Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, May 24

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Cleveland at Boston
The Indians look to follow up their 12-3 win yesterday and build on their 14-3 record in their last 17 games after scoring 5 runs or more in the previous game. Cleveland is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Indians favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+100)

Game 951-952: Philadelphia at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 14.160; Washington (Zimmermann) 15.280
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-165); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-165); Over

Game 953-954: Atlanta at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Medlen) 15.906; NY Mets (Hefner) 14.143
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-160); Under

Game 955-956: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Feldman) 15.959; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 15.334
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+140); Under

Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Burnett) 15.370; Milwaukee (Estrada) 13.623
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-110); Over

Game 959-960: San Diego at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stults) 16.309; Arizona (McCarthy) 15.216
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+125); Under

Game 961-962: St. Louis at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lynn) 14.947; LA Dodgers (Capuano) 15.487
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+110); Over

Game 963-964: Colorado at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chatwood) 15.970; San Francisco (Lincecum) 14.781
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+135); Over

Game 965-966: Baltimore at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 16.178; Toronto (Nolin) 15.239
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-120); Under

Game 967-968: Minnesota at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Deduno) 13.449; Detroit (Sanchez) 16.180
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-230); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-230); Under

Game 969-970: NY Yankees at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Phelps) 15.980; Tampa Bay (Hernandez) 16.872
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-110); Over

Game 971-972: Cleveland at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 16.095; Boston (Lackey) 14.976
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+100); Under

Game 973-974: Oakland at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Milone) 14.301; Houston (Bedard) 15.101
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Oakland (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+145); Over

Game 975-976: LA Angels at Kansas City (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Vargas) 15.961; Kansas City (Mendoza) 14.586
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120); Under

Game 977-978: Texas at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Grimm) 14.594; Seattle (Saunders) 15.196
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+110); Over

Game 979-980: Miami at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Koehler) 14.541; White Sox (Danks) 13.827
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-185); 8
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+165); Over

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cardinals vs. DodgersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 7½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Lance Lynn (6-1, 3.27 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Lynn is coming off a no-decision vs. the Brewers on Saturday in which he gave up four runs off eight hits over five frames of work; he'd strike out three and walk two. For the most part Lynn has been the very model of consistency this year and he'll look to bounce back with a better effort vs. a team he's enjoyed success against in the past, going 1-0 with a very respectable 3.75 ERA in two career starts at Dodger Stadium. Lynn will be opposed by Chris Capuano (1-2, 4.84 ERA) who went eight frames on Saturday vs. the Braves, allowing five hits, leaving the game with a 1-0 lead with a strained calf: "It wasn't affecting pitch execution out there," Capuano assessed afterwards. "It just feels a little tired. I've got an extra day before the next start (Friday against the Cardinals). With treatment and stuff we should be able to get that ready." The southpaw is 1-1 with a 3.57 ERA over his last three starts, allowing two runs off 10 hits with a walk over his last two. Two competent starters going head to head vs. a couple of inconsistent lineups; I feel the table is set for a low-scoring pitchers duel.

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Phillies vs. NationalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington is a huge park, great for pitchers, and a pair of righties are on the mound who don't walk anyone and are tough to hit. Philly righty Kyle Kendrick (4-2, 2.82 ERA) has walked 14 in 60+ innings and the under is 6-1 in Phillies last 7 road games. The Philly offense is awful, 25th in baseball in runs scored, 26th in on base percentage. The under is 4-1 in the Phillies last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter and they face Jordan Zimmermann (7-2, 1.62 ERA) who is having a dominant season. But this Washington offense is as bad as the Phillies, 28th in runs, batting average, OBP and slugging. The Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings, including 5-0 under the total in Washington. Play the Phillies/Nationals under the total.

Sam MartinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indiana at MiamiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pacers and Heat struggled on offense up until halftime but then the teams started to gain offensive momentum and combined to score 126 points in the second half and overtime. Miami especially struggled in the first half looking to shake off the rust from a six-day layoff, but were able to dictate a faster game pace as the game went on and we expect that same type of up-tempo style in Friday's Game Two. Pacers are 17-8 Over playing with same-season revenge while Miami is 18-9 Over as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points and 16-6 Over on their home court after failing to cover the spread. No offense rust tonight and they can cover this low total well before the final whistle.

Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chi. Cubs vs. CincinnatiFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: CincinnatiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Obviously, I'm on a real tear on the basepaths right now. Really, it's been going on all season as I'm 69-32 L101 MLB plays & 45-17 L62! But with Thursday's 3-0 SWEEP, things are really amping up as I'm 15-2 my last 17. Those records don't even include the success I've been having with my free plays. Today, I'm going to take Cincinnati as the host the Cubs.....
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Starter Scott Feldman does give the beleaguered Cubbies somewhat of a fighting chance here, but it won't be enough against the red hot Reds. Cincinnati comes into tonight having won 10 of 12. They also have the advantage of having had Thursday off while the Cubs were in Pittsburgh. Chicago got swept by the Pirates (I had the Under y'day) and has now lost four in a row. Things are once again not looking good on the Northside. A big reason why is that they are scoring less than three runs per game on the road.
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The Reds come in averaging 5.5 runs per game at home and will be starting Bronson Arroyo, a hot pitcher in his own right. Arroyo hasn't allowed any runs in either of his last two starts (14+ IP) & has a career 3.04 ERA in 26 starts vs. Chicago. Already this season, the Reds are 5-1 head to head w/ the Cubs. Why not lay the juice with the far better team at home?

Will RogersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh vs. MilwaukeeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: MilwaukeeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Pirates wound up being a pretty easy winner for me Thursday afternoon, but that was at home and against the Cubs. The win completed an 8-2 homestand for Pittsburgh, but now its back out on the road where they're not nearly as effective. First stop is Milwaukee where they'll find the division rival Brewers seeking revenge.
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Here are my keys to the game:FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1. Homefield Advantage - This makes a big difference for both clubs, neither of which has been very good away from home for the past several seasons. The Pirates have started to turn things around somewhat this year, but are only 11-9 overall. Tonight's starter AJ Burnett has never been good on the road throughout his career with a 77-109 TSR (-33.9 units). Milwaukee is 93-47 at home vs. righties the last three seasons.
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2. Payback - Pittsburgh took two of three from Milwaukee at PNC Park to start their homestand. But the one pitcher the Brewers beat was Burnett. Here at Miller Park, the Brewers are 16-5 vs. the Pirates the last three years, including 2-1 this season, which builds off what I was talking about above.
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3. X-Factor - Marco Estrada starts tonight for Milwaukee. While he hasn't had the best season so far, he did beat Pittsburgh & Burnett on May 13th, throwing seven innings of three-hit ball. He's 4-0 in seven career starts (6-1 TSR, 0.824 WHIP) vs. the Pirates.

Allen Eastman

Pittsburgh over Milwaukee

I think that Pittsburgh will be a solid favorite on the road in this game. They should be around -130 to -145. But I think Pittsburgh is worth the price. Milwaukee is just 4-17 in its last 21 games, and they are in a tailspin. This team lost three of four at Pittsburgh in mid-May, and the Pirates should get the job done this weekend for a series win. A.J. Burnett is on the mound for the Pirates in this one. The Pitt ace has just a 2.57 ERA on the year and has seven of eight quality starts. He has revenge for a loss to the Brewers on May 13, and I think he will get it. The Brewers are going with Marco Estrada in this one. He has a 5.44 ERA this year and has given up 18 runs in his last 20 innings. The Pirates lost to him the last time out, but they will be better since they just faced him two weeks ago. These two teams are on different paths. Take the road favorite in this game. They are worth the price!!.

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Los Angeles AngelsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When the Angles send Jason Vargas to the bump in Kansas City Friday evening in Game Two of this four-game series at Kauffman Stadium they will do so knowing he is 5-1 in his career teams starts against the Royals, with wins in each of his last five starts. In addition, Vargas has cashed in each of his last five-team starts during the month of May. Look for more of the same this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Angels.

Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland Indians +106FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Justin Masterson has been nothing short of spectacular for the Indians this season. He has posted a 7-2 record in 10 starts with a 2.83 ERA and 1.129 WHIP. In his last three starts he has improved on those numbers with a 1.17 ERA and 0.783 WHIP to go along with his 3-0 record. The Indian’s bullpen has been solid this season and with Masterson averaging 7.7 innings per game over his last three starts they should be able to easily pick up the save.
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The Red Sox have not been hitting well posting a .243 batting average over their last 7 games. The bullpen has been blowing saves 50% of the time at home this season so even with Lackey on the mound Boston will be in trouble. Especially when you consider the fact that the Indians are averaging 6.4 runs per game with a .270 batting average over their last 7 games. With the way Cleveland is hitting and having Masterson on the mound it seems like the wrong team is favored in this game.

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh Penguins -209FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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While we realize its never a great idea to lay over two to one, We will make an exception here in this one for our Free play. The Penguins are in a solid situation here tonight illustrated by the grid below, which shows home teams in Game 5 that are up 3-1 and have won games one and two at home, lost game 3 on the road and won game 4 on the road are 11-2 straight up all time in this round, good for 84%. The Penguins are 6-1 at home vs Ottawa and 16-3 of late vs winning teams, they are 20-8 after scoring 4 or more goals and 20-6 after a win by 2 or more goals. Ottawa is 3-8 with home loss revenge and 4-9 on the road when the total is 5.5. Look for Pittsburgh to send the Senators packing.

Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Louis Cardinals -117FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The St. Louis Cardinals have a massive edge on the mound with Lance Lynn over Chris Capuano tonight. I'll gladly side with the small road favorite in this one. The Cardinals (30-16) are clearly the better team over the Dodgers (19-26).
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Lynn is 6-1 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.164 WHIP through nine starts this season. Capuano is 1-2 with a 5.49 ERA and 1.424 WHIP through four starts this season, including 1-2 with an 8.03 ERA and 1.865 WHIP in his last three home starts.
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St. Louis is 9-1 (+8.5 Units) against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season. The Cardinals are 80-38 (+27.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. Lynn is 22-6 (+13.0 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Cardinals Friday.

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cardinals vs. DodgersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 7½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Lance Lynn (6-1, 3.27 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Lynn is coming off a no-decision vs. the Brewers on Saturday in which he gave up four runs off eight hits over five frames of work; he'd strike out three and walk two. For the most part Lynn has been the very model of consistency this year and he'll look to bounce back with a better effort vs. a team he's enjoyed success against in the past, going 1-0 with a very respectable 3.75 ERA in two career starts at Dodger Stadium. Lynn will be opposed by Chris Capuano (1-2, 4.84 ERA) who went eight frames on Saturday vs. the Braves, allowing five hits, leaving the game with a 1-0 lead with a strained calf: "It wasn't affecting pitch execution out there," Capuano assessed afterwards. "It just feels a little tired. I've got an extra day before the next start (Friday against the Cardinals). With treatment and stuff we should be able to get that ready." The southpaw is 1-1 with a 3.57 ERA over his last three starts, allowing two runs off 10 hits with a walk over his last two. Two competent starters going head to head vs. a couple of inconsistent lineups; I feel the table is set for a low-scoring pitchers duel.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas Rangers at Seattle MarinersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Seattle MarinersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Joe Saunders is never going to be confused with Felix Hernandez as the ace of the Seattle staff. The lefty did manage to make an All-Star team while with the Angels, but it truth Saunders has never been much more than a mid-rotation or lower innings eater. That said, for whatever reason, this guy is the absolute nuts at Safeco Field.
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Saunders now has 13 career starts at this site. He's 9-0 with a 1.72 ERA. The WHIP is a cool 1.08. Contrast those numbers with the ones Saunders has registered everywhere else, and you have arrived at a genuine moment of utter bafflement. Okay, the park is favorable to lefties who give up fly balls. But to this extent? Nope. It's just one of those really weird stat lines that will appear every now and then. Rather than try and figure out what the hell is going on, my sentiments are to just play along until it runs its course.
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The bad news is that the Rangers already own one win this season dueling Saunders at Safeco. That had nothing to do with the veteran southpaw, as he surrendered just one one unearned run in his seven frames that night. Texas got to the Seattle bullpen and eventually won a 3-1 decision. But they sure didn't have much success against Saunders.
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Justin Grimm has been adequate for the Rangers, and obviously this Texas team is better at everything than the Mariners. If you ignore the Saunders Safeco stats, you're looking at what appears to be a bargain price on the Rangers. But when you include those Saunders numbers, taking a small plus price tag with the Mariners doesn't seem like such a bad idea. I'll go along for the ride by opting for home dog Seattle tonight.

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Phillies at NationalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington is a huge park, great for pitchers, and a pair of righties are on the mound who don't walk anyone and are tough to hit. Philly righty Kyle Kendrick (4-2, 2.82 ERA) has walked 14 in 60+ innings and the under is 6-1 in Phillies last 7 road games. The Philly offense is awful, 25th in baseball in runs scored, 26th in on base percentage. The under is 4-1 in the Phillies last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter and they face Jordan Zimmermann (7-2, 1.62 ERA) who is having a dominant season. But this Washington offense is as bad as the Phillies, 28th in runs, batting average, OBP and slugging. The Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings, including 5-0 under the total in Washington. Play the Phillies/Nationals under the total.