Brett Atkins
I'm dishing out a free winner in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference semifinal series between the Cavaliers and Celtics from Boston.
The Cavaliers were humiliated at the way they looked at home on Monday night. You’ll see them come out focused in Boston tonight and get off to a great start.
They’ve owned this rivalry with the Celtics lately, going 19-8-2 ATS in the last 29 meetings and 7-3 in the last 10 clashes in Boston. The Cavs are also on ATS surges of 18-7-1 in conference semifinal action, 18-8-1 as a playoff favorite and 8-2 as a playoff favorite of less than five points.
Don’t worry about LeBron’s elbow, he’ll bring the heat tonight in front of the Boston fans. The key is getting him some additional help and Antawn Jamison has enough playoff experience the step up tonight in hostile territory and give him the extra boost.
When Boston gets three or more days off, they are just 1-6 ATS. Those old legs get a little rusty after long breaks. Play the Cavaliers tonight as they pull this one out down the stretch.
2♦ CLEVELAND
James Patrick Sports
Tigers vs. Indians
Central Division rivals Detroit and Cleveland square off in Game #1 of their weekend series and Tigers MGR Jim Leyland hands the ball to Jeremy Bonderman. The right-hander has had success against Cleveland with a (4-1) record and (3.71) ERA against the Tribe. GM Mark Shapiro has completely ruined the Cleveland franchise and the "Days of Losing Baseball" has returned to the Shores of Lake Erie as Cleveland has dropped (40 straight and (8) of (10) and we look for that count to grow here. Big Game James Patrick's Friday Big League Baseball selection is Detroit Tigers.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
We’ll back the LA Angels here as a medium-sized underdog against King Felix Hernandez and the Mariners. We like Hernandez, but the problem for him is that he doesn’t get enough run support. Seattle has lost six games in a row, and they haven’t score more than three runs in any of those games. Add Angels starter Jared Weaver into the mix, and his 3.19 ERA, and we think the Mariners offense will let down Hernandez once again tonight. Back the Halos here.
Play on: Los Angeles Angels
Matt Fargo
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
We cashed a large ticket with the Blue Jays last night and we come back with Toronto tonight. The odds are not nearly the same but it is for a good reason as the starting pitching edge is in the Blue Jays favor tonight. With their win last night they have now won five in a row to improve to four games over .500 overall including a 10-3 record on the road which is the second best road record in all of baseball. As mentioned yesterday the Blue Jays are one of the bigger surprises in baseball this season but it is early and they likely will fade later in the season but we have to take advantage when the price is right. Last night it was a huge overlay on the White Sox and tonight it is value with the better pitcher. Shaun Marcum is still relatively unknown in the league by many but he is an extremely solid pitcher. He is just 1-1 through six starts but he has a 3.12 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with five of those six starts being quality performances. It is no fluke as last season he posted a 3.39 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 25 starts and his numbers have improved in each of his five years with the Blue Jays. In four career starts against the White Sox, Marcum is 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. He squares off against Mark Buehrle who is struggling this season. He opened the year with a seven-inning shutout against the Indians but since then has posted a 6.46 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in his last five starts. He has had great success against Toronto in recent years but that has come when he has been on top of his game which he is clearly not at now. The Blue Jays fall into a great situation as well. Play against teams with moneyline between +125 and -125 that are revenging a loss as a home favorite of -150 or more possessing a winning percentage between .380 and .460 playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 31-12 (72.1 percent) since 1997. 3* Toronto Blue Jays
MTi Sports
Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
The Snakes are 0-21 since September 14th, 2007 as a dog during the regular season when they are off a win in which they never trailed and their starter lasted more than six innings and did not allow a home run. Consider the Brewers with Gallardo.
Tom Freese
Florida Marlins at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Florida Marlins
Florida starter Chris Volstad has allowed 3 or less runs in 4 of his 5 starts this year. The Marlins are 7-2 their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Florida is 4-1 their last 5 games vs. NL East teams and they are 30-10 their last 40 games vs. the Nationals. Washington is 18-45 in game one of a series and they are 15-43 their last 58 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15. The Nationals are 0-8 with Craig Stammen on the mound with 5 days of rest. PLAY ON FLORIDA -
Lee Kostroski
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are 4-1 this season with Carlos Silva on the mound and although the veteran right-hander had disastrous results in Seattle the past two years he could be able to sustain some success back in the National League. Silva generally allows a lot of hits but he rarely walks batters and he has actually posted solid strikeout numbers so far this season. Silva has walked just six batters in 31 innings of work this season and he has pitched extremely well on the road this season with a 1.50 ERA and a 0.58 WHIP. Silva took a no-decision in a start earlier this season in Cincinnati but the Reds struggled considerably against him, managing just one run and three hits in six innings.
Cincinnati has a near .500 record but the Reds have been badly out-scored on the season, allowing 28 more runs than they have scored entering this series. Although the Reds have eight wins at home they have allowed nearly six runs per game in their own ballpark. The Cubs have scored nearly as many runs as they have allowed in road games this season despite a losing road record and Chicago has won nine of the last 13 meetings of this series.
Homer Bailey had his best start of the season last week but that outing came in St. Louis, which has been a lower scoring park so far this season. Bailey had allowed 14 runs in his previous three starts and his ERA at home is 6.61. The Cubs had seven hits and three runs in five innings against Bailey earlier this season and throughout his short career Bailey has struggled with allowing walks and home runs. The Cincinnati bullpen has had its share of adventures so far this season with a 4.76 ERA, six losses, and four blown saves. While Chicago’s season bullpen numbers are not dramatically better, the recent numbers have delivered a sharp improvement, which has not been the case for the Reds.
In the last ten games the Reds have batted just .222 against right-handed pitching while scoring just 3.1 runs per game over the last week. Chicago has been a hot offensive team after a slow start in April as the Cubs are hitting .295 in the last ten games while scoring nearly six runs per game in the last week. The Cubs project to have a big advantage in this match-up if Silva can continue to pitch well as the Reds have been getting by with a respectable record despite very limited run production. Each of the last five wins for the Reds have come by two runs or less so this is a team that is getting wins by razor thin margins and probably deserves a worse record than the standings currently reflect.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Angels/Mariners UNDER 7
With both Weaver and Hernandez coming off subpar outings, I expect both pitchers to enter tonight's contest extremely focused. That means trouble for a pair of lineups that are struggling to score runs. The Angels are averaging just 3.9 runs per game this season and the Mariners just 3.2 runs per game. The Under is an impressive 11-2-3 in Weaver's last 16 starts overall. It is also 6-0-1 in his last 7 starts vs. the American League West. The Under is 6-1-1 in Hernandez's last 8 starts after the M's score 2 runs or less in their previous game. Lastly, the Under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams and I expect this trend to continue tonight.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Texas Rangers -110
Greinke is doing all he can to win games for the Royals but they just aren't supporting him. That's why he is 0-3 (1-5 on the money line). Meanwhile, C.J. Wilson has been sizzlin' for the Rangers. They have won his last 3 starts while he has posted an ERA of just 1.37. Texas has often made good pitchers look foolish in Arlington where it is averaging 5.6 runs per game this season. In fact, Texas is 11-1 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 5.7 to 3.4. Despite the caliber of pitcher Greinke is, we can't ignore the fact that the Royals are just 11-28 in his last 39 road starts vs. a team with a winning record because they just don't support him. Plus, Texas loves the righties, as evidenced by the fact that it is 8-3 in its last 11 home games vs. a right-handed starter and the Royals have only won 2 of Greinke's last 8 starts against Texas. Take Texas.
Roz Juarbe
Suns at Spurs
This is a must win for the home team, down 0-2, but Phoenix matches up well. The Suns beat the taller Spurs on the boards badly in Game 2 and are now 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS against San Antonio this season. Phoenix has been the West's best since late January, going 34-9. Play the Suns Game 3.
SPORTS WAGERS
CINCINNATI -1.04 over Chicago
This is a case of one pitcher with great numbers that shouldn’t be believed against another with awful numbers. However, Homer Bailey has way more potential than Carlos Silva and Bailey is showing signs of coming on. Silva has an ERA of 2.90 and a BAA of .219 but that all hinges on how much you believe of that. This is a guy that has never had stats like that in his eight-year career and you can be assured that a few disastrous starts are forthcoming. In close to 1200 career innings, Silva’s career ERA is 4.67 and his career BAA is .302. This year Silva has an unsustainable 76% strand rate and his GB/FB ratio is an awful one in favor of the fly-ball. His last start is a better indication of what to expect, as he got rocked in Arizona, which is a hitter’s park similar to the one he’ll pitch in here. Furthermore, the Cubbies are playing awful ball right now and were just swept in Pittsburgh, where they scored a miserable five runs in three games against Paul Maholm, Charlie Morton, Brian Burres and the Pirates pen. Bailey, meanwhile has good stuff, very good in fact but he throws too many pitches and walks too many people. However, he has shown much improvement over his last two starts and if he can avoid walking batters here, he has a great chance for success. Bailey is coming off two good starts and that includes one in St. Louis, where he held the Cards to two earned runs in 6.2 innings of work. The Reds have won seven of 10 and even if Bailey gets lit up, Cinci still have a good chance of winning. A more likely scenario is that Silva gets lit up while the Cubbies continue to stink it up at the plate. Play: Cincinnati -1.04 (Risking 2 units).
San Francisco +1.07 over NY METS
Mile Pelfrey is another one of those pitchers that has great stats this season but in no way is he going to enjoy continued success. His command is average at best and an alarming 70% of his pitches are fastballs and that’s going to catch up to him for sure. Pelfrey has been very lucky with an 82% strand rate, which is unsustainable. His BPV** is 29 (see just under all these write-ups for a glossary of terms used), which is a truer indication of what is forthcoming. It’s also worth noting that the Mets team batting average has dropped to .236 and is .212 over its last five games. Jonathan Sanchez is striking out batters at will. He’s always had nasty stuff and it could all come together this year. His career BAA is .241 but this year it’s down to .170. He’s whiffed 37 batters in 29 frames and has yet to give up a single jack all season. In three of his five starts he did not give up a single run and that includes a five-inning stint in Colorado. Sanchez has had one poor outing and it came in Philadelphia. Pelfrey and the Mets favored over Sanchez and the very warm Giants is completely incorrect. Play: San Francisco +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +1.09 over TEXAS (1st 5 innings)
There are so many things to like about Zack Greinke and the Royals here but let’s start by saying this is a much better play in the first five frames due to the Royals toxic bullpen. Greinke has overcome a couple of shaky outings to get on a roll lately, with a 1.23 ERA over his last three starts. Pitching in hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark hasn't been an issue for Greinke during his recent run of success. In fact, since 2007, he has a 0.82 ERA and 0 walks in 22 innings pitched there. He also has one of the best BPV’s in the majors, which is now at 129. Greinke’s last three PQS** (see under write-ups for an explanation of PQS) scores have all been 5. The guy is one of the best in the league and some justice is forthcoming, as he has yet to win a game this season, which is why W/L records is the most misleading stat in all of baseball. The Royals are hitting .296 against lefties and will see one here in C. J. Wilson. Wilson is throwing great but we’ve seen a progressive reduction in his strikeouts over the past four games. That’s a sign that the players are starting to adjust to him and it’s also worth noting that he has an unsustainable 85% strand rate thus far. No doubt Wilson has been pitching great but he’s also been fortunate and his numbers will begin to correct itself over the next few games. Greinke plus a tag in five innings is always a strong play. Play: Kansas City +1.09 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
Detroit –1.05 over CLEVELAND
This really is a rather cheap lay on the Tigers and the reason for that is they’ve dropped three in a row and Jeremy Bonderman has an ERA of 5.74. So, let’s talk about that. If you take away one awful start in Seattle, Bonderman’s ERA would be 3.57. He has great command, as his nine walks in five starts will attest to. He dominated the Indians in the first game of the year in which he allowed just one hit in five innings. Bonderman is certainly not a reliable pitcher but he’s surely more reliable than David Huff. Huff has a BPV of –11, that’s right minus 11. He’s walked 12 batters while striking out just 13. The Indians are 1-4 when he starts and his confidence has to be shaken after allowing 22 hits over his last 10 innings. He has an extraordinarily high 48% flyball rate and that explains the seven jacks he’s surrendered in just 31 innings this year. Nothing is good about David Huff and if you wager on him chances are high you’ll be ripping up the ticket. Play: Detroit –1.05 (Risking 2 units).
Boston +1.11 over PHILADELPHIA
The bottom line is that the Flyers have no answers against the Bruins. Boston comes in with a ton of confidence, a great goaltender, balanced scoring and a great opportunity to put this team away. The Bruins are rolling out four good lines and each line is not only playing strong defensively, but they’re all creating scoring chances as well. Yeah, they lost David Krejci but so what. The Flyers are without way more key players and let’s not forget they slipped into the playoffs on the final day of the regular season. They played an uninspired Devils squad in the first round and now the Flyers look like a mentally beaten team. The building was not even sold out in the last game and the fans had zero impact on the game. Everything is working for the Bruins right now. They gave up their first two power play goals of these playoffs in Game 1 against the Flyers but were 4-for-4 on the kill for the second straight game Wednesday night and are now 30-for-32 in the playoffs. Their power play clicked for the 11th time in the playoffs in Game three and surely they have to be smelling a kill here. Play: Boston +1.11 (Risking 2 units).
VANCOUVER -½ +1.19 over Chicago
There's no denying the fact that despite losing game three, the score is in no way indicative of how the game played out. Roberto Luongo was shaky again and that’s a bit of a concern but the Canucks dominated play for long stretches and could have easily been up 3-0 or 4-0. That’s not to take anything away from Chicago, as they capitalized on its chances but they have not been the better team in terms of puck possession in the opponents end. Vancouver was creating a ton of scoring chances and tonight they’ll likely continue to do that. Antti Niemi was great last game but again, this guy is hit and miss and could just as easily allow five goals instead of one or two. So, while I hate to spot the Blackhawks anything, the fact remains that Vancouver is too good and they’ve played too strong a series thus far to lose three in a row. It could happen but from what we’ve seen thus far, the Canucks are a serious threat to tie this series up and could go on to win it. This is the Canucks season so expect a strong pushback from them. Play: Vancouver -½ +1.19 (Risking 2 units).
Stan Lisowski
Phoenix / San Antonio Under
Sun road playoff games have all gone under, as have all of the Spurs home games in post-season play so far. Not one of those 6 aforementioned affairs have totaled higher than 197 points.
Larry Ness
CWS (-115) vs TOR
There must be something in the 'water' in the AL East. The Blue Jays enter Friday's play with MLB's longest active winning streak (five straight), while fellow AL teams the Rays, Red Sox and Yanks have all won four in a row. Toronto is also surprising everyone by opening the 2010 season 10-3 on the road. Shaun Marcum gets the start for the Jays and is 1-1 (3.12 ERA) in six starts but the team is just 2-4. Marcum came into his own in 2007 (his third season), going 12-6 with a 4.13 ERA in 38 appearances (25 starts, in which the team was 15-10). Marcum got off to a good start in 2008, going 5-4 with a 2.65 ERA plus 86 strikeouts in 98.2 innings but an injury followed by a handful of weak starts sent him to Triple-A in August. He was back in the starting rotation by September but after an abbreviated start in the middle of the month which he left with elbow pain, it was determined and he would need Tommy John surgery and would miss the rest of the 2008 season (and likely all of 2009). That was EXACTLY the case. However, Marcum looked healthy this spring and in late March, was named Toronto's Opening Day starter for the 2010 season, succeeding Roy Halladay who had seven consecutive Opening Day starts from 2003 to 2009. Marcum then went out and took a no-hitter into the 7th inning at Texas on April 5, although the Jays would lose that game, 5-4. He's been solid in 2010 but as noted, the Jays hare just 2-4 in his sis starts (team is 15-9 in all other games). Mark Buehrle gets the nod for the 12-17 White Sox. Buehrle pitched three-hit ball over seven innings as the White Sox opened the 2010 season with a 6-0 victory over the Indians. He was starting his club-record eighth season-opener and looked more like the four-time All-Star pitcher he has been since joining the rotation back in 2001, than the guy who won just twice after his perfect game against Tampa Bay on July 23 in 2009. He won his second start of 2010 as well but has since gone 0-4, allowing 32 hits and 18 ERs over 21.1 innings (7.59 ERA). Let me just "cut to the chase." Buehrle's won 10 or more games in EACH of his last nine seasons. Let's do the math on his career. He's 137-101 with a 3.83 ERA. While the White Sox are a modest 68-76 (.472) in his road starts, they are a dominating 107-56 (.656) in his home starts and I'm going to back Buehrle in this one.
Nelly
San Francisco + over New York
Mike Pelfrey made three straight scoreless starts in April but the Phillies hammered him the last time out as he was tagged for eight hits and six runs in four innings. Pelfrey still has great overall numbers for the season but he is unlikely to duplicate the incredible first month. Pelfrey also had shoulder stiffness in his last start and had an MRI as a precaution, so something may be amiss with his arm. Jonathan Sanchez has been just as dominant for the Giants this season, posting 37 strikeouts in 29 innings of work. Sanchez has a 1.29 road ERA and he deserves much better than his current 2-2 record. The knock on Sanchez is that he rarely goes deep into games as his pitch counts are generally high as a strikeout pitcher but the Giants feature an outstanding bullpen. The Mets have lost four of the last five games and this team appears to be settling after a nice win streak put them on top of the division standings for a moment. For the season the Giants have hit .275 while the Mets are scoring just 3.4 runs per game against left-handed starters. New York has been a solid home team but the schedule has played a role and the Giants have proven more than capable on the road. San Francisco should have an edge in this pitching match-up and the great 4-1 record for Pelfrey should keep a superior Giants team as an underdog.
Tom Stryker
MILWAUKEE (-) over Arizona
Even though this will be Milwaukee's eight straight road game, it's going to be hard for me to pass up the Brewers at this price with Gallardo on the mound.
Since getting rocked at home against St. Louis back on April 10th, Yovani has turned in four quality starts. Facing the Nationals, Pirates (twice) and Padres, No. 49 has been touched for only three earned runs and 20 hits in 24.0 innings of work. That breaks down to a solid 3-0 record and a sensational 1.13 ERA! In the first game of a series and with Gallardo on the mound, Milwaukee has walked away with wins in seven of its last 10 games.
Countering for Arizona will be right-hander Edwin Jackson. Back on April 16th, Jackson tossed a gem for the Diamondbacks limiting San Diego to no earned runs and three hits in 6.0 frames. Unfortunately, in his last three starts against the Cubs, Rockies and Cardinals, No. 36 has been slammed for 22 earned runs and 29 hits in only 14.1 innings. That adds up to a miserable 0-2 record and a ridiculous 13.81 ERA!
The trends aren't in favor of Arizona here either. The Diamondbacks have slipped in 20 of their last 28 priced as a home underdog and 17 of their last 23 coming off a straight up win.
The pitching matchup in this contest obviously favors the road team. With the Brew Crew off the loss at LA and the Diamondbacks off the win at Houston, we have the ideal set here too. Take Milwaukee with listed pitcher Gallardo.