Sammy P Sports
Texas at Cleveland
Play: Under 8.5
Two of the hottest pitchers in the American League match up tonight in Cleveland with Colby Lewis taking on Jeanmar Gomez. Possibly the best kept secret in the AL this season is Jeanmar Gomez. A young pitcher out of Caracas, Gomez has shown considerable growth after his first two seasons in the majors and he has been lights out for the Indians to start the young campaign. In his first start this season he was thrown out of the game in the 2nd inning for throwing at a Kansas City batter prompting the benches to clear. Since then, he has two quality starts posting an overall WHIP of 0.85 and an ERA of 2.35. He is definitely a young pitcher to keep your eye on as this is by no means the same Gomez from past seasons, and I'm being proactive with him until the marketplace catches up despite the probable return of Josh Hamilton and Adrian Beltre to the Texas lineup tonight. Texas hurler Colby Lewis has been spectacular this season posting a 1.93 ERA and a 29/4 K/BB ratio over 32.2 innings of work. Lewis and the Rangers have gone UNDER their posted total in four of his five starts this season. I expect a low scoring affair tonight in Cleveland where both pitchers aren't going to hurt themselves with unforced mistakes.
MLB Predictions
Toronto Blue Jays +111
The Blue Jays took game 1 of this four game series last night lead by a great pitching performance from Brenden Morrow, moving them to 15-11 on the year and 7-4 on the road. The Blue Jays have now won 5 of their last 6 games, and have one of their most consistent starters on the mound tonight. Henderson Alvarez is just 1-2, but has a solid 3.62 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and .223 opponents batting average over his 5 starts. He has worked 6+ innings in all of his starts and has allowed 3 or less earned runs in 4 of the 5 starts. After sweeping the Twins at home in a 3 game series the Angels dropped last night's game to fall back to 10-16 on the season. Ervin Santana will be on the mound tonight for the Angels and he is off to a rough 0-5 start to the season. His last outing was his best as he went 7 innings giving up 8 hits and 2 earned runs, but on the season Santana has a 6.16 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and .290 opponents batting average. Santana has giving up 6 or more hits in all of his starts, and 21 earned runs over 30.2 innings of work. Dating back to last season the Angels are 0-9 in Santana's last 9 starts, and 0-5 in his last 5 starts vs an AL East opponent. The Angels are just 1-7 in their last 8 vs a team with a winning record, and 0-5 in their last 5 overall vs an AL East team. The Jays are 5-2 in their last 7 games as an underdog, and 6-2 in their last 8 games following a win. Note that the Blue Jays have taken 5 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams. The Blue Jays have scored 5+ runs in 6 of their last 7 games and if they can give Alvarez that kind of run support that should set him up for his second win of the season. I like the Jays at an underdog price tonight.
Teddy Covers
Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
Erwin Santana is in quite a rut these days. The Angels are 0-5 in his five starts this year, picking up right where they left off last year when the Halos closed out the season losing each of Santana’s last four starts. And it’s not like Santana is getting outdueled on a nightly basis. His spent September struggling with his control, and he spent April getting lit up to the tune of a 6.16 ERA. During LA’s 0-9 run with Santana on the hill, they’ve been favored seven times, dropping games to weaker foes like the Mariners, A’s and Royals.
While the Angels have been the single worst team in all of baseball from a ‘money earned or money lost’ perspective so far this season (down a whopping 12.4 units through their first 26 games), the Blue Jays have been consistent moneymakers for their supporters so far in 2012. Toronto has proven their mettle on the highway; taking two out of three from the first place Indians, and sweeping KC as part of their 7-4 road start. Starter Henderson Alvarez has been light’s out, throwing four quality starts in five tries so far this season. Expect more of the same tonight against the slumping Angels lineup. Take Toronto
Kyle Hunter
St.Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros
Play: St.Louis Cardinals
Kyle Lohse has been one of the best pitchers in the majors so far this year. I definitely don't think he can pitch this well all year, but the Astros are a team I believe he can handle. The Astros start Lucas Harrell, who is having command issues right now. The Astros are 0-4 in Harrell's last 4 starts. The Cardinals are 6-0 in Lohse's last 6 starts overall. The Cardinals are 6-2 in their last 8 games at Houston. Take St. Louis.
Jack Jones
Los Angeles Angels -122
The Los Angeles Angels are on a nice little run here of late, which has them playing with a lot more confidence after a slow start to the season. They had won three straight before a 5-0 loss to Toronto in Game 1 last night, and I believe they get back on track behind Ervin Santana in Game 2.
Year in and year out, Santana is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The righty had 11 wins with a 3.38 ERA and 1.220 WHIP in 2011 while also throwing a no-hitter last year. He's off to a slow start in 2012, but he'll get things turned around here tonight.
Santana loves facing the Blue Jays, going 6-4 with a 3.700 ERA and 1.210 WHIP in 12 career starts against Toronto. In his last two starts against the Blue Jays in 2011, Santana gave up just 3 earned runs over 15 innings.
The Blue Jays are 1-5 in Henderson Alvarez's last 6 starts. The Angels are 36-17 in their last 53 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Los Angeles is 19-7 in Santana's last 26 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Bet the Angels Friday.
Vegas Experts
Boston at Atlanta
Play: Boston
Boston is a big favorite tonight but for good reason as the Hawks haven't been able to do anything offensively in the first two games of this series, and now travel to Beantown where the Celtics give up less than 90 ppg on the season. Rondo will be back after serving a one-game suspension and we look for an inspired effort from the home team in a double-digit win!
WUNDERDOG
Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs
Pick: Chicago Cubs +125
The Los Angeles Dodgers got off on the fast track, and the biggest reason was the hot bats of Ethier, and Kemp, but they have settled down. The Dodgers have been great at home, but ordinary on the road where they are 7-6 to start the season. Chad Billingsley has followed suit allowing 7 runs in 9.1 innings on the road in his last two starts. Overall, going back to last season the Dodgers are now just 4-7 when he takes the ball on the road. Paul Maholm opened the season pitching in a Cubs uniform for the first time, with two horrendous outings, but has found the groove in each of his last two starts allowing a total of just 2 runs. The Dodgers are playing down to the level of competition on the road at 9-20 in their last 29 vs. a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Play on the Cubs.
WUNDERDOG
Los Angeles Lakers at Denver
Pick: UNDER 103 1st Half
The Denver Nuggets were beaten pretty soundly in Game 1, but came back to play the Lakers to within 4 points in Game 2. They have their backs to the wall, but can build on their close call in Game 2 by getting a crack at the Lake Show on their home court. It is going to start on the defensive end for Denver, as in the 96 minutes played in LA they did not lead at any time. That means the Nuggets have to come out breathing fire on the defensive end in this one, and stop the Lakers from getting off to a big offensive start. Third games of a playoffs series are 28-12 to the UNDER with a total of 100 or more, while Denver is 72-2 to the first half UNDER when revenging four or more losses vs. an opponent, so play on the first half UNDER.
Dave Price
Cincinnati Reds -133
I'll get behind the Reds here with Johnny Cueto on the bump. The talented right-hander has been dealing out of the gate, going 3-0 (4-1 on the money line) with an ERA of 1.39 through his first 5 starts. Plus, he's 10-3 (10-5 on the ML) lifetime with an ERA of 2.70 versus Pittsburgh. Correia was lit up for 6 earned runs in 6 innings at home in his most recent start against the Reds. Cincy is yet to really get its bats going, but keep in mind that Correia is even 0-7 on the ML in home games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since the beginning of last season. The Pirates have lost these games by an average of 5.0 runs. Take Cincy.
Jeff Alexander
San Francisco Giants -106
The Brewers have struggled on the road as they are batting just .214 away from Miller Park. Scheduled starter Zack Greinke has also struggled in 2 road starts with an ugly 8.38 ERA. Tim Lincecum has rebounded from a rough start and has only allowed a total of 1 earned run in back-to-back wins. The Giants are 5-2 in Lincecum's last 7 starts vs. the Brewers. The Brewers are 2-5 in Greinke's last 7 starts as a road underdog and 2-8 in their last 10 road games. Bet the Giants.
Jimmy Boyd
St. Louis Cardinals -143
The Cards have the edge with Kyle Lohse on the hill. The righty is 4-0 (5-0 on the ML) with an ERA of 1.62, including 3-0 on the road with an ERA of 1.33. He is 8-6 (8-7 on the ML) with an ERA of 2.64 in 15 career starts versus Houston. He's 2-0 in his last 2 starts versus the Astros, allowing just 1 earned run in 15 innings of work.
The Astros counter with Lucas Harrell. They have lost each of his last 4 starts and 7 of his last 8. He's been rocked his last two times out, giving up 10 earned in 11 innings.
The Cards lost to Pittsburgh Thursday but are 21-5 in their last 26 games following a loss. They've won 10 of their last 14 versus the Astros, including 6 of their last 8 in Houston. We'll take the Cardinals.