MTi Sports
Cleveland Indians at New York Yankees
Prediction: New York Yankees
The Indians are 0-12 as a dog in the first game of the series when they are off a loss losing each if the last nine by multiple runs. The Yankees are 15-0 with no rest as a favorite of more than 160 in a series opener winning each of the last ten by multiple runs. Consider the Yankees on the run line.
Carlo Campanella
Magic vs. Celtics
Play: Over 188
Orlando finally woke up on offense in Game #5 at home, making 52.2% of their shots while winning 113-92, but are still trailing this Playoff series 3-2. Game #6 moves back to Boston, where the Celtics are 11-3 (Over/Under) after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game this season! Now that this series can be tied up tonight, expecting tonight's game to be played with more emotion them from BOTH TEAMS compared to when Orlando slept through it's first 3 losses in low scoring affairs.
Rocketman
Arizona @ San Francisco
Play: San Francisco -135
San Francisco is 32-11 last 3 years as a home favorite of -125 to -150. Arizona has lost 4 games in a row heading into tonight's action. This Arizona bullpen has been terrible this year with a 7.42 ERA overall and an 8.39 ERA on the road this season. San Francisco is 15-9 at home this season. San Francisco bullpen has a 3.60 ERA overall this year and a 1.82 ERA at home this season. Edwin Jackson is 3-5 with a 6.28 ERA overall this year and 1-2 with a 7.97 ERA on the road this season. Matt Cain has a 2.88 ERA overall this year and a 3.05 ERA his last 3 starts. We'll recommend a small play on San Francisco tonight!
Bryan Leonard
Arizona / San Francisco Under
We're looking for a low scoring affair here as both starting pitchers should hold significant advantages. Edwin Jackson has a 21 to 2 strikeout to walk ratio in his last two starts as he is finally pitching up to his potential with the Diamondbacks. He has faced San Francisco once in his career throwing six shutout innings against this foe. San Francisco has scored just 13 total runs in their last six ball games.
Matt Cain owns a 2.51 ERA in his last seven starts. He has allowed two earned runs or less in 6 of those 7 outings. Looking back to when Cain faces a team that hits more ground balls than fly balls his starts have gone under 55 of 82 occurrences. Arizona has scored just 11 runs in their last four games and that offensive production isn't likely to get any better tonight.
Scott Spreitzer
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
Play: St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis may be ready to make a bit of a run after finally busting out last night in an 8-3 win over San Diego. Albert Pujols ripped Padre pitching after struggling for most of May. Whether Pujols is in the lineup or not today, I expect a big-time performance at the plate, and more importantly, on the mound. Chris Carpenter loves pitching against the Cubs, whether home or away. His numbers are strong again this season, sporting a 5-1 record with a 3.09 ERA & 1.13 WHIP. More importantly, the Cards are 8-2 in his 10 outings. Randy Wells has pitched well, but he's been nothing special in his couple of outings against the Redbirds. Finally, the Cards are 14-2 in Carpenter's last 16 starts on four days rest, and they're 42-13 when he toes the rubber against teams with a losing record. Look for the Cardinals to cash the ticket on Friday afternoon.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds will start rookie right-hander Sam Lecure. He is filling in for injured Homer Bailey. Lecure has been the Reds best pitcher at the AAA level with a 5-2 record and a 2.55 ERA. Cincinnati has won all three meetings this season in Houston. Now in Cincinnati the Reds are in a more famimliar place where they are 17-10 on the season. Houston is just 7-13 on the road this season and just 12-25 against right-handed starters this season. Go with the Reds here tonight.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies +116
After getting swept by the Mets while not managing a single run, expect the Phillies to be extremely motivated and focused heading into tonight's game. Winning in Florida hasn't been much of a problem for Philly as it is 9-2 in its last 11 road games with the Marlins. It's also hard to refuse Philly at this price when you consider it is a perfect 5-0 in its last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 8-3 in its last 11 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Kendrick has been up and down for the Phillies, but it is worth noting that they are 10-2 in his last 12 starts when he has 5 days of rest and 15-5 in his last 20 series opening starts. Meanwhile, the Marlins are 3-10 in Volstads last 13 starts, 2-8 in his last 10 series opening starts and 2-9 in his last 11 starts with 5 days of rest. We'll take the Phillies at a nice price.
Matt Fargo
Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Washington Nationals
We are only just over a quarter of the way into the season but the fact that Washington is still sitting at .500 is very impressive. The Nationals did not win their 24th game until July 4th of last season which just shows the incredible turnaround that is taking place. As mentioned, it is early but Washington is just three games back in the Wild Card standings and while it means little at this point, it does mean we are getting a solid price with a solid team. The Padres may be an even bigger surprise as they are leading the National League West by two games over the Dodgers. They had their four-game winning streak snapped last night by the Cardinals as the offense was once again shutdown. San Diego fifth worst in baseball in average, ninth worst in on-base percentage, fourth worst in slugging percentage and ninth lowest in runs scored. San Diego is not going to win many games with that anemic offense and so far it has been the pitching that has carried it. For how long though? Clayton Richard is a name few know about but he is having a very solid season since coming over in the Jake Peavy deal. Richard has a 2.73 ERA on the season as he has allowed three runs or fewer in all nine of his starts. That is exceptional but what has been unexceptional is his 1.36 WHIP. He has been allowing a lot of baserunners but he has been fortunate to not get into more trouble. He goes up against John Lannan who has been up and down so far this year. Only three of his nine starts have been quality outings but looking at the opposition tells the story. Two-thirds of his starts have come against teams ranked in the top half of baseball in average so he has been victimized by bad scheduling. He was great in his first two full seasons in 2008 and 2009 and he is much better than what his numbers may show. Those numbers are getting better and he now faces a poor offense and one that he has posted a 3.12 ERA in four career starts against. 3* Washington Nationals
Ben Burns
Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
The Braves are currently playing much better baseball than the Pirates. They've won two in a row and seven of their last nine. On the other hand, Pittsburgh has lost two straight and six of their last eight. The Braves should enjoy an advantage this evening.
Atlanta is the better hitting ballclub. The Braves are averaging 4.7 runs per game, including 5.3 here at home. Conversely, the Pirates are averaging 3.3 runs per game, 3.4 on the road. They're also averaging a mere 3.1 runs per game vs. right-handed starters, hitting only .231.
The Pirates' relievers have a 4.70 ERA on the season. The Braves' relievers have a 3.48 ERA on the season. That includes a 2.48 ERA (1.054 WHIP) here at home.
Duke comes off back to back very strong starts and has admittedly been pitching well lately. He's still got a 5.87 ERA on the road though. More importantly, the Pirates are a dismal 3-15 his last 18 road starts.
Lowe's stats for the season aren't that great. He's been solid lately though, going 2-1 with a 3.50 ERA his last three starts. He should be happy to see Pittsburgh. He's made eight starts against the Pirates and has gone a perfect 8-0 with a stellar 2.96 ERA. His teams have won those games by a combined score of 62-28. Consider laying the wood.
DAVID MALINSKY
Cleveland Indians @ New York Yankees
PICK: Cleveland Indians
The bottom line is a simple one here – the Yankees are not good enough to be in this price range. There is nothing all that imposing about a lineup that has been held to three runs or less in half of their last 18 games, with a 7-11 record in that span, and while Phil Hughes is off to an excellent start, his ERA has nearly doubled over his last two outings (from 1.38 to 2.72), allowing nine runs on 14 hits over just 10.2 innings vs. the Red Sox and Mets, sporting PPI counts of 20.8 and 20.6 in the process. This is not the dominating package that the price point would indicate.
Meanwhile Fausto Carmona is finding his game again. He may not be able to reach the heights of that 19-8/3.06 campaign of 2007, but his 4-2/3.45 is real. Only once through nine starts has he allowed more than three earned runs, and after struggling with control in his first two outings he has now had seven straight games of two W’s or less. He has worked to a razor-sharp 3-0/2.16 on the road, and having had Thursday off the entire bullpen cast comes in rested and ready. And while we have played often against The Tribe with southpaws on the mound, there is a dramatic shift in punch when facing right-handers, where they have held their own. That brings us more than enough ammunition for a game in which only a small investment can bring a significant return.
Tom Freese
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
Seattle starter Cliff Lee has a 19-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. The Mariners are 13-6 their last 19 games as road favorites. Seattle is of a two game sweep of Detroit at home. The Angels starter Scott Kazmir 17 runs in his last 23.1 innings of work. Los Angeles is 1-4 their last 5 starts made by Kazmir. The Halos are 1-4 with Kazmir after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game. PLAY ON SEATTLE -
Jack Jones
Los Angeles Angels +100
Scott Kazmir has seen his fair share of success against the Seattle Mariners throughout his career. Kazmir is 3-2 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in 8 career starts vs. Seattle, and he's rounding into form just in time to face this team again Friday. Kazmir has gone 7 strong innings in each of his last 2 starts, both on the road against the likes of Texas and St. Louis. Mariners' starter Cliff Lee was rocked for 7 earned runs and 11 hits in 6.1 innings in his last start against the Padres.
This play also falls under a system that is 64-33 (66%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams (LA ANGELS) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent starting a pitcher who was rocked for 7 or more runs last outing. Kazmir is 27-9 against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons. The Angels are 13-4 against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season. Seattle is 6-15 on the road this season, hitting .234 and scoring 3.4 RPG away from home. Bet the Angels Friday.
Info Plays
3* on Toronto Blue Jays -180
Reasons the Blue Jays win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (TORONTO) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, with a starting pitcher who strikes out 5 or more batters per start. This is a 91-22 ML System hitting 80.5% since 1997. This system is a perfect 7-0 in 2010!
2.) Ace Shaun Marcum goes for the Blue Jays, who is 4-1 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.000 WHIP this season, including 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA in his last 3 starts. Kevin Millwood has been decent this season for Baltimore, but the Orioles are 0-5 in Millwood's 5 road starts this year where he has posted a mediocre 4.18 ERA. The Orioles are 8-25 in the last 33 meetings in Toronto. The Blue Jays are 5-0 in Marcum's last 5 starts. Toronto is 21-7 in their last 28 games as a home favorite. The Orioles are 14-48 in their last 62 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Bet the Blue Jays at home.
SPORTS WAGERS
Oakland +1.07 over DETROIT
Ben Sheets may just be getting his groove back. The Rays and Jays absolutely torched Sheets in late April and early May and after facing those two his ERA was 7.12. Since then, Sheets was thrown four games and his ERA has dropped more than two full runs and is now at .504. He threw a gem against the Rangers, Rays and in his last start in San Fran. He’s only allowed one jack over his last four starts and has pitched at least six innings or more in each of them. Sheets also has 29 K’s over his last 25 innings so it really appears as though his strength and his confidence has returned. Remember, this guy was a dominant force for years and he’s just 31 years old. Dontrelle Willis (-19 BPV, 3-5-4-0-1 PQS) has an 8.28 ERA, a -129 BPV over his last two starts and over his last 14 innings he’s issued 13 free passes. The Tigers were going to skip him in the rotation because they’ve had a couple days off this week but Jim Leyland said they decided to stick with the rotation. Yeah, ok. Here’s the truth; they’re paying him 12M this year and they’ll run him into the ground if they have to. The A’s have won five of six while the Tigers have lost four of five and there’s no doubt the value here is on the pooch. Taking a tag back against Willis is never a bad wager. Play: Oakland +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
TORONTO –1½ +1.23 over Baltimore
The Orioles blew a three-run, eighth inning lead yesterday and when the final out was recorded the camera showed many players still sitting in the dugout and staring out to nowhere. It’s the same stare players get after being eliminated in the playoffs and you could just see it in their body language that the loss last night took its toll. So many bad but avoidable things happened in that eighth inning and once again the O’s paid the price. They’re getting used to losing and one really has to wonder how they’re going to bounce back tonight against one of the premier pitchers in the business. They’ll be even more pressure on the O’s tonight because Kevin Millwood is winless and he deserves more wins than 75% of the pitchers in this league. He’s pitch very well indeed but he also thrown a ton of pitches and fatigue is beginning to appear. Millwood has thrown 113, 120, 102, 111, 109, 112, 112 and 115 pitches respectively over his last eight starts. He has allowed 18 hits over his last 14.1 innings and his ERA has been creeping up too. Millwood is very likely in for an implosion very soon and this one sets up well for that to happen. If Shaun Marcum pitched for the Yanks, Red Sox, Dodgers, Phillies or Mets, his comeback this year would be a bigger story than the return of “The Karate Kid”. Marcum is an outstanding pitcher with outstanding stuff. He has a BAA of .211 after 10 starts and rarely does he not pitch into the seventh inning. The Jays have won his last five starts by scores of 12-4, 11-2, 3-2, 7-4 and 9-3. The O’s are 15-33 overall and they’re 6-19 away from Camden Yards and they’re just so ripe to get ripped apart again here. Play: Toronto –1½ +1.23 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +1.79 over BOSTON (1st 5 innings)
This line is so high because it’s the Red Sox vs the Royals at Fenway but when you’re laying huge juice with Tim Wakefield you’re taking a big risk indeed. Wakefield may have thrown eight scoreless innings in his last start, but thanks to 19 fly balls and 2 walks to just 1 strikeout, his xERA for that game was 6.40. The fact is, he can allow 5-7 runs on any given day. When Wakefield gets rocked he almost always gets rocked early and it’s for that reason combined with the Royals very shaky pen that the play here is the Royals in the first five frames. Kyle Davies can usually be counted on for at least five decent innings. Davies is having a strong season and in fact, if you took away one truly awful start against the Rangers a few weeks ago, he would have a 3.21 ERA. The Royals are very capable of scoring a bunch of runs and they have a great chance at a great price to be leading here going to the sixth. Play Kansas City +1.75 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
GREG SHAKER
New York Mets -105
This number can be obtained at a better price, as good as +100 from what I am seeing at the books that I monitor. Can the Mets win on the road? Well they certainly have their best chance today with Santana throwing darts and a guy that can be streaky good when he does. They also have their best chance verses these Brewers who did beat Houston 2 of 3 here but in the category of "Big Whoop." Gallardo give the Brewers their best chance here and he has been a Mets Killer. But the best we can say is that we have "Even" starting pitching and then comes the Bullpens. The Mets have the clear advantage here and with 3 consecutive shutouts from their starting staff, that Pen is very well rested. Owning the second half of this contest should not be a problem. My Fancy Dancy MLB Model has New York as a .8.5 Run betterment here and it also tells me they will win just over 56% of the time. That's good enough for me.