Nelly
Philadelphia / Florida Under
Philadelphia is still valued like an elite offensive team but the Phillies have been shutout in four of the last five games and in the last nine games the Phillies have scored just 15 runs. Scoring will not come any easier against Chris Volstad who has been a very steady starter for the Marlins this season. In home games Volstad owns a 2.67 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP. Most of Volstad's struggles have come in days games where he is 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA as he has been an excellent pitcher at night. Volstad has much better overall numbers than his 3-5 record indicates and the 'under' has hit in each of his last five starts. Only 39 home runs have been hit in Florida this season and although the ‘over’ has been very successful at Sun Life Stadium that has created a high number on tonight's game. Kyle Kendrick has very mediocre season numbers this year but after struggling in his first two starts of the year his numbers have improved dramatically. Kendrick has allowed just one home run in his last four starts and while he does not a produce a high strikeout count, he also rarely walks batters and he should have success against an impatient Florida lineup. The last two games between these teams both stayed well 'under' and both teams are getting solid relief pitching in recent weeks.
Red Dog Sports
Tampa Bay at Orlando
Play Tampa -3
Tim Marcum is one o the best coaches in the AFL and he helped train the Orlando coach. Orlando has won three in a row but got some breaks. The Predator's reveivers are very good but the Storm of Tampa have the better QB and the better team. Play Tampa Bay -3.
John Ryan
Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Houston Astros
3* graded play on the Houston Astros as they take on the Cincinnati Reds set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Astros will win this game. Wandy is far better than his season stats and records would otherwise reflect. he has allowed a 242 BA to the current members of the Reds in their respective careers spanning 132 AB. Reds starter Sam LeCure is making his MLB debut and is taking the spot opened by Home Bailey being sent to the DL with shoulder issues. LeCure did very well at AAA Louisville, but this is now the MLB and all of the hitters at this level can hit extremely well. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 71-39 making 37.2 units since 1997. Play on road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 and are poor NL offensive teams scoring =4.50. Reds are also ina poor spot noting they are just 109-149 (-58.6 Units) against the money line in home games after allowing 2 runs or less since 1997. Take the Astros.
Larry Ness
Oakland Athletics @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Detroit Tigers
The A’s opened a 10-game road trip on Tuesday by losing 5-1 at Baltimore. That left them with a six-game losing streak away from Oakland but the team rebounded with wins of 6-1 (Weds) and 7-5 (Thur). However, as they open a four-game series this weekend in Detroit, the A's can't avoid these numbers. They are just 7-14 away from home while posting a 5.37 ERA as opposed to 18-9 at home (2.79 ERA). Struggling on the road is nothing new for this team, as the A's went a combined 103-139 (.426) the last three seasons away from Oakland. Ben Sheets gets the start in this one. He missed all of last season following elbow surgery but nonetheless, Oakland signed him to a $10 million, one-year contract. One wonders if the A's realized that Sheets stayed healthy enough to make more than 24 starts just ONCE in a four-year stretch from 2005-08? He's been healthy this season, already making 10 starts, posting a 2-3 record with a 5.04 ERA (team is 4-6). However, let's note that he's 0-2 with a 9.78 ERA in his four road starts (team is 0-4). The Tigers counter with Dontrelle Willis, who will be making his eighth start of 2010. That's reason enough to show some kind of hope, as the lefty was able to stay healthy enough the last two seasons to make just seven starts each year for the Tigers (1-6 with an 8.27 ERA / team was 4-10). He's surely no longer the pitcher who went 22-10 (2.63 ERA) in 2005 but at least he's been able to take a regular turn in the rotation (1-2 with a 4.97 ERA in seven starts / team is 4-3). The A's have struggled with lefties away from home since 2008, going 22-37 (.373), so there's no reason to think Willis can't survive here, especially with the Detroit bats getting to go up against Sheets and his 9.78 road ERA in 2010.
David Chan
Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Minnesota Twins
Take the Twins, opposing Rangers’ starter CJ Wilson. Check the game out on FOX.
Wilson had a nice start to the season but in his last three starts he’s 0-1 with an ERA of 6.88. He’s faced Oakland, the Angels, and the Cubs—not quite Murderers’ Row. Over that stretch his WHIP is 1.47. I think the former reliever is battling fatigue as he tries to settle into the rotation for the long haul. He only pitched 74 innings all last season; he’s gone 58.2 already and it’s the end of May.
The Twins are 9-5 against southpaw starters this season and will be looking forward to playing Wilson.
This number is floating around -120 to -125 in the overnight market because in three 2009 starts against the Rangers, Twins starter Carl Pavano was roughed up twice. I think the proper number is still -150 or -155, so there’s value here regardless.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies +110
The Phillies are 9-2 in the last 11 road games in this series. They are 10-2 in Kendrick's last 12 starts with 5 days of rest and 15-5 in his last 20 starts during game 1 of a series. The Marlins are 5-11 in Volstad's last 16 starts as a home favorite, 3-10 in his last 13 starts and 2-8 in his last 10 starts during game 1 of a series. Look for the defending NL champs to bounce back strong tonight after a horrible series against the Mets.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on New York Yankees -1.5 -106
The Yankees are hitting a ridiculous .301 as a team at home this season and scoring 6.3 runs in those games on average. Meanwhile, the Indians are hitting just .255 on the road and scoring only 3.7 runs per game. They'll be lucky to get that many tonight against Hughes, who is 5-1 with a 2.72 ERA on the season. Carmona has been solid for the Tribe this season, but they have lost 4 of his last 5 starts. The Indians are a brutal 4-22 in their last 26 series openers and 0-6 in their last 6 games as an underdog of +201 or greater. The Indians are also 8-22 in the last 30 meetings in New York. The Yankees are 51-15 in their last 66 home games, 10-1 in Hughes' last 11 starts as a home favorite and 5-0 in Hughes' last 5 home starts. We'll take the Yanks on the run line.
Stan Lisowski
DETROIT
Tigers are 14-6 at home, 10-5 as a host against righties. The home team is a combined 14-3 in Sheets’ and Willis’ outings this season. A’s are only 7-14 on the road.