is 1-4 in its last 5 home games. Philadelphia is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Flyers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+105)
Game 51-52: Philadelphia at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.427; Buffalo 10.578
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+105); Over
Game 53-54: Nashville at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 11.670; Detroit 12.178
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-180); Under
Game 55-56: Vancouver at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 12.442; Chicago 11.092
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (+145); Over
Game 57-58: Minnesota at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.409; Edmonton 11.542
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+160); Over
Game 59-60: New Jersey at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.644; Calgary 11.994
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-110); 5
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-110); Under
Wunderdog
NC Wilmington vs. Towson
Play: Under 143
This is a matchup of teams that have each lost 20 or more games, with an opportunity to extend their season. It should present an intensity that translates to defense. These teams did play a game in Wilmington that produced just 111 points, and I see this one playing out in similar fashion. NC Wilmington has played four straight to the UNDER as a favorite, and Towson State, in neutral-site games has delivered a nifty 9-2 mark to the UNDER in their last 11. Each team here thinks that they can win this one, and that will mean a step-up on the defensive end. I like the UNDER here.
Nelly
Detroit + over Cleveland
Cleveland has covered in four consecutive games after a run of four straight ATS losses including three S/U losses. The Cavaliers appear to be finding their comfort zone again with the shuffled roster but keep in mind the wins this week came against two of the worst teams in the NBA. Cleveland is just 2-4 ATS in the past six home games and the Cavaliers are just 13-17 ATS at home for the season. With O’Neal, Gibson, and West likely out for this game the Cavaliers lack depth and despite the gross underachievement from the Pistons this season they have played tough in some of the bigger games. Recently the Pistons lost by just five to Boston and Denver while also defeating San Antonio and a 24-point loss to New York on Wednesday should grab the attention of the team. The favorite has had a lot of success in this series but this is by far the highest line in the recent history of this series and trend players should also notice that this generally is lower scoring match-up, making this double-digit spread even more valuable. Detroit has had some recent defensive lapses but Chris Wilcox and Ben Wallace are expected to be back in action and can make a big difference in the paint. The Pistons still have a talented scoring nucleus and the Cavaliers will continue to be overvalued at home, facing a tricky spot here back at home coming off two easy wins.
SPORTS WAGERS
Nashville +1.97 over DETROIT
The Red Wings reputation and popularity among the betting public has made this one of the biggest overlays of the season. Sure, the Preds will play its third game in four days but winning takes a lot less out of you than losing. The Preds are coming off back-to-back wins after the break and that includes a 4-2 win last night over L.A., one of the hottest clubs in the league. The Preds continue to outperform expectations and they also did very well at the deadline, acquiring Dustin Boyd from Calgary and Denis Grebeshkov from Edmonton both in exchange for draft picks. With Grebeshkov, Suter and Weber back there the Preds just got a whole lot better. Grebeshkov can log big minutes, he’s tough and he’s very talented too. The Preds defense is wickedly good. Meanwhile, most expect the Red Wings to turn it on any time now and make a playoff push. Thing is, they’ve been expected to do that for weeks and it just isn’t happening. The Red Wings have lost five of its last seven games and now Jimmy Howard is beginning to labor. Howard was yanked in the Red Wings first game back after the break after allowing four goals on 20 shots. This is such a huge game for the Preds, as they’re in seventh spot with 75 points and lead the eighth-place Red Wings by five. A win here puts them up seven points and really separates them from being on the bubble. Big, big overlay. Play: Nashville +1.97 (Risking 2 units).
BUFFALO –1½ +2.55 over Philadelphia
It’s worth the shot of laying 1½ pucks and taking back this gigantic tag because the Sabres are about to pop. First, they have Ryan Miller in net and he alone makes the Sabres tough to beat. Secondly, when these two meet they always score a ton of goals for some unexplainable reason and should the Sabres win, there’s a good chance it’ll be by two or more. In fact, in the last 10 games these two have played against one another, they’ve combined to score seven goals or more in seven of the 10 games. Philly is coming off a 7-4 loss in Florida and allowed an alarming 43 shots on net and a ton of scoring chances to a team that was struggling miserably to not only create chances but to score as well. They Flyers beat the Lightning 7-2 in its first game back on Tuesday but that score in a bit misleading, as it was 2-2 in the third before Nittymaki had a meltdown. Meanwhile, the Sabres fell to the Pens 3-2 upon its return to action and followed that up with a 3-1 loss to the Caps. They also played San Jose in the last game before the break and beat them 3-1. Buffalo allowed a total of seven goals to Pittsburgh, Washington and San Jose over its last three games and holding that trio to seven goals is very impressive indeed. They’ll take a step down in class now and face a team that is questionable in goal and very overrated. Incidentally, the Sabres made a great deal at the deadline, acquiring a guy that is tough and can produce in Raffi Torres from the Jackets in exchange for Nathan Paetsch. Play: Buffalo –1½ +2.55 (Risking 2 units).
ROCKETMAN
Georgia State vs Hofstra
Play: Georgia State +6
Georgia State is 9-2 ATS since 1997 in March. Georgia State is 18-5 ATS last 3 years revenging a road loss vs an opponent. Georgia State is 6-0 ATS since 1997 in 1st round tournament games. Georgia State is 7-0 ATS since 1997 in conference tournament games. Hofstra is 1-7 ATS last 3 years when playing with 5 or 6 days rest. Georgia State is allowing only 63.6 points per game overall and 62.6 points per game on the road this year. Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as an underdog. Panthers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games. Panthers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss. Pride are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Friday games. Pride are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as a favorite. We'll recommend a small play on Georgia State tonight!
VEGAS EXPERTS
LA Lakers at Charlotte Bobcats
Perhaps no team gives the Lakers more trouble than the Charlotte Bobcats. You read that right. Charlotte is 9-2 ATS all-time vs. LA, including an easy cover earlier in the year as 9.5-point underdogs. They beat them outright the three times before that, including a 10-point victory in the Queen City last year. The Bobcats are 29-13 ATS after scoring 80 points or less in their previous game.
Play on: Charlotte
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Philadelphia 76ers +6
Off back-to-back blowout defeats to Orlando and Atlanta, look for the 76ers to give the Celtics all they want and more this evening. Philly always seems to play the Celtics tough. In fact, 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams have been decided by 3 or fewer points. I also like that plays against any team after a blowout win by 15 points or more against an opponent after 2 straight blowout losses by 15 points or more are 34-13 ATS the last 5 seasons. I also like the fact that Boston is only 6-18 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons. It is also important to note that the Celtics are only 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the home dog tonight.
Tony George
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Charlotte Bobcats
Play: LA Lakers -3.5
Trends seem to reverse with NBA teams and while I like going against a team off an OT loss, I expect the Lakers to rebound tonight. They are 1-6-1 ATS their last 8 games. The mismatch at the forward position here is in favor of the Lakers and I think Bynum gets the better of Ratliff at the post, and Kobe will do his thing. He had 39 last night in a loss at Miami. LA scoring 104 ppg their last 5 games and Charlotte scoring 88 in the same time frame. Too much offense and no doubt a pissed off bunch from LA that needs a win here on the road.
Rob Vinciletti
Santa Clara vs. San Diego
Play: Santa Clara +3.5
Santa Clara is a solid 20-4 vs teams who score less than 65 points per game in the second half of the season the past 13 years and has cashed 4 of 5 times when playing off 3 losses. San Diego is just 3-10 ats in conference and 1-6 ats after scoring 60 or less in their last game. Look for Santa Clara to get the cash tonight as a live dog.
Tom Freese
St. Johns at DePaul
Play: St. Johns
DePaul is 8-21 overall and 1-16 in Conference Play. Guard Will Walker scores 16.2 points a game. Center Mac Koshwal scores 16.2 points a and 10.1 rebounds a game. No other player on the team scores more than 6.6 points a game. The Demon Deacons score 60.7 points a game and they shoot 58% from the foul line. DePaul is 7-22 ATS their last 29 home games and they are 3-13 ATS their last 16 games as home underdogs of 0.5 to 6.5 points. Saint Johns is 15-14 overall and 7-7 in League Play. Forward D.J. Kennedy scores 14.7 points and 6.1 rebounds a game. Guard Dwight Hardy scores 10.5 points a game while shooting 38% from behind the arc. Guard Paris Horne scores 8.7 points a game. The Red Storm scores 67 points a game. St John's is 7-0 ATS their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and they are 4-1 ATS their last 5 meetings with the Blue Demons. PLAY ON SAINT JOHNS -