Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday May, 4

Marc Lawrence

St Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals and Astros meet in Houston in the opener of a three-game series tonight when Kyle Lohse matches serves with Lucas Harrell. Lohse takes the hill sporting a 7-4 record with a 2.44 ERA in his last eleven team starts against the Astros knowing the Redbirds are 7-2 in his last nine road starts, including 4-0 the last four. On the flip side, Harrell is in lousy KW form with 8 strikeouts and 11 walks in his last four starts. Harrell is also 3-7 in his ten MLB career team starts. Back the better arm and the better team here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on St. Louis.

Jim Feist

Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Cincinnati Reds

The Reds are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter and face Kevin Correia, who has a 4.69 ERA against them. Cincy has ace Johnny Cueto on the hill with a 3-0 record and a 1.39 ERA. He's 10-3 with a 2.70 ERA against the Pirates. The Reds are also 5-2 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Pirates are 8-25 in their last 33 vs. a team with a losing record and 2-6 in Correia's last 8 starts, while the Reds are 6-1 in Cueto's last 7 road starts against the Pirates. Play the Reds.

Freddy Wills

Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Texas Rangers

I'll go with the Rangers who have just continued to role and they are on fire right now going 27-6 in their last 33 road games when they are favored. They are also 63-28 in their last 91 vs. a RH starter and 13-3 in their last 16 at Cleveland. The Indians have not faired well at home and are 27th with a .630 OPS at home while they have played great on the road. That sounds a lot like Colby Lewis who has not pitched well at home but on the road he's been great going back to last season. Lewis has 3-0 record over his last 3 starts and 1.05 WHIP with a 2.25 ERA over his last three starts. The Indians have not had a lot success against him as he's 4-0 while the Cleveland hitters have just a .687 OPS over 75 AB. The Rangers will face off against a right handed pitcher where they own the leagues 3rd best OPS.

Jeanmar Gomez has been solid, but he's really only had two starts this year against Oakland and the LA Angels who are ranked 29th and 20th vs. RHP. If he can't go deep the Indians bullpen that's ranked 18th is in a lot of trouble. The Rangers on the other hand have the 3rd best bullpen this year at 2.30. Just how bad are the Indians struggling at home they are hitting .214 and scoring just 2.44 runs per 9 vs. RHP while the Rangers are at .289 and 5.50 on the road.

Notable Hot Starters:
Johny Cueto (2-1, 1.08 WHIP, 0.89 ERA)
Kyle Lohse (3-0, 1.05 WHIP, 1.80 ERA)
David Bass (1-2, 1.11 WHIP, 2.37 ERA)
Zach Greinke (3-0, 1.42 WHIP, 2.37 ERA)
Jake Peavy (2-1, 0.56WHIP, 0.72 ERA)
Drew Smyly (2-1, 1.06 WHIP, 1.00 ERA)
David Price (3-0, 1.10 WHIP, 1.71 ERA)
Wei-Yin Chen (3-0, 1.29 WHIP, 1.93 ERA)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
Friday's cold starter with the best shot to win has got to be John Lester who posts a 2-1 record and a 1.75 WHIP, along with a 6.75 ERA over his last 3 starts combined. Lester however has dominated the Orioles over his career. They have 208 AB, but just a .678 OPS far below average. Lester is backed by one of the best offenses in the game and he'll be home on Friday night.

Notable Cold Starters:
Bruce Chen (0-3, 1.32 WHIP, 5.94 ERA)
Tyson Ross (2-1, 1.68 WHIP, 6.48 ERA)

EZWINNERS

Washington Nationals -215

The Phillies bats have woke up some recently, but I look for them to be silent once again in this game. The National's starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg has been domination so far this season. Strasburg is off to a 2-0 start with an ERA of just 1.13. In his last start against the Dodgers he allowed just one run in seven innings and struck out nine batters. The Phillies starting pitcher Kyle Kendrick has been very hittable this season as he is 0-2 with an ERA of 6.59. Look for the Nats and rookie Bryce Harper to give their ace the run support that he needs to pick up the win here. Play on Washington.

Rob Vinciletti

Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox

Boston fits a system that is 26-4 and if the line were not as high as it is they would be units rated. However at -175 they will be the free play. Play on Home favorites of -140 or higher off a home favored loss at -140 or higher if they scored 2 or less runs and lost by 2 or more runs vs an opponent off a +140 or higher road dog win by 5 or more runs and had 1 or more errors and left 10 or more men left on base. The Red Sox will look to rebound while The Orioles are off a big series in New York. The Sox are scoring over 7 runs per game vs leftys and have won 5 of 7 with a total of 8 to 8.5. They average 5.8 runs here at home and Baltimore has gone 1-5 vs losing teams. Lester goes for Boston and he is 14-0 vs the Orioles. He draws Baltimore rookie W. Chen who makes his first start here in Fenway. Look for Boston to take game one.

Dave Cokin

Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies
Pick: Atlanta Braves

Tim Hudson made his 2012 debut last weekend and the veteran righty showed he can still get guys out when he's healthy. I give Hudson a nice edge over Guillermo Moscoso, an extreme fly ball type who doesn't figure to succeed at Coors. Good enough spot to back the Braves as road chalk.

JR O'Donnell

Chicago White Sox. Sox -115

The Oster's Friday members play is scheduled for 7:05 PM EST as the Detroit Tigers host the Chicago White Sox. Sox are 12-12 while the Tigers punch in @ exactly the same. These Tigers have struggled against the RHP and are 6-8 overall! CWS send another Monster Jake Peavy to the mound, and he is 3-1, 1.67 ERA & .69 WHIP. He has averaged 7 2/3 per game and is holding the opposition to a .162 batting average His mound opponent Drew Smyly is 1-0, 1.23 ERA & 1.18 WHIP. It is not realistic to expect this dominance on his part to continue. Peavy has been just outstanding, and will continue to do so!

SPORTS WAGERS

Toronto +114 over L.A. ANGELS

Based on current form alone, the Blue Jays are worth a close look here. They came in here last night and took the opener 5-0 to extend their run to three wins in a row wins and five wins in six games. Toronto has scored 42 runs over that span. Other than beating up on the 6-18 Twins, L.A. hasn’t been able to hit anyone else. They’re averaging 1.9 runs per game against the rest of the AL and while they’re likely to wake up at some point, a struggling team is one to avoid when asked to lay a price. The Angels will face an extreme groundball pitcher here in Henderson Alvarez. Alvarez has induced more groundballs than any pitcher in the majors. Alvarez has just one win over his first five starts but could easily have four because he’s had only one poor start. Earvin Santana is 0-5 with a 5.58 ERA. Santana could be a little shell-shocked after allowing two bombs or more in four of his five starts this season. In 12 IP at home, Santana has been taken yard four times and that doesn’t bode well here against a Blue Jay team that is swinging some hot bats right now. A hot Blue Jays team taking back a tag has so much more appeal than a cold Angels team spotting one. Play: Toronto +114 (Risking 2 units).

CHICAGO +126 over Los Angeles

Chad Billingsley is 2-1 with a 2.64 ERA after posting a 4.21 ERA a season ago. While an improvement in his ERA was expected, it’s not going to remain this low and therefore some rough outings are forthcoming. When we look at Billingsley’s history at Wrigley we see a 2.41 ERA but an xERA of 4.47 after allowing 25 hits in 18 innings for a BAA of .309. When we look at his games this season, we see Billingsley has faced San Diego, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Houston and Washington. That’s not a difficult slate and when he pitched in Houston he got clobbered. Billingsley has always been on a roller-coaster ride and he’s simply too risky to be favored by this much on the road. The Dodgers are winning at an unsustainable .680 clip but they’re just 7-6 on the road. The Cubs are playing better with a 5-5 record over their past 10. They have a lot of exciting young players and will go through more highs and lows than most teams but will also offer up some nice value in the right spot. It’s no mystery what Paul Maholm is going to give. He’ll throw around 200 innings and win between seven and 10 games. He’ll throw the occasional gem but for the most part he’ll go about six innings and give the Cubs a chance to win. Maholm has a strong groundball profile and is less erratic than his counterpart here. Don’t overrate Chad Billingsley. Play: Chicago +126 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

DENVER -4 over L.A. Lakers

The Lakers cruised to a game one victory. They had a 19-point lead in game two and held off the Nuggets to win by four but it seemed like the Lakers were in control the whole way with no real threat to lose it. Now they’re taking back four points in a series that they’ve pretty much owned and that looks rather appealing. Not so fast. These Nuggets are so dangerous. They’re quicker and more efficient offensively than any playoff team but it has not shown up in these playoffs over 48 minutes. It’s shown up in spurts but not over an entire game yet. Now the Nuggets return home in the high altitude of Denver, where the bench has a bigger impact on the outcome. Denver’s bench is deep and talented. They can run out a number of players that present numerous challenges. Some of the Nuggets best shooters were off in L.A., as Denver shot a low percentage in both games yet lost game two by just four. Then there’s Kobe Bryant. You breathe on him in L.A and a foul is called. He won’t get that luxury on the road where the Lakers lost 18 of 33 games. The Nuggets are far from done. They could warm up real quick and absolutely run over this aging intruder because they really are that dangerous. The odds makers have created a line to entice the public into betting the Lakers and most of them will take the bait. Don’t be included in that group. Play: Denver -4 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).

David Banks

Denver Nuggets -4

The Los Angeles Lakers (43-25, 29-39 ATS) did what they had to do while holding serve at home in the first two games of this series vs. the Denver Nuggets (38-30, 37-31 ATS) for a 2-0 lead, but things may not come as easily with the change in both venue and altitude here. Game 3 is at the Pepsi Center in Denver, CO on Friday night at 10:30 ET and it will be televised on ESPN. Remember that the Nuggets finished strong at home this year and that the Lakers struggled on the road, and that the suspect Los Angeles bench may see more minutes at mile-high elevation.

The Lakers won Game 1 easily 103-88 as 4-point favorites and truth be told, their 104-100 win in Game 2 was not really as close as the final score either. Granted it will not do the sore losers who had the Lakers -5 in that game any good, but the Lakers never trailed in that entire contest and the Nuggets never got closer than the four-point final margin after trailing by as much as 14 points in the second half in what was either a brutal or an ecstatic backdoor cover, obviously depending on what side you were on. The Lakers were definitely the right side though as they held Denver to just 44.0 percent shooting including a horrific 21.1 percent on three-point attempts. Just about the only encouraging sign for the Nuggets was that they produced 30 fast-break points after managing only 19 points on the break in Game 1. As for the Los Angeles offense, Kobe Bryant poured in 38 points while Andrew Bynum added 27 points and nine points. Perhaps the biggest story though was that the oft-maligned Lakers' bench scored a total of only eight points (six by Jordan Hill and two by Matt Barnes), and that is not what you want to see given the bench figures to play a bit more in elevation. On top of all that, the Lakers were not the best of road teams this year to begin with, going 15-18 straight up and 12-21 against the spread on the NBA highway.

Denver was a disappointing 20-13 at home this year but the Nuggets did finish strong by winning six of their last seven games at the Pepsi Center. This team led the NBA in scoring with 104.1 points per game and it loves to run, especially at home. Look for the Nuggets to do just that at every opportunity, which would force the Lakers to either leave their fatigued starters affected by the running in the altitude in the game or go to their unreliable bench more than expected. The best way for Los Angeles to prevent that is with stiff defense, but as oftentimes happens with teams up 2-0 in a series, we are not so sure the Lakers will be playing at the same intensity as the more desperate Nuggets, who should be breathing fire from the get-go as they try and get back in this series.

Now the Nuggets do have history on their side as teams returning home down 0-2 in a series are 91-49 straight up and 73-61-6 ATS since the 2000-01 post-season. However, this head-to-head series has not been kind to Denver as the Lakers are now 5-1 straight up in all the meetings this year combining regular season and playoffs including 1-1 here in Denver.

SCOTT DELANEY

Scored a winner on the Washington Nationals as the freebie for Thursday. Tonight I look to make it two straight, and seven of my last 11 with comp plays, as I jump onto the NBA hardwood and play the Over in tonight's Chicago-Philadelphia game.

This total is a bit low for me, since I think we saw the biggest problem in Game 2 was Chicago failing to score points in the second half. I'm not ready to buy into the thought process that Philly is actually beating Chicago at its own defensive ball game.

Losing Derrick Rose certainly broke the Bulls' spirit, and perhaps in the second round it'll break more than that. But I just don't see another futile performance like we saw in the second half of Game 2. Chicago has too much pride for that, and will be out to put it on the Sixers in this game tonight.

Two games in, and Philadelphia has held the Bulls to 97.5 points and 48.1 percent shooting. But I don't know how much of that is the Sixers, and how much of that is the Bulls playing with a lack of confidence now that D Rose is out.

Okay, so we saw them put the clamps - apparently - on Luol Deng and Carlos Boozer. But how long is that going to last. How long before we see the Bulls play a complete game in this series, and what happens when they do?

Now don't let me get sidetracked here, I'm not on the Bulls. I just think by them coming to perform, them coming in looking to score points early, we're in store for a huge shootout that could get these two closer to 190.

This one should be interesting, and I'm going to bet the Bulls evenly distribute the rock and get everyone involved, while the Sixers will be keeping up and playing with everything they've got, to take a 2-1 lead in the series. Play this one high.

4♦ BULLS/SIXERS OVER

JEFF BENTON

Your Friday freebie is the Philadelphia 76ers as the small home favorite over the shell-shocked Chicago Bulls.

Yes, Chicago has played numerous games this season without Derrick Rose, but they were all in the regular season. Things are a bit different at this time of the year, a bit more magnified, and it is obvious that Philadelphia now has a belief that they can not only compete with the Bulls - but beat the Bulls!

You saw the Sixers erupt in the third quarter on on Tuesday to win Game Two going away, 109-92.

I don't expect another double-digit win by Philly, but remember that the 76ers have now win four of the last seven series meetings against the Bulls. Doug Collins is no dummy. With the extra day to prepare, he will have his team ready to protect the home court advantage they now enjoy - at least for tonight.

Back the Sixers to hold serve tonight over the Bulls.

2♦ PHILADELPHIA

CHUCK O'BRIEN

My free winner streak is now at 22-11, and tonight I am looking to make it 23 of 34 with the home underdog San Diego Padres getting it done over the visiting Miami Marlins, and I want you listing starting pitchers Anthony Bass and Josh Johnson.

Needless to say, Johnson hasn't lived up to expectations for the Marlins, as he's still looking for his first win of the season, and make note he hasn't won since April 19, 2011. In five starts this season he's shown nothing more than inconsistency, and tonight he comes in after a rough outing, as he allowed five runs on 10 hits over 5-1/3 innings to the Diamondbacks. Johnson is 0-3 with a 5.34 ERA in five starts this season.

I'd rather back Bass, who is in after striking out a career-high eight batters in eight innings, and retiring the first 17 Giants' hitters he faced. And get this, he lost, 2-1, to Tim Lincecum. He's going to be out to redeem himself, and is in a good spot to do so inside pitcher-friendly Petco Park.

This kid features a live arm from a high-3/4 arc, and comes with two quality pitches – a mid-90s fastball and a hard, tilted slider. One scouting reports told me he tends to rush and over throw everything, yet all I've seen this season is after opening the year in the Padres' bullpen, he's pitched to a 2.31 ERA with 27 strikeouts versus just 10 walks over 23-1/3 innings of work since making it into the rotation.

I'm going to take the underdog here, as he's been pitching much better and will be out to avenge last week's loss to the Giants.

4♦ SAN DIEGO

CHRIS JORDAN

My free winner for Friday night is going to be on the home underdog Kansas City Royals, catching money from the New York Yankees, who are laying an awfully big price on the road, for a team that has lost three straight and six of nine. Granted, I know these are the Yankees, and we're talking about a Royals team that is just 8-16, but I still think we're catching great value tonight with this game.

I'm going to insist you list both pitchers: New York-ace C.C. Sabathia and Kansas City's Bruce Chen. Big challenge for Chen? Absolutely. But you'd be amazed how well a guy like Chen will respond, when playing arguably one of the best teams in the league, and coming in off his worst start of the season, last Sunday.

Throwing a season-low 2-2/3 innings against the Twins, the left-hander was abused for six runs on six hits for his third consecutive loss. He's hungry, he'll be pissed off, he'll be at his best since it's the Yankees, and most importantly - he's due.

Look for Chen to rely on savvy, location and different arm angles to be effective tonight against the Yankees' potent lineup. Pitches backward at times because of his ability to throw his off speed stuff for strikes. This lineup won't be that much of a surprise, as he saw it much more often when he was with the Baltimore Orioles. Thus, I don't think he'll be easily rattled in this one.

I know Sabathia has started to come into his own, especially in his last two outings. The power lefty has earned a victory in each of his last three starts, and has struck out 16 batters in his last two games combined.

And ready for this, I'm really taking a chance since he owns the most career wins against the Royals. In 34 career starts, he is 17-10 with a 3.30 ERA. But if I remember correctly, recently Justin Verlander brought a 14-2 history against the Royals into his last start against them, and he lost.

Take the dog, list both, and thank me in the morning.

3♦ KANSAS CITY