Lenny Del Genio
Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Washington Nationals
Big time pitching mismatch here in favor of the Nats, who send Gio Gonzalez to the hill to oppose the Reds' Mike Leake. Gonzalez has already shut out this Cincinnati lineup over seven innings (allowed only two hits!) earlier this season, one of three consecutive starts that saw the southpaw not allow a single run. He is coming off another nice showing last time out, going seven innings and allowing just 1 ER and 4 hits against Philadelphia. Going back to his days in Oakland, Gonzalez has a 31-10 team start record as a favorite. Meanwhile, there are few superlatives that can be used concerning Reds' starter Leake, who has a 5.96 ERA in six starts and has yet to win. He allowed five runs in a start vs. Washington earlier this year. Cincinnati beat Milwaukee Wednesday, but is 40-56 off a win L2 seasons and 7-18 after allowing one run or less in their previous game. Washington got back on track behind Strasburg last night in Pittsburgh and it will carry over here.
Bryan Power
Indians @ Red Sox
PICK: Over 10
What a nightmare season this is turning into for Bobby Valentine and Boston. Josh Beckett was hammered by the Indians in last night's series opener, the Red Sox third straight loss & eighth in the last nine games. Their pitching has basically been terrible all season and don't expect that to change Friday with Clay Buchholz getting the start. Buchholz has posted a 9.09 ERA in his first six starts, allowing at least five earned runs in every outing.
Boston has gone Over in 20 of 30 games so far this season, including 17 of 21 when the total is in the 8.5 to 10 range. This is because of not only their terrible pitching, but what remains a strong offense. Sure they only managed three runs last night, but they are averaging 5.3 runs per game this season. Cleveland's offense is no slouch either as they come in averaging 5.9 runs per game this season on the road where they are now 10-3.
Ubaldo Jimenez gets the start tonight for the Indians. He pitched well last time out, but is not the same guy from two years ago in Colorado. He has a terrible WHIP of 2.361 in three road starts thus far. I look for these teams to 'light up' the Fenway scoreboard tonight.
Dave Price
NY Mets +115
The Mets are showing value at this price with ace Johan Santana on the bump. The Mets have won 4 of his 6 starts on the season, during which he has posted an ERA of 2.61. He's been extremely dialed in recently. The Mets have won his last 3 starts and he's posted an ERA of only 1.83 in those outings. Also, Santana is 6-1 with an ERA of 1.46 in 10 career starts versus the Marlins. Buehrle has pitched well but not as well as Santana. The Fish have lost 4 of his 6 starts on the season. We'll bet the Mets.
Steve Janus
Chicago Cubs -111
The Chicago Cubs have quietly started to play a lot better baseball, and I think they are favored at Milwaukee for good reason tonight. The Cubs will send out Matt Garza against Randy Wolf, and I don't think there is any question Chicago has the edge on the mound. Garza is 2-1 with a 2.67 ERA and 0.891 WHIP in five starts. He has been on top of his game against the Brewers in the past, going 3-1 with a 3.07 ERA in four starts.
Wolf has really struggled to get opposing batters out, and as a result he is just 2-3 with a 6.68 ERA and 1.825 WHIP. You know a pitcher is struggling when they struggle at San Francisco and San Diego, which is where Wolf's last two starts took place. He allowed 7 runs on 18 hits in 11 innings over those two starts. While Chicago has had their struggles offensively, I think there is a good chance they put up 4-5 runs tonight. Plenty of run-support for Garza to secure the win and cash our bet!
Jack Jones
San Francisco Giants -119
The San Francisco Giants are showing solid value as a small road favorite in Game 1 of this series with the Arizona Diamondbacks. San Francisco has the superior starter on the mound tonight in Madison Bumgarner, and I'll ride him to victory in this one.
Bumgarner was one of the most underrated starters in the league last season. The lefty went 13-13 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.212 WHIP with 191 strikeouts in 204 2/3 innings. Bumgarner has picked up right where he left off, going 5-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.077 WHIP through six starts in 2012.
He'll be opposed by Pat Corbin, who is no more than a fill-in starter for Arizona. Corbin is 1-1 with a 7.00 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in two starts this season. Bumgarner has had solid success against the Diamondbacks in the past, going 3-1 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.278 WHIP in six career starts against Arizona.
Bumgarner is 16-3 against the money line after walking <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons. Arizona is 1-8 against the money line in home games after a loss this season. The Giants are 17-4 in Bumgarner's last 21 starts as a favorite. The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in their last 5 home games. Bet San Francisco Friday.
Jeff Alexander
Chicago Cubs -111
The Cubs are in better form than the Brewers and they have the better starter on the hill tonight. The Cubs have won back-to-back series against the Dodgers and Braves - playoff-caliber teams. The Brewers, meanwhile, have dropped 6 of their last 8 while playing San Diego, San Francisco and Cincinnati. Chicago's Garza is 2-1 with a 2.67 ERA while Milwaukee's Wolf is 2-3 with a 6.68 ERA. Garza is also 3-1 with a 3.07 ERA in 4 starts versus Milwaukee while Wolf is 6-11 with a 4.22 ERA in 23 starts versus the Cubs. The Cubs are 9-2 in Garza's last 11 starts, 6-1 in his last 7 road starts and 7-0 in his last 7 starts vs. the National League Central. The Brewers are 1-5 in Wolf's last 6 starts vs. the Cubs. Take the Cubbies.
Tony George
St Louis Cardinals -136
I cashed the Cards back to back this week at Arizona for premium plays, one of them a Top Play on Wednesday. The OFFENSE of the Cards has been nothing short of spectacular this year, ahead of last years team in runs per game right now. Oh yeah, they won a world title last year!!! They are not missing a beat without Albert! We are talking about a team here that is tied for the best record in NL , and at home in this one laying a manageable number I might add.
I do not like the Braves as an underdog, they rarely win in that spot, and facing Garcia on the road who is 12-2 at home his last 14 games against a team with a winning record bodes well for the Cards tonight. Mike Minor gets the nod for the Braves with an ERA of 5.97 on the year and 9.35 in his last 3 starts, and that is BAD NEWS against the hitting lineup of the Cards which is hot, which by the way hits southpaws at .298 as a team on the year and Minor is a lefty.
WUNDERDOG
Washington at Cincinnati
Pick: Washington -115
It is still a tough image for bettors to see the Nationals at pretty much even odds on the road vs. a competent team, but they have the best pitching in baseball right now. That high-level pitching keeps them in every game, and they certainly have been able to win their share atop the NL East. Gio Gonzalez was a great acquisition as the Nationals are 5-1 in his six starts where he has pitched to a brilliant 1.71 ERA. Great things were expected from Mike Leake, as he went 20-13 in his first two big league seasons, but he has struggled since day one and is 0-4 with a 5.97 ERA to start the season. Washington has been a momentum team now at 23-8 in their last 31 following a win, while the Reds a dreadful 5-23 in their last 28 vs. a better than .600 team. Play on Washington.
Vegas Experts
Detroit at Oakland
Play: Detroit
Tigers coming off a 10-6 win last night here in Oakland, and we'll back Detroit to win again on Friday behind Rick Porcello. He's been one of the better pitchers for the Tigers this year, coming into this game with a 4-2 team start record, including a 1.17 ERA on the road. And while Detroit has struggled a bit at home, they are very good in this road favorite role, winning 21 of the last 25 times they were a road favorite of -125 or higher. Oakland starter Milone has allowed 13 runs (12 earned) his last two outings, and faces a Tigers offense that is heating up with double-digit efforts in base hits three of their last five games overall, including 17 last night. Porcello strong here as the Tigers win their second straight!