Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, April 1

MLB

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh
The Pirates look to build on their 6-1 record in A.J. Burnett's last 7 home starts. Pittsburgh is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-125)

Game 901-902: Miami at Washington (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Nolasco) 13.792; Washington (Strasburg) 16.613
Dunkel Line: Washington by 3; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-260); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-260); Under

Game 903-904: San Diego at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Volquez) 15.190; NY Mets (Nieve) 14.607
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+130); Over

Game 905-906: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Samardzija) 12.672; Pittsburgh (Burnett) 15.760
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-125); Under

Game 907-908: Colorado at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chacin) 14.797; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.486
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+130); Over

Game 909-910: San Francisco at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 18.207; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 16.789
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-155); 6
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+135); Over

Game 911-912: Philadelphia at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 14.974; Atlanta (Hudson) 17.003
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2; 6
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-120); Under

Game 913-914: St. Louis at Arizona (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 17.073; Arizona (Kennedy) 15.182
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-105); Over

Game 915-916: Boston at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 13.527; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.995
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 3 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-130); Under

Game 917-918: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Shields) 14.765; White Sox (Sale) 14.317
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+120); Over

Game 919-920: Detroit at Minnesota (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 17.443; Minnesota (Worley) 14.857
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-200); Under

Game 921-922: Seattle at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 16.092; Oakland (Anderson) 15.634
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-120); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+100); Over

Game 923-924: LA Angels at Cincinnati (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 14.527; Cincinnati (Cueto) 16.766
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-110); Under

Bryan LeonardFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago vs. PittsburghFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 7½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It'll be a miserable day for Opening Day in Pittsburgh, with temperatures in the low 40s and the threat of showers. With snow and colder temps in the forecast for Tuesday, every attempt will be made to play Monday's Opener. It'll be a bad day for hitters, both because of the conditions and because of the starting pitchers. Jeff Samardzija takes the mound for the Cubs on the heels of a very impressive 2012. Samardzija posted a 3.21 K/BB ratio and in a favorable pitchers' park on a day with cold conditions, putting the ball in play won't be easy. Not allowing free baserunners will be big for Samardzija.
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Similarly, AJ Burnett starts the opener for the Pirates. Burnett posted a 2.9 K/BB ratio last season. Taking advantage of PNC Park's hurler-friendly conditions, Burnett posted a 3.10 ERA at home. Burnett has discussed possible retirement after the 2013 season, so it could be his final Opening Day start, so he'll want to give a good performance right out of the gate.
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These were two of the worst offensive teams in the league last season, as the Pirates averaged 4.28 runs per game and the Cubs just 3.78. Add in bad hitting conditions and two pitchers that don't issue many walks and runs should be at a premium.

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Charlotte Bobcats vs. Milwaukee BucksFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Milwaukee BucksFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bobcats are 1-18 ATS with at most one day of rest after a road loss in which they scored less than 11% of their points from the three-point line.The Bobcats are 1-4ATS on the road off a loss in which they led by 10+ points. This game also fits a system where road dogs with 1 day of rest at +5 or more are 1-12 straight up and 3-10 to the spread if they scored 90 or more as a road dog of 10 or more and are taking on an opponent that scored 90 or more as a home dog, provided the total here is 200 or higher.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle at OaklandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Many bettors are reluctant to play Unders on games where the line is less than 7. Maybe it's that nagging fear that any one bad inning can kill the bet. That's true enough, but the fact remains that bypassing games where the numbers simply scream pitching duel is not a particularly good idea. Tonight's clash between the Mariners and A's is a good example. Yes, it's a low total. But Felix Hernandez and Brett Anderson figure to be very tough here. King Felix has lost a tick or two in velocity but his location is so good it doesn't really matter. He has owned the likely lineup he will face here. They're a collective 29/130 against Hernandez, with nary a long ball. As for Anderson, the projected Seattle starters are an okay 20/73, but with just one long ball. Plus, Anderson's numbers at home last season were flat out ridiculous. As a rule, I like to know the umps before delving into totals, but even the tight zone guys usually give respect to aces, so I'm not all that worries about it here. Both pens should be above average, so no big worry about the last couple innings, assuming that's when they get involved. The right price here off the metrics I focus on the most is 5.5. So no problem going Under the 6.5 between the Mariners and A's.

Jim Feist

Detroit Pistons at Toronto Raptors
Pick: Toronto Raptors

Two teams just looking forward to the end of the season matchup here on Monday as Detroit travels to Orlando. Both of these clubs had to play on Sunday. The Pistons lost at Chicago, while the Raptors lost at Washington. Surprisingly, the Raptors play well with no rest, covering 14 of their last 20 games in this spot. Moreover, the Raptors do well against bad teams, posting a 17-6 ATS mark the last 23 games against a team with a winning percentage below .400. The Raptors have covered the last four in this series. Two bad teams, but one has to cover and that edge goes to the home club. The Raptors hold edges in scoring while Detroit is the better defensive team. We'll take the Raptors who have shown they can cover against bad clubs and at home against the Pistons.

Don Best ConsensusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta HawksFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Atlanta HawksFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games. Hawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Central. Favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Cavaliers are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Play The Hawks

Wunderdog

Boston at New York Yankees
Pick: New York Yankees -110

Nothing like opening day in baseball, especially at the Stadium with the Red Sox in town. Boston was a train wreck last season and dumped a lot of salary and the core of their team. With Yankee killer David Ortiz on the sidelines, the Sox are going to be at a disadvantage. The Yankees have CC on the hill and Mariano back at the end of the pen. Despite a lot of injuries, pitching will be the difference her and Jon lester has a lot of questions to be answered. The Sox last 100 vs. the AL East shows they are falling behind at 33-67. The Red Sox are 19-45 the past two seasons as an underdog and 26-46 inside the division. Over the past three seasons, the Yankees are 78-36 in day games. Play on New York.

SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston -102 over N.Y. YANKEESFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Yankees over/under win total for the year is 86. If you make one wager in that department this season it should be for the Yankees to go under, as there is about a 5% chance of New York winning 87 games. In fact, we’re suggesting the Yanks finish last in the AL East. The Yanks said farewell to Rafael Soriano, Nick Swisher and Russell Martin, who all left via free agency, and in their stead added a geriatric brigade of Ichiro Suzuki, Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay and Travis Hafner, giving the Yankees the oldest 40-man roster in baseball. The Yanks also enter the season facing extended stays on the disabled list for Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Curtis Granderson and Derek Jeter. For today’s opener, the Yanks will send out the ever reliable C.C. Sabathia but Sabathia showed signs of trouble at the end of last season and ended up having off-season shoulder surgery. This spring, Sabathia threw just 10.2 innings and allowed 14 hits and six runs for a spring ERA of 5.06. Sabathia hit the DL twice last year (groin, elbow), he’s averaged 240 IP for five seasons and his durability is now trending the wrong way. The guy has tremendous skills but he’s unlikely to be sharp on a cold day in New York with just 10 spring innings and coming off shoulder surgery.
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Jon Lester is coming off a poor season. Lester also has a disturbing three-year trend of increased HR’s allowed. However, you can’t count this guy out, as his skills are too good to ignore and there could have been some mechanical problems that he’s corrected. Lester noted that he has refined his mechanics to stand taller on the mound, revealing that he started making an effort to correct his posture late last summer. 'I was pitching like a guy who was 5-foot-10 as opposed to 6-foot-4,' Lester said. 'It makes a big difference on the way the ball comes in the zone. Pitching with a greater downward plane, Lester is coming off a brilliant spring in which he threw 24 frames and allowed eight hits and two runs for an ERA of 0.75 while striking out 20 batters and walking just four. Primed to bounce back, Lester’s xERA says correction of strand rate and hr/f will improve results and his groundball rate remains an asset, He’s still a workhorse that could have a big year. Coming off a lousy season, the Red Sox lost their identity a year ago but they made some nice off-season moves that include the acquisition of some scrappy, hard-working vets like Shane Victorino, Jonny Gomes, Stephen Drew and Mike Napoli. There's a lot to like about this team and there's no way the Red Sox are going to have as bad a year as they did in 2012. It all starts here on opening day.
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Chicago +110 over PITTSBURGHFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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A.J. Burnett gets the opening day start for the Pirates after surprising everyone with 16 wins and a 3.51 ERA last year. At age 36 and expectations higher, expect regression. Burnett has traditionally been a slow starter and he had a brutal spring, going 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in just 11 innings pitched. The Pirates picked up Yankee castoff Russell Martin and the Martin/Burnett battery didn’t fare so well in New York in 2011. The Pirates have some nice pieces in place but their offense could be somewhat unproductive and they’ll face one of the more exciting young pitchers in the game in Jeff Samardzija.
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Samardzija developed into a legit rotation anchor after the All-Star Break in 2012. From July to the end of the year, Samardzija skills were electric. An outstanding strikeout rate, a ground-ball bias profile, much fewer walks, and an average fastball velocity of 95 mph assures us that this guy is on the rise. He is now throwing four different pitches at least 10% of the time, 95 mph fastball (54%), 85 mph slider (14%), 92 mph cutter (11%), 86 mph splitter (19%). With overpowering raw stuff and a varied arsenal, Samardzija's growth this season will be the real deal. He’s undervalued right now but that’s not going to last long and now is the time to capitalize.
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Kansas City +125 over CHICAGOFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The White Sox were one of last year’s biggest surprises. With expectations low, Chicago was in first place for 117 days last summer before a meltdown in the final two weeks of the season. We’re not so sure they’ll have as much success this season. To begin, they are without A.J. Pierzynski for the first time in years, leaving the catching duties to Tyler Flowers. Flowers has just 273 major-league AB’s and is a career .205 hitter. The South Side will miss Pierzynski’s bat, his leadership and his presence in the dugout. Offensively, the club is still veteran heavy led by Paul Konerko, Alex Rios and bust slugger Adam Dunn. Dunn is the biggest rally killer and stiff in the majors. Chris Sale is a true ace. He went 17-8 with a 3.05 ERA and made the All-Star Game in his first season as a starter but was just 6-6 after the break with a 4.32 ERA. Make no mistake, the kid has nasty stuff and is even a potential Cy Young award winner but we can’t get excited about Chicago’s position players and Sale may not get the run support he needs to win games when facing strong starters like James Shields.
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In an attempt to bolster their starting rotation, the Royals traded away a big part of their future in exchange for Shields and Wade Davis (RHP, KC). Shields, who has averaged more than 220 innings over the past six seasons, adds some stability to a rotation full of question marks. He is coming off of a season in which he recorded a career best strikeout rate and 52% ground ball rate, while maintaining his typical pinpoint control. While his defense and home park won't be quite as accommodating, moving out of the American League East should provide a counterbalance. Expect more stellar work from Shields in 2013. Behind the plate, the Royals have a potential superstar in Salvador Perez. Perez only played in 76 games following knee surgery to start the year but still batted .301 with 11 home runs. Despite catching just 74 games, Perez executed a major league-best five pickoffs, two more than anyone else. He now has eight pickoffs, which is already a career record for a Royals catcher. We’re counting on the Royals to keep this close and perhaps even have the lead when the starters exit. With a take-back of +129 and with the better offense, the Royals, a team that could contend for a wild-card spot this season, offers up some nice value here.
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St. Louis +101 over ARIZONAFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cardinals may have been the least busy team in the off-season in the majors and who can blame them? St. Louis will essentially go with the same solid roster as last year and they should contend once again. The Cards are deep and have one of the best farm systems in baseball. St. Louis received huge offensive seasons from Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran, David Freese, Allen Craig, and Yadier Molina and there’s nothing suggesting that group won’t produce again. Enter Adam Wainwright for today’s opener. Wainwright’s ERA says he took a half-season to shake off Tommy John surgery rust but skills say he was sharp all year. Wainwright’s strand rate and first half hr/f did in his ERA last year but everything else screamed "elite." His strikeout rate, control and groundball rates were all at elite levels. At 31, Wainwright is still getting better as he remains one of the best and most reliable starters in the game. As a dog, pitching for this team, Wainwright and the Cardinals offer up nothing but value.
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By contrast, the D-Backs had a complete overhaul in the offseason. Gone from the Snakes are OF Justin Upton, OF Chris Young, C Henry Blanco and pitchers, Matt Albers, Takashi Saito, Bryan Shaw and Trevor Bauer. Joining the D-Backs, 3B/1B Eric Chavez, 3B Martin Prado, 1B/OF Eric Hinske, OF Cody Ross, OF Gerardo Parra and pitchers, Heath Bell (stiff) Brandon McCarthy and Tony Sipp. Did they get better? We think not. After posting an ERA over 4 last year, Ian Kennedy is expected to do better this season. We can’t argue with that, as Kennedy’s skills showed no erosion from previous years but his luck was much worse. Still, he’s not on the same level as Adam Wainwright. Kennedy has a fly-ball bias profile (42% fly-ball rate, 38% ground-ball rate) and at this park, that poses a problem. Kennedy also had a shaky spring with a 0-2 record in 17.1 innings with an ERA of 4.67. The D-Backs may need some time to gel and to evaluate exactly where they are. The Cardinals know exactly what they have, that being a solid line-up with few flaws and an ace starting the opener. Wrong side favored.

Ben BurnsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia vs. AtlantaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I spent the last six weeks in Florida, much of that time spent @ a place on Indian Shores Beach.
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For those unfamiliar with the area, that's very close to Clearwater, the spring training home of the Phillies. (Its also very close to Dunedin, home of the Jays & within driving distance of several other spring training venues.)
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While I certainly haven't been "vacationing," I did find the time to take in several ball games ...
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Not only do I enjoy watching spring training games, I find that it helps me get a good feel for the season, allowing me to (hopefully) hit the ground running.
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Hamels was one of the stars of the spring training. Indeed, he led the NL with a dominating 0.95 ERA. He had 15 Ks vs. four walks and finished with a stellar 0.79 WHIP.
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Hudson wasn't as dominant as Hamels. However, he still finished with a respectable 3.90 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He was also at his best his last couple of outings.
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In his last "tune-up" start, despite less than ideal conditions, he allowed one earned run through four innings.
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He was quoted as saying: "Conditions weren’t ideal, but April is probably going to be a lot like that at the places we’re going to be playing in. I've got a few things I want to iron out, small things in my delivery. But for the most part, I feel like everything's in line to be where I want to be for the start of the season."
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He continued by saying: "Today could have gone better. On a day like today, the pitcher’s probably the least comfortable guy on the field. So to just give up one run against that lineup, I’m OK with it…. That one inning I had those back-to-back walks. Other than that I was OK with it."
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In his previous spring start, Hudson pitched six shutout innings against the Nationals.
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While the Braves and Phillies both boast very capable lineups, don't be surprised to see them start things off with a "pitchers' duel." Assuming the line stays at 7 (no play at 6.5) take a look at the Under.

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado vs. DetroitFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Colorado +1.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These teams played on March 5th, and Detroit held on for the 2-1 victory. I believe tonight's game sets up as another hard-hitting, scrappy, competitive affair. Colorado is 12-18-4 overall, and just 2-13-3 on the road. The Avs though will look to build off their 1-0 home win over Nashville on Saturday, and take advantage of a discombobulated Wings side which has lost two straight, including a disturbing 7-1 setback to the Blackhawks yesterday (note that Detroit is interestingly just 8-9 this season vs. teams with a losing record). Detroit is 17-13-5 overall, and 9-6-3 at home. This is a brutal spot for the Wings, who are struggling right now in every facet of the game, getting outscored 9-1 over their current slide. Colorado's Semyon Varlamov stopped 34 shots last time out for his third shutout of the year, and there's no reason not to believe that he won't be at the top of his game tonight as well. ''Varly has been unbelievable,'' Avalanche center Matt Duchene echoed yesterday. ''He's been so consistent for us.'' It's a tough two game set for the Avs, who are in Nashville for the re-match tomorrow night. And because of that, I'm expecting Colorado to make the most of the situation it finds itself in coming into this one, and have no issues laying the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance.

Freddy WillsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland AthleticsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Oakland AthleticsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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A's had a great run last year and many doubt they can return to that great form in 2013. A lot of that will depend on the health of Brett Anderson, who when healthy can be one of the best. Anderson's last 8 starts vs the Mariners have been ridiculous posting a 0.85 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. Seattle was 24th with .679 OPS vs. LHP and were not a very good road or hitting team. They did pick a couple offensive weapons in a trade, but Morales is just a .218 hitter vs LHP over the last 3 years so he's likely to not help them in this match up. Of course the Mariners send their ace to the mound, but Felix Hernandez just signed a 175 million dollar contract. Pound for pound I've called him the best pitcher in baseball, but signing a contract like that sometimes sends players into a slump and I have to wonder where his concentration could be. Even if he's 100% focused I still like the As at home where they are 35-16 in their last 51 vs RH starter. Felix also has a higher ERA on the road and during night games and the A's are backed by a better bullpen.

MLB Predictions

Milwaukee Brewers -141

The Colorado Rockies went 64-98 last year, which was the third worst record in the National League. They were just 29-52 on the road, which was also 3rd worst in the NL. Milwaukee had a rough start to the year but made a late push to finish 83-79 on the season and 3rd in the NL Central. They were 49-32 at home. Colorado's opening day starter is Jhoulys Chacin who pitched just 14 games last season. He was 3-5 with a 4.43 ERA, .288 opponents batting average, and 1.62 WHIP. This spring he said he was being intentionally predictable but had a 8.44 ERA, .362 opponents batting average (OBA) and 1.81 WHIP. Yovani Gallardo will get yet another opening day start for Milwaukee, but hopes for a better result as he is 0-3 in opening day starts. Gallardo was 16-9 last year with a 3.66 ERA over 33 starts. He had a .243 OBA and 1.30 WHIP. Gallardo has proven to be a consistent starter as he has posted a sub 4.00 ERA in every season in the bigs. Over 18 starts at home last season he was 9-4 with a 3.72 ERA, and in 2011 he was 10-2 at home with a 3.00 ERA over 16 starts. This spring Gallardo posted a 3.54 ERA, .233 opponents batting average and 1.08 WHIP over 5 starts. He pitched 3.1 innings of work for Mexico at the World Baseball Classic and he allowed just 2 hits and 1 earned run with 4 strikeouts and 1 walk in a win over the USA. Note that the Rockies are 0-4 in Chacin's last 4 road starts, while the Brewers are 41-17 in Gallardo's last 58 home starts. Milwaukee finished off last year 37-16 in their last 53 home games, while the Rockies finished off 8-20 in their last 28 overall. Colorado played well vs Milwaukee last season, but the Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10 home meetings vs the Rockies. I like the pitching match up for Milwaukee here and with the Brewers at home I think we've got good value.

Andrew LangeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego at New YorkFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: New YorkFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Last year, San Diego's Edinson Volquez was somehow able to put together a respectable body of work: 11-11, 4.14 ERA. But make no mistake, it was a struggle. He suffered from mechanical issues for much of the season and it led to a career-high 105 walks. His saving grace was getting to toss 100 innings in Petco. When he was forced to go on the road, the results were dismal: 15 starts, 5.60 ERA, 1.65 WHIP. Well it's a new season but I'm reading a lot of the same stuff that plagued Volquez last year. In his last spring training start, Volquez walked six batters and admitted afterwards that once again his mechanics were off. Also note that he threw in the World Baseball Classic (10.1 IP, 6 walks) which is notorious for throwing pitchers off of their normal MLB routines. No question New York's Jon Niese was a bit fortunate last year with .272 BABIP and 76.5% LOB rates. However, I see positives in that he's steadily improved and has the capabilities to match last year's numbers (3.40 ERA, 3.80 FIP). The Padres will be without Chase Headley (thumb) who was essentially their entire offense last season (31 HRs, 115 RBI). Price isn't great, but worth some sort of play on the home side.

Sam MartinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies
Prediction: Memphis GrizzliesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Awful spot for San Antonio tonight, who not only are in a huge letdown spot after a tough two-point home loss against Miami, but now play tonight without rest and have to travel to Memphis to take on a physical defense in the Grizzlies. We'll back Memphis at home tonight as we look for San Antonio to really struggle on offense - party because of that letdown spot but also because of the lack of rest and dominant play of the Memphis D. Grizzles are 29-8 straight up here at home allowing only 87.5 points per game, and the Memphis offense is peaking right now, scoring 99, 103, and 101 points in their last three games. Vegas is setting the trap putting the Spurs in the underdog role here, but we're not biting and we'll lay the small points expecting an easy Memphis home win!
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George Mason at Santa ClaraFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: George MasonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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While we're not sure who wins this game outright, we are going to take the generous points with George Mason in the first leg of this CBI Championship Series against Santa Clara. The Patriots are a well-balanced team that can win both high-scoring games (as they did against College of Charleston and Houston) as well as low-scoring games (as they did against Western Michigan), and we feel they match up pretty well against Santa Clara here. The Broncos got here despite allowing 54% shooting against Wright State in their last game, and they will want to push the tempo here on their home court. But George Mason only allows 41% shooting on the season, and they have an offense capable of keeping up with the Broncos even in a high-scoring affair. This one comes down to the wire but George Mason covers with ease.