Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Wofford/ Georgia Southern Under 114: Wofford's game's have been extremely low scoring of late, averaging just 109 ppg in their last 5 games. Both teams slow the pace and Wofford can't score as they average 57.6 ppg overall and 55.1 ppg when away from home. Georgia Southern has averaged just 54.5 ppg in neutral site games and just 59.8 ppg in their last 5 games overall. With this being a tournament game both teams should really play it close to the vest, giving us a game with no more than 110 points being scored.
Belmont -11 over Tennessee State: Not only is this a conference tourney game but a revenge game, as Belmont's last loss was to the same Tigers. Belmont is 14-2 on the year within the OVC and 11 of those wins have been by 11 or more. When this team wins they win big. They have outscored their opponents by 13.4 ppg on the year overall and have outscored OVC opponents by 15.7 ppg on the year. Belmont is also on 5 days rest, while Tennessee State played last night. Both teams can score a ton, but Belmont has a huge edge on defense, as they have allowed just 56.2 ppg in their last 4 games and 63.6 ppg overall, while Tennessee State has allowed 79.8 ppg on their last 5 games and 70.7 ppg overall. Revenge, rest and the better overall team playing to move on in the OVC Tourney. Look for Belmont to roll here.
Illinois State/ Northern Iowa Under 134: MVC tourney games seem to trend to the Under and I will go that way here. These teams just played each other and 152 points were scored in that game, but I expect the defenses to adjust for this one. The Under is 7-3 the last 10 meetings, with just 2 of those games putting up more than 134 points. The Panthers allowed 72 points to Illinois State in that last game, but prior to hat they had not allowed more than 65 points in any of their previous 12 games, allowing just 56.3 ppg over that stretch. Illinois State is one of the faster paced teams in the nation and they do score 75.4 ppg on the year, but I don't see them cracking 65 points in what should be a much slower paced game than the last one. The panthers have needed a strong defense this year, because their offense struggles, averaging just 64.9 ppg overall and 63.1 ppg when away from home, plus they have put up just 54 ppg in neutral site games this year. The Panthers should be able to slow this pace on offense, while their defense does the rest in keeping this one in the 120's.
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Citadel at Western CarolinaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: CitadelFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that the Citadel will lose this game by fewer than eight points. SIM shows solid projections that WC will shoot less than 46% and will have between 34 and 39 boards. In past games, the Citadel is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when they grab 34 to 39 rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons. WC has been a money burner noting they are 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) as a favorite this season. WC head coach Hunter has not done all that well against inferior type teams noting he is just 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) when playing against a bad team with a win percentage of 20% to 40% of their games after 15 or more games have been completed. Take the Citadel and also consider adding a 2* amount using the money line looking for the SU upset win.
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Indiana State vs. EvansvilleFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Indiana St +3½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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In this 3:30 tip the Purple Aces of Evansville enter as a hot team behind high scoring gun slinger, Colt Ryan. They have won 4 consecutive games and covered five consecutive games. The last of those was an 84-68 home court regular season ending romp over this IN St team. Clear edge to the Sycamores in this right back revenge game. While the Aces have been surging to the finish line, Indiana St has closed on a 1-5 SU, 0-6 ATS slide. Five of those were in the role of favorite. Today they return in the more comfortable role of underdog where they have already defeated MISS, Miami Fla, and in league play, N. Iowa, Creighton, and Wichita ALL AS UNDERDOG. Key to this winner is the return of Gonzaga transfer Arop who has been suspended during the latter part of Sycamores losing streak. With him in the lineup, IN St is the better team and gets this outright win.
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Memphis vs. ClevelandFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: MemphisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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How much longer can the Cavs keep this up, particularly with Kyrie Irving at less than 100%? The team won in come from behind fashion Wednesday, upsetting the Jazz as a home dog as Irving continues to play through a knee injury. He scored 11 points in the final five minutes against the Jazz, rallying his team back from a 12-point deficit. Call me crazy, but I don't see the Cavs continuing to win...
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Memphis is a team that continues to win. They are 10-1 their last 11 games with the only loss coming at Miami. Yet, they did struggle Wednesday vs. Portland as they too had to rally back from a double digit deficit. But there are several signs that the Grizz will bounce back her. Namely, a 15-7 ATS mark this season when coming off a game where they failed to cover the spread. They are also 18-7 ATS vs. the Eastern Conference.
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Now, I am aware the Grizzlies have not had much luck in Cleveland over the last decade. But keep in mind most of those results are a product of the Cavs having LeBron James at the time. This will be Memphis' first time playing in Cleveland since November of 2010, the first month of the first year the Cavs were without James. Memphis has since won all three meetings against the Cavs, including an 84-78 victory earlier in this year.
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Indiana vs. OrlandoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: IndianaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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What happened to the Pacers on Wednesday? They entered the fourth quarter of their home game with the Celtics leading by 10 points but suddenly went ice-cold. Indiana shot 4 for 20 from the floor in the fourth and didn't score after taking a nine-point lead with 4:36 remaining! After all that, they still had a chance to force overtime but Kevin Garnett found a wide-open Jeff Green under the basket for a layup with 0.5 seconds left, handing the Pacers an 83-81 defeat. It was just the second time in 24 games that Indiana, second in the league in scoring defense at 89.5 PPG, lost when allowing fewer than 87 points. "As a group we just didn't have that rhythm," said forward David West. "We were careless with the ball and we just didn't make some plays we were supposed to make." The Pacers visit Orlando tonight and should remember losing 97-86 in their last visit to “Disney World” on Jan 16. In that one, the Pacers were an abysmal 2-of-17 on threes, while the Magic nailed 12-of-21 from beyond the arc. However, let’s note that since that win, the Magic are a hard-to-believe 3-21 SU. I realize this is a ‘heavy’ number to lay on the road but the Pacers are 9-2 ATS this year as a road favorite and 16-6 ATS off a SU loss. Lay it!
SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta +4 -over BOSTONFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These two have split two games this season and the last four games they played last year. There are no scores to settle or other intangibles that stick out. Boston is in seventh place in the Eastern Conference but they’re 10 games up on the ninth place Raptors so there is no danger of them missing the playoffs. Coming off seven road games in its last eight games, including the past two in Philly and Indiana, the latter being an intense, two-point win over the red-hot Pacers, Boston is likely to be a little bit gassed for this one while the Hawks will be fresh.
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The Hawks are coming off a home win over Philadelphia on Wednesday. Atlanta has won five of its past seven road games with only losses over that stretch occurring at Denver and the Lakers. Atlanta is 21-14 against Eastern Conference foes but seven of those losses occurred against clubs that are ahead of them in the standings and Boston isn’t one of those teams. Against the rest of the East, Atlanta is 21-7. Getting points with this superior visitor against a Boston club, whose coach has repeatedly suggested that he won’t burn players out in the regular season and its only goal is to make the playoffs, has much appeal.
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CHARLOTTE +14 over Oklahoma CityFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The oddsmakers can’t give the Hornets enough points these days. Here’s a home team that has lost eight games in a row both straight up and against the spread. At home against Brooklyn in their last game, the Hornets lost by 19 as a 10-point pooch. Prior to that, as a 13-point dog in Portland, they lost by 22 and the list goes on and on. Getting 14 points here, Charlotte becomes this season’s biggest home dog and while this team is complete rat-doo-doo, an opportunity still exists.
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The Oklahoma Thunder has defeated the Hornets in four straight and in six of the past seven games. In their one meeting this season, the Thunder clobbered Charlotte by 45 points (114-69). OKC played a highly emotional and intense game last night at the World’s Most Famous Arena and hung on for a one-point win. The Thunder are in the second game of a four games in five nights stretch with Boston and San Antonio up next on Sunday and Monday respectively. If ever there was a time for a club to focus on more important things, this could be it. An inflated line in a very unfavorable scheduling spot makes this the ideal time to fade the visitor.
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Washington/BROOKLYN over 182½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Wizards play solid defense, allowing a sixth best 95.2 points per game. Offensively, Washington ranks 30th, averaging just 91.8 points-per-game. Those numbers are averaged out over this entire season, often resulting in skewed results. Many of the Wizards’ games this year were without John Wall and without Bradley Beal playing significant minutes. Beal (questionable for tonight) is averaging 17 points per game over his last nine while Wall is averaging 17 points and nine assists per game. The last time a Wizards game had a posted total lower than this one was way back on February 1st, 14 games ago against the Grizzlies in Memphis.
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The Nets are only two games back of the No. 2 seed in the East but they seem to be the forgotten challenger. When Avery Johnson was coaching, the team’s identity was one of a slow-paced, methodical group that worked the clock in order to find the best shot possible and play solid defense. That’s not the case since Johnson was axed. With P.J. Carlesimo now calling the shots, Brooklyn is scoring more points and giving up more, ranking 17th in defensive efficiency. In eight of the Nets’ last nine games, the winning team has scored 96 points or more each time. In three of the last four games that the Wizards and Nets met, the winning team has scored 108 points or more. These two meet again with different identities this time around with both clubs being more efficient on offense
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ANAHEIM -½ +106 over CalgaryFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. Calgary will have to end a lengthy skid in Anaheim in order to extend its two-game winning streak and we don’t see that happening. The Flames have lost 15 straight in Orange County since last winning at the Honda Center on Jan. 19, 2004. After big wins over San Jose and Vancouver, both in Calgary, the Flames are up against it here. They haven’t won three in a row in over a year and have lost three straight on the road at Colorado, Minnesota and Phoenix. Things get tougher here.
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This year the Ducks are powerful, owning a 9-1-0 record as the host. The Ducks power-play ranks first in the league at 29.2 %. They have a nine-point division lead over second place Dallas. They come in focused every night and with St. Louis and Minnesota up next, the Ducks focus should once again be on the task at hand. Give the Flames credit for being very competitive this year when most thought they couldn’t be. However, at this venue, against this strong and determined host, Calgary is simply outclassed.
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COLORADO +130 over ChicagoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. 24 and counting. That’s half the schedule that the Blackhawks have not lost in regulation. It’s an incredible streak that has to be considered one of the most remarkable runs in sports history. Chicago needs no introductions.
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You all might remember when the Colorado Avalanche were winning Stanley Cups and were the NHL’s most dominant team. It was not that long ago when the Pepsi Center was packed with an atmosphere that was electric every night. During that time, this was the one of the most difficult buildings in the league for the opposition to leave with a win. Expect that same atmosphere here. Colorado played Chicago tough in a 3-2 loss in the only meeting between the two this season just two days ago. The Avs have won three straight at home over Calgary, St. Louis and Nashville while scoring 12 times over that span. If effort, determination and atmosphere have any impact on the outcome of games, and we’re suggesting it does, this looks like the night the streak ends.
Jack Jones
Golden State Warriors -1½
The Golden State Warriors will be more motivated for a win tonight than at any other point this season. They are battling for a playoff spot in the Western Conference right alongside Houston. I look for them to protect their home court tonight.
The reason these Warriors will be motivated is the fact that they've lost to the Rockets twice already this season in their first two meetings. That includes a 109-140 setback at Houston on February 5th as they were thoroughly embarrassed. It's payback time tonight folks.
Golden State is 20-7 at home this season where it is scoring 102.3 points/game and allowing 97.7 points/game. Houston is just 13-20 on the road this year, giving up 103.4 points/game away from home. Given these numbers and the motivation factor, I'll take my chances on the Warriors as only a 1.5-point home favorite tonight.
Houston is 4-17 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Rockets are 2-16 ATS in road games after 2 straight games giving up 10 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons. The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet the Warriors Friday.
Steve Janus
Portland Trailblazers +11½
It's never easy betting against the Spurs at home, but I feel like there's a lot of value here with the Trailblazers. San Antonio was able to rally in the 2nd half against Chicago to pull out a 101-83 win at home as a 8.5-point favorite. They have now won two straight by double-digits without Tony Parker in the lineup. While the Spurs can make an injury seem like it doesn't matter with their ability to plug someone in and keep winning, I don't believe they will keep blowing teams out without him on the floor.
The Spurs have had their troubles with Portland of late. The Trailblazers lost by just 3-points in the first meeting between these two teams this season and were able to hold on for a 98-90 victory in the second meeting. After blowing a big lead Wednesday in a 85-91 loss at Memphis, I look for Portland to come out and lay everything on the line to get a win here. While it's unlikely they pull off the upset, this game should be decided by single-digits.
Portland is 14-4-2 ATS in their last 20 games vs a team with a winning S.U. record, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs a team with a winning % above .600. San Antonio has covered three straight, but are still just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a game where they covered the spread.
Dave Price
Indiana Pacers -9
The Pacers will be lacking no motivation tonight. They blew a 10-point 4th-quarter lead and lost to the Celtics last time out. Furthermore, they lost by 11 to lowly Orlando in the first meeting. These setbacks assure us the Pacers will be hungry. It's been a miserable season for the Magic, and I believe they'll have a tough time getting up for this one. They had the reigning NBA champion Heat beat Wednesday until LeBron James drove a dagger into their chest with a last-second lay up. Orlando will have a tough time bouncing back from such a tough loss here. The Magic have lost 6 in a row at home by an average of 21.2 points. Indiana, on the other hand, has won 3 straight on the road by an average of 16.3 points. The Pacers are 18-9 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Lay the number.
Red Dog Sports
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Charlotte Bobcats
Play: Charlotte Bobcats
Take the home underdog getting plenty of points. Oklahoma City is a strong team off a one point game with New York and now must play at letdown game in Charlotte against the struggling Bobcats. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook lead the visitors but I think Charlotte stays within 12 points on Friday night.
Don Best Consensus
Furman vs Samford
Pick: Furman
Paladins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. Paladins are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings
Players Edge
St. Peter's vs Fairfield
Pick: Fairfield
Fairfield comes into this Southern Conference game 3-0 SU in neutral site games this year, while St. Peter's is 0-1. Fairfield has beaten St. Peter's twice already this season by an average of 12 points. St. Peter's is 4-14 ATS in their last 18 overall. Take Fairfield.
Bob Balfe
Lakers -7.5 over Raptors
The comeback we saw the other night was amazing. The Lakers are a talented team. They just have been playing lazy because they are one of the few teams that understands regular season hoops means nothing. The Playoffs are all that matters. Toronto is awful on the road and I expect the Lakers to pick up where they left off in the fourth quarter against New Orleans. This game can really send them on their way to getting into a playoff spot. Take the Lakers.
Kyle Hunter
North Texas vs. UL Lafayette
Play: Over
The North Texas Mean and Louisiana Lafayette Ragin Cajuns have played two games this year that both went well over this posted total. North Texas can't guard opponents who shoot the three well, and Lafayette put up 105 points on them last time because of that. Both of these teams get to the line, and a lot of free throws in the end in a close game wouldn't surprise me a bit. The over is 5-2 in Lafayette's last 7 games overall.