Tony GeorgeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami Heat -7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Not big on laying big numbers on the road in the Playoffs, but Miami after screwing off in game 1 of this series, imposed their will and talent on Chicago on Wednesday and no doubt want at least a split if not a sweep on the road. James and many starters rested in the last game and again will come in here focused. Miami can win by 10 here if they play their "A" Game. Chicago is a fighter whose time has come but will go down swinging and are well coached, but Miami just has to many man to man mis matches for Chicago on defense to overcome, especially when short handed.
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Pittsburgh vs. New YorkFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 7.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Mets got a late-inning victory over the Pirates on Thursday. Shaun Marcum makes his third start of the season for the Mets. He has allowed 6 runs and 11 hits in his first two starts against the Braves and Phillies. Marcum is 2-2 with a 2.65 ERA in six career starts against Pittsburgh going 1-1 against them last season. Pedro Alvarez (4-14), Garrett Jones (4-10) and Jose Tabata (4-11) hit the righty hard. The Pirates are hitting right around .250 in their last eight games and they’ve gone Over the total in 11 of their 17 road games this season. The Mets’ bullpen did pick up the win on Thursday, but they have an ERA over 4.50 as a unit. Wandy Rodriguez has continued his road struggles. He has allowed 12 runs and 17 hits in his three starts away from Pittsburgh. Ruben Tejada (5-7), John Buck (3-9) and David Wright (7-24) hit the southpaw well. The Mets have gone Over the total in 20 of their 31 games this season. They are putting up 4.4 runs per game against lefties. These two teams have played five Overs in their last eight games played in New York, and we expect that trend to continue on Friday.
Jimmy Boyd
Chicago Bulls +7½
You won’t find the Bulls as a 7.5 points home underdog very often and that kind of value is just too much to pass up today. Chicago’s defense has held opponents to 91.6 points per game when they are on their home court. While Miami may be the best team in the league, 12 of their 17 losses this season have come on the road. I am not saying the Bulls will win this game, but they should certainly not have a problem keeping this game closer than the 7.5 points they are receiving.
This matchup falls into a system to play against road favorites like Miami when they have covered 4 or more of their last 6 games and they are winning 75% or more of their games this season playing a team that has a winning record. This system is 100-54 (65%) ATS. The fact that Miami beat Chicago so easily in game two of this series has inflated this line much higher than it should be. The Heat shot 60% from the field in that game which is extremely unlikely to take place again, especially since they will be on the road today.
BRAD WILTON
Gave you a free play on the Jays-Rays Over the total in baseball last night.
For Friday, have to play the Spurs-Warriors Under the total in hoops.
Yeah, yeah, I know all about the shooting prowess of Curry and Thompson, but the Warriors "only" netted 100 points on Wednesday, and Game 2 did indeed stay Under by double-digits. So, that makes it 4 of the 6 meetings this year between these Western rivals having stayed Under the posted total.
The Spurs have played Under in 2 of their last 3 this postseason, while the Warriors are now Under in 3 of their last 4, and 5 of their last 9 overall dating back to the regular season.
The linemakers know the public is enamored with the three-point shooting of Golden State, that is reflected in the big total they have slapped on this game.
I say San Antonio and Golden State fall just shy of this big total on Friday night.
3* SAN ANTONIO-GOLDEN STATE UNDER
JEFF BENTON
No issue coming again on Friday with another freebie on the Yankees to stay Under in their game at Kansas City.
New York hits Kaufman Stadium having played 3 straight Unders, and 5 of their last 6 overall Under the total.
Kansas City comes back home on a 4-1-1 Under run of their own.
Series history shows 6 of the past 8 meetings having stayed Under the total, and right now Phil Hughes is about as stingy as they get on the hill for New York. Hughes sports a 1.71 ERA his last 3 starts.
The Royals go with Wade Davis who will look to build off a solid effort his last time out, allowing just one run in his 6 frames of work versus the White Sox.
Play the weekend opener Under the total between the Yanks and Royals.
2* N.Y. YANKEES-KANSAS CITY UNDER
SPORTS CHAT PLACE
Miami Heat -7
LeBron James and the Heat completely flipped the script on the series by destroying the Bulls by 115-78 in Game 2. James had 19 points and nine assists while Ray Allen led the team with 21 points off the bench but the game was all about desperation and defense and that's where the Heat absolutely dominated. Right from tipoff, the Heat played with the right level of urgency which completely had the Bulls overwhelmed. The Bulls attempted to fight back with their brand of toughness, but that just led to technical fouls and ejections which really took their focus away from the game and the Heat were able to capitalize in a flash. A 62-20 run spanning from the second quarter through the third had Game 2 over by the fourth quarter and the series level at 1-1.
As for the Bulls, the score sheet doesn't look too pretty as Nate Robinson had just 11 points and Joakim Noah added 12, but while the Bulls applied their toughness on the defensive end, all the pushing and shoving could do nothing to stop the Heat who were allowed to shoot a sizzling 60 percent from the field. The Bulls did a great job of keeping James quiet in the first half of Game 1, but no one could stop him from making his first six shots which had the Bulls playing from behind for the entire game. One person who has been capable of slowing down James is Luol Deng, but he is only listed as day to day so his availability for Game 3 is still uncertain.
In ATS trends, the Heat are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games, while the Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Conference Semifinals games and 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games. Head to head, the Heat are 7-15-2 ATS in the last 24 meetings in Chicago and the under is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.
The Bulls were absolutely run off the court in Game 2 and they know they just didn't execute the plans they had, but at the end of the day, they did their job because they were able to steal a game heading into Game 3. The focus is now on this game alone and while I'm sure we'll see a better Bulls team at home, I can't ignore how good the entire Heat team looked from top to bottom. In a hostile environment, you can expect a slower start from the Heat but I like their chances of pulling away late for a series lead.
Spurs / Warriors Over 203
Head to head, the Spurs are 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings and 5-2-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Golden State while the favorite is 18-6-2 ATS in the last 26 meetings. The Warriors are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall. The Spurs on the other hand are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Conference Semifinals games, 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record and 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games overall.
Who else thought the Golden State Warriors didn’t stand a chance in this series, raise your hands? Well, I’m one of those people, but after watching the first two games of this series, you would have to say this is a 50/50 proposition right now. In fact, the Warriors should be considered slight favorites because they have dominated proceedings thus far and they really should be heading into tonight’s game with a 2-0 series lead. After giving away Game 1, I really thought that Golden State wouldn’t respond well, but boy was I wrong as they looked just as good, thanks in large part to Klay Thompson’s monster first half, which setup the victory for the Warriors. Now the series shifts back to Golden State where the Warriors have to be feeling confident, seeing as they went 3-0 against Denver in the opening round as they defeated the Spurs on both occasions there in the regular season.
While I don’t really like taking totals in the playoffs, I think the over is the best play on the board in this one. Yes they only totalled 191 points in Game 2, but let’s not forget that they ended regulation at 106 apiece in Game 1, and that was after the Warriors scored just 14 fourth quarter points. In their two regular season meetings in Golden State, they finished on 208 (overtime) and 222 points, respectively. Looking back to the first round, the Warriors and Denver didn’t score well in Game 6, which was understandable given what that game meant, but in Games 3 & 4 in Golden State, they both went over 215 points. As far as the Spurs are concerned, they tore apart the Lakers swish cheese defense to the tune of 120 and 103 points in their two away games in that series. You get where I’m going here.
SPORTS CHAT PLACE
Detroit Red Wings -126
The Ducks took a stranglehold on their quarterfinal series with the Wings by notching a huge game five victory at the Honda Centre and now have the chance to end the series with another victory in Detroit. The play of Ryan Getzlaf has been huge for Anaheim in this series and all season long as he continues to prove himself as one of the best in the league and if the Ducks can make a push through the playoffs and into the Cup finals you would think that Getzlaf would have to be considered a Conn Smythe candidate. Anaheim was one of the best teams in the league this season and that includes an impressive resume on the road so it wouldn’t be too surprising to see the Ducks end the series tonight but they know the Wings will be playing with nothing to lose.
Detroit was one of the best teams down the stretch and they were rewarded for their strong play by extending their playoff streak to an unprecedented 22 years but are now a loss away from being sent home early for the second straight season. The Wings will have the home crowd on their side in this one and they’ll need everything they can get if they want to keep their season alive as they know the Ducks are playing very well and are a bounce away from the second round. This series has been incredibly tight in every contest to date and I don’t see much changing here. I like the Red Wings at home to force a deciding game seven where all bets are off.
Washington Capitals -137
New York found themselves in an 0-2 hole heading home but showed great resiliency and battled back to even the score by winning back to back 4-3 contests at Madison Square Garden. The Rangers’ offense finally awakened after being silent in the first two games in Washington and they hope that their offensive prowess will continue heading to Washington who need to reassess after two tough losses. Derek Stepan has been the team’s best offensive producer this season and his knack for scoring timely goals continues as he has netted back to back game winning goals for the Blue Shirts. Stepan’s leadership will be key moving forward for the Rangers and if he can continue to build on his offensive outpour than New York could very well head home with the series lead.
The Capitals looked like world beaters in the first two contests of this series but have suffered back to back heartbreaking losses that if they had received a bounce of two the other way could already bne on to the second round. Alex Ovechkin has been ice cold the past two contests but he thrives playing in front of the Washington faithful and he is too talented to be shut out for three straight games so expect to hear his name plenty in this one. Before this series began I projected a seven game thriller where home ice would be the key to victory and I don’t see that changing at all. The home team has wonm every game so far in this series and I expect the trend to continue here as the Capitals get some revenge and take the series lead.
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Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco GiantsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Take: Atlanta BravesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Atlanta Braves will look for back to back wins to start their series with the Giants when the two teams meet tonight at AT&T Park in San Francisco. Atlanta took Game 1 on Thursday night 6-3 behind a strong pitching performance from Julio Tehran, who gave up 3 runs over 7 innings before Craig Kimbrel came in to close out the victory. Tonight Atlanta will send Tim Hudson to the hill, who has been good for the Braves this season. He has posted a 4-1 record with a 3.83 ERA this season and has gone 8-4 against the Giants with a 3.17 ERA over 17 career starts. Hudson has been better that that against San Francisco over the past two years, going 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA in two starts. The Giants will counter with Matt Cain, who has really struggled out of the gate this season. He is just 1-2 with an ERA over 5.50 with his only win coming against a Dodgers team that has had trouble hitting the ball out of the infield this season. The Braves, who currently lead the NL East by two games over the Nationals, have been very good in the spot they are in here tonight against San Francisco. They are 5-1 in their last 6 games against teams from the NL West and they have been excellent when listed as an underdog on the road by the oddsmakers, going 8-3 in their last 11 contests. San Francisco, who has struggled against teams from a division other that the NL West, going 5-9 against those teams haven’t been very good in the situation they find themselves in here this evening. They are just 1-5 in their last 6 games against teams from the NL East and have lost 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record when Matt Cain is on the hill. They also haven’t found any success at home when listed as a favorite, losing 6 of 8. Pair that with the fact that the Braves have posted a 7-2 record in their last 9 games at AT&T Park and we’ll take them on the road at a plus price tonight to get the win.
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Spurs at WarriorsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Warriors evened their series against the Spurs with very good offense and underrated defense, and we look for another uptempo game to be played on Golden State's home floor. The first game of this series went over the total even before overtime, and the Spurs shot just 39% from the floor as Game Two fell under the total. Spurs are too experienced to have another poor offensive showing especially when they know they need to win one of the next two games to regain home court advantage prior to Game Five. San Antonio is 19-9 Over as an underdog while Golden State's offense remains red hot and will look for an even faster pace than the two games played on the road.
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Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle MarinersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Oakland AthleticsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I think this is an excellent spot for Oakland to break out of its slump. The A's have lost four straight games after getting swept in Cleveland which was a huge disappointment after winning two of three games against the Yankees in New York. After a white hot start to the season, Oakland have dropped back down to .500 including a game under .500 on the road. They split their opening season series with Seattle and look to open this series with a win behind Daniel Straily. This will be his fourth start of the season and his third on the road. He tossed a quality start against the Astros while pitching a decent game against the Yankees last time out as he was two-thirds of an inning away from a quality outing. In seven starts last season, he posted a 3.89 ERA so his addition into the starting rotation is no accident. The Mariners have been a bit of a pleasant surprise this season even though they are still three games under .500 overall. They got off to a slow start and have rebounded but they are just 4-10 in their last 14 games following a win. One of the biggest surprises has been the emergence of Hisashi Iwakuma who has a 1.61 ERA and 0.76 WHIP through seven starts, six of which have been quality. He did have a solid season last year but nothing like this however I do not see it lasting here. The A's were one of the teams that he shut down but the lineup getting another look at him is an edge for the offense. Look for Oakland to open the series with a victory.
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Toronto / Boston Over 9FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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A spot starter in for the Jays with Morrow dealing with some neck stiffness and he is a Blast from the Past. Ortiz came onto the scene a while back and really never lived up to his booking. He could be for a long night tonight here at Boston where the RedSox have been stroking rightside throwers to right at 5 Runs Per 9 Innings. Both teams actually in their best hitting situation with Toronto facing the Lefty and most recently the Jays have averaged 6 per 9 verses these guys over their last 10 played. Lester has not had a great deal of success verses Toronto and part of the reason why OVER is 11-3 his last 14 starts verses them. The Boston pen continues to not get people out over their last 10 and Toronto's Pen slipping of late as well. We do have a better than average weather pattern tonight at Fenway and while this 9 is a relatively high number for an MLB game, mine is right Dead on 10.
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San Antonio vs. Golden StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Golden State -135FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The common line of thinking here is that the Spurs bounce back after suffering an "upset" loss in Game 2 at home. But was it really that big of an upset? Certainly not as big as many would lead you to believe.
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This has been a fairly evenly-matched series all season long, with the two teams splitting six meetings. The Warriors win on Wednesday night marked the first time a road team was able to pull out a victory in this matchup this season.
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You can pretty much throw the last meeting here in Oakland out the window, as the Spurs benched the majority of their key cogs in an eventual 116-106 loss back on April 15th. However, you can't discount the Warriors effort in a 107-101 overtime win over the Spurs at Oracle Arena back on February 22nd.
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Yes, David Lee was a big factor in that win, and all of the regular season meetings, in fact, and of course he's now sidelined, and unlikely to suit up again on Friday night. With that being said, the Warriors have more than adjusted to life without Lee (he's been out since their playoff-opener), and have in fact thrived in his absence.
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The Warriors home court advantage will certainly be played up by the press and every media outlet leading up to this contest, but it's warranted in my opinion. Golden State has quite simply been tough to beat here at Oracle Arena this season, going 31-13 SU, including a perfect 3-0 mark in the playoffs.
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The Spurs have held their own on the road, but haven't been the same 'road warriors' we've become accustomed to seeing in years' past. In fact, entering the playoffs, they had dropped seven straight away from home (I'll admit they had an ever-changing lineup over that stretch, but were still favored in three of those games). They did manage to beat the undermanned Lakers twice in L.A. en route to a 4-0 sweep in the opening round, but they're obviously facing a much tougher challenge in this matchup.
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I'm not going to mess with the pointspread in this spot, as the Warriors have had a knack for winning some tight games in these playoffs, with two of their three home victories coming by four points or less. The Spurs will put up a serious fight, but in the fourth quarter, I look for the Warriors to make the clutch shots, and find a way go grab their first lead of the series.
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Texas Rangers -1½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I'm siding with the Texas Rangers on the Run Line Friday as they beat the Houston Astros by two-plus runs. They have a massive edge on the mound in this one, which will lead to a blowout victory.
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Alexi Ogando has been brilliant in his move from the bullpen to the rotation this year. The right-hander is 3-2 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.263 WHIP through seven starts. One of those starts came against Houston on April 3rd as Ogando pitched 6 1/3 shutout innings while striking out 10 in a 4-0 Texas victory.
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Dallas Keuchel is no more than a spot starter in this league. He's getting his first start of the season tonight after struggling in the bullpen up to this point. Kuechel has posted a 4.96 ERA and 1.840 WHIP while allowing 13 runs, 9 earned, and 30 base runners over 16 1/3 innings out of the 'pen in 2013.
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Houston is 1-15 (-12.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. It is losing in this spot 3.2 to 7.2, or by an average of 4.0 runs/game. Enough said. Bet the Rangers on the Run Line.
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Chicago Cubs +135FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Samardzija is having a pretty consistent year so far and has even pitched well on the road posting a 3.04 ERA in 4 starts. That's rare for a young star, but I feel like he is ready to be a consistent pitcher for the rest of the year. He has an easier task today against the Nationals who are ranked 22nd in OPS vs. RHP as he has faced the Reds, Brewers, Braves and Pirates on the road this year. 3 of the 4 are in the top 15 in OPS vs. RHP and he's pitched good enough to win in all 4 games. Samardzija has a good history against hte Nationals posting a 0.83 WHIP and a 1.15 ERA which is interesting considering his weakness of giving up too many BB's. He's only walked 1 batter in those two starts and the Nationals again this year are ranked 23rd in BB's which should only help Samardzija pitch another gem tonight.
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The Cubs on the other hand will also have their hand full against Ross Detwiler who continues to pitch well. However, the Cubs are scoring 5.16 runs per 9 over their last 10 games vs. LHP and Detwiler will face a Cubs line up that has 53 AB against him and a .803 OPS. Detwiler also is 4-10 in his last 14 vs. the NL Central and has a 4.21 xFIP on the year which is more accurately displaying what his ERA should be. I think we are getting great value with the Cubs here against a Nationals team that has struggled offensively. Cubs are also fresh off a day of rest which means there bullpen should be at full strength. Cubs have only given up 4+ runs after a day off once this entire season.
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Notable Hot Starters:
Tony Cingrani (19 IP, 2-1, 0.63 WHIP, 2.84 ERA)
Shelby Miller (2-1, 18.1 IP, 1.25 WHIP, 1.96 ERA)
Alexi Ogando (1-2, 19 IP, 1.21 WHIP, 2.84 ERA)
Dylan Axelrod (0-3, 19.2 IP, 0.97 WHIP, 2.75 ERA)
Phil Hughes (3-0, 21 IP, 1.05 WHIP, 1.71 ERA)
Hisahi Iwakuma (2-1, 18 IP, 1.11 WHIP, 1.50 ERA)
Edinson Volquez (3-0, 19.1 IP, 1.14 WHIP, 2.33 ERA)
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Cold Starter Of The Day:
Today's cold starter that has the best shot at winning tonight has got to be Wandy Rodriguez and the Pirates. Though I'm not making an official MLB sports pick on this play I would think there is value with the Pirates because Rodriguez has pitched poorly recently. He has a 2.45 ERA over his last 5 starts vs. the Mets and he's backed by a better bullpen. The Mets have a .198 average at home vs. LHP and they will start Shawn Marcum who is still trying to get used to starting again.
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Notable Cold Starters:
Jon Garland (1-2, 17 IP, 1.88 WHIP, 6.35 ERA)
Wade Davis (1-2, 14.1 IP, 2.44 WHIP, 7.53 ERA)
Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington Nationals -141FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cubs haven't yet shown they can be trusted on the road where they have dropped 58 of their last 81, including 10 of 16 this season. The Cubs have also lost 4 straight at Washington. I like Jeff Samardzija, but he isn't being done any favors by an offense that is hitting only .207 and scoring 2.7 runs per game on the road. The Cubs are 2-7 in Samardzija's last 9 road starts and 0-5 in his last 5 starts as an underdog. The Nats have won 6 of 7 and should be in good hands with Ross Detwiler on the bump. He's won both of his home starts against the Cubs, and the Nationals are 7-0 in his last 7 starts versus clubs that have a losing record. Take Washington.