SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Boston (5-2 SU and ATS) at Cleveland (5-2, 3-4 ATS)
The fourth-seeded Celtics, fresh off a Game 2 road upset, look to protect their home court when they face the top-seeded Cavaliers at TD Garden in Game 3 of the best-of-7 Eastern Conference semifinals.
Boston led by double digits most of the night Monday, holding off a late Cleveland surge in a 104-86 blowout as a six-point road underdog. Six Celtics scored in double figures, led by Ray Allen (22 points) and Kevin Garnett (18 points, 10 rebounds), while Rajon Rondo had 13 points and an eye-popping 19 assists. Doc Rivers’ troops also had a sizable advantage on the boards, outrebounding the Cavaliers, 43-32.
Cleveland got 24 points from LeBron James, but only two others reached double figures as the Cavs shot just 40 percent from the field (28 of 70), including a meager 4-for-21 effort from three-point range (19 percent). Boston, meanwhile, shot a stout 51.3 percent (40 of 78), hitting 9 of 19 from long distance (47.4 percent). Cleveland tumbled despite a huge discrepancy at the free-throw line, as it toed the stripe 38 times and made 26, while Boston was 15 of 18.
Cleveland is 27-16 SU (23-19-1 ATS) on the road this year (1-1 SU and ATS in the playoffs), averaging 101.5 ppg on 47.4 percent shooting while allowing 97.0 ppg (44.6 percent). Boston is 27-17 SU at home, winning and cashing in three first-round contests against the Heat, but the Celtics are just 15-28-1 ATS in Beantown, where they average 100.0 ppg (48.8 percent shooting) and give up 95.8 (45.6 percent).
Despite the Game 2 setback, Cleveland has owned this rivalry lately, going 19-8-2 ATS in the last 29 meetings (3-3 this season), including 7-3 ATS in the last 10 contests at the Garden. The home team and the chalk are 6-3 ATS in the last nine matchups, and Cleveland is on a 7-2 ATS run in playoff games against Boston (6-1 ATS last seven), having covered in six of seven during a second-round meeting two seasons ago.
Also, the SU winner has cashed in nine straight series clashes, including all six this season.
The Celtics are on pointspread upswings of 5-2 overall, 8-2-1 as a home underdog and 10-4-1 as a postseason pup, though they also shoulder ATS slides of 12-26-1 at home, 5-14 in second-round play,1-6 after three or more days off, 2-8 following a SU win and 2-7 coming off a spread-cover.
The Cavaliers are on ATS purges of 5-12 overall, 1-7 against winning teams, 4-10 as a favorite, 0-6 on Friday and 3-9 after a SU loss. However, they carry positive pointspread streaks of 18-7-1 in second-round playoff games and 18-8-1 as a playoff chalk, and they are on an 8-2 ATS run as a playoff favorite of less than five points.
The under is 18-6 in Cleveland’s last 24 conference semifinal contests, but the Cavs are otherwise on a bundle of “over” surges, including 11-2 against Atlantic Division foes, 8-3 as a playoff favorite, 5-1 on the highway, 4-0 as a road chalk and 27-5-3 laying less than five on the road. Likewise, Boston is on “over” sprees of 11-5 overall, 6-2 at the Garden, 4-0 after either a SU or an ATS win, 7-2 as an underdog, 5-1 as a home ‘dog and 7-2 against the Central Division.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total barely stayed low in Game 2, ending a 5-0 “over” surge between these two this year. Still, the over has been the play in five of the last six meetings in Boston, including a 117-113 Celtics win as a 1½-point pup on April 4.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
San Antonio (4-4 SU, 3-4-1 ATS) at Phoenix (6-2 SU and ATS)
The surging Suns, coming off victories in the first two games of this series, now hit the road for Game 3 against the seventh-seeded Spurs at the AT&T Center.
Phoenix got nearly identical results in Games 1 and 2 at home, taking the opener 111-102 as a four-point chalk Monday and the second game 110-102 giving 2½ points on Wednesday. In Game 2, six players scored in double figures, with Amare Stoudemire notching a double-double of 23 points and 11 rebounds, and Steve Nash and Jason Richardson each scoring 19. Channing Frye may have been the key, though, going 5 of 6 from three-point range to help the third-seeded to Suns pull away.
San Antonio had a 30-21 lead after the first quarter Wednesday and lost despite outshooting Phoenix 50.6 percent to 42.4 percent. However, the Spurs got outrebounded 49-37 and committed 31 fouls that sent the Suns to the charity stripe 37 times, translating to 29 points. The Spurs were 15 of 22 from the line. Tim Duncan had 29 points and 10 boards despite being plagued by foul trouble in the second half, and Tony Parker added 20 points, but Manu Ginobili (five fouls) was held to 11 points, though he had 11 assists.
Phoenix is 24-20 SU (25-19 ATS) on the highway this season (2-1 SU and ATS in the postseason), averaging 107.2 ppg on 48.5 percent shooting and allowing 106.4 ppg (45.6 percent). San Antonio is 32-12 SU (26-16-2 ATS) at the AT&T Center this year (3-0 SU, 2-0-1 ATS in the playoffs), putting up 104.7 ppg (49.0 percent shooting) and yielding 96.5 ppg (45.9 percent shooting).
Phoenix has cashed in all five meetings this season in this rivalry (4-1 SU), but only one of those contests was in San Antonio, where the Suns lost 113-110 on Feb. 28 as a four-point pup. Phoenix is 5-2-1 ATS on its last eight trips to the Alamo, the favorite and the home team are both 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes, and the SU winner is 15-1-1 ATS in the last 17 Spurs-Suns matchups.
These two teams met in the first round two seasons ago, with the Spurs advancing 4-1 (2-2-1 ATS), and in the second round three years ago, with San Antonio winning in six games (3-2-1 ATS).
The Suns are on a boatload of spread-covering sprees, including 31-11-1 overall, 14-6 on the road, 9-3 as a road pup, 18-5 against the Southwest Division, 17-6-1 after a spread-cover and 35-16-1 after a day off.
The Spurs are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five starts, but are otherwise on pointspread upswings of 21-11-1 overall, 3-0-1 at home, 8-3 after either a SU or an ATS setback, 9-4-1 after a day off, 12-3-1 as a favorite and 21-6-3 as a playoff chalk.
In this rivalry, the total has gone high in six of the last seven meetings overall, including all five this season, with Wednesday’s game clearing the 205-point price. In addition, Phoenix is on “over” stretches of 11-4 against the Southwest Division (5-1 last six) and 12-4 in second-round playoff games.
On the flip side, the Suns also sport “under” streaks of 6-0-1 on the highway, 5-0-1 as a pup and 9-2 on Friday, and San Antonio is on “under” rolls of 6-2-1 overall, 5-1 after a day off, 6-1 laying five to 10½ points and 7-3 as a playoff favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Francisco (17-10) at N.Y. Mets (15-13)
The surging Giants continue a six-game East Coast road trip with a stop at Citi Field for weekend series, with left-hander Jonathan Sanchez (2-2, 2.48) slated to start for opposite the Mets’ Mike Pelfrey (4-1, 2.40).
San Francisco completed a three-game sweep of the Marlins in Florida with Thursday’s 6-3 victory, as Matt Cain pitched 5 2/3 hitless innings and cruised to his second win of the season. The Giants have now won nine of 12 since a four-game losing streak (all on the road). They’re also on positive runs of 6-1 against the N.L. East, 5-1 against right-handed starters, 4-1 on Friday and 18-5 in series openers.
New York capped a six-game road trip with Wednesday’s 5-4 loss in Cincinnati as it dropped four of its last five the trip following a season-best eight-game winning streak. Seven of those eight wins came in the Mets’ most recent homestand, which they finished with a 9-1 record. Additionally, New York has won four straight against the N.L. West, five of six on Friday and five of seven after a day off, but is just 9-23 in its last 32 versus lefty starters.
The Mets took five of eight meetings with San Francisco last year, splitting a four-game series at Citi Field. Going back to 2008, New York is on a 10-3 roll in this rivalry, and it has won six of the last eight clashes in Queens.
Sanchez gave up three runs on three hits and five walks over 4 2/3 innings in Sunday’s 4-1 home loss to Colorado. He’s now walked five batters in each of his last two starts (both at home), and he’s issued more free passes (18) than hits (17) this season. On the bright side, the 27-year-old has held eight straight opponents to three runs or less.
San Francisco has won seven of Sanchez’s last nine starts overall and six in a row when he pitches on Friday, but it is just 6-18 in his last 24 road efforts. In his only previous road start this season, Sanchez allowed just one run on one hit while striking out 10 in San Diego, but was saddled with a 1-0 loss. He’s 2-1 with a 3.91 ERA in six games (four starts) against the Mets, with San Francisco losing the last three starts, including two in New York (5-0 in 2008; 3-2 in 2009).
Pelfrey is coming off by far his worst performance of the season, as he lasted just four innings in Saturday’s 10-0 loss in Philadelphia, giving up six runs on eight hits. The right-hander entered that contest with a scoreless streak of 24 innings and extended that to 27 before allowing six runs in the fourth inning. In fact, Pelfrey had surrendered just two runs and 17 hits in his first five appearances (four starts) starts spanning 26 innings.
The Mets are on a 6-2 roll at home behind Pelfrey, who is 3-0 with a scant 1.00 ERA in three starts at Citi Field (two runs allowed in 18 innings). Also, Pelfrey has dominated the Giants in three career starts (two last year), giving up a total of four runs on 14 hits and three walks in 20 1/3 innings (1.77 ERA). New York won two of the three contests, with both wins coming at home.
The Giants have stayed under the total in 13 of 17 overall, five of seven on the road, eight of 10 against right-handed starters and four of five in series openers. Also, the under is 4-0 in Sanchez’s last four starts overall and 6-1-1 in his last eight road outings.
Meanwhile, New York is on “over” runs of 3-1-1 overall, 5-2 against the N.L. West, 5-2 after a day off and 4-1 when Pelfrey pitches on Friday, but it also carries “under” streaks of 8-3-1 at home, 10-2-1 at home against lefty starters, 6-0 in series openers, 5-2 in Pelfrey’s last seven starts overall and 6-2 in his last eight starts against the N.L. West.
Finally, the over is 9-5 in the last 14 Mets-Giants meetings going back to the start of 2008.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (19-8) at Boston (15-14)
The Yankees make their second trip of the season to Fenway Park for a three-game weekend series against the hated Red Sox, with the red-hot Phil Hughes (3-0, 1.44 ERA) scheduled to start opposite Boston ace Josh Beckett (1-0, 6.31).
New York brings a four-game winning streak to Beantown, having completed a three-game home sweep of Baltimore with Wednesday’s 7-5 victory. New York has followed up a 1-4 slump by winning seven of eight, with all seven wins being by multiple runs. In fact, all 19 of the Yankees’ victories this year – and 25 of their 27 contests overall – have been decided by at least two runs. The defending champs are on additional runs of 38-15 overall, 42-14 against divisional foes, 60-22 versus right-handed starters and 23-10 on Friday.
Boston completed a four-game sweep of the Angels with Thursday’s 11-6 victory, rallying from a 4-0 first-inning deficit. In addition to winning their last four on the heels of a three-game slide, the Red Sox are 11-5 in their last 16 games, going 8-2 at Fenway during this stretch, and they’ve also taken four of their last five series openers. On the downside, Terry Francona’s troops are in ruts of 6-16 against the A.L. East, 1-4 on Friday and 4-17 versus opponents with a winning percentage higher than .600.
These teams opened the 2010 season against each other in Boston, with the Yankees taking two of the three contests. Since losing the first eight meetings with the Red Sox last year, New York is on an 11-2 roll against their archrivals, winning four of the last six at Fenway. Still, the home team is 15-6 in the last 21 head-to-head battles.
Hughes delivered another gem on Sunday at Yankee Stadium, scattering four hits and a walk while striking out six in seven innings of a 12-3 victory. Over his last three outings, Hughes is 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA, allowing just two runs and seven hits while whiffing 18 in 20 innings, and that includes both of his road starts this year (two runs and three hits allowed in 13 innings). For his career, Hughes has actually performed better on the road (9-6, 3.76 ERA in 37 games, 17 starts) than at home (15-7, 4.04 ERA in 39 games, 15 starts).
New York is 6-2 in Hughes’ last eight starts dating to early 2009, but they’ve lost five of his last seven against N.L. East rivals. Also, he’s 0-2 with a 7.62 ERA in eight appearances (two starts) against the Red Sox, including 0-1 with a 10.29 ERA in three games (one start) at Fenway Park. In the two starts against Boston, Hughes has given up 11 runs (nine earned) in six innings, losing 8-5 on the road (2008) and 6-4 at home (2009). As a team, the Red Sox bat .302 against Hughes.
Beckett bounced back from a two-start funk in which he gave up 15 runs in 10 innings with a solid outing at Baltimore on Sunday, holding the Orioles to two runs on six hits with no walks and six strikeouts in seven innings. However, he didn’t factor in the decision as the Red Sox fell 3-2 in 10 innings. Boston has split Beckett’s last four starts, winning the two games in which he gave up 15 runs and losing two contests in which the veteran right-hander allowed just two earned runs in 14 innings.
The Red Sox are still 23-11 in Beckett’s last 34 starts overall, 15-4 in his last 19 at home, 14-6 in his last 20 against the A.L. East and 8-1 in his last nine when he starts a series. The Texas native doesn’t have a decision in three home starts this year, posting a bloated 5.79 ERA. That includes an ugly Opening Night performance against the Yankees on April 4 (five runs, eight hits, three walks in 4 2/3 innings), though his offense bailed him out and prevailed 9-7.
In fact, Boston is 8-3 in Beckett’s last 11 starts against the Yankees, including 5-2 in the last seven at home. In 18 career regular-season starts versus the Bronx Bombers, Beckett is 9-5 despite a hefty 5.51 ERA.
New York is on “over” runs of 14-5-2 on the road, 6-2-1 when starting a series, 3-1-1 against righty starters and 7-0-1 after a day off. However, the under is 3-1-1 in Hughes’ last five starts and 4-0 in his last four Friday contests.
The Sox are on “under” runs of 3-1-1 against the A.L. East, 4-1-1 versus right-handed starters and 6-1 when Beckett pitches on Friday. On the other hand, the over is 3-1-1 in Boston’s last five series openers, and behind Beckett, the “over” is on stretches of 12-5 overall, 8-2 at home, 7-2 versus A.L. East rivals and 6-1 in series openers.
Finally, the over cashed twice in the three-game Yanks-Sox series back in early April, and six of the last seven clashes at Fenway have climbed over the total. Also, the over is 7-3 in Beckett’s last 10 home starts against New York.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
DUNKEL INDEX
Phoenix at San Antonio
The Spurs look to bounce back after dropping the first two games of the series and build on their 12-3-1 ATS record in their last 16 games as a favorite. San Antonio is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-6)
Game 717-718: Cleveland at Boston (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 120.364; Boston 127.459
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 7; 189
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 1; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+1); Under
Game 719-720: Phoenix at San Antonio (9:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 120.837; San Antonio 128.670
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 8; 211
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6; 205 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-6); Over
MLB
Kansas City at Texas
The Royals look to take advantage of a Texas team that is 1-4 in C.J. Wilson's last 5 home starts. Kansas City is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+105)
Game 901-902: Atlanta at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 15.673; Philadelphia (Moyer) 15.394
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-130); 10
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+110); Over
Game 903-904: Florida at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Volstad) 15.358; Washington (Stammen) 14.948
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-125); Under
Game 905-906: St. Louis at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.355; Pittsburgh (Duke) 14.453
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-230); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-230); Over
Game 907-908: San Francisco at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Sanchez) 15.290; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.998
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-115); Over
Game 909-910: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Silva) 15.179; Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.045
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-110); Over
Game 911-912: San Diego at Houston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Latos) 14.673; Houston (Norris) 14.913
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+105); Under
Game 913-914: Milwaukee at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.349; Arizona (Jackson) 14.479
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-135); Over
Game 915-916: Colorado at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Rogers) 15.363; LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 15.021
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+150); Under
Game 917-918: Detroit at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Bonderman) 15.044; Cleveland (Huff) 15.165
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-105); Over
Game 919-920: NY Yankees at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Hughes) 16.553; Boston (Beckett) 15.547
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-105); Under
Game 921-922: Kansas City at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 16.241; Texas (Wilson) 15.006
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+105); Over
Game 923-924: Baltimore at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Millwood) 15.158; Minnesota (Liriano) 17.177
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-250); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-250); Over
Game 925-926: Toronto at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Marcum) 16.027; White Sox (Buehrle) 15.290
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-110); Under
Game 927-928: Tampa Bay at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 17.403; Oakland (Gonzalez) 14.931
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-155); Under
Game 929-930: LA Angels at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 13.420; Seattle (Hernandez) 14.983
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-140); Under
NHL
Chicago at Vancouver
The Canucks look to bounce back from their 5-2 loss in Game 3 and build on their 6-0 record in their last 6 games after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game. Vancouver is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Canucks favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-145)
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST
Game 1-2: Boston at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 12.061; Philadelphia 12.987
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-120); 5
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-120); Under
Game 3-4: Chicago at Vancouver (9:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 11.929; Vancouver 12.622
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-145); 6
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-145); Over
Marc Lawrence
Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Kansas City Royals
When Zach Greinke trades serves with C.J. Wilson in Texas tonight he will do so knowing Wilson is 1-4 at home with a 6.76 ERA in his career team starts for the Rangers. With Greinke in terrific KW form with one walk against 19 strikeouts in his last three starts, and 2-1 with an 0.89 ERA in his last three starts in this park, we'll back the staff ace as a dog to the non-ace here tonight.
Cajun Sports
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Detroit Tigers
The Detroit Tigers travel to Cleveland for a three-game weekend set versus the host Indians with the opening game Friday night and the first pitch set for 7:05PM EST. Jeremy Bonderman takes the bump for the Tigers while David Huff gets the call for the Tribe. Detroit is 5-1 their last six games when installed as a favorite in this price range. They are also 10-4 when facing left-handed starters, 4-0 in Bonderman’s last four starts as a favorite, 9-3 when he starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150 and 15-7 on the road when the total for the game is set in this range. The Indians are 8-17 versus teams from the AL Central Division and 16-35 when facing a team with a winning record. Cleveland has struggled recently in the first game of a series posting a record of 7-20 their last 27. The Indians are only 1-4 in Huff’s last five trips to the bump overall, 1-5 his last six starts as an underdog and 0-4 when he starts Game 1 of a series. Head-to-head we see that Detroit and Bonderman have the upper hand as Detroit is 17-4 the last 21 meetings versus Cleveland including 4-1 the last 5 in Cleveland while Bonderman is 6-1 his last 7 versus the Tribe and 4-1 when starting here. A check of the database reveals a league-wide system that tells us to Play AGAINST teams in this price range who average 4.2 or less runs per game and have a bullpen WHIP of 1.550 or worse on the season facing a team with a bullpen that has an ERA of 3.75 or better. Playing against these MLB teams has produced a record of 50-14 the last five seasons for 78.1 percent winners and a profit of 30.6 units. With solid technical and situational support for the visitor we will back the Cats here as they grab the first game of this weekend set in Cleveland.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Detroit Tigers 5 Cleveland Indians 2
BIG AL
Padres @ Astros
PICK: Over 9
This match-up features two pitchers who have both been up-and-down (mostly down) this year. Bud Norris will get the ball for Houston, and he's 1-3 in five starts, with a 7.25 ERA. Norris has been especially poor over his last two outings, with 12 runs given up in 9 2-3 innings (and 22 runners put on base). Mat Latos will oppose Norris, and Latos has an ERA of 5.47 this year, but it's north of 11 runs per game (11.42) on the road in two starts. Latos also has been poor over his last two starts, with nine runs given up in just 8 2-3 innings (and a staggering 19 baserunners). The Padres have gone 'over' the total in 60% of their road games vs. right-handed starters over the past two seasons, and I look for a high-scoring game tonight.
STEVE MERRIL
Padres @ Astros
PICK: Under 9
Houston has lost nine of their last ten games and they’ll look to get on the winning track as they begin a home series with the Padres on Friday night. The Astros offense has struggled mightily during that stretch as they’ve scored just 20 runs in those ten games. Tonight, Houston will get their first ever look at Padres righty Mat Latos. The numbers haven’t been pretty for Latos, but he's coming off one of his better starts of the season. Latos took the 2-1 loss against Milwaukee, but in that game, he gave up just two runs and six hits in six innings of work. The Astros are hitting just .205 over their last eight games and are averaging less than 3 runs per game this season. If Latos falters, he's backed by a bullpen with a 2.74 ERA this season.
Bud Norris gets the start for Houston. He's 1-3 with a 7.25 ERA in five outings. But four of those five games have gone Under the total as run support wasn't there from the Houston batters. San Diego has never faced Norris before which gives the pitcher the advantage for the first time through the lineup. The Padres hit .232 away from home and have gone Under the total in seven of their 12 road games. We have two pitchers that are better than their numbers show facing two lineups struggling to score runs which means we expect to see a low-scoring game tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Blue Jays vs. White Sox
Play: Under 8½
There is a 63% system that plays to the under here tonight. Systems aside though, I like the way this game shapes up to be low scoring. Both teams in tonight's situation figure to be light hitting. Toronto has been pathetic against Left handed pitching averaging less than 2 runs per game on .150 hitting, if they did not get a huge pitching performance last night they would not have beat J. Danks. Tonight they face Bueherle. In his starts against the Jays he has been real good. He has pitched 22 innings allowing just 3 earned runs. Toronto counters with S.Marcum. Marcum has a 2.21 era over his last 3 starts and a 2.16 era vs the White sox. Chicago is hitting just .230 at home so far this season and may have trouble against the hard throwing Marcum. The Blue Jays have gone under 5 of 6 times vs lefty's this year. Look for this one to go under the total.
Black Widow
1* On Tampa Bay Rays -153
We'll continue riding the best team in baseball to another victory over an AL West opponent Friday. The Tampa Bay Rays are 21-7 this season, and they have been virtually unbeatable on the road. The Rays are now 12-1 on the road this season after last night's 8-0 shutout victory over the Mariners. Tampa Bay is scoring a superb 6.9 runs/game away from home this year. Starter David Price is 3-1 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.010 WHIP in 5 starts this season, and he's living up to the hype he carried with him entering the big leagues. The Athletics are 1-7 in their last 8 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Take the Rays on the Money Line.
Jim Feist
Padres vs. Astros
Play Over 9
San Diego's offense is better than last season and on a 5-3 run over the total. They go from their pitching-friendly park to this game as they start a road trip, one that is hitter friendly. And both starting pitchers have struggled badly. Padres righty Mat Latos has a 5.47 ERA, while Houston's Bud Norris is 1-3 with a 7.25 ERA walking 17 batters in just 22 innings. In fact, he's allowed a whopping 44 base runners in 22 innings! Look for an offensive show, play the Padres/Astros Over the total.
Red Dog Sports
Giants at Mets
Play: Under 7
This game has a low total of 7 but I like the under with Sanchez facing Pelphrey. Let's look at the trends:
SF under 13-3 last 16 on the road.
NYM under 8-2 last 10 Pelphrey starts at home.
NYM under 8-3-1 last 12 at home.
Sanchez under 6-1-1 last 8 on the road.
Look for a game that only reaches 5 or 6 runs. Play under on Friday night!
EZWINNERS
Minnesota Twins -230
The Twins starting pitcher Francisco Liriano is back to being the dominate pitcher that he was prior to his Tommy John surgery. Last season Liriano was not very good and it appeared that he tried to come back to early from the surgery. This season Liriano is more than two years removed from the surgery and judging by his recent performances he is all the way back. Liriano is 4-0 with a 1.50 ERA and has struck out 36 batters in 36 inning pitched. In one career start against Baltimore he is 1-0 having pitched seven strong inning of one hit baseball. I expect another dominating performance by him today against the struggling Orioles. Baltimore sends Kevin Millwood to the mound for their struggling team and Millwood has not had any success against Minnesota in the past. In twelve career starts against the Twins, Millwood is 0-7 with an ERA of 5.90. I don't expect anything to change for these two pitchers this time around. The Orioles are only 4-11 in the last fifteen meetings between these two teams in Minnesota. Pay the price to play on the Twins or add this game to other to give yourself some value on a parlay.
JR O'Donnell
NYM (-125) vs SFG
We're spinning a gem tonight on the (15-13) New York Met's as (17-10) San Fran Giants are red hot and now a Dog at Citi field tonight.Taking a hard look at the New York Met's tonight who are a dynamite play on team and they are shooting for 8 W's in row @ home. The Met's hurlers have a remarkable 1.86 ERA and our $$$$ is on Pelfry who is 4-0 and owns a 2.40 ERA as of late.He has some tremendous stats on 5 days rest. With Giants Edgar Renteria banged up and the Met's Pelfry owing a smooth 1.77 ERA vs. those Giants Jr. 0 will back the Met's tonight
Bobby Maxwell
N.Y. Yankees at BOSTON (-110)
I'm on a FREE play run of 91-71-3 and coming with a comp winner tonight on the Red Sox as they host the rival Yankees at Fenway Park in Boston.
The two rivals opened the 2010 baseball season against each other right here at Fenway Park and now they meet again. The Yankees took two of three in that first series, but I’m banking on the Red Sox getting this one behind the pitching of Josh Beckett.
Beckett (1-0, 6.31 ERA) pitched that opening game and even though he wasn’t very sharp, the Red Sox offense pulled out the 9-7 victory. Beckett was solid in his last start on Sunday, holding the Orioles to two runs on six hits in seven innings of a 3-2 loss, striking out six and walking none. Boston has won seven of his last 10 starts against the Yankees and four of his last six at home against them.
Philip Hughes goes for the Yankees, and he hasn’t had much luck against the Red Sox, giving up 11 runs on 13 hits in just six innings of two losses to the rivals.
Boston just swept the Angels at Fenway and they are 129-63 at home over the last few seasons. With Beckett on the hill, they are on winning runs of 23-11 overall, 29-13 when he gets four days off, 20-7 when he’s a favorite, 15-4 at home, 8-1 in series openers and 14-6 against A.L. East teams.
The Red Sox are 7-4 in their last 11 games against the Yankees at Fenway Park and they’ll get it done tonight as they found their offense thanks to the Angels. Play Beckett and the Sox in this one.
2♦ BOSTON
Stephen Nover
Toronto (-110) at CHICAGO
There may not be a better one-win pitcher this season than Toronto's Shawn Marcum.
Marcum is just 1-1, but he has pitched extremely well in six starts. He has a 3.12 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and has fanned 35 while walking 11.
Chicago's Mark Buehrle hasn't pitched nearly this well. His ERA is a fat 5.30.
Buehrle has surrendered 18 earned runs and 32 hits in 22 1/3 innings during his last four starts. The White Sox are 0-4 in Buehrle's last four starts.
Toronto began this series winning nine of its last 11 road contests. The Blue Jays were averaging nearly 5 runs per game on the road.
The Blue Jays lead the American League in homers, while the White Sox were last in batting average.
I'll take the more powerful team with the better starting pitcher.
3♦ BLUE JAYS
Karl Garrett
NY Yankees (+105) at BOSTON
Here we go, Round 2 of the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry gets renewed once again at Fenway Park this weekend, and both teams come in riding 4 game winning streaks.
The Yankees were able to win 2 of 3 to start the season at Fenway, and they did get to Boston starter Josh Beckett for 5 runs in his 5 innings of work against them, and things haven't really gotten much better for Beckett as the season has progressed.
Beckett is just 1-0 through 6 starts this year, and his ERA is a sky-high 6.06 this season.
As for New York starter Phil Hughes, he has proved the move back to the starting rotation has been the right move, as Hughes is off to a 3-0 start with a 1.44 ERA along the way.
Big barometer series for Boston, as they need to show that they can take care of business against a legitimate team, and not just beat up on teams like the fading LA Angels.
I don't think they can. G-Man going with the Yankees to draw first blood this weekend with the win tonight, as they get to Beckett once again.
3♦ NY YANKEES