Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, May 10

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Milwaukee at Cincinnati
The Brewers look to build on their 6-1 record in Yovani Gallardo's last 7 road starts. Milwaukee is the pick (+135) according to Dunkel, which has the Brewers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+135)

Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Samardzija) 15.323; Washington (Detwiler) 16.673
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-140); Over

Game 953-954: Pittsburgh at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Rodriguez) 13.814; NY Mets (Marcum) 15.058
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+125); Under

Game 955-956: Milwaukee at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.332; Cincinnati (Cingrani) 14.456
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+135); Over

Game 957-958: Colorado at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Garland) 14.798; St. Louis (Miller) 16.548
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-170); Under

Game 959-960: Philadelphia at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Cloyd) 15.250; Arizona (Kennedy) 16.999
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-160); Under

Game 961-962: Miami at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Fernandez) 15.393; LA Dodgers (Magill) 14.528
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-150); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+130); Over

Game 963-964: Atlanta at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 14.952; San Francisco (Cain) 15.575
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-125); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-125); Under

Game 965-966: Cleveland at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Kluber) 16.908; Detroit (Scherzer) 16.615
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+170); Over

Game 967-968: Toronto at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Ortiz) 14.725; Boston (Lester) 16.272
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 969-970: Baltimore at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hammel) 14.781; Minnesota (Pelfrey) 16.844
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+105); Over

Game 971-972: NY Yankees at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Hughes) 16.210; Kansas City (Davis) 15.815
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-105); Under

Game 973-974: LA Angels at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (No Starter); White Sox (Axelrod)
Dunkel Line: No Line
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 975-976: Texas at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Ogando) 15.022; Houston (Keuchel) 12.952
Dunkel Line: Texas by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-210); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-210); Under

Game 977-978: Oakland at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Straily) 15.193; Seattle (Iwakuma) 15.002
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+130); Over

Game 979-980: San Diego at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Volquez) 15.969; Tampa Bay (Cobb) 16.830
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-175); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-175); Over

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh Pirates at New York MetsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: New York MetsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When the Mets meet Pittsburgh in Game Two of this four-game series at Citi Field they will take on a struggling Wandy Rodriguez and the Pirates. Rodriguez enters the fray just 7-13 his last 20 team starts during May, including 3-8 his last 11 away. With the Bucs just 3-12 their last 12 games as visitor in this series, look for Wandy's woes to continue tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Mets.

Ross BenjaminFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago vs. WashingtonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: ChicagoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Washington Nationals are a dismal 0-7 this season versus National League opponents that have an on-base-percentage of .325 or less on the season. The Cubs starter Pete Samardzia has established himself as the ace of the staff and rightfully so. The Notre Dame product has 2 career starts versus the Nationals with both coming in 2012. In those 2 outings Samardzia was excellent in posting a 1.15 ERA, a 0.77 WHIP, and struck out 16 while walking only 1. The Washington starter Ross Detwiller has struggled a bit over his last 3 starts as evidenced by his very lofty 1.87 WHIP in those outings. Play on the Chicago Cubs as a money line underdog selection.

Robert Ferringo

Chicago White Sox over L.A. Angels

Here we just have two bad teams, playing bad baseball, facing off in an under-the-radar game. But I like the home team here because, at the very least, they have a hot pitcher on the mound. Dylan Axelrod has notched four straight quality starts, giving up just eight runs in the 26 innings. The White Sox have lost three of those four starts, but that hasn't been his fault. The Angels are going with Tommy Hanson, who has been decent in adjusting to the American League. But Hanson's problem is that he isn't going deep into games. He hasn't gone past the sixth in any of his five starts. That is going to give Chicago a crack at Los Angeles' terrible bullpen. He can be victimized by the home run ball against a Chicago lineup that swings for the fences. The White Sox are a pretty good home team. But they have played 19 of their last 27 games on the road, which has kind of muted their value. I think Chicago will play ! with a little urgency this weekend as they are already sagging in the Central standings. I'll go with the sharper pitcher and the motivated home team as the White Sox will steal this game with some late runs.

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland vs. SeattleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This game fits a system that has won every time since 2009 and plays to the under for home favorites like the Mariners, that are off a road favored loss and scored 2 or less runs, vs an opponent off a road favored loss that also scored 2 or less runs. Seattle as a team has played under 9 straight times in a game where they scored 2 or less runs and had 3 or less hits. Oakland after a hot start with the bat has gone cold scoring just 2.7 runs on .220 hitting the past week. They do have a solid road bullpen era at 2.66 and a serviceable D. Straily on the mound. Seattle has Iwakuma and he has pitched under in all 3 home starts with a 0.48 era here. The Mariners have stayed under in 6 of 8 at home when the total is 7 or less and are scoring just 3 runs per game vs right handed pitchers. Take the under here.

Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles DodgersSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Miami Marlins +1½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Dodgers have been a bust again this year, with the additions of Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez and Carl Crawford doing little to help their struggling offense. All three of those players could miss tonight's game with lingering injuries, as they host the Marlins.
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Los Angeles has lost seven straight overall, and they are coming off a three game sweep at home versus Arizona. It won't get any easier tonight, sending a struggling rookie pitcher to the mound, as Matt Magill gets the nod.
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Magill (0-0, 7.88 ERA) has failed to impress in his first two big league starts, allowing five runs on six hits, while walking four in just 1 1/3 innings in a loss to the Giants his last time out. He was better in his previous start, but despite turning in a decent performance, he got little run support and the bullpen cost him any chance at the win. Given what we have seen from the Dodgers, he can't expect any favors from his teammates tonight.
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The Fish hand the ball to 20 year old Jose Fernandez, and he's coming off the best start of his young career. Fernandez (1-2, 3.48 ERA) tossed seven scoreless innings, allowing a single hit and striking out nine in a 2-0 win over the Phillies his last time out.
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While that was his first win after six starts, it wasn't his first dominant performance. He's allowed two runs or less, on fewer than five hits in four of his six starts, and the Fish have won the last two times he's taken the mound. This kid is just getting things figured out, and he's going to be tough to beat when he does.

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland vs. DetroitFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 8½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Corey Kluber (2-1, 3.06 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Kluber is coming off his first loss of the year vs. the Twins on Sunday, giving up three runs off five hits with four walks over 5 2/3's frames of work; he struck out five as well (Kluber was 2-1 with a 4.85 ERA on the road last year). The 27-year old will be opposed by the 28-year old Max Scherzer (4-0, 3.43 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits over eight frames in his team's eventual 17-2 destruction of the Astros on Sunday; he struck out eight and walked two (Scherzer was 7-3 with a 3.51 ERA last season). Scherzer continues to get the job done and throw deep into games and there's absolutely no reason to believe he won't again today. Kluber is one to keep your eyes on and has been consistent thus far. Recent performance plays a part in my handicapping repertoire and in this case I believe the table is set for a lower-scoring pitchers-duel.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia at ArizonaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ArizonaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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A succession of fluky plays in combination conspired to deny the D-backs a deserved Run Line win on Thursday vs. the Phils, who were able to benefit from a blown safe call by the first base umpire and a couple of scratch hits in the 7th inning to score their only run of the night. Still, it couldn't deny the D-backs a 2-1 win, their 4th in a row, and ascent to the top of the NL West for the first time in over a year. Tonight Arizona takes swings against Phils starter Tyler Cloyd, taking the place of the injured Roy Halladay in the rotation; the problem for Cloyd is that he had hardly impressed at AAA Lehigh Valley with a 5.40 ERA, and made little impression a year ago with a 4.91 ERA in a handful of starts for the big club. Meanwhile, Arizona starter Ian Kennedy has struggled with control issues lately but has posted a 1.06 ERA in winning his last two starts vs. the Phils.

Jim Feist

Toronto at Boston
Pick: Under

Last place Toronto stumbled into Fenway Park with a weak offense, 18th in baseball in runs scored, 25th in on-base percentage. Boston is a team with a weak bottom part of the order. Boston also has ace lefty Jon LEster on the hill with a 4-0 record and a 3.30 ERA, fanning 40 in 43+ innings. The under is 7-3-1 in the Red Sox's last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 7-1 under the total in Lester's last 8 home starts.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta at San FranciscoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: AtlantaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Matt Cain finally broke into the win column in his last start. That has to be a pressure breaker for the Giants righty, but he's far from out of the woods as far as his mysteriously slow start is concerned. That win came against the feeble Dodgers, and while Cain certainly appeared to have okay stuff, he's going to face a much stiffer challenge tonight against Atlanta.
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The big issue for Cain this season has been his spectacular vulnerability to the home run. That's a red flag against the free swinging Braves. This team has a lineup loaded with threats to go deep. Cain is likely to ring up some serious K's tonight. But the fly ball rate remains high and that could get him into some trouble this evening.
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Old pro Tim Hudson throws for Atlanta tonight, and he just keeps rolling along. There isn't anything especially sensational about Hudson anymore. Most of his numbers are fairly pedestrian, and he's certainly no longer a top of the line starter. But when it comes to mound savvy, Hudson is as good as it gets. His walk rate remains impressive, and he gets a good number of ground balls. What it really boils down to with Hudson is that hitters will have to find a way to beat him, as he's unlikely to do it to himself.
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The Braves and Giants have nearly identical records, but a check of the run differential clearly indicates that Atlanta has been more dominant. Right now, I have to give Hudson a very slight edge over Cain. That might seem like a stretch. But until Cain shows me he's really over the gopheritis, I don't have a huge problem going against him, and I like Hudson's consistency. I'm looking to take the plus money with the underdog Braves tonight.

Don Best ConsensusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta at San FranciscoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Runs, runs, runs. Expect the 2nd game of this series to go over the total just as the first did. The over is 9-0 in the Braves' last 9 road games, and they're currently on an 8-3 over run over their last 11 overall. The Giants are 4-1-1 to the over in their last 6 games. Hudson is 3-0 to the over in his last 3 starts while Cain is 2-0 to the over in his last 3 starts. Play Braves-Giants over.

Stephen NoverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami Marlins +130FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Jose Fernandez has superstar potential. He displayed it again this past Saturday throwing seven shutout innings on the road against the Phillies with nine strikeouts.
Contrast this with Dodgers starter Matt Magill, who is a desperate fill-in starter. Magill was shelled in his second big league start this past Saturday giving up five runs on six hits in 1 1/3 innings against the Giants.
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Not only do the Marlins have a huge edge in starting pitching, but I also like the backend of their bullpen better. Dodgers closer Brandon League is struggling and could be in danger of being removed as the closer.
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The key question here is are the Dodgers good enough at the rest of the spots to overcome their pitching disadvantage? I'd say yes - if the Dodgers were playing much better and were healthy. But they are not on either count.
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The Dodgers have lost seven in a row. They've scored three runs or fewer in six of those seven defeats. While Florida is last in runs scored, the Dodgers are second from the bottom in that important category.
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The Dodgers' starting middle infield is out, star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez isn't likely to play due to a sore neck and Carl Crawford is questionable with a hamstring injury.

Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee vs. CincinnatiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: CincinnatiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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All things considered, this seems like a pretty fair price on the Reds at home in the opener of a three-game set with the Milwaukee Brewers....
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The Reds will go with Tony Cingrani here as he looks to stay unbeaten in five starts. Cingrani is off what was easily the weakest of his four outings so far, lasting only six innings while giving up four runs. But in his three starts before that, he'd allowed just 3 ER in 18 IP while striking out 28 batters against only four walks. Those numbers are much better than what Brewers' starter Yovani Gallardo has produced (4.50 ERA in 7 starts). Plus, Cingrani hasn't been arrested this season.
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Milwaukee is not playing well right now. They've lost six of seven and all those games were at home. Having played a MLB-low 11 road games total so far, the Brew Crew look to be in trouble this season as they are below .500. They are also just 14-33 as a road underdog since the start of last season.

SC Live Dogs

NY Mets +105

Going to back this Mets team as a home dog after a close Thursday W against the Pirates. Wandy Rodriguez of the Pirates comes into this game with a 4.02 era on the year but on the road has been a different story where he has an 8.48 era through 3 road starts where he has allowed 5 HRs on 6 BBs and 7 Ks through 11 innings. Rodriguez made 1 start in 2012 at Citi Field where he allowed 3 runs through 6 innings on 2 HRs, 2 BBs and 3 Ks in a 10-6 W. A trend to keep in mind with Rodriguez is that this will be a start for him on 4 days rest and in 2012, he saw his era rise to a 4.04 on 4 days of rest. Through 96 combined ABs, this Mets team has a .260 average with 5 HRs off of Rodriguez. Shaun Marcum of the Mets comes into this game looking to make his 3rd start of the season and will be pitching with a little extra in mind as he is auditioning for a spot in this rotation. Marcum's two starts this season have come against the above average offenses of the Phillies and Mets where he allowed a combined 6 runs through 8 innings but the numbers that are encouraging for Marcum is that he is yet to allow a HR and his control seems to be in check. Marcum will be pitching this game with 6 days of rest and in 2012, when he had 5 or more days of rest between starts, he logged a 4-1 record with a 2.66 era through 61 innings. Marcum faced the Pirates twice in 2012 where he allowed a combined 1 run through 12 innings on 1 HR, 1 BB & 13 Ks. Through 90 combined ABs, this Pirates team has a .211 average with 3 HRs off of Marcum. Offensively, the Mets have turned in 4 Ws in their last 6 games while the Pirates have 4 Ls in their last 5 games. This Mets pen will be the key in this game as they have gotten hot at the right time lately and with Marcum not being extended yet in this season, the Mets pen will come into play. Look for the Mets to make it 5 out of their last 7 games and make some noise in an open NL East.