Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, April 15

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

LA Angels at Minnesota
The Twins look to take advantage of an Angels' team that is 0-4 in its last 4 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Minnesota is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Twins favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-105)

Game 901-902: St. Louis at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lynn) 16.197; Pittsburgh (McDonald) 16.739
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+100); Over

Game 903-904: Philadelphia at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lee) 14.800; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 15.078
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+110); Over

Game 905-906: Washington at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Zimmermann) 15.756; Miami (LeBlanc) 13.852
Dunkel Line: Washington by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-180); Under

Game 907-908: NY Mets at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 15.479; Colorado (Nicasio) 15.162
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-135); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+115); Over

Game 909-910: San Diego at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stults) 14.075; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 16.285
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-180); Under

Game 911-912: Tampa Bay at Boston (11:05 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 15.501; Boston (Dempster) 15.186
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+120); Over

Game 913-914: Chicago White Sox at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 14.904; Toronto (Buehrle) 14.524
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+125); Over

Game 915-916: LA Angels at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Blanton) 14.242; Minnesota (Correia) 14.636
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-105); Over

Game 917-918: Houston at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Bedard) 14.291; Oakland (Milone) 16.574
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-180); Under

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati RedsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Philadelphia PhilliesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Phillies and Reds open a 3-game series in Cincinnati where Cliff Lee opposes Bronson Arroyo Monday evening. Lee toes the slab with a sharp 7-4 career team start mark against the Reds while Arroyo has struggles throughout his MLB career against Philadelphia with a 3-8 team start mark, including 1-4 at home. With the Phillies owning a 16-4 mark the last 20 games in this park, look for more of the same this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Philadelphia.

Steve Merril

Tampa Bay vs. Boston
Play: Under 8½

Both teams will have to set their alarm clocks bright and early in Boston as they’ll play this game at 11 am ET. The Red Sox are going for the sweep and they’ll have to beat Jeremy Hellickson to get it. The righty has scuffled a bit in his two starts this season allowing 8 runs and 13 hits in just over 11 innings. Hellickson is 3-2 with a 4.10 ERA in nine career starts against the Red Sox. Jacoby Ellsbury (3-17), Will Middlebrooks (1-9), Daniel Nava (1-7) and Dustin Pedroia (5-22) all struggle with the Tampa pitcher. The wins keep coming for the Red Sox, but the runs aren't coming as much. They have scored just 16 runs so far in the homestand which wraps up today. The Rays bullpen has done the job on the road posting an ERA under 2.00 so far this year.

Ryan Dempster makes his third start of the year for Boston. He has not picked up a win yet, but he has 15 strikeouts in 10 innings. Yunel Escobar (1-9), Kelly Johnson (1-11) and James Loney (2-16) have had their problems with the Boston pitcher. The Rays are hitting .160 in their last six games posting only 8 runs. They have just three hits with runners in scoring position over that stretch and they have not hit a home run since April 6th. These two teams probably will not go with full strength lineups either as it's an early game with both teams travelling afterwards. The Under has hit 13 of the last 20 games in Boston, and we expect that trend to continue on Monday.

Jimmy Boyd

Pittsburgh Pirates +104

James McDonald is having a great start to the season for the Pittsburgh Pirates. He has a 3.75 ERA overall and a 1.29 ERA in his only home start this season. For the Cardinals Lance Lynn will get the start. Lynn is not having a great start to the season as he brings a 9.00 ERA on the road to this game.

McDonald has a history of success when playing against St Louis. He is 3-1 in his career with a 2.04 ERA and a 1.047 WHIP. Lance Lynn has not been quite as successful when playing against Pittsburgh. Lynn has a 4.70 ERA in his career against the Pirates.

The Pirates offense has been hot coming into this game against the Cardinals. They put up 10 runs against the Reds yesterday and they have won five of their last six games. The Cardinals are coming off an extra innings loss against Milwaukee and now have to travel to Pittsburgh to take on this red hot Pirates team.

Ryan James

Sacramento / Oklahoma City Over 213½

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 8-0 to the over in home games against Pacific division teams this season. The Sacramento Kings defense is allowing 105 points per game on the road this season. That is their average playing against many teams that have nowhere near the scoring potential that the Thunder have. Oklahoma City is averaging 109.1 points per game at home this season. While the Kings are not a good team, they are certainly not a team that is short on scoring ability. They average 100.2 points per game and when combined with Oklahoma’s ability to score at will we have the perfect combination for a high scoring game that should go over the total.

Dave Cokin

Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies

Tough times for the Reds right now. They return home from a bad road trip that ended with them losing five straight. The worst was on Sunday as they wasted another strong Mat Latos effort in a late collapse against the Pirates. The Reds really miss Sean Marshall is the bullpen right now, and what they've got in front of Aroldis Chapman is not going to scare too many opponents.

The Phillies aren't too much themselves at this point. The offense is spotty at best, the rotation has holes and overall they look like a really average team. But they're throwing their most reliable guy tonight in Cliff Lee and he could well be catching the slumping Reds at just the right time.

There isn't any doubt as to the better attack here. That advantage goes to the Reds. But they will have to earn whatever they get tonight, as Lee is literally walking nobody and it's not like the contact he's giving up has been especially damaging. Lee is the model of efficiency right now, and while he's had a little difficulty with the Reds hitters he figures to face tonight (20/69, 3 HR), there's nothing in the analytics that suggests a bad night for Lee.

Bronson Arroyo somehow gets by with what can only be described as marginal stuff at best. Arroyo is proof that a guy can stick around for years as long as he has guile and a refusal to give in and walk himself into jams. I'm never really comfortable trying to beat this cat because of those factors. He looks like he ought to get roasted but somehow usually doesn't and gives his team a chance to win. But Arroyo is also not at all dominant which makes it tough for him to beat high level opposing pitchers. Arroyo has had some issues with the probable lineup he'll see tonight (26/74, 5 HR).

Pitching edge certainly has to go to the road team tonight and with the Reds possibly reeling a bit off the very bad loss on Sunday, this is not the worst spot to lay a reasonable price on the road with Lee and the Phillies.

Jim Feist

Memphis at Dallas
Pick: Under

A tough week for Dallas, getting knocked out of the playoff race, and a tough situational spot, the second of a back to back spot after playing at New Orleans yesterday. The under is 5-0-1 in the Mavericks last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The old men of Dallas won't want to run and gun and that's not the style Memphis plays, slowing things down while allowing 89.4 ppg -- tops in the NBA. They just played uptempo Houston last week and allowing 78 points in a game that sailed under the total. The under is 28-11-1 in the Grizzlies last 40 against the Western Conference. The under is 19-7-1 in the last 27 meetings, including 9-3-1 under in the last 13 meetings in Dallas. Play the Mavericks/Grizzlies under the total.

Frank Jordan

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

This is the patriots day match up on the same day as the Boston Marathon, but hopefully this won't be a long game. These two teams are opposite as Boston is tops and Tampa Bay is bottom of the AL East, but as most predicted still a close division throughout as they are only separated by a few games. In a match up of pitchers who are 0-1 look for Hellickson to outduel Demptster with a little help from Longoria's bat and glove. Play Tampa Bay

Art Aronson

Dallas vs. Chicago
Pick: Dallas +1.5

On April 5th I released a "puck-line" wager on the Dallas Stars vs. the Anaheim Ducks. If you didn't have a chance to read that analysis back then, I believe it's worth a second look right now:

These teams have played each other four times this year: Dallas won 3-1 at home on February 8th. Anaheim would then go on to take the next three: 2-1 in Dallas on March 14th, 4-1 in Dallas on April 1st, and 5-2 at home on April 3rd. With that setback on Wednesday, the Stars have lost three in a row. It certainly doesn't get any easier for them after tonight either: after three straight vs. the Ducks, Dallas plays San Jose three times to end the season; LA twice; also Nashville, Chicago, Vancouver, St. Louis and Detroit. Here's a perfect opportunity for the Stars to get untracked and make a serious push to end the year, in what has to considered one of their most difficult stretches of the season. Anaheim's path to the playoffs is a little easier, with opponents such as the Oilers three times, Columbus, Colorado and Calgary. Divisional battles are always the toughest, and that's doubly so at this time of year. The truncated season has caused scheduling anomalies like this, and I simply feel that the Stars will be sick and tired of losing and will be playing with an extreme sense of desperation, as if their playoff hopes were on the line (which in fact they pretty much are). And it's this hunger and focus that I believe justifies in paying the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance for the Stars, in what will turn out to be a highly competitive affair.

Immediately after posting this play, I had someone say this to me: "(Joe) Nieuwendyk has given up on the season by letting Jagr, Roy, and their captain go for a bunch of picks/prospects. Something tells me the team gets the memo. Just saying in regard to 'extreme sense of desperation'".

I had actually liked some of the moves that Nieuwendyk had made and had thought at that time that the Stars still had enough talent and a legitimate shot at making the playoffs.

Dallas would in fact go on to play with a massive sense of desperation in that game, not even needing the extra 1.5 goals of insurance by winning outright 3-1.

And ever since that game, the Stars have been dominating in all phases: on April 7th they won 5-4 in a shootout at San Jose. On the 9th they won 5-1 vs. Los Angeles. On the 12th they won 5-2 at Nashville. And most recently they harpooned the Sharks again 2-1 on the 13th.

These teams have played twice this year, and Chicago has won both: 3-2 in Dallas on January 24th, and 8-1 in Dallas on March 16th.

I had the "under" in the Blackhawks/Blues yesterday, which turned out to be a relatively easy cash, as Chicago skated away with a tough, physically draining 2-0 victory. So will the Blackhawks get caught looking ahead to their three whole days off after tonight's game?

I believe the answer is an emphatic: "YES"!

Dallas continues to get little respect from opponents and oddsmakers alike.

I believe the table is set for another upset here. The Stars have momentum and a plethora of motivating external factors working in their favor today.

Chicago is coming off a satisfying win and I think will come out a bit flat-footed. I'm going to make a half-unit play on this, laying the juice for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance in what I believe will be a highly competitive affair.

MLB Predictions

San Diego Padres +170

These two teams meet for the first time since the "Grienke Brawl" that put the Dodgers ace out for a number of weeks and got Carlos Quentin suspended for eight games. With that said I don't see much happening tonight. The Padres are just 2-10 on the season and 1-5 on the road as they've lost 5 straight games heading into tonight. The Dodgers are 7-5 on the year and 4-2 at home, but lost their weekend series in Arizona being shutout twice. Although the Dodgers have a better team batting average and OBP than the Padres they have only scored 34 runs in 12 games played, while the Padres have scored 39 in the same number of games. The Dodgers are 28th in runs scored so far in this young season. San Diego will send Eric Stults to the mound. He is 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA so far this year. He gave up 0 earned runs in New York striking out 7 and walking 2 and then gave up 8 hits and 4 earned runs striking out 4 and walking none against the Dodgers. In 2012 he had a solid 2.91 ERA and he was 4-2 with a 2.54 ERA, .237 OBA, and 1.11 WHIP on the road. Dodgers starter will be Chad Billingsley who has just one start this year and it was in San Diego. He went 6 innings giving up 5 hits and 1 run with 3 strikeouts and 3 walks. Last season he pitched to a 3.55 ERA but was just 3-4 at home with a 4.32 ERA, .288 OBA, and 1.52 WHIP. Take note that these two starting pitchers faced off on the 10th of April with the Dodgers winning 4-3. The Dodgers did win 2 of the 3 games, but both wins were by 1 run and the Padres outscored the Dodgers 14-10 in the series. Take note that the Dodgers are 5-1 in Stults' last 6 road starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as an underdog of +151 to +200. They are also 7-2 in his last 9 starts overall. From last season the Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in Los Angeles and tonight with Stults on the mound I think they have a good shot at getting the first game victory. At +170 I'll go with the San Diego tonight.

Wunderdog

Philadelphia at Montreal
Pick: Under 5.5

It has been quite a season so far for Montreal who has a chance to go deep in the playoffs. They have held 24 opponents on the season to two goals or less and, over their last ten, they have limited six of those opponents to one or less. They should contain a Flyers attack which has been non-existent over their last four games. Philly has found the net just three times in the four contests, losing them all. The Flyers have also played four straight to the UNDER after a day of rest, while the Canadiens have sparkled in front of the net at home where they have now played seven straight to the UNDER. Make the play on the UNDER in this one.

Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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LA Angels vs. MinnesotaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: LA AngelsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Two days ago, the Angels were on the verge of their worst start in franchise history. I had played them Saturday and they were trailing 4-1 to the sorry Houston Astros at home entering the home half of the eighth inning. Four runs later and they had themselves a win and I again played them yesterday in a much easier 4-1 victory. I see them building on that momentum here in Minnesota to start the week.
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If the Astros came into the season as the consensus choice to be the worst team in the American League, then Minnesota was definitely pegged to be the second worst. They had yesterday off because of snow. Mother Nature probably couldn't have intervened at a better time for the Twins as they had dropped their previous five games, getting outscored 33-12 while batting .200.
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The warm-weather Angels probably won't like the conditions at Target Field, but they have to like what they've seen from both Josh Hamilton and Mike Trout in recent days. The duo has combined to go 8 for 16 at the plate in the last two games with three home runs and 8 RBI's. Assuming this game is played, there is no reason to believe the superior team won't assert itself.

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San Antonio vs. Golden StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Golden StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Spurs took a critical loss last night in Los Angeles, losing to the Lakers in their first game without Kobe Bryant. That loss put the Spurs one game back of Oklahoma City with just two to play and it's important to remember that the Thunder own the tiebreaker. So unless San Antonio wins out and Oklahoma City loses out, San Antonio is NOT getting the #1 seed in the Western Conference. Monday finds them at Golden State.
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Here are my keys to the game.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1. Warriors' Own Motivation - While San Antonio's battle with Oklahoma City has had the attention of most NBA fans down the stretch, the Warriors are locked in their own battle for seeding further down the Western Conference food chain. They enter the day tied with the Rockets for sixth place and like the Spurs, they do not own the luxury of a tiebreak. Unlike San Antonio though, they have a more realistic shot at getting the higher seed.
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2. Fatigue - The Spurs are an older team and had to play last night on the road. The Warriors have not played since Friday and are at home.
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3. X-Factor - Lately, the Spurs have had significant issues covering the spread. They are only 3-13 ATS the L16 games overall.

Sam MartinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami Heat at Cleveland CavaliersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Cleveland CavaliersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cavs have played Miami very tough this season, losing three games by a combined nine points but having big leads in all three contests before Miami made furious fourth-quarter comebacks all three times. Tonight, the Heat will be resting their star players and we look for the Cavs to finally come through with their big win against the Heat that has eluded them so far this season. Cleveland has covered this season's three meetings by a combined 29.5 points, and on the season they are a dominant 15-1 ATS against teams from the Atlantic Division. This is the final chance for the Cavs to play inspired ball, as they once again miss the postseason and this will be their final home game. Cavs go out with a bang against a disinterested Miami squad tonight!