John Martin
1 Unit on Dallas Mavericks -8
The favorite has gone 12-5-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings. Dallas has been simply dominant against the Kings at home throught the years. Sacramento is 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings in Dallas. Cash in with the Mavs as the favorite as they extend their winning streak to 10 games, this one by double-digits.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Sacramento Kings +8.5
I'll take the Kings for 1 unit tonight showing pretty decent value when you consider that they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. I also can't look past the fact that the Mavericks are just 4-21-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite. With Jason Terry not in the lineup, the Mavs will be without a big scoring option so I think odds makers are asking too much of them to cover this number here tonight.
Sac Lawson
Detroit -1.5 vs Wis.-Green Bay
Get this.. Green Bay comes into this game with a better record, they've beaten Detroit twice this year, and yet on a neutral court they are the underdog!?! This really tells me all I need to know about the true strengths of both sides. Both games these two teams played this year came down to the final shot, and there is no doubt in my mind that Detroit will have some fierce double-revenge on their minds.
Both teams are relatively small, but their styles of play are a tad different. Detroit is a slashing team that loves to attack the middle and draw fouls. Green Bay penetrates and dishes to get open three pointers. Both teams are effective in their respective game plans, but Detroit has very speedy guards, and they usually don't have an issue getting back out on shooters. This is a main reason why they are a top 50 team in the nation when it comes to defending the three ball. Expect both teams to drive the lane, but expect Detroit to focus on a midrange game, and getting to the foul live where as Green Bay will play a higher risk-reward type of game from deep.
I've seen Detroit play a couple times this season, one of which was against this Green Bay team. I love their tenacity in the lane, and I love how they pick up the tempo off missed buckets. Green Bay depends far too much on three pointers, and against a decent defense such as Detroit, I see them missing a few early and getting themselves into a bit of a rut. Detroit will get to the line plenty, and have plenty of points in the paint. Love the revenge angle tonight, and I've simply gotta roll with the team that I have ranked higher in my power rankings, just as Vegas did!
Harvard -8 vs Pennsylvania
First off, I'm a guy that doesn't use power ratings as much as many. But I know one thing... This Harvard team is a top 120 team, and Penn is probably in the 300 range. It's been one tough year for Penn, they've been plagued by injuries worse than any other team in the league, and maybe the nation. Their leading scorer from last year has been out virtually all season, they've changed coaches mid season, it's just been a cluster-f**k of changes to this lineup. No doubt they have more talent than a 300 level team, but they haven't been able to get any sort of flow.
Harvard comes into this matchup as one of the few teams in this conference that likes to run. This is a team that would prefer to play games in the high 70's, and that means trouble for a team like Penn with a short bench. Penn literally is one of the top 10 worst teams in the nation in bench minutes. They simply do not sub much, and against a faster team like Harvard, that really will be problematic. On top of that Harvard is the best team in the conference when it comes to getting to the line. This is not a team that hangs out behind the arc, they slash to the pain, penetrate, post up... do everything they can to get easy buckets and not settle for threes. As a result they draw tons of fouls, and once again this is trouble for the short Penn bench.
We've seen Penn heat up from deep a couple times this year and surprise some folks, Cornell for instance. But quite frankly, playing against an uptempo squad like Harvard, their legs won't be there late in the game on their threes, and most of their top scorers will be in foul trouble leaving them playing some soft defense. If Penn hits jumpers, they may keep this game close for 30 minutes, but no doubt in my mind Harvard runs away with it late. Hell, if Penn doesn't hit jumpers, Harvard will run away with it early!
UC Riverside +8 vs Long Beach
Three issues Long Beach has tonight... they have zero bench, zero size, zero discipline. All things that can be ignored when playing an uptempo team, none of which can be ignord when playing a team like Riverside. Size really isn't an issue if you can run past people, but Riverside is going to play one of the slowest games Long Beach has seen all year. They'll get back on defense, control the glass, and also disrupt the Long Beach offense. The guards for The Beach; Plater, Gilling, and Ware are all very short. Riverside plays a couple good sized guards that can really hastle these guys on the perimeter and force some turnovers in the process. Riverside reminds me of USC (in the pac-10) the way they use their lengthy guards to disrupt their oppositions offense.
Discipline is a huge factor as well... Long Beach is a team that really struggles against slower paced opponents and it's because they are stubborn in their game plan. Usually that would be a good thing, but in this case they get so caught up with wanting to play a fast paced game that they end up taking poor shots, playing high risk defense, and leaving all the solid fundementals behind. I've been a part of this Long Beach fan base for many years now, as most of you know, and if there is one thing I've learned it's that this team NEVER plays well against slow, methodical teams. That's exactly what they'll see tonight.
I fully understand that it is "senior night" at the Pyramid. But Long Beach plays 6 guys, literally 6 guys. And Gilling is the only senior. Senior night, to me, means absolutely nothing in this situation. I expect this game to go right down to the wire, and be decided by a last second bucket. Should be an exciting game, but there's no way Long Beach runs away with this one against a far more disciplined/slow Riverside club.
Stan Lisowski
OKLAHOMA CITY
The visitor in this series has won and covered 3 straight meetings, as well as 6 of the last 7 matchups. The Thunder go 19-11 ATS on the road and 8-1 outright as an away favorite. LA is just 13-25 vs. the number in conference play.