Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Houston Rockets +2
I'll take the better team, playing better basketball in this revenge spot. The Rockets lost to the Kings last month, but I expect them to have their revenge tonight against a team that has dropped 9 of 10. Sacramento is a poor 6-18 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season, losing in these spots by an average score of 99.8 to 106.2. The Kings are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Houston is 18-6 ATS revenging a loss where it scored less than 85 points over the last 3 seasons. It is also 20-9 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Lastly, the underdog is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. Take Houston.
SPORTS WAGERS
TORONTO +1.15 over Chicago
The South Side favored here is incorrect. The Jays continue to play well and they continue to not get much credit by the oddsmakers. The Blue Jays are a team that does not receive a lot of wagering support and that has created value on them from the opening day right up until now. It was noted in this space right at the beginning of the year that the Jays are much better than most think. After going 5-1 to open the year and showcasing a bullpen that looks fantastic, the Jays will open up at home after six consecutive on the road. Brian Tallet threw a gem in his season debut in Texas and that’s probably the cruelest place in the majors on pitchers. Tallet lasted well into the seventh inning and surrendered just four hits and two earned runs and the Jays pen did the rest. Tallet is a strong, 6’6 lefty that has a career BAA of just .251 in 190 appearances in the majors, including 32 as a starter. Furthermore, current White Sox hitters are 4-for-28 vs. Tallet, with RHBs Paul Konerko, Carlos Quentin and Andruw Jones going a collective 1-for-15. The White Sox come in having lost both series and that includes losing two of three to the challenged Indians to open the year. They’re 2-4 after playing all six games in Chicago. The South Siders have just two wins in their last 15 games in Toronto and this might be the worst team they’ve had in years. They’re batting a combined .203 thus far and that’s after seeing a whole slew of very average or below average chuckers. Incidentally, that .203 team batting average is last in the majors. Jake Peavy had a spring ERA of 6.55 and followed that up by getting whacked by the Indians. His pitches were all over the place and in fact, he walked two and hit two batters before being yanked in the fifth after surrendering seven hits and five runs. Another concern is that Peavy faced 26 batters and only four of them grounded out while 13 balls were hit in the air and that’s a sign of a guy not getting the ball down. Even if Peavy pitches well, the South Side is seeing BB’s and they hate to win at this joint. Play: Toronto +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh +1.51 over SAN FRANCISCO
Pittsburgh +1.52 over SAN FRANCISCO (1st 5 innings)
The Pirates have already beaten Dan Haren and Clayton Kershaw, they took two of three from the Dodgers and they’re playing pretty decent ball. They have a lot of speed and they’ve also displayed some early power by going deep eight times already in six games. Russ Ohlendorf is not spectacular by any stretch but finds ways to hang around and he usually gives the Pirates a chance to win just like he did in his season opener when he beat the Dodgers 4-3. He won 11 games last season in 29 starts and allowed just 165 hits in 179 frames. This will be Ohlendorf’s first career start vs. SF, the current members of which are a collective 0-for-13 against him. Barry Zito threw a gem against the Astros but so what. The Astros are the only winless team left and they’ve made every pitcher look good with the exception of 75-yr old Jamie Moyer. Zito was absolutely crushed in the spring, going 0-2 with a 6.55 ERA after allowing 33 hits and 16 earned runs in 22 innings. So, this one is more about taking back a pretty sweet tag against Zito than it is on playing Ohlendorf and thus the split into two separate bets. Play: Pittsburgh in the first five innings +1.52 (Risking 1 unit) Play: Pittsburgh +1.51 (Risking 1 unit).
Sac Lawson
ATL (-115) vs SDP
This is all about value guys.. At the opening line there was very little value in taking Atlanta at -150. What we've seen here is a huge move by sharp money on the Padres in their home opener, likely to try and buy back in an arbitrage later on.
At this low number, it's just too good to pass up. Jurrjens has an ERA in the low 1's in two career starts against the Padres, and playing in this massive pitchers park, off a first start of the year where he gave up zero earned runs, i look for a huge performance.
Don't get me wrong, I respect Correia, hell anytime you win 12 games in a Padres uniform you are doing something right. And tonight he has the luxury of NOT having to face Chipper Jones.
Fact is, my thoughts are simplistic here, anytime we get 40 bucks off the opening line, and anytime we get Jair facing a Padres team in a pitchers ball park, there is absolutely no way we can pass it up. I know many people will scream trap, but i truly believe it's nothing more than an arbitrage move by some sharp money. Let's cash in on the Braves for a unit!
CLE / TEX Over 8
I realize that Cleveland is somewhat of a pitchers park, I also realize that Fausto has been somewhat money in day games. No doubting the fact that his sinker is harder to track in the glare of a day game sunlight. That being said, his worst enemy over the last couple years has been the Rangers. Fausto is a guy that walks a lot of batters, so you've got to simply depend on him to not allow hits to counter that. Issue is, he's giving up an opponents BA of over 0.400 to this Texas squad. If Fausto isn't forcing groundball outs, his pitch count will sky rocket and we'll see him out of there by the middle of the 5th inning. At that point, you've just gotta question whether that Cleveland pen has anything left after the nonsense they went through last night. The Indians used 5 relievers last night and three of them threw over 25 pitches, meaning that at least three of them aren't available tonight (including their closer). On that Cleveland side, we've got Fausto who hasn't had much success against Texas at all, and we've got a tired/used up bullpen.
On the Texas side, we've got a guy in Harden who has only faced Cleveland once in his career (i believe), but he gave up 4 home runs that day. You'll get two things from Harden every year... Well make that three... Strikeouts, Home Runs, and an Injury. Like I mentioned.. Cleveland is definitely a pitchers park, but Harden can definitely walk some folks, and usually doesn't have a hard time giving up homers to lefties (Hafner and Choo, I'm calling on you!) Expect both these starters to give up 2-4 runs, and expect the bullpens to struggle as well. This could easily be an 8-5 ball game guys.
Wunderdog
Washington Wizards vs. New York Knicks
Play: Washington Wizards +3.5
The Knicks made a nice 12-6 run around the first of the year, but have slipped badly since. The Knicks, over their last 45 games, have been a woeful 13-32. They did manage a 5-3 ATS mark during their 12-6 run as a favorite, but otherwise are 5-10 ATS as chalk. The Wizards, since ending a six-game losing streak, have played much better having gone 4-3 over their last seven, including 3-1 vs. teams with a losing record. The Knicks play well against the good teams, but have stumbled vs. the weak ones as they are just 2-7 ATS at home in their last nine vs. a team with a losing record. I'll go with Washington in this one.
Craig Trapp
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Miami Heat -4
Handicapping the motiavation to win this time of year is as important as handicapping the teams and trends. Philly is looking for vacation spots for the offseason and Miami is looking to improve/maintain their current playoff seeding. DWade and company need to win this so they can ensure that they play Boston instead of Atlanta. Really love the MIA defense as they have been just locking teams down. MIA is 9-1 straight up the L10 games and 7-3 ATS in L10. Can't imagine that MIA doesn't come out motivated and really put the hammer down on PHILLY!
Larry Ness
Houston @ Sacramento
PICK: Sacramento -2
The Rockets were hoping to clinch a winning season with a win last night at Phoenix but the Suns used a 14-0 run late in the 4th quarter to beat Houston, 116-106. The 41-39 Rockets will miss the playoffs this year for the first time in four seasons and play tonight in Sacramento, before the team's final game of the season at home on Wednesday vs the Hornets. The Kings have lost NINE of their last 10 but I continue to contend that this team is better than its record. PG Tyreke Evans (20.2-5.3-5.8) is poised to become just the fourth rookie in NBA history to average 20.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists for a season. The others were the Big O, MJ and LeBron (pretty good company). Forward Carl Landry has been terrific for the Kings since being acquired from Houston, averaging 18.3 PPG and 6.7 RPG in 26 games with his new team. He should be motivated against his ex-teammates. Martin, the main player for Houston in the Landry trade, has averaged 20.3 PPG in 22 games with the Rockets but he's been bothered by a bad shoulder lately and has totaled just 17 points in Houston's last two games. The Rockets have lost two of three to Sacramento this season, including a 109-100 defeat in their only visit to Arco Arena. In his first game in Houston since the trade, Landry had 22 points and 10 rebounds as the Kings won 84-81. I'm calling for Landry and Evans to lead the Kings to a win here in their final home game of the season, before going to LA tomorrow night where they will almost assuredly lose to the Lakers. Take the Kings.
Teddy Covers
Toronto Raptors @ Detroit
PICK: Detroit -2
We cashed a ticket betting against the Raptors yesterday, as the Bulls went into Toronto and destroyed Jay Triano's squad. Chicago led led by as many as 25 in the fourth quarter in the single most important game of the season for Toronto. This Raptors squad is in absolute free fall right now. They've lost five straight (1-4 ATS) since Chris Bosh got hurt, and 18 of their last 25 ballgames. Top perimeter defender Antoine Wright isn't expected to suit up either. Offensive minded forward Hedo Turkoglu shot only 2-12 from the floor in the loss yesterday, less than 100% as well.
Meanwhile the Pistons are on a nice little under-the-radar 3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS run since their top interior defender, Ben Wallace, returned back to the lineup after his own injury absence. Starting point guard Rodney Stuckey, too, is likely to suit up tonight after missing the Pistons last two games. Expect a veteran Detroit team to show a real sense of purpose tonight in their home finale against a 'must fade' Toronto squad this evening. 2* Take Detroit.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Miami Heat -4
Bottom Line: The Heat have won 10 of their last 11 and I expect their winning ways to continue against a 76ers squad that has dropped 6 of 7 and all 3 meetings to the Heat this season. Miami is an impressive 14-5 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) this season, defeating these teams by an average score of 103.4 to 90.2. The Heat are also a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games. Lay the points with Miami Monday.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -139
The pitching matchup greatly favors the Rays here when you consider that the Orioles are 1-6 in Guthrie's last 7 starts vs. the Rays and the Rays are 4-1 in Garza's last 5 starts vs. the Orioles. The Rays have won 24 of the last 33 in this series and I expect this domination to continue behind Garza.
SPORTS WAGERS
PHILADELPHIA +1.63 over Miami
The Heat and Bucks are tied for fifth and sixth and they’ll end up there for sure. The fact is, Miami will either open the playoffs on the road in either Boston or Atlanta and if they had a preference, one would have to believe they’d rather play the Hawks. Boston is a dangerous playoff team with a great defense and there’s no way the Heat aren’t aware of the challenges that face them should they play the C’s. If the season ended today, the Heat would play in Atlanta and chances are that’s where they’re going to end up anyway unless they win its last two and Milwaukee loses one. It’s unlikely that the Heat even care about winning this game after playing in New York yesterday and blowing away the Knicks. All teams love playing and performing well in New York and the Heat are no exception. Now they’ll play its third game in four days and we’ve all seen this Heat team pull a whole bunch of no-shows all season long. The Sixers can be very dangerous when taken lightly and although its defense is lousy, its offense is not. They have some outstanding shooters and they should be ready to go tonight in its final home game of the year. Situation is a good one for the upset. Play: Philadelphia +1.63 (Risking 2 units).
SACRAMENTO –2 over Houston
What a great spot for the Kings. They, too, will play its final home game in front of another sell-out crowd and in terms of fan support, the Kings may just have the best fans in the game and the players know it. They’ll come out and they’ll play their hearts out for the city and for the fans. The players love the and appreciate the support. Besides, it’s not like their playing some powerhouse here. The Rockets are going nowhere and they’re a very beatable club. They played yesterday in Phoenix and the Suns are always a tiring team to play against. Houston will also play its third game in four days and will end the season at home on Wednesday against the disinterested Hornets. Sac is well rested, they’re healthy and they should respond in a big way tonight. Play: Sacramento –2 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).