Offshore Insiders
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics
Boston coasted to a 104-86 victory in Game 2, easily covering the spread. The Celtics improved to 6-4 against the spread in their past 10 games, although they’ve gone an underwhelming 2-2 in their last four outings. The series now shifts to Boston, which should give NBA betting fans an edge. Although the Celtics are just 4-6 against the spread in their last 10 games at TD Garden, they’ve covered three straight home games on NBA odds.
Cleveland’s struggles on NBA odds continued with Monday’s loss to Boston. Despite going 5-2 in their last seven games, the Cavaliers are just 3-4 in that span against NBA betting lines. Sports betting fans shouldn’t expect a sudden reversal of fortunes when Cleveland hits the road, either—the team is 4-6 ATS in its last 10 road games.
The Celtics look like a re-energized team in the postseason, and they’re going to give Cleveland a brutal dogfight. The crowd should carry them in this one.
Pick: Boston
Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs
With each passing game, Phoenix looks like a better bet to make it to the NBA Finals. Phoenix topped the Spurs 110-102 in Game 2 of this series. The Suns are enjoying a fantastic tear, going 8-2 both straight up and against the spread in their past 10 games, including four straight wins at the sportsbook. Having the series move to San Antonio shouldn’t be too much of a concern, either, as Phoenix is 3-1 against the spread in its last four road games.
The Spurs are reeling after falling into a 2-0 hole in this NBA Playoffs series. The defeat continued some struggles on NBA betting lines, as San Antonio is just 4-5-1 in its last 10 games against the spread. Home-court will be a sight for sore eyes for these weary Spurs—they’re 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games in San Antonio.
The Suns have been a good road team all year, and they look especially sharp in the playoffs. The winning will continue Friday.
Pick: Phoenix
Dan Bebe
NYY (-110) vs BOS
I went back and forth on this game for quite some time, but I just can't pass up the chance to back the Yanks at such a solid price, especially since they've been on a very strong run, and playing exceptional baseball against their rival Sox since, basically, the middle of the 2009 season.
Honestly, I just don't like how the Sox are winning games. They seem to strongly resemble the Yankees teams of the middle of this last decade that just tried to out-slug opponents, but couldn't really come through in the "big" games.
The Red Sox were supposed to be shoring up their defense, but instead, this team isn't pitching, the bullpen is underachieving, and the offense is carrying the load.
That might work against the always-afraid-of-Fenway Angels, but the Yanks don't mind this trip. Phil Hughes looks MORE than comfortable in his new role as a starting pitcher, and Josh Beckett is off to his usual slow start.
There's certainly a chance that Beckett pitches a decent game tonight, but the Yankees will find a way to score either way. My one concern, and I admit, it's something, is the health of the back of the Yanks' pen. The Red Sox aren't going to give up half-way through this game, so I'd love nothing more than a multi-run lead heading into the final couple frames.
Still, despite that, I trust the Yankees pen more than the Red Sox pen right now, and I don't foresee either starting pitcher going all that deep.
Play on the Yankees to nab game one of this epic showdown in Boston!
KAN (+105) vs TEX
This is absolutely the best price we're going to get on Zack Greinke in a hugely winnable game. Will Zack get his first win of the season tonight? I think the odds are pretty good.
And considering the ace has been throwing the ball exceedingly well after a brief period where it seemed like the lack of run support was upsetting him, this could be that game where Greinke breaks through.
In addition, there are a handful of Royals that have solid career numbers against the Rangers, which makes me think Kansas City actually scores to back their top starter this time around.
I know the opposing starter has some devastatingly good numbers thus far this year, but that's a big, big reason why this game is such a nice value. C.J. Wilson is going to be a decent starter, but that ERA in the 1's isn't going to hold up. That's just how baseball works. I'm not saying he's going to have a month with an ERA in the 6's, but Wilson will regress to the mean, and if that means a few starts where he gives up 3-4 runs, so be it.
I believe the Royals get to Wilson for a few runs, and we already saw last night that the Rangers pen isn't any more reliable than the Royals', which means we're not throwing away the late innings like we might be in most plays on KC.
Baseball, like most sports, is all about finding the value, and I think the Royals are playing with some confidence, they're swinging the lumber, and you know they want to get Greinke in the "W" column. Hell, a pitcher with an ERA in the low 2's, the lowest of any qualifying starter should have one win by mid-May, right? Let's make it happen.
Play on the Royals at a very slight dog price!
Sac Lawson
CHC (+117) vs CIN
I know this line movement is just shocking to the point where it's going to be tough for people to stay off of Cincinnati. But we've got three factors that I love, which all point to the Cubs.
First, Cincinnati plays in a hitters park, no denying that. In a park where balls fly out with ease, what kinda pitcher do you want on your side? A groundball pitcher. No doubt about it. And that's exactly what we'll get from Carlos Silva. He's a groundball guy through n through. And on top of it, he's been very very successful this season.
Second, Starlin Castro is in the lineup for the Cubs today. He's definitely the biggest prospect in the Cubs organization, and time and time again we've seen call-ups like this really boost a club. Think about Ike Davis and what he did to the Mets. They call him up and the Mets rattle off 6 or 7 straight. Point being, it gives an energy to the clubhouse, and coming off a sweep in Pittsburgh, that's exactly what Chicago needs.
Third, Homer Bailey... He was a huge huge prospect at a very young age. And quite frankly has not produced. We can count on him to get his pitch count high and give up a few runs... we should see plenty of that cinci pen, and that's always good!
I like our pitching edge, and I think Castro gives the Cubs a boost offensively. At an underdog price.. it's worth a 1 unit play.
John Ryan
St Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5
5* graded RUN LINE play on the Pirates as they take on the Cardinals set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Pirates will lose this game by fewer than 1 runs. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 36-8 making 27.1 units for 82% winners since 2004. Play on home dogs against a 1.5 run line after 4 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base and with a cold starting pitcher sporting an ERA >= 7.50 over his last 3 starts. Pirates are 11-2 against the run line (+9.8 Units) in home games versus a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better over the last 2 seasons. Take the Pirates on the run line.
Craig Trapp
Suns vs. Spurs
Play: Over 205.5
These two teams have been running up and down the first two games and neither have been able to stop the other. PHO on the road really has trouble stopping teams and tonight will be no different. PHO does score well on the road so they will keep it close until late. SA will play desperate tonight and get a ton of FT's as they really take it strong to the rim. This one has over on it, and we are going to take advantage of it.
Teddy Covers
Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago White Sox
PICK: Chicago White Sox
To say that Toronto has struggled against left handed pitching is something of an understatement. The Blue Jays are hitting just .193 as a team against southpaws. My clients and I cashed an Under as Cito Gaston’s squad got shut out in Tampa against David Price last weekend; their fourth consecutive game against a southpaw starter in which they were held to a single earned run or less. We cashed when the Jays were one hit by Red Sox lefty Jon Lester in an eleven strikeout shutout following the loss to Price and the Rays. And it was most assuredly a sin of omission not to bet against the Blue Jays this past weekend – even struggling, mediocre lefties like Oakland’s Gio Gonzalez are having success shutting Toronto down.
Gonzalez held Toronto to three hits in 6.2 innings of work, another Blue Jays loss against an opposing southpaw. We’re getting a very reasonable price to bet against the Jays as they face another lefty tonight, when Mark Buehrle takes the hill for the White Sox. Buehrle got lit up by the Yankees in his last start; his fifth consecutive non-quality start since a dominant showing on opening day. But Buehrle’s track record against the Blue Jays is nothing short of stellar, allowing just three earned runs in 21.1 innings of work in his last three starts against Toronto. Expect more offensive struggles from the Blue Jays tonight. 2* Take Chicago.
Ben Burns
Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago White Sox
PICK: Chicago White Sox
The Jays are rolling and they earned a 2-0 shutout victory in yesterday's series opener. While they beat a left-hander in that game, they're still just 2-5 vs. southpaw starters. They're averaging only 1.7 runs in those games, while hitting a mere .173. Looking back further and we find them at a money-burning 44-56 (-16.8) their last 100 games vs. left-handed starters.
While the Jays have had success against the White Sox overall, one southpaw which has always given them trouble is Mark Buehrle. Indeed, the Jays are just 3-9 in 12 games against the veteran Chicago ace. Buehrle has allowed two earned runs or less in eight straight starts against them. He's gone a minimum of six innings in all 12 career starts against the Jays, recording a stellar 2.78 ERA and a WHIP of 1.134. That includes an outstanding 1.53 ERA while winning each of his last four home starts vs. the Jays. In fact, the Sox are a perfect 7-0 in his seven home starts against Toronto.
With all due respect to Marcum, who has been pitching well and who has also enjoyed success vs. the Chisox, the price on the home team seems very fair. Consider Chicago
Jack Jones
Chicago White Sox -110
The Chicago White Sox haven't been able to string together wins lately, but they haven't been stringing together losses, either. Chicago is 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss and with Ace Mark Buehrle on the mound tonight I expect them to rebound against the Blue Jays. Buehrle has enjoyed much success against Toronto in his career, going 9-3 against the money line in 12 starts while posting a 2.78 ERA. The White Sox are 7-0 in Buehrle's last 7 home starts vs. Blue Jays.
This play also falls under a system that is 77-29 (73%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road teams (TORONTO) - AL team with a low on-base percentage (<=.320) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP <=1.350), with a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start. Buehrle is also 15-3 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. Buehrle is 21-4 against the money line in home starts in May games since 1997. Take the White Sox.
Info Plays
3* on Atlanta Braves +116
Reasons the Braves win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (PHILADELPHIA) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season (NL), after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs. This is a 37-10 ML System hitting 78.7% over the last 5 seasons.
2.) The Phillies are in line for a letdown here after taking 3 of 4 from the St. Louis Cardinals last series. Jamie Moyer goes for the Phillies with his 5.70 ERA in 5 starts this season, and his 7.50 ERA in 2 home starts this year. Derek Lowe does not mind facing the Phillies, going 6-3 with a 2.84 ERA in 13 lifetime starts vs. Philly. He should get help from a rested bullpen tonight as well. Atlanta is 16-3 against the money line with a rested bullpen that pitched one inning or less last game over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Braves on the road.