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Golden State Warriors -2½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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How could you not be impressed with the way the Warriors responded in Game 2 after that horrific collapse in Game 1. They now head home for two games with a chance to take a commanding 3-1 advantage. There's clearly going to be a lot of public money on the Warriors as a small home favorite. Golden State is a perfect 8-0 ATS in the playoffs and have covered in 11 straight dating back to the regular season. They are an impressive 31-13 at home this year and have clearly looked like the better team.
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While I'm not big on backing the public, I think there's a bit of an overreaction here to the fact that Golden State is favored by a lot of the sharps. There's really not much of a difference between being a 2.5-point favorite or a 2.5-point underdog.
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There was a lot of the same sharp action against the Warriors in their first round series against the Nuggets, when they returned home after a split in Denver as a 1.5-point underdog in Game 3. You can say what you want about the Big 3 of San Antonio, the best player on the floor is Steph Curry and until he shows any signs of slowing down I'm certainly not going to bet against him.
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Golden State is 10-2 ATS in home games after playing 2 straight games as an underdog. They are also 5-0 ATS when playing on 1 days rest, while the Spurs are a miserable 3-12 ATS over their last 15 games when playing on 1 days rest.
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Miami -7½ -102 over CHICAGOFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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That was certainly quite a show that the Heat put on in Game 2. At one point, the Heat went on a 62-20 run on their way to utterly demolishing this Bulls squad. Now the series shifts back to the Windy City with the series tied at one game apiece. Unfortunately for the Bulls they will most likely be without Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich for Game 3. The Heat already laid an egg in Game 1 and that woke them up. That Game 1 loss helped to remind Miami that every game must be played with intensity for 48 minutes. They got the bulletin and responded. They will not lay another egg, especially in this all-important Game 3.
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That Game 2 win by the Heat also had some other notable elements to it. After nine technical fouls, two ejections and a whole lot of extracurricular pushing and shoving, the end results were as follows: The biggest postseason win in Heat history, the biggest postseason loss in Chicago Bulls history, and tons of fresh venom pulsing through the veins of this now-tied Eastern Conference semifinal series. Miami won 115-78, a stunning outcome for a game that was basically back-and-forth for much of the first half but it really showed what this Heat team is capable of when a fire in them is ignited. The Bulls should have let a sleeping dog lie but they didn’t. They will pay the price in Game 2, just like the paid the price in the second half of Game 1.
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GOLDEN STATE -2½ -102 over San AntonioSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Talk about value and one need not look further than these Golden State Warriors. After losing 29 straight games in San Antonio, the Warriors, fresh off a tremendous upset over the Nuggets, went into San Antonio and completely dominated both games, aside from the final four minutes in Game 1. Ultimately, the Warriors should be up 2-0 in this series. Instead of dwelling on that miraculous Game 1 loss, the Warriors came out with a “we can do this” attitude and survived a 14-2 third quarter run by the Spurs before putting them away in the fourth. Golden State is not all Steph Curry either. Klay Thompson had 29 points at halftime, including five second-quarter three-pointers, and he turned a three-point lead into a 19-point margin over 11 second-quarter minutes. His shooting swung the momentum and on top of that, Thompson defended Parker for stretches, helping limit the All-Star guard from getting the Spurs’ offense functioning at top capacity.
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The Spurs can’t focus on one guy. Too much attention to Curry and Thompson will go off. Both Andrew Bogut and Thompson can rebound as good as or better than any player on the Spurs. The Warriors have the better shooters, they have a ton of confidence and they have been unbeatable at home in these playoffs. The Spurs defeated a physically and mentally beaten down Lakers squad in the first round. They were a 9-point choice in Game 1 over the Warriors and a 7½-point choice in Game 2. They didn’t come close to covering in either game and had no business winning Game 1. The Warriors continue to be undervalued and should not be skipped over spotting a cheap price at home. The Warriors don’t need any pep talks.
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N.Y. Rangers +122 over WASHINGTONSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. We saw the Kings lose the first two games of their series in St. Louis before rallying at home and subsequently winning the pivotal game five on the road. The Rangers are in the same boat and there’s no reason they can’t duplicate L.A.’s success. The Rangers are drawing a lot more penalties than the Caps and that suggests that Washington may be a step behind. Over the past three games, the Caps have had just seven PP opportunities while the Rangers have had 13 opportunities over that same span. Killing penalties takes its toll and the Rangers are like a prize fighter that keeps jabbing to the body to set up the knockout punch later in the fight. That time has come now.
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With momentum on their side, the Rangers come into this one having scored four goals in back-to-back games. It’s also worth noting that the Capitals have a horrible history of choking in the playoffs. It’s actually quite remarkable. In 1985, 1987, 1992, 1995, 1996, 2003, 2009 and 2010, the Caps were up 2-0 or 3-1 in all those series and went on to lose. Of course, those have nothing to do with the outcome tonight but what it does is put a little more doubt in the collective minds of the Capitals. In pivotal game 5’s, the Caps are 10-20 all time, instilling even a little more doubt. The Rangers have held Alex Ovechkin scoreless in the past two games and that, too, is a notable adjustment, as they continue to limit OV’s space out there. The Rangers have outplayed the Caps in three of the four games so far. The Blue Shirts suddenly have a swagger about them that was missing for most of the year and one can just feel the Rangers taking over this series. With that, New York offers up all the value in this one, as they appear primed to deliver the proverbial knockout punch.
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ST. LOUIS -1½ +143 over ColoradoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rockies are slowly coming back down to earth. After a scorching start that saw them win 13 of their first 17 games, the Rockies are now just four games above .500 with just six wins in their past 17 games. Jon Garland has had four quality starts in six tries but he pitches about as well as Lindsay Lohan handles her money in Hollywood after a bender. In 36 innings, Garland has struck out 17 batters while walking 10. In other words, he pitches to contact. With a WHIP of 1.42, a line-drive rate of 30% and a xERA of 5.03, the only thing on the horizon for Garland is regression.
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Shelby Miller has fulfilled his ace potential so far, both on the surface (1.96 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) and beneath it. Miller has 38 K’s in 37 innings, 11 walks and a 45% groundball rate. With a tweak in control against LH bats, Miller could have even more upside, given his elite command vs. RH bats. This is an elite young talent that is certainly worth riding, especially with this Cardinal offense behind him against Garland.
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Philadelphia +143 over ARIZONAFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1st 5 innings. The Phillies bullpen has a 4.27 ERA this year while the Diamondbacks pen has a nifty 2.87 ERA and it’s for that reason that we’ll play this pup in the first five innings only. Ian Kennedy has some nice skills but those skills may not be best suited for this park. This is the seventh straight season that Kennedy has a fly-ball bias profile. He has a 34%/40% GB/FB profile this season and when you throw in his 26% line-drive rate at this park, it makes him a high risk low reward proposition. With those batted ball percentages it should come as no surprise that Kennedy has one win in three starts at Chase Field with an ERA of 5.49. Kennedy’s fly-ball rate has been increasing over his past five starts to 43% and his GB rate over that same span has decreased to 33%. The Diamondbacks have won four straight but it came against the reeling Dodgers and they are just a game above .500 at home.
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Philadelphia is 8-10 both at home and on the road. They are a middle of the pack outfit that will rarely sweep anyone or rarely get swept because they have some solid starting pitching. The Phillies have recalled Tyler Cloyd from Triple-A Lehigh Valley for this start. Cloyd bears watching. In six starts with the Phils last year, obviously a small sample size, he put up some solid skills right across the board despite the 4.91 ERA. Pay more attention to his 3o K’s in those 33 innings against just seven walks. Cloyd got off to a very slow start with Triple-A Lehigh Valley but seems to have righted the ship there in his last few starts. Notably on Saturday, Cloyd struck out 10 and walked none over eight innings against Indianapolis. Soft-tosser with great movement and excellent control was lights-out at AAA, with a 12-1 record and 2.35 ERA. He has a chance to stick around for a long time because he knows how to pitch. Cloyd offers up some tremendous profit potential so we’ll step in right away when his stock is low.
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Miami +125 over LOS ANGELESFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Unlike the Dodgers, at least the Marlins know they are losers. Miami’s projected win total for the year was the second lowest in baseball while the experts suggested that the Dodgers will contend. Keep listening to the “so-called” experts and you’ll go broke fast. These are the same folks that also said the Blue Jays and Angels could meet in the ALCS. In any event, the Dodgers have dropped seven in a row and their 111 runs scored are the second worst in the majors. Matt Magill has made two starts at this level and there are plenty of signs of trouble. He’s already walked six batters in eight innings along with 10 hits for a 2.00 WHIP. Once you cross over a 1.50 WHIP, the minor leagues are not far behind and the only reason that Magill is pitching at this level is because of numerous injuries to the Dodgers starting staff. Magill has steadily progressed through the LA system since 2008 with a 3.77 ERA and .237 opp BA in 532.2 IP over that span. He does not possess typical starter stuff, relying on a slider/change-up combo but the results worked for him in the minors and he’ll keep testing it out at this level. Magill’s fastball is below average, topping out at 91 mph. Slider is his only plus offering and he uses it quite often to miss a lot of bats but he’s also erratic with it and these major league hitters are not going to swing away like they do in the minors. It may surprise you to learn that only seven teams in the majors have struck out fewer times than these Marlins The tell-tale sign of a successful transition to the majors will be whether or not he can get hitters to chase his slider consistently but so far the answer to that is no.
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Jose Fernandez was recalled from the minors earlier than expected. After seeing his raw stuff, maybe it shouldn't have been so surprising. He has the fifth-highest average fastball velocity in MLB at 94.7 mph and it's a pitch that has a ton of horizontal movement. All of that has added up to these impressive skills: 32 K’s and 12 walks in 31 innings and a 53% groundball rate. This kid is the real deal. Fernandez has a very athletic frame that supports his strong arsenal of pitches. He throws a plus, plus sinking FB ranging from 93-97 that can top out at 99, a plus, plus slow curveball, a late breaking slider, and a change-up that has above-average potential and showing steady improvement. The Fish won’t win many games this season but Fernandez always gives them a chance and against the reeling Dodgers, their chances increase even more.
Bob Balfe
Giants / Braves Over 7
This is a playoff type preview with two awesome pitchers however both starters have been a little shaky this year and have given up a decent amount of home runs. Both teams hit the ball pretty well last night in the Braves 6-3 victory. Both teams left a combined 15 men on base last night. I like what I am seeing from these teams and as boring as baseball can be this early in the year this is a game worth watching. Take the Over.
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Orioles / Twins Over 8.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Jason Hammel had a surprise breakout season for the Orioles last year, delivering a 3.43 ERA over 20 starts. While he was sidelined for a big chunk of the season his strong early season start helped keep Baltimore in the race. Hammel is already 5-1 this season but his numbers are not as impressive. Hammel owns a 4.10 ERA but his xFIP is nearly a full run higher at 5.01. Hammel has also walked 11 batters over his last four starts. Hammel has allowed at least two runs in every start and he has surrendered 41 hits in 41 innings. His WHIP over his last three starts is 1.59 despite going 3-0 with strong run support and some good fortune.
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Mike Pelfrey was a bit of a gamble for the Minnesota Twins as a free agent signing this winter. Pelfrey is coming off missing almost the entire 2012 season and was not an effective pitcher in his last healthy season in 2011. The results have been mixed but mostly marginal for Pelfrey in his move the American League. Last week’s start against Cleveland was by far his best of the season and while it was encouraging Pelfrey had surrendered 19 runs in his previous four starts, spanning only 17 innings. At Target Field Pelfrey owns a 5.40 ERA with a 1.73 WHIP and he only has 14 strikeouts in 28 innings with half of those coming in his last start.
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Minnesota and Baltimore both feature bullpens that have been successful early this season but these are two offenses that have had recent success as well. In the last 10 games the Twins are scoring over 5.2 runs per game coming off a great series in Boston with 31 runs scored in taking three out of four games. Baltimore has scored 5.4 runs per game this season against right-handed pitching and that number is closer to 5.6 runs over the last 10 games with the Orioles batting .276 in those match-ups. The ‘over’ is 7-2 in the last nine Baltimore road games and Target Field has averaged nearly nine runs per game this season despite featuring the fewest home runs of any park in baseball.
NHL Predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs +½
So far in this series we’ve taken the Leafs +170 and won that bet, and then lost our bet on the Leafs +122 on Wednesday in overtime. Tonight I come back on Toronto +0.5 in regulation getting a solid +111. For those newer bettors this means the Leafs can win outright or just force overtime to cash this wager. Toronto has been right in this series, but finds themselves in a must-win situation down 3-1. They have already won in Boston once and will need another big effort to win. Watching this series I’ve noticed that Leafs goalie James Reimer is playing better than the score may indicate. A number of the goals have been deflections or bounced off someone’s body and in the net. The moneyline in this game has the Leafs +185 but already winning one in Boston and this series being a shot off the post from 2-2 I think we have some value on Toronto. Instead of taking Toronto to win I will take the generous price with them +0.5 in regulation time.
John Ryan
Oakland at Seattle
Prediction: Under
The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 7 runs will be scored in this game. Oakland is 44-22 UNDER (+19.3 Units)facing a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons. Oakland has been slumping of late losers of four straight and six of the past eight. In this situation thjey are a solid 11-0 UNDER (+11.1 Units) in road games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. Both starters are in solid form, especially Hisashi Iwakuma. he has posted a 1.61 ERA with a 0.761 WHIP, allowing just 26 hits, eight walks, while striking out 42 batters spanning 44 2/3 innings of work. Oakland has a solid bullpen adn both teasm struggle to hit.
Nelly
Miami Marlins + over Los Angeles Dodgers
Top prospect Jose Fernandez has lived up to the billing so far this season with a 3.48 ERA through six starts and a great strikeout count with 32 in 31 innings, while allowing just 12 walks. The Marlins are just 10-25 on the season but 3-3 behind Fernandez and his FIP is just 3.00, suggesting he could produce even better numbers in upcoming starts. Miami scored just one run in the last series in San Diego and the offense has been damaged by injuries and limited to begin with. Rookie Matt Magill has been far less promising than Fernandez however, allowing seven runs in eight innings in his two starts for the Dodgers. His two starts have come at Dodger Stadium and AT&T Park, two of the lowest scoring parks in MLB historically as well. Magill has allowed six walks in eight innings and he could be just what the struggling Marlins need right now to get the offense on track. The Dodgers only have three more wins than the Marlins despite a payroll that is more than four times greater. Los Angeles has now lost seven consecutive games while topping three runs scored in just two of the last 11 games. The offensive numbers are frighteningly similar for these teams despite the big name stars in the Los Angeles lineup and the complete lack of proven MLB talent in the current Miami lineup. Miami has also featured a solid bullpen this season, featuring a 2.53 ERA over the last 10 games. Compare that to a 5.25 ERA for the Dodgers over the last 10 games and knowing that Magill is very unlikely to go deep into this game with just eight career MLB innings under his belt. Backing Miami in any situation is a bit risky but the Dodgers are an undeserving favorite.
Teddy Covers
Atlanta at San Francisco
Play: Atlanta
The Braves are hitting significantly better than the Giants right now. Tim Hudson is in better current form than Matt Cain. Atlanta’s bullpen is every bit as good as that of the Giants, and they’re the fresher of the two pens following yesterday’s short outing from Ryan Vogelsong and the Giants extra inning affair the night before. Put it all together and we’ve got a ‘wrong team favored’ scenario in play tonight!
Atlanta has been scoring runs in bunches; 38 of them in their last six games, with previously slumping guys like Brian McCann (finally healthy), Dan Uggla and BJ Upton showing signs of life (five hits, four RBI and three runs scored last night), while Andeltron Simmons has delivered eleven hits in the last five games as an emerging table setter. Meanwhile, the Giants season long struggle to plate runs hasn’t changed one iota of late, held to four runs or less in eight of their last nine at home including six of seven on their current homestand.
Matt Cain is a big name, big price tag pitcher who simply isn’t living up to expectations. The results don’t lie. The Giants are 2-5 in Cain’s starts this year, including a 1-4 mark the five times he was the favorite! He’s been struggling with the gopher ball, allowing nine dingers in his last five trips to the hill. Cain’s ‘swing and miss’ rate on pitches in the strike zone is way down this year – he’s just not overpowering or fooling batters on a consistent basis.
Atlanta is 5-2 with Tim Hudson on the hill this year, and he’s thrown five quality starts in his last six tries. Hudson threw seven innings of five hit, one run ball in a 7-1 victory on his last visit to San Francisco. That’s one of six consecutive dominant efforts in his last six tries against the Giants, dating back to the start of the 2010 season – a 1.76 ERA and .205 batting average against over 46 innings of work. Expect more of the same tonight!
MLB Predictions
Athletics / Mariners Under 6.5
Oakland enter's this series 18-18 on the year and 9-10 on the road. They've lost 4 straight and 5 of their last 6 games while scoring just 8 runs over their lat 4 games. Seattle is 16-19 on the year and 9-8 at home and they are entering this series after splitting two games with Pittsburgh and then a day off yesterday. The Mariners are 27th overall in runs scored this year with 120 in 35 games (just 3.43 runs per game). While the Athletics lead the majors with 179 runs scored they are off to a slow start in May hitting just .218 as a team (26th). The Mariners are dead last in the MLB with a .199 team batting average so far in May. The A's will send Dan Straily to the mound for his 4th start of the year. He is 1-0 with a 5.94 ERA, .250 OBA and 1.20 WHIP. He has had some tough luck and given his OBA, WHIP and strikeout to walk ratio of 21:4 he hasn't been pitching too poorly. Last year over 7 starts with Oakland he was 2-1 witha 3.89 ERA. Seattle has Hisashi Iwakuma on the mound who is 3-1 on the year with a 1.61 ERA, .168 OBA and 0.76 WHIP. He has given up 1 or fewer earned runs against in 5 of his 7 starts (the other two were 2 and 3 earned runs against). In three home starts he is 1-0 with a 0.48 ERA, .143 OBA and 0.59 WHIP. The UNDER is 7-3-2 in the Mariners last 12 games as a home favorite, 3-0-1 in Iwakuma's last 4 home starts, and 5-1 in his last 6 starts overall. The UNDER is also 8-3-1 in these two teams last 12 meetings in Seattle. I like this starting pitching match up and these two teams aren't hitting the ball right now. Even with a lower total I like the value on the UNDER as this should be a low scoring ball game.
Wunderdog
San Antonio at Golden State
Pick: Golden State -2.5
It took them 31 games to get it right, but the Golden State. Warriors broke a 30 game road losing streak at San Antonio in Game Two to even the series at one. The Spurs have to feel fortunate to be heading to Golden State tied in the series, as it took a miraculous late comeback in Game One to pull off a double-overtime win. No team has been getting the money like Golden State, who has covered 11 straight games. That has proven indicative of things to come as teams on an eight or longer game ATS winning streaks in the playoffs are 17-4-3 ATS over the last 24 occurrences. It goes deeper than that, however, as the Warriors have left the Spurs with no answers trying to cover all the shooters for Golden State. Each of the top seven scorers for Golden State is averaging 46% or more from the field. San Antonio caught a break facing a depleted Lakers team in the first round, as they have played poorly down the stretch finishing the regular season a woeful 3-15 ATS in their last 18. Play on Golden State.