BEN BURNS
Minnesota @ Edmonton
PICK: Edmonton
The Wild beat the Oilers in both meetings at Minnesota this season. However, the Oilers won the lone meeting here at Edmonton. Including that victory (5-2 on 10/16) the Oilers are 5-1 the last six times that they hosted the Wild. While they've admittedly been pretty brutal this season, I feel that they're providing excellent value tonight, both on the money-line but also on the (+1.5) puck-line.
The reason I mention the puck-line option is that both teams have shown a tendency to play quite a few 1-goal games. Edmonton lost its last game by a score of 5-2. However, that was against one of the best teams (Chicago) in the league and that game was tied 2-2 after two periods. Prior to that, the Oilers had seen three of their previous four games decided by one goal.
As for the Wild, they've seen three of their past five games decided by a single goal.
I already mentioned that the Oilers won 5-2 when they hosted the Wild earlier. However, the previous two series meetings, here at Edmonton, had both been decided by a single goal - and the previous eight games here had all been decided by two or less. Consider Edmonton at +1.5 goals.
John Fisher
Cornell vs. Brown
Play: Cornell -13.5
Look for the BIG RED of CORNELL to cruise to a 14+ point victory. Cornell has proven itself as the elite TEAM in the IVY league. Some might not know that they went toe to toe with Kansas. Brown has lost by DDs and Cornell has won by DDs several times so the 13 Plus points should not be too much too over come. C Foote had his way against Brown last time they played each other. He almost had a double double and Brown had no answer for Cornell's inside outside game. Cornell won by 14 last time these teams played. Cornell will duplicate this again. Cornell 74 Brown 56 2 STAR Cornell John THE HOOK Fisher The Humble Producer
Sam Martin
Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs continue their dominant run since the loss of Shaq, most recently with a 19-point win in New Jersey on Wednesday night. That was their fifth straight win, with all victories coming by at least 8 points, and three of those wins coming by at least 19 points. Detroit has lost five straight, and were just run out of the building against a bad Knicks team when they allowed 128 points in the 24-point loss. It won?t get any easier on the road against a Cavs team that has put up scores of 126, 124 and 111 in their last three games. Cavs roll to another blowout! 5* Play on Cleveland.
Jimmy the Moose
Philadelphia Flyers vs. Buffalo Sabres
Play: Over 5½
The Philadelphia Flyers have played over the total in their last 3 games. The total combined score in all of their last 3 games was at least 8. The over is 17-8 in the Flyers last 25 games vs. a team from the Northeast Division. Philadelphia failed to get a goalie at the trade deadling so look for Leighton to carry the load between the pipes and he's yet to prove he's a legitimate number one goalie. Tonight's game will be Buffalo's 3rd game in 4 nights and in the last 5 times they have been in this situation the over is 4-1. The over is 5-2-2 in the Sabres last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The over is 5-2 in the Flyers last 7 trips to Buffalo. In the last 21 meetings between the clubs the over is 15-5-1. Play the over.
Insider Angles
The Yale Bulldogs defeated the Columbia Lions by 15 points in Manhattan last month, and we see no reason why the Bulldogs should not win handily again in this rematch at home in Connecticut.
After all, the Lions are on an 0-4 run against the spread, they are just 2-5 straight up in their last seven games overall and they are just 3-10 straight up on the road this season while losing by nearly eight points per game. While they are a decent three-point shooting team, they are in big trouble if those perimeter shots are not falling.
This is because Columbia ranks 329 out of 347 Division I schools in two-point field goal percentage at a horrible 42.4 percent, which is the primary reason the Lions rank 306 in adjusted offensive efficiency according to the Pomeroy Ratings, at just .905 points per possession.
The Bulldogs are finally returning home after a four-game road trip where they went 1-3 both SU and ATS. They did cover their last two home games though, and they beat Columbia by eight points the last time these teams met in New Haven. Also, if this becomes a free throw contest late, Yale ranks 58 in the country in foul shooting at 72.5 percent, so they should be able to pad their lead if necessary.
Look for the Bulldogs to post their second double-digit win over the Lions this season on Friday night.
NCAA Friday Pick: Yale -6
EZWINNERS
Milwaukee Bucks -4.5
The Bucks are playing well. Milwaukee is 8-2 straight up and 9-1 against the spread in their last ten games and they are tied with Chicago for the sixth best record in the Eastern Conference. This is the second game of a home and home series against the Wizards. Milwaukee knocked off Washington by thirteen points on Wednesday night and I expect them to pick up the win here as well. The Bucks are on a 21-5 run against the spread in their last twenty six games overall and they are 5-1 against the spread in the last six visits to Washington. Look for Milwaukee's rookie guard Brandon Jennings to get his offense back on track tonight. Lay the points.
JrTips
Carmelo Anthony is finally healthy as he and the Nuggets host the Indiana Pacers tonight. Denver blew out the Thunder 119-90 on Wednesday as Anthony finished with 30 points in 32 minutes while holding Kevin Durant to 19 points. Denver defeated the Pacers 111-93 on Nov. 3rd with Anthony scoring 25 points in 29 minutes while the Pacers have lost four straight on the road, including 102-79 to Portland on Wednesday as the Pacers were held to their fewest total since Jan. 23rd. The Pacers have dropped nine of 11 and averaged 92.5 points in their last four road games while losing by double digits in the last three. This is a simple mismatch and the Pacers will not be able to keep with the Nuggets who can score at will in the mile high altitude. The Nuggets starters sat out the 4 th quarter and will be well rested with a healthy Mello and easily cover the spread against the struggling Pacers.
Take Nuggets -11
James Patrick Sports
Cornell vs. Brown
The Big Red can punch the first ticket issued to the "Big Dance" with a win at the Pizzitola Events Center as they look to wrap up their third straight Ivy League Title on Friday Night. Big Game James Patrick's Friday Night selection in Ivy League action is Cornell Big Red.
Freddy Wills
Bucks vs. Wizards
Play: Wizards +4
You may be surprised especially given how well the Bucks have been playing lately, but I like the Wizards in this spot. It's an excellent spot for the books to be pulling a fast one on the average bettor. Basically these two teams played a day ago in Milwaukee where the Bucks were -10 now they are -4 on the road and the line has already moved from -4.5 to 4 in most places with all the public on the Bucks side naturally. I think the Wizards stay within this number and even have a shot at the end to pull off the outright victory.
Teddy Covers
Missouri State @ Wichita State
PICK: Missouri State +2.5
Missouri State head coach Cuonzo Martin came into the MVC conference tournament with a boatload of expectations. “We have the mindset of going in and winning the conference tournament. It’s not a question of going in and competing. We’re past the competing part.”
The Bears have a boatload of momentum following last night’s tight win over Evansville. They won a game in which they shot terribly, hitting just 33 percent from the floor and just 8-16 from the free throw line, while losing the turnover battle. But Missouri State made all the key plays down the stretch, ending the game on a 7-0 run to get past the pesky Purple Aces.
Missouri State survived and advanced despite facing all kinds of adversity, exactly the type of team that makes bettors money here in conference tournament season. And, with a deep rotation – ten players saw meaningful minutes last night and only one of them – leading scorer Kyle Weems – played more than 29 minutes, leaving them relatively fresh here.
Both regular season games between these two teams were barnburners. The Bears trailed by 25 early in the second half of the first meeting, but they rallied all the way back to cut the lead to one before falling just short. The rematch was equally agonizing, as Missouri State led by three with 4:30 remaining, but were held scoreless for the next four minutes as Wichita went on a 9-0 run to steal the win. There’s no class difference involved in this matchup!
Wichita State was a cash cow for my clients and I throughout the month of January, consistently undervalued by the betting marketplace. But after an extended stretch of pointspread success, the Shockers personified my ‘buy low, sell high’ sports betting mantra, failing ATS in six of their last seven games. Wichita State lost each of their last four games away from home in SU fashion, making them a poor choice to notch the season sweep in tonight’s meeting. 2* Take Missouri State
Jack Jones
Samford +3
It is extremely difficult to beat a team 3 times in the same season, and that's what The Citadel is facing tonight as they take on Samford in the Southern Conference Tournament Friday. The Citadel won by 1 and 4 points, respectively, in their two meetings with Samford this season. Samford is chomping at the bit to get some payback tonight in the third meeting.
This play falls into a system that is 58-21 (73%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (SAMFORD) - revenging 2 straight losses where team scored < 60 points against opponent off a cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. Samford brings more energy and passion to the floor tonight. Take Samford.
Dennis Macklin
Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Boston Celtics -5½
The Celtics have struggled this year due in most part to injuries and an aging Boston Three Party. In particular, the Celtics go as KG goes and he appears to be ready to make late run. Boston has won four of their last five roadies including win over the Lakers, the loss ... just a brutal spot against the Nuggets. The 76ers are in complete freefall losing last four by 19-21-9-11. You simply can't find a worse home team, an incredible 8-20 ATS at the Wachovia Center. Philly an uninspiring 1-3 as a home dog at this number. Boston 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS L11 in the series including 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS on this floor. Elton Brand questionable for tonight but at this point pretty much a non-factor. Boston rates solid call here as the Celts battle for first-round playoff position.
Black Widow
1* on San Antonio Spurs -8
No Chris Paul gives the Hornets no shot at keeping up with the Spurs on the road tonight. The Hornets have lost 3 straight, including a 92-106 home loss to this same San Antonio team. New Orleans has lost 4 straight road games, and their last 3 have all come by 8 points or more. San Antonio is 7-1 S.U. & 6-2 ATS in eight home meetings with the Hornets over the last 3 years. The home team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Take San Antonio and lay the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Sacramento Kings +8.5
Not having Jason Terry and his 17 ppg will hurt the Mavs tonight against a Kings team that is playing well, having won 3 of its last 4 games SU and 4 in a row ATS. Dallas has been an extremely poor choice in the home chalk as it is only 4-21-1 ATS in its last 26 games as a home favorite. The Mavericks are also just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Meanwhile, the Kings are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Look for the Kings to keep this one within the number.
Info Plays
3* on Golden State Warriors +13
Reasons why the Warriors cover:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Road teams (GOLDEN STATE) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. This is a 45-13 ATS System hitting 77.6% over the last 5 seasons. This system is 6-1 this season. The odds makers have over-adjusted this line based off of the Warriors' last game against the Magic, a blowout loss. Bet Golden State on the road.