SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Orlando (10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS) at Boston (11-5 SU and ATS)
The second-seeded Magic, who trailed the best-of-7 Eastern Conference finals 3-0, now have a chance to knot it up when they face the Celtics in Game 6 at TD Garden.
Orlando ran away from Boston in Game 5, outscoring the Celts 29-17 in the fourth quarter en route to a 113-92 blowout as a four-point home favorite. Jameer Nelson had 24 points, and Dwight Howard added 21 points, 10 rebounds and five blocks for the Magic. Orlando shot a solid 52.2 percent from the floor (36 of 69), including an eye-catching 52 percent from 3-point range (13 of 25), and Stan Van Gundy’s troops posted a hefty 43-26 edge on the glass.
Rasheed Wallace (21 points) was the only player to break 20 points for Boston, which shot 43.1 percent overall (31 of 72) and 43.8 percent from long distance (7 of 16). The Celtics had just four offensive rebounds, while allowing 10 for Orlando, and they got banged up – Glen Davis and Marquis Daniels both suffered concussions, putting their status in question, and Wallace tweaked his back.
Orlando is 5-4 SU and Boston 5-4 ATS in the nine meetings this year between these two, with the Magic taking Games 4 and 5 SU and ATS after a 5-1 ATS run (4-2 SU) by Boston. Despite Orlando holding court at home in Game 5, the road team and the visitor are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 clashes in this rivalry, and the Magic are 4-1 ATS on their last five visits to the Garden.
The SU winner has cashed in 21 of the last 23 meetings between these teams, including 15 of the last 16 and the last six in a row. Additionally, the SU winner has cashed in each of Boston’s last 26 games overall, including all 16 playoff contests, and the SU winner is 20-1 ATS in the Magic’s last 21 contests.
Orlando is 30-17 (27-19-1 ATS) on the highway this season and has won 13 of its last 16 away from home (11-4-1 ATS), including Monday’s 96-92 overtime win as a seven-point pup in Game 4 in Beantown. The Magic are 5-1 SU and ATS in playoff roadies this year. Boston is 30-19 SU this season at the Garden but just 18-30-1 ATS. In the playoffs, the Celtics are 6-2 SU and ATS at home.
The Magic are on several positive pointspread sprees, including 22-8-1 overall, 7-1 in roadies, 7-1 after a spread-cover, 21-7-1 after a SU win, 20-7-1 after a day off and 18-7 against Atlantic Division foes.
Despite dropping their last two SU and ATS, the Celtics remain on pointspread upswings of 6-2 overall, 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS loss, 6-2 at home, 6-2 after a day off, 5-2 laying points and 7-3 against the Southeast Division.
Orlando sports a bundle of “under” streaks, including 8-4-1 overall (5-2 last seven), 16-5 on Friday, 37-14-1 after a day off, 9-4 as a pup (all on the road) and 42-20 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Likewise, Boston is on “under” rolls of 10-4 in conference finals contests and 4-1 after a non-cover, but the over is 35-16 in the Celts’ last 51 starts after a SU loss.
The last two games of this series cleared the posted price, with Game 5 sailing over the 186½-point total. Still, the total has stayed low in 10 of the last 13 overall between these two teams (6-3 this season) and five of the last six meetings in Boston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (26-21) at Colorado (25-22)
The Dodgers send right-hander Carlos Monasterios (1-0, 1.90 ERA) to the mound at Coors Field in Denver opposite Rockies’ southpaw Jeff Francis (1-0, 0.68).
Los Angeles just dropped two of three in Chicago, getting shut out twice, including Thursday’s 1-0 loss. The Dodgers are still on several positive streaks, including 18-7 overall, 57-27 against N.L. West rivals, 7-2 on the road, 4-0 on Friday and 5-2 in series openers.
Colorado made it five straight victories – its longest win streak of the season – with Thursday’s 8-2 victory over the Diamondbacks. The Rockies are on positive runs of 56-25 at home, 37-15 as a home favorite, 39-19 at home against right-handers, 5-1 as a favorite and 46-17 at home against teams with losing road records.
The Dodgers took two of three from the Rockies in Los Angeles earlier this month and have won 19 of the last 26 meetings, including five of the last six in Colorado.
Monasterios has just one career start, coming back on May 1 at home against the Pirates, when he allowed one run on three hits in four innings of a 5-1 victory. He’s appeared in 12 games this season with his last coming on May 19 at home when he pitched three innings of relief in a 10-5 loss to the Padres, allowing just one hit and no runs.
Francis is making just his third start of the season after missing the entire 2009 season. He opened at home by beating the Nationals 2-1, allowing one run on seven hits in seven innings, then followed up with Saturday’s 3-0 victory in Kansas City, blanking the Royals on five hits over 6 1/3 innings. Francis is 5-3 in 14 career starts against the Dodgers with a 2.73 ERA. The Rockies are 21-10 in his last 31 at home against a team with a winning record, but just 1-8 in his last nine series-opening starts.
Los Angeles has stayed below the posted total in six of seven on the road, five of six against N.L. West teams, four of five on Friday and five of seven as an underdog. Colorado has topped the total in six of eight series openers, and six of nine when Francis has started a series opener, but it is on “under” surges of 6-0-1 in Francis’ last seven starts overall, 5-1-1 when he pitches at home and 6-1 when he’s a favorite.
With Francis on the hill, this series has stayed “under” in six of his last eight starts, nine of the last 12 meetings overall and four of the last five in the Mile High City.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOS ANGELES and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Texas (26-21) at Minnesota (27-20)
The Rangers, losers of three of their last four but still sitting atop the A.L. West standings, send Colby Lewis (4-2, 3.45 ERA) to the mound at Target Field to face Kevin Slowey (5-3, 4.53) and the Twins in the opener of a three-game series.
Texas split a two-game set at Kansas City this week, winning 8-7 on Tuesday before dropping a 5-2 contest on Wednesday. The Rangers’ 1-3 slump follows a five-game winning streak. They are just 1-6 in their last seven road games, 0-8 on the road against teams with winning records and 1-4 on the road against right-handers, but they have won 21 of 29 Friday contests and five of six against A.L. Central squads.
Minnesota salvaged the final game of a three-game home set against the Yankees on Thursday, winning 8-2. The Twins are on streaks of 25-11 at home, 39-15 on Friday, 4-1 against A.L. West teams and 38-18 as favorites, but they are just 3-6 in their last nine overall and 1-4 in their last vie versus teams.
The Twins have taken 10 of the last 14 at home against Texas and won six of nine overall battles last season.
The Rangers snapped a three-game losing streak with Lewis on the hill a week ago when he limited the White Sox to one run on five hits over six innings of a 2-1 victory. On the road this season, Lewis is 1-2 with a 3.77 ERA, allowing 13 runs in 31 innings of work. Lewis has just one career start against the Twins, coming back in 2003 when he allowed three runs on three hits in 4 2/3 innings of a 5-4 loss. Texas is just 5-11 in Lewis’ last 16 roadies, but 6-2 in his last eight as a ‘dog and 4-0 in his last four Friday starts.
Slowey has led the Twins to four wins in his last five outings, including Saturday when he gave up two runs on six hits in 5 2/3 innings against the Brewers, getting a no-decision in Minnesota’s 8-7 home win. At Target Field, he is 2-2 with a 4.34 ERA, giving up 14 runs in 29 innings. His lone outing against the Rangers came in 2007 when he gave up just one run on four hits in six innings of a 5-4 victory, striking out seven. Minnesota is 19-7 in Slowey’s last 26 home starts, 14-4 in his last 18 when he gets five days off, 9-1 in his last 10 on Friday and 8-2 in his last 10 series openers.
Texas is on a plethora of “under” runs, including 4-1 overall, 5-2 as an underdog, 6-1 in Lewis’ last seven as a road ‘dog, 13-3 when he starts on the road, 4-1 in his last five overall and 5-2 when he throws the series opener. Minnesota has topped the total in 37 of 55 Friday games and six of Slowey’s last seven Friday outings, but the team in on “under” stretches of 10-4 as a favorite, 13-7-1 overall and 7-3 at home.
In this rivalry, the under is 3-1-1 in the last five clashes and 4-0 in the last four in Minnesota.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
DUNKEL INDEX
Orlando at Boston
The Celtics look to rebound from their 113-92 loss in Game 5 and build on 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games following a SU loss by more than 10 points. Boston is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Celtics favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-3)
Game 521-522: Orlando at Boston (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 126.573; Boston 135.810
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 9; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 3; 189
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-3); Over
MLB
Texas at Minnesota
The Twins look to build on their 10-1 record in Kevin Slowey's last 11 starts as a home favorite between -110 and -150. Minnesota is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Twins favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-130)
Game 951-952: St. Louis at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.861; Cubs (Wells) 16.703
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+115); N/A
Game 953-954: Houston at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 15.274; Cincinnati (LeCure) 14.754
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+110); Under
Game 955-956: Philadelphia at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.060; Florida (Volstad) 13.579
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+110); Under
Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at Atlanta (7:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Duke) 14.838; Atlanta (Lowe) 15.533
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-180); Over
Game 959-960: NY Mets at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Santana) 15.324; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.084
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+100); Under
Game 961-962: LA Dodgers at Colorado (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Monasterios) 15.843; Colorado (Francis) 17.582
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-155); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-155); Under
Game 963-964: Washington at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 14.271; San Diego (Richard) 15.857
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Diego (-155); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-155); Under
Game 965-966: Arizona at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Jackson) 14.175; San Francisco (Cain) 13.649
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+125); Under
Game 967-968: Baltimore at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Millwood) 14.744; Toronto (Marcum) 14.527
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+160); Over
Game 969-970: Cleveland at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Carmona) 14.344; NY Yankees (Hughes) 15.483
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-250); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-250); Under
Game 971-972: Oakland at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Sheets) 15.224; Detroit (Willis) 16.519
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-120); Under
Game 973-974: Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Garcia) 14.688; Tampa Bay (Price) 16.912
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-210); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-210); Over
Game 975-976: Kansas City at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Davies) 15.924; Boston (Wakefield) 18.362
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-190); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-190); Under
Game 977-978: Texas at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 15.001; Minnesota (Slowey) 16.510
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-130); Over
Game 979-980: Seattle at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Lee) 15.167; LA Angels (Kazmir) 16.646
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Seattle (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+100); Under
WNBA
New York at San Antonio
The Liberty look to build on their 5-2 ATS record in their last 7 meetings in San Antonio. New York is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Silver Stars favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: New York (+6 1/2)
Game 651-652: New York at San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 110.701; San Antonio 111.766
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 1; 152
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6 1/2; 158 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (+6 1/2); Under
Game 653-654: Atlanta at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 111.935; Phoenix 113.227
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1 1/2; 179
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 4 1/2; 184 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+4 1/2); Under
Game 655-656: Washington at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 111.365; Los Angeles 115.235
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 4; 154
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 5 1/2; 149 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+5 1/2); Over
Marc Lawrence
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona's Edwin Jackson opposes Matt Cain in San Francisco this evening in great KW form with six walks and 29 strikeouts in his last three starts. On the flip side, Cain has issued 12 walks against 12 strikeouts in his last three games, all of which were losing efforts. Look for Cain to fall to 2-6 in his last eight team starts in this series here tonight.
Craig Trapp
Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres
The two biggest surprises in the National League square off tonight. But only SD is coming off a positive as they took 2 of 3 against STL in the last series. WASH has lost 9 of last 13 and are really struggling. Clayton Richard goes for Padres as he tries for a fifth consecutive victory. The left-hander, who's 4-0 with a 1.97 ERA in his last five starts, allowed one run in seven innings for the second straight appearance in a 2-1 win at Seattle on Saturday. He will be opposed by Lannan who has been good in his last three but had not got a decision in any three starts. Lannan is 0-2 with a 3.12 ERA in four starts against the Padres. As all SD games this will be low scoring but SD is on a tear and will pull out another close one.
Rob Vinciletti
New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers fit a 71% system that pertains to their home win vs Houston and the Mets Home dog win over the Phillies. The Brewers are on eof the worst home teams in the league. Tonight, however they take on a Mets team that is just 6-14 on the road. New York may come up flat here tonight off their incredible 3 straight shutouts over the Phillies. The first time in history that a league champion was shut out in 3 straight games, and the first time this has happened to the Phillies since 1979. Santana makes the start for the Mets. However he has struggled some on the road this year with a 4.38 era losing 3 of 4 starts. He has allowed 8 runs in 12 innings vs the Brewers in Milwaukee. The Brewers counter with Y.Gallardo tonight. Gallardo has allowed just 1 run in 13 innings vs the Mets. Look for the Brewers to get game 1 tonight.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Nationals @ Padres
PICK: Over 6.5
Petco Park is an incredibly low-scoring stadium, averaging just 6.5 runs per game. The low-scoring reputation is justified but the Padres also have a very strong pitching staff. Clayton Richard has been a big part of that success with a 2.73 season ERA. Richard has enjoyed great success since moving to the National League but a close look at his results reveals several favorable match-ups. His last start came in Seattle and he has already faced San Francisco in three starts this season to account for nearly half of his innings coming against weak hitting teams. Those four games qualify as four of his best five starts on the year, and his numbers are much more average against quality hitting teams.
Washington is a very good hitting team against left-handed pitching, averaging .283 for the season including .325 in the last ten games. The Nationals have averaged five runs per game in the last week and with a season average of .262 Washington has been one of the better hitting teams in the National League. Washington does hit a lot of home runs but the Nationals lead baseball in triples and also walk at an above average frequency. Washington knocked Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum around on Wednesday and they will not be intimidated by Richard. The ?under? went 5-1 in this series last season but no total was lower than ?8? between these teams last season so those trends are quite meaningless at this adjusted total. The ?under? has had success in San Diego home games but totals are just 3-3 when below ?7? as Petco Park and most totals that low involved an established elite starting pitcher, which this game clearly lacks.
John Lannan was a reliable pitcher for the Nationals through losing campaigns in 2008 and 2009 but this season when Washington has been competitive, Lannan has struggled. Lannan has a 5.55 ERA and he has walked 26 batters while just striking out 17. In road games Lannan?s ERA is 6.08 and he has a season WHIP of 1.73. Opposing batters are hitting .284 against Lannan and he was tagged for five runs in five innings the last time he faced the Padres. Lannan has barely averaged five innings per start this season, leaving a lot of outs to fill for a vulnerable Nationals bullpen that has a 4.91 ERA in road games. With this low total it will not take much to send this game ?over? and both pitchers are likely to allow scoring opportunities even in the favorable San Diego pitching conditions.
Black Widow
1* on Minnesota Twins -128
We're getting a good price with the Twins at home Friday as a slim home favorite over the Texas Rangers. In his last road start, Rangers' starter Colby Lewis allowed 5 earned runs on 3 hits, 4 walks and 1 home run in 5.2 innings of a 2-5 loss to the Blue Jays. Lewis has started to come back to reality of late after overachieving to start the season. Kevin Slowey doesn't have overpowering stuff for the Twins, but he just continues getting the job done witha 5-3 record and 4.53 ERA this season. The Twins are 10-1 in Slowey's last 11 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Slowey has faced the Rangers once in his career, allowing 1 earned run and 4 hits in 6 innings while striking out 7 of a 5-4 Twins' victory. Slowey's biggest strength is his ability to find the strike zone and not give away free passes. He is certainly finding the strike zone of late, allowing just 1 walk total in his last 2 starts. Slowey is 13-1 (+11.8 Units) against the money line in home games after walking <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings since 1997, and his teams are winning these spots by 3.8 runs/game. Twins' players love playing defense behind Slowey because he keeps the game moving along at a nice pace. Minnesota is 18-5 (+13.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better over the last 3 seasons. The Rangers are 0-8 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record and 1-7 in Lewis' last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. It's safe to say this is not a good spot for the Rangers.
Jim Feist
Royals vs. Red Sox
Play: Under 9½
Kansas City has a weak offense, ranked 9th in the AL in runs scored. They swing at a lot of pitches outside the strike zone, which is bad against Boston starter Tim Wakfield and his floating knuckeball. Wakefield should not have come out of the rotation, as he is in one of those grooves, with a 2.08 ERA his last 21 innings, just 4 walks. Boston has a fine defense and deep bullpen. KC starter Kyle Davies has been decent, with a 2.65 ERA his last three starts, just 2 walks in those 17 innings. That's key against a Boston lineup that would prefer to draw walks, but Davies isn't allowing any. Look for a pitcher's duel, play the Royals/Red Sox Under the total.
Brad Diamond Sports
Play St. Louis over Chicago
The Cubs had a rough time in San Diego, but should respond against the inconsistent and banged up Chicago lineup. With RHP Carpenter coming off 4 days of rest the Cardinals have been super at 14-2. Further, St. Louis commands a 7-1 record against losing teams, followed by a nice 18-5record when Carpenter starts on Friday. Although the Cubs are 21-10 at Wrigley versus St. Louis, Carpenter’s starts here have brought a 6-1 mark. I’ll back St. Louie.
EZWINNERS
San Diego Padres -149
The Padres starting pitcher Clayton Richard has had a fantastic season so far for San Diego. Richard has not allowed more then three earned runs in any of his nine starts this season and sports a 4-2 record with a 2.73 ERA. Over his last three starts, Richard has been even better posting a 3-0 record with an ERA of only 1.71. The young lefty has a better than 2-1 strikeout to walk ratio and has allowed less hits than innings pitched. Washington's starting pitcher John Lannan has been a disappointment so far this season. Lannan looked like a star in the making last season, but he has struggled with the Nationals this year with a 1-2 record and an ERA of 5.55 in nine starts. The Nationals are only 6-21 in their last twenty seven games in San Diego and they are 9-23 in Lannan's last thirty two road starts. Play on San Diego.
Cajun Sports
Seattle Mariners -115
The LA Angels play host to the Seattle Mariners on Friday night with the first pitch set for 10:05PM EST. The Angels will send Scott Kazmir to the bump with his 2-1 record and 5.06 ERA when he starts at home. Kazmir has averaged 5.3 innings per start at home this season allowing nine earned runs with seven walks and twelve strikeouts. The Mariners will counter with Cliff Lee who is 1-1 on the road this season with an ERA of 1.76. He has averaged 7.7 innings per start on the highway giving up three runs with one base on balls and twelve K’s. Lee is 13-4 in road games versus an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse and 11-2 in road games versus an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Lee has also been solid in road games versus AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs per game posting a 12-1 record the last three years. Finally, a check of the database reveals a powerful league-wide system that is active for tonight’s contest. It tells us to Play ON any MLB AL team who averages 4.2 or fewer runs per game facing a team that has a bullpen ERA of 5.00 or worse starting a pitcher who was touched for seven or more runs in his last outing. The record for this system is 30-14 for 68 percent winners and more than twenty-two units of profit. Lee qualifies in this system after giving up eight runs seven of which were earned against San Diego in his last outing, even with that poor performance he managed to get the decision in a 15 to 8 victory. We look for Lee to respond with a solid outing against the Angels here and lead his team to a win on Friday night.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Seattle Mariners 3 Los Angeles Angels 1
Gill Alexander
CHC (+125) vs STL
Rivalry game in the Midwest. Carpenter has been great over the course of his career v ChC. He has a career 2.81ERA v ChC in 17 starts, including a 1.42ERA in his last 3 v the Cubbies. However, he's coming off a 6IP, 4ER, 8H appearance v LAA, not the dominant outing we've come to expect from the St. Louis ace. He has a 61-18 SO-BB ratio this season. Wells has 3 consecutive quality starts and a 45-11 SO-BB ratio on the season. Sabermetric analysis tells us much more. Wells has a 3.30 FIP mark while Carpenter's is 4.01. Remember, it's easy to think of FIP on the roughly the same scale that you think of for ERA. Plus, Wells' .326 BABIP and Carpenter's .277 BABIP suggests the gap might be wider. On a very basic level but as significant, Wrigley has been tough on the Cardinals, in general, as the Red Birds haven't won a series in the Friendly Confines since April of 2007. Nice value on the Cubs today w a jacked up crowd.
JR O'Donnell
DET / OAK Over 9
Both teams are scoring right now and the Oakland A's will get to the Tiger's hurler "D Train". D Willis is being bombed latley with a 7+ ERA this month. The Tigers need to get back the "Hot Hitting" M. Cabrera who missed the Seattle series. From our reports most likely to return to the lineup, and in JR's opinion, is the motor that makes the Detroit Tigers run. A's starter Ben Sheets is a 10 million dollar retread is not the answer. Taking a look at the Oakland A's who got to the Orioles bullpen last night and put up a 7 spot in the win. The Tigers are the more focused team here as they will give the tired starting rotation support as evidence by a 10-3 home record. The Vegas lines makers have this baby at 9 over -125 for a reason and we will call for a ton of runs tonight in Michigan.
Bobby Maxwell
N.Y. Mets (even) at MILWAUKEE
I'm 102-81-3 with my FREE selections with a winner coming tonight on the Mets as they look to stay red-hot in the opening game of a three-game set in Milwaukee.
There’s just no way I can go against the red-hot Mets right now as they just crushed the Phillies, winning three straight and outscoring them 18-0 in three games in New York. Since taking two of three last weekend from the Yankees, this team has turned itself around.
Three straight brilliant pitching performances leads them to tonight and lefty Johan Santana (4-2, 3.41 ERA) on the hill in Milwaukee opposite the Brewers Yovani Gallardo (4-2, 3.20).
Santana is 1-0 in his last three outings with a 1.25 ERA, allowing a grand total of three runs over 21.2 innings of work. The Mets won 6-4 on Sunday against the Yankees when Santana gave up just one run on six hits over 7.2 innings. He hasn’t seen the Brewers this season, but split his two starts against them last year, blanking them for seven innings of a 1-0 win at home and then just dumping for six runs (five earned) on nine hits in June last year.
Gallardo has a 3.50 ERA in his last three outings and he’s just 1-2 at home with a 4.12 ERA. He gave up four runs on six hits in six innings of a 7-8 loss in Minnesota on Saturday. The Brewers have lost his last three starts and they are on further slides of 4-12 overall, 2-5 as home favorites, 6-16 at home, 1-6 on Friday and 0-6 against N.L. East.
The Mets are 17-8 when Santana opens a series and they are 14-5 against N.L. Central teams, but they are just 18-44 on the road and 17-42 as a road underdog.
New York has won six of eight in Milwaukee and the smart money is coming in on them tonight as they continue to dominate their opponents. The Mets pitching staff is rolling and it’ll keep rolling tonight with Santana. Play the Mets to get the Brewers in this one.
3♦ N.Y. METS
Brett Atkins
I've hit four of my last five free plays and tonight I'm scoring again with a play on the Mets as they go to Milaukee for a matchup with the Brewers.
New York has found some pitching, at least for the short-time. They have executed three straight shutouts, all at home against the Phillies and they have gotten the offense on track as well.
The Mets outscored the Phillies 18-0 in three games, giving them five straight wins after taking two of three from the Yankees over the last weekend.
Confidence is a wonderful thing when it comes around, and the entire Mets staff full of it now, with Johan Santana (4-2, 3.41 ERA) on the mound today looking to continue their hot streak. Santana has a 1.25 ERA in his last three outings and has allowed three runs in 21.2 innings.
Milwaukee has lost each of Yovani Gallardo’s last three starts and they are on slides of 4-12 overall, 2-5 as home favorites and 6-16 at home overall. New York is 17-8 when Santana opens a series.
Play the Mets to keep rolling in this one.
5♦ N.Y. METS