Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday May, 11

Sam Martin

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Texas Rangers

We'll back Texas here tonight in a battle of two good pitchers, but while we give a slight advantage to the Rangers in pitching behind Yu Darvish, we give Texas a massive advantage offensively against the struggling Angels, and expect their offense to carry them to a victory. Darvish is in a bounce-back spot here after suffering his first loss of the season (4-1 record, 5-1 team start record), and he'll face an Angels lineup that is hitting just .249 on the season and even worse .225 away from home this season. Texas offense much better, hitting .293 as a team this year and .311 in games against left-handed starters. LA won't score much against Darvish, and Texas lineup paves the way for an easy win!

Rob Vinciletti

Cubs vs. Brewers
Play: Under 7.5

This game fits the nice totals system below which simply plays to the under for road favorites like the Cubs that are off a home dog win and scored 4 or less runs, vs an opponent like the Brewers that come in off a loss. The Brewers are hitting just .227 vs right handed pitching and are scoring 3 runs per game the past week. The Cubs are scoring 2.6 runs per game and hitting .206 vs left handers. In the Month of May so far the Cubs have gone under in 7 of 8 games and 8 of 12 off a win. They have Matt Garza on the mound tonight and he has a fine 2.67 era this season. Rany Wolf goes for the Brewers and he has stayed under in each of his alst 3 starts vs the Cubs. Look for a lower scoring game here resulting in an under.

David Chan

Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays

I bet value where I see it and expect Toronto to come away with a victory tonight.

The Jays' (18-14) Kyle Drabek (2-3, 3.34 ERA) is set to square off against the Twins' (8-23) Nick Blackburn on the mound this evening.

Drabek has now lost three in a row after giving up five runs off eight hits, with five walks to go along with just two strikeouts vs. the Angels last Saturday; his team would go on to lose 6-2.

Drabek's previous two losses were of the "hard luck" category, and his last start was by far his worst of the year.

I believe Drabek can return to form here against the soft hitting Twins though; the right-hander had not allowed more than two runs in any of his previous five starts before that hiccup.

Simply put, Blackburn has been brutal this year; his ineffectiveness continued on Sunday vs. Seattle when he gave up five runs off seven hits while issuing three walks over six frames of work; his team would go on to lose 5-2.

The beleaguered right-hander has just 14 strikeouts to eight walks on the year, giving up a whopping 34 hits over his 26 1/3's innings of work.

The Jays love playing the Twins on their home field; after yesterday's 6-2 win, Toronto has now won 13 of 15 in Minnesota, outscoring the Twins 53-19 in that span (it is also 7-1 all-time at Target Field).

Keep your eyes on Toronto's Edwin Encarnacion who is hitting .414 with five home runs and 12 RBIs at Target Field; also Yunel Escobar who is 11 for 21 in his last five games in Minnesota.

A pitching mis-match; a slugging mis-match; when coupled with what I feel is a very favorable line, the play in this one is definitely on Toronto!

Ben Burns

Astros @ Pirates
PICK: Under7.5

The Pirates have been a low-scoring team this season, very profitable for "under" bettors. We won with them going "under" the total recently and I feel that this one could also prove low-scoring.

McDonald checks in with a 2-1 record and a stellar 2.70 ERA and 1.091 WHIP. He's averaging better than six innings through his six starts and has allowed only two home runs all season. In three home starts, he's got an outstanding 1.86 ERA and 0.931 WHIP.

Admittedly, Norris hasn't been quite as good as McDonald. He was very stingy last time out though, as he allowed just three hits and a single unearned run, through six complete innings. In three of his last four starts vs. the Pirates, including each of his last two at Pittsburgh, Norris has gone at least seven complete innings, while allowing three or fewer earned runs.

As for McDonald, he's got a 2.48 ERA in five starts vs. Houston. His last two starts vs. the Astros saw him allow one run, on just three hits, through 7 1/3 innings and two runs (one earned) through six innings. Those games had final scores of 0-2 and 3-1. Consider the Under.

Sean Murphy

Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays

We won with the Blue Jays in the opener of this series on Thursday, a wire-to-wire laugher that was never in doubt.

We'll go right back to the well on Friday, as Toronto goes up against another Twins starter that is barely hanging on at the big league level in Nick Blackburn.

Financially, it makes sense to keep Blackburn in the bigs, but let's face it, he's struggling as badly as any starter in the game right now. Through five starts, Blackburn is 0-4 with a 6.84 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. He's been at his absolute worst here at Target Field, going 0-2 with a 7.53 ERA in three starts.

Blackburn's struggles are nothing new. He's never posted a winning season at this level, and has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball over the course of his five-year career as a starter. He's been able to get by thanks to a terrific team surrounding him over the years, but that certainly isn't the case anymore.

Toronto will counter with another one of its talented young pitchers in Kyle Drabek. He's pitched better than his 2-3 record would seem to indicate, posting a 3.34 ERA through six outings. Drabek was roughed up in his last start against the Angels, but prior to that had held each of his first five opponents to two earned runs or less.

This will be Drabek's second career start against the Twins. In his lone outing against them last year, he gave up only one earned run on one hit over seven innings in a 6-1 Jays victory.

The Jays bullpen is in much better shape now that Francisco Cordero has been demoted from the closer's role. This is a team that's playing with a renewed sense of confidence, having gone 4-3 on their current road trip, and now coming off back-to-back wins.

The Twins on the other hand, appear poised to go on another lengthy losing streak following consecutive losses (they've already suffered five losing streaks lasting at least three games this season). With just three victories in their last 17 wins, there's little reason for optimism in Minnesota these days.

Freddy Wills

Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees
Play: Seattle Mariners

Why not the Mariners are 6-1 in his last 7 starts vs. the Yankees and over his last three starts in New York he has given up 1 ER in 24 innings while allowing just 11 hits. That's absolute domination something he's pretty customed to of late as he posts a 2-1 record and 0.78 ERA over his last three starts. Hernandez faces a Yankees team that's not hitting of late with just 3.29 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 games combined. Meanwhile the Mariners bullpen has picked up its pace over their last 10 games posting a 1.69 ERA to back up Felix.

Yankees send Kuroda to the mound who has been more lucky than good he posts a 4.16 xFIP as he has just 5.50 K/9 with 3BB/9. He has one start against the Mariners and it wasn't a good one back in 2009 going 6.1 IP allowing 8 hits and 4 ER. Seattle is not as bad offensively as everyone thinks especially on the road where they rank 15th in OPS. Most of their offensive struggles come from playing in their own ball park which is built more for the pitchers. I think we see an advantage from King Felix because he has an out pitch with his cutter. The Yankees are ranked 23rd vs. the cutter and that good be a major advantage on Friday.

Notable Hot Starters:
James McDonald (2-1, 1.00 WHIP, 2.14 ERA)
Johan Santana (3-0, 1.02 WHIP, 1.83 ERA)
Gio Gonzalez (2-1, 0.89 WHIP, 1.42 ERA)
Madison Bumgarner (3-0, 0.88WHIP, 1.25 ERA)
Chris Capuano (3-0, 0.97 WHIP, 0.44 ERA)
Hiroki Kuroda (1-2, 1.17 WHIP, 2.50 ERA)
Jeremy Hellickson (2-1, 1.26 WHIP, 2.16 ERA)
Yu Darvish (2-1, 1.17 WHIP, 1.69 ERA)
Gavin Floyd (2-1, 0.71 WHIP, 1.71 ERA)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
On Wednesday we gave you Billingsley as the best shot to win for a cold pitcher and he did win over Tim Lincecum. On Friday our pick is Nick Blackburn who is 0-3 with a 1.80 WHIP and a 7.80 ERA over his last three starts, but he starts at home against the Blue Jays who he has good numbers against. The Jays are a shell of themselves when they are not hitting at home in the dome and they put Kyle Drabek to the mound who is fading fast like he did a year ago.

Notable Cold Starters:
Chris Leake (0-3, 1.59 WHIP, 6.06 ERA)
Matt Minor (2-1, 1.90 WHIP, 9.35 ERA)
Clay Bucholz (2-1, 2.30 WHIP, 9.19 ERA)
Todd Milone (2-1, 1.19 WHIP, 6.11 ERA)

Dave Cokin

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers
Pick: Los Angeles Angels

The Rangers are off a doubleheader on Thursday, while the Angels enjoyed a day off. Huge early season tilt for the Halos, one they could really use, and a motivated CJ Wilson returning to face his old team looks like a plus. I'll take the price with the Angels.

Jim Feist

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Chicago Cubs

Milwaukee used to be a dominant team at home and struggle on the road. Now they are struggling everywhere with injuries to an offense that ranks 26th in batting average and 27th in on-base percentage. They are struck with aging lefty Randy Wolf (6.68 ERA), who has been awful allowing 59 base runners in 32 innings. He's 6-11 with a 4.22 ERA against the Cubs, too. Chicago goes with ace Matt Garza (2-1, 2.67 ERA), who has more strikeouts than innings pitched and has allowed just 20 hits in 33+ innings! The Brewers are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. And the Cubs are 9-2 in Garza's last 11 starts. Play the Cubs.

SPORTS WAGERS

Houston +128 over PITTSBURGH

The Pirates own baseball’s worst offense, averaging just 2.86 runs per game. They’re overvalued here because of opposing pitcher, Bud Norris’s 4.58 ERA and 7.38 road ERA. However, Norris has a xERA of 3.76 because of strong skills that show a strong BB/K ratio of 13/33 in 37 frames, a groundball bias profile and a low strand percentage of 70%. His skills are almost identical to last year’s in which he posted a 3.77 ERA so you know his numbers should stabilize. Norris is a decent pitcher with unlucky results so far. The Astros have been competitive. They’re 6-4 in their past 10 and they’re just three games under .500. They’ll face James McDonald and his 2.70 ERA. In 101 starts prior to this season, McDonald’s ERA was 3.90 so don’t expect his numbers to hold up. He has a fly-ball profile and his pitch mix is the exact same as last season’s. In other words, McDonald hasn’t added anything to his arsenal other than good fortune and while he is serviceable, he’s not a 2.70 ERA pitcher. Numbers rarely lie and we'll take advantage of that here. Play: Houston +128 (Risking 2 units).

Atlanta +129 over ST. LOUIS

St. Louis and Atlanta feature the number two and three offenses in MLB respectively. Lefty Mike Minor is a true value candidate because of his 5.97 ERA and we’ll gladly take back the price offered here with this solid pitcher. Minor’s misleading ERA is a direct result of an extremely low strand percentage of 57%. His xERA sits more than two runs lower than his actual ERA at 3.57. Minor has 34 k’s and 12 walks in 38 innings pitched. Jaime Garcia’s strikeout rate is down and his numbers show a dramatic decrease after pitching through the lineup a couple of times. His xERA is 4.10 and the only edge he has over Minor is a higher groundball rate. Garcia is good but the value here is on the Braves and on buy-low candidate Mike Minor. Play: Atlanta +129 (Risking 2 units). Chicago -107 over MILWAUKEE Pinnacle Chicago took two of three from both the Dodgers and Braves and have now won six of 10. That’s a serious confidence booster for this club and now they'll have their ace on the mound against the reeling Brewers, who will counter with southpaw Randy Wolf. Wolf has allowed 47 hits in 32.1 innings for a BAA of .336. Wolf has issued 12 BB’s while striking out 19. Wolf has been outpitching his skills for years and much of that can be attributed to pitching with the lead on some very good teams. The Brewers are playing from behind most of the time this season, putting more pressure on Wolf and therefore his poor skills are catching up to him. Matt Garza pulled off an impressive league switch to the NL in 2011. His first five starts of 2012 have been even better and none of it is a fluke. He’s struck out 36 in 34 frames and that bodes well here against a Brewer team that has struck out 251 times, the second worst mark in the majors. Garza’s looks to be making a run at the league's top tier of starting pitchers with an ERA of 2.67, which is right in line with his xERA of 2.86. Play: Chicago -107 (Risking 2.17 units to win 2).

JR O'Donnell

Cleveland Indians +105

We've got the game beginning at 7:10 PM EST tonight as the Cleveland Indians (17-13, 11-7 as a dog & 9-3 away) visit the Boston Red Sox ( 12-18, 8-15 as a favorite & 4-10 at home). We like the Indians not because of their starter Ubaldo Jimenez (3-2, 4,04 ERA & 1.60 WHIP), but because of the Bosox starter Clay Bucholz who has been battered to the tune of a 9.09 ERA & 2.02 WHIP. He is 3-1 overall, but because of the circumstances of the Sox "O" rising up to bail him out. He has given up at least "5" earned runs in his "6" starts with a .343 batting average. Besides some rough control, Jimenez has been strong, and the Tribe has been really excellent on the road, and nobody is fearing the Bosox in Fenway at this point.

Matt Fargo

Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Washington Nationals

Washington was able to salvage a game against the Pirates thanks to a strong pitching performance from Stephen Strasburg. The Nationals were again able to take over first place in the National League East by a half-game over the Braves and they will be looking to get back to over .500 on the road with a win tonight. Washington took three of four from the Reds in their first series this season at home and the Nationals are now 23-8 in their last 31 games following a win. Cincinnati returns home following a 4-2 roadtrip as it took a series each from Pittsburgh and Milwaukee. The Reds entered the roadtrip right at .500 so they are now two games over .500 and trail the Cardinals by 3.5 games in the National League Central. The offense has been stumbling as it is hitting only .232 on the season including .237 at home and while the pitching has been the strength, that won't be the case tonight. The Reds are 5-23 in their last 28 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Mike Leake has not pitched well this season as he is 0-4 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in five starts. He has tossed just tow quality starts on the year and while he is coming off a quality outing in his last game, the last time he was coming off one, he was hit hard for five runs in 6.1 innings and it happened to come against Washington as well. He has allowed seven home run in his five starts and in two home starts, the Reds have averaged only 2.5 rpg of run support. Gio Gonzalez so far has been one of the best off-season acquisitions in all of baseball as he has been spectacular. His first start for the Nationals was not a good one as he allowed four runs in 3.2 innings against the Cubs but since then, he has tossed five straight quality outings to lower his ERA to 1.72 to go along with a 0.90 WHIP. Washington has won five of his six starts and that includes a win over the Reds as Gonzalez shut them down, allowing no runs on two hits in seven innings.

Jimmy Boyd

St. Louis Cardinals -128

The Cards have the edge tonight as southpaws Mike Minor and Jaime Garcia go toe-to-toe. Minor has an ERA of 6.75 through 4 road starts this season. The Braves have won 3 of those starts because they have supported him well, but they'll have their work cut out for themselves against Garcia, who is carrying an ERA of just 2.57 at home. It is also worth noting that Garcia is 2-0 in 2 career home starts versus the Braves, giving up only 3 earned runs in 13 innings of work. The Braves, who are batting .241 and scoring 4.7 runs/game against lefty starters, are 5-13 in their last 18 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Cards, meanwhile, who are batting .315 and scoring 7.3 runs/game off southpaw starters, are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Braves are 1-9 in their last 10 games as an underdog and 0-6 in their last 6 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. They are just 1-6 in their last 7 meetings with the Cards and 0-7 in their last 7 meetings in St. Louis. We'll take the Cardinals.

David Banks

Los Angeles Clippers +1.5

Well, the Memphis Grizzlies (43-28, 31-39-1 ATS) did what they had to do by winning Game 5 to extend this series, but the Los Angeles Clippers (43-28, 35-35-1 ATS) still now get a chance to close things out at home with a 3-2 series lead. The home team has won every game in this series since Memphis's historical home meltdown in Game 1 where it blew a 27-point lead, and that horrific loss could now prove to be the difference in this series, which would make for a long off-season for the Grizzlies. The Clippers go for the kill Friday night at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, CA at 9:00 ET on ESPN.

This series has been highlighted by teams blowing big leads, mostly on the Grizzlies' end, and even though they won 92-80 on Wednesday, even that win came with some uncomfortable moments. Memphis was up by 24 points in the third quarter before the Clippers closed the stanza on a 14-2 run. Then, the Clips' two All-Stars Chris Paul and Blake Griffin both missed much of the fourth quarter with injuries as Paul re-aggravated his groin injury and Griffin hyper-extended his left knee, and yet Los Angeles still drew within six points on a couple of occasions, most recently at 85-79 with 55 seconds left although the Clips could not make another field goal after that. Still, the continued lack of composure by the Grizzlies when they have held big leads in this series is disconcerting to say the least. The news was not all negative for Memphis though as Zach Randolph finally resembled the player he was before injuring his knee early this season as he had 19 points and 10 rebounds, and Marc Gasol also had his best game of the series with 23 points. It was also a good sign that the Grizz was able to win with a less than sparkling performance from Mike Conley, who had just nine points and six assists. Memphis will probably need all three of those players to come up big if it hopes to steal its first road win of this series at a venue where the Clippers are now 26-9 straight up this season.

Then again, getting the road win would be a lot easier if Paul and/or Griffin were out for Game 6, but Griffin actually re-entered Game 5 and finished the game and Paul is currently listed as probable despite grimacing in pain during his limited second-half minutes. Both players will be reevaluated Thursday, but the feeling is that if they can walk, they will play. That being the case, look for a much faster start from the Clippers than in Game 5 on the road, as they obviously do not want to be put in the position of needing yet another humongous comeback. They shot just 37.1 percent from the floor in Memphis Wednesday after shooting 47.1 percent and 44.7 percent in the previous two games here at home, so you can probably expect them to get back closer to those figures here with the return to La-La Land. Again though, they do need both Paul and Griffin to be fully functional, or at least close to it.

Game 5 continued a familiar pattern that has now seen the home teams go 7-1 straight up (oh that Game 1) in all the head-to-head meetings between these clubs this year including the regular season as well as 5-2-1 against the spread. Also, the 'under' is now 5-2 in the last seven meetings at Staples Center.

Teddy Covers

Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays

The Minnesota Twins have picked up right where they left off in 2011 – an absolute bottom feeder. Ron Gardenhire’s team went 13-43 down the stretch last year, and they are 8-23 so far this season, playing .241 baseball for the last 3 ½ months of regular season action. This team has virtually no homefield edge at Target Field. Their lineup is anemic on a good day, dead last in the AL in runs scored. That lineup is ice cold right now, held to three runs or less in nine of their last ten ballgames. Minnesota’s bullpen is mediocre at best. Today’s starter, struggling Nick Blackburn, has guided the team to an 0-5 record in his five previous starts this season, and his 6.84 ERA and .312 batting average against are not mirages!

The Blue Jays have a long track record of struggles against their top notch AL East foes combined with success against the other two AL divisions that they face. There’s been no change in that regard so far in 2012 – the Jays are 4-8 in division but 14-6 out of division. That gives savvy bettors a good starting point to approach the Blue Jays – this is a team we want to support when stepping down in class.

The Jays have absolutely dominated this series. They outscored the Twins 44-14 while winning five out of six against Minnesota last year and won easily again last night (6-2). That’s nothing new or different! Toronto is 26-7 in the last 33 meetings between these two teams and 13-2 in their last 15 games in Minneapolis. Blue Jays starter Kyle Drabek has thrown four quality starts in his last five trips to the hill, and Toronto’s suspect bullpen has slammed the door shut in each of their last two games on this road trip. That makes the modest price with the favorite very reasonable for us to lay this evening. Take Toronto.