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New York Mets vs. Colorado RockiesFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Colorado RockiesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado comes off their second series sweep of San Diego this season. After two weeks, the Rockies are the only team in baseball that is undefeated at home with a 3-0 record in their house. Colorado took the L4 contests vs. New York, a season ago. Currently, the team is posting an average of 5.42 RPG overall but when hosting, they score 6.67 RPG, outscoring visitors by 4.67 RPG. Their lineup possesses five sluggers hitting .300 or better, including three batters already in DDs in Home Runs, and five players with 13 or more hits. Today, Juan Nicasio takes the mound. The RH is 1-0 on the season, never facing NY in his career, but owns a lifetime 6-3 home mark. New York has one of the Majors highest-scoring teams in the League…HOWEVER, they faced four teams that are a combined 14-33, as three of those clubs are in last place and the other is a fourth place team. Murphy, Buck, and Wright are playing sold ball as supporting cast members, Tejada and Byrd are contributing as well. But the offense also has 85 Ks and only 6 SBs. Their pitching is mediocre, allowing 3.53 RPG while their defense has already committed 8 Errors. Dillon Gee gets the nod. The RH is 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA. Last season, Gee had a road ERA of 5.16. The Rockies are 7-0 their L7 games played at home, 7-1 their L8 vs. RH starters, and 9-3 in Nicasio's L12 as a home fav. The Mets are 11-31 their L42 games vs. teams with a winning record, 5-16 their L21 games played as a 'dog, and 2-8 in Gee's L10 starts. Take Colorado.
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Chicago Bulls -3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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While the Bulls are still without Derrick Rose, they are hoping to have both Taj Gibson and Joakim Noah back from injuries tonight. Richard Hamilton will also return to action after serving a one-game suspension. If either Gibson or Noah play tonight the Bulls should have no trouble covering this spread against the lowly Magic. Orlando has been playing hard despite their horrible record, but this figures to be a tough game for them. Chicago desperately needs to get a win here to keep hope alive at getting the No. 5 seed and avoiding the Pacers in the first round of the playoffs. Chicago has won 8 of their last 9 games in this series, including 5 straight in Orlando. If both Noah and Gibson suit up I will treat this like a premium play and increase my wager, but for now it's simply a 1 unit play.
Rob Vinciletti
San Antonio Spurs vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs have won 17 of the last 18 in the series vs the Warriors and Are taking points here tonight.The Warriors are 4-15 straight up of late vs winning teams. The Spurs have played well vs Pacific division teams and the Warriors are off a tough loss to the Lakers in their last game. Look for the Spurs to inch closer to the 60 win mark. Take the 4-5 points with San Antonio.
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Washington Wizards +6FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Wizards are showing value catching a nice amount of points against a Nets team with nothing left to play for. Brooklyn is locked into the 4th spot in the East so it now has the luxury of resting starters. Carlesimo said his staff will discuss resting players over the final two games. "We don't need to get anybody hurt," he said. "We're not playing for anything. Going forward now we've certainly got to rest some people." While you can argue that the Wizards have nothing left to play for either, coach Wittman set a goal of 30 wins and they are just one win away from that. "We have two more games left and we definitely want to get to 30 wins," Garrett Temple said. The Nets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games and 17-35-2 ATS in their last 54 home games versus a team with a losing road record. The Wizards are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games versus a team with a winning record. Take the points.
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Utah Jazz -3½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Utah Jazz are in a must-win situation tonight. They need to win their final two games of the regular season while having the Los Angeles Lakers lose their finale against Houston to earn a spot in the playoffs.
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Knowing that they'll be laying it all on the line for a win tonight, I'll gladly back the Jazz as a small road favorite over the Minnesota Timberwolves (30-50). This is certainly one team that they have no problem against given their recent head-to-head history.
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Utah is 4-0 SU in its last four meetings with Minnesota. It is 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with the Timberwolves as well. Dating back further, the Jazz are 10-2 SU in their last 12 meetings in this series with all 10 wins coming by 4 points or more.
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While Utah comes in well-rested and on two days' rest having last played on Friday, Minnesota is a very tired team heading into this one. In fact, the Timberwolves will be playing their 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the toughest spots in the NBA today, especially late in the season.
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The Jazz are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Utah is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 road games. The Timberwolves are 7-17-2 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Minnesota is 5-16-1 ATS in its last 22 games following a S.U. win. Bet the Jazz Monday.
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Vancouver Canucks at Nashville PredatorsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Vancouver CanucksFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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They're waving the white surrender flags in Nashville as the Preds have lost six straight (three of those being shutout defeats) and five in a row at home, effectively removing them from playoff consideration. With the goals having disappeared, it's hard to iamgine Nashville turning things around tonight at Bridgestone Arena agaionst a hungry Vancovuer squad looking to improve its playoff situation. Keep in mind that the Canucks had won four in a row and 10 of 12 before a 4-3 loss at Colorado on Saturday. The Preds have totaled a measly six goals since a 3-1 victory over Colorado on April 2, and with the club besieged by injuries, that drought could easily increase. Colin Wilson, Paul Gaustad and Gabriel Bourque are all out for the season, while Patric Hornqvist, Brandon Yip and Mike Fisher all missed Sunday's 3-0 loss to the Red Wings and are considered day-to-day. Vancouver has won five of the last seven regular-season meetings, including two earlier this year, scoring a season-high 7 goals in one of those wins on March 14 at Rogers Arena.
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Spurs at WarriorsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Under is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 games playing on 0 days rest. Under is 6-1 in Spurs last 7 Monday games. Under is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 3-0-1 in Warriors last 4 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Under is 9-3 in SA last 12 vs. Western Conference. Under is 11-5 in GS last 16 vs. Western Conference.
SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago +120 over TORONTOFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1st 5 innings. The Blue Jays return home, where they opened the year with just two wins in their first six games. On the artificial turf in Toronto, the Jays defense was atrocious and that’s a huge liability with Mark Buehrle on the hill because when Buehrle pitches, the defense comes into play. Buehrle is so predictable that we were considering a blind copy & paste from the previous posts we’ve made about him (he does it, why can't we?). Buehrle gave up a few more HR’s last year, his ground ball rate is in slow fade and so is his usefulness on the mound. In two starts at the Rogers Center covering just 9.2 innings, Buehrle has been tagged for 14 hits (two of them bombs) and 11 earned runs. He has a BAA of .326 and these White Sox know his tendencies better than any club in the majors. At the age of 34 with twelve straight 200-IP seasons and with average skills at best, Buehrle is a prime fade candidate.
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Gavin Floyd’s elbow woes began in second half last year. His July-Aug DL stints that followed were career firsts and were responsible for his 2H command woes. After two starts, Floyd has a 5.56 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Those numbers combined with his injuries from last season has Floyd grossly undervalued here. Floyd had a 23/4 K/BB in 21 IP this spring and his skills in his first two starts have continued to be really good. Floyd has 12 K’s with just four walks in 11 innings. He has also induced a 53% groundball rate and has an xERA of 3.22 over those first two starts. Floyd is on the verge of a gem. He's throwing harder than he was at this time in 2012 and is a great buy low target. Definite overlay here on the South Side.
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N.Y. Mets +114 over COLORADOFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1st 5 innings. We were on the Mets yesterday with Dillon Gee projected to start but that game in Minnesota was rained out and now Gee gets an extra days rest in another favorable pitching matchup. Dillon Gee was lit up in his last start in Philadelphia to the tune of 10 hits and seven earned runs in three innings, thus his 7.71 ERA in two starts. However, Gee went 6.1 innings in his season debut against the Padres and allowed just three hits and one run and that’s the Dillon Gee you can expect to see more often. Gee had few bad starts last season. He has a two-year, strong groundball bias profile (45%) and a very good line-drive profile of 18% over that same span. Gee’s combination of solid command and GB% give us an xERA that's a run and a half below his actual ERA over the past two seasons, suggesting there should be better times ahead for this skilled 27-year old. Current Rockies have just 21 career AB’s against Gee (just five hits) and that should also work in our favor.
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We’re playing this one in five frames because it’s unlikely that Juan Nicasio will last that long. Juan Nicasio has battled significant injuries (back, knee) the past two seasons. That shelf time has prevented him from making good use of his 94 mph fastball, a pitch that has given him a decent strikeout rate in his brief major league career. That said, there are warning signs in addition to his poor durability. His 7.3% swinging strike rate doesn't support a high strikeout rate and he's a two-pitch pitcher. Two-pitch pitchers usually don’t last long at this level unless they’re overpowering with great control but that’s certainly not the case with Nicasio. In 11 frames over his first two starts he’s walked seven batters while whiffing just four. Last season, Nicasio followed up a 4.40 ERA, 1.53 WHIP in April with an even worse 5.86 ERA, 1.63 WHIP in May. He’s spent 177 days on the DL over the past two years and he appears to be too rusty and too erratic to trust spotting a tag against a Mets’ squad that is hitting .286 on the road to go along with a .503 slugging % and a .838 OPS.
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Columbus -108 over COLORADOFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. No team in the NHL has shown more grit, resiliency or determination than these Jackets over the past few weeks and especially this past week. Facing the daunting task of facing San Jose, St. Louis and Minnesota with its playoffs hopes hanging on the outcomes, Columbus went out and defeated all three of those playoff teams by a combined score of 11-3. The Jackets are now just two points (tied with Dallas) behind Detroit for the final playoff spot. Columbus is healthy, they’re in great form and they continue to get outstanding goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky.
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The Avalanche are forced once again to use J.S. Giguere in net and while the aging goaltender has performed admirably, he’s a backup playing more minutes than he’s played in years. Colorado is also coming off a rather satisfying week in which they picked up five out of a possible six points against L.A., Anaheim and Vancouver. Impressive, yes, but unsustainable because those teams took them a bit lightly but the Jackets will not. Colorado is also playing with a depleted lineup, as several key players remain out. Give the Avs credit for responding to Giguere’s tirade after a recent loss to Calgary. The response is over and now the Avalanche will have to face the most determined club in the NHL. Colorado reverts back to its losing ways here because when a hungrier foe faces them, they lose every time. The Jackets are hungrier.
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Vancouver -½ +106 over NASHVILLEFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. The Predators are finished. They have five games left and they’re 9 points out of a playoff spot with five games remaining while most of the teams above them have seven games remaining. The Preds have dropped six straight and have been held to one goal or fewer in four of those six games while being shut out in three of them. They also played yesterday and Friday, making this their third game in four days. Nashville has been held to 22 shots or fewer in four of its past five games. The Predators have quit. They have no motivation and we suggest you jump on this one early just in case they decide to go with Chris Mason in net, as Pekka Rinne played yesterday. Mason is 0-2 at home with a save % of .704. Regardless of whether or not Mason starts, the Preds have less chance of competing here than they would of defending Australia in a game of Risk.
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The Canucks are coming off a loss in Colorado on Saturday afternoon. That can’t be sitting too well with them. The Canucks are going to win their division but there’s still plenty of motivation for them to improve their playoff seeding, as they are tied with the Kings and they’re just three points ahead of the Sharks. In the heat of a playoff race and coming off a loss, there are no excuses for the Canucks not to bury this team early. Again, the Predators have no interest in playing hockey. They will be present in body only tonight and if the Canucks lose this game, shame on them.
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Dallas +188 over CHICAGOFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. The Blackhawks are home free. They are going to finish first in the West and it’s not even going to be close. They are also very likely to finish first overall in the league standings, as they are four points up on the depleted Penguins with one game in hand. The Blackhawks are coming off weekend wins over Detroit and St. Louis, making this their third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs. Satisfied and sitting pretty, this is the perfect spot for Chicago to take a little breather.
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Enter the Dallas Stars, winners of five straight to get right back into the playoff picture. A win here and the Stars leapfrog over the Red Wings into the eighth and final playoff spot. Dallas is not only winning but it is doing so in impressive fashion over quality teams. The Stars have outscored their past five opponents by a combined 20-9. Among their victims were the Ducks, Kings and Sharks (twice). The better team doesn’t always win. If that were the case, we’d all be rich. When the situation is right and the pooch is in good form and motivated, an upset is a distinct possibility. Everything lines up nicely for that to occur here and the price most definitely adds to the Stars appeal.
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3 UNIT PLAYSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia -118 over CINCINNATI: I do pick my spots to make my Phils a top play. Yesterday I won with them and I will look to them again, because I feel this is a great spot to do so. The Reds are coming off a 6 game road trip and it may take them a day to get used to home cooking again. Cincinnati lost their last 5 of that trip and fr the most part their offense has taken a vacation, scoring just 2.8 rpg over the losing streak. Lack of offense is not good when you're about to take on Cliff lee, who has established himself as the ace of the Phillies staff. Cliff comes in 2-0 on the year with a 1.08 ERA and an 0.60 WHIP and h is 3-0 with a 2.11 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Reds. Bronson Arroyo is heading the other way in both stats as he is 1-1 with a 5.25 ERA on the year, while in his last 5 starts vs the Phils he is 1-4 with a 9.00 ERA vs them. Not good at all. The Phils offense is starting to click some as they have hit .274 and have scored 4.2 rpg over their last 5 games. The Matchup on the mound clearly favors the Phils and I feel their offenses is a bit better right now as well, plus we get Cincy here off the long road trip. That all should add up to a nice Philies win in this one.
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LA Dodgers/ San Diego Under 7: I had been playing overs in San Diegos home games this year, but now we switch to the leagues toughest park to hit in. In 6 home games this year Dodger Stadium has yielded a .192 BA, a .277 slugging % and those games have scored just 4.5 rpg. The Dodgers offense not taken flight this year as they have averaged just 2.93 rpg overall and 2.83 rpg at home and may have trouble getting that offense going in this one vs Eric Stults, who has been solid in his 2 starts this year, with a 3.60 ERA. Eric has one start in this park vs LA and that was last year in a game in which he allowed just 1 ER in 6 innings of work. Chad has just 1 start on the year and it was at San Diego, in a game that he allowed just 1 ER in 6 innings of work. That now gives Chad an 0.98 ERA in his last 4 starts vs the Padres. Chad has struggled some in this park of late, but the Padres are hitting just .226 overall and .200 on the road and let's not that 3 of their road games were at Colorado and they scored just 6 runs in the 3 games set. They will not get that offense going in this much bigger park, so I really look for Chad to have a good showing tonight, Two inept offenses with good pitching on the mound in a pitchers park is a very good recipe for an under play. No more than 5 scored in this one.
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Washington/ Miami Under 7: I know eventually this Miami offense will put some runs on the board. I just hope its not tonight. The Miami offense is pathetic right now as they have averaged just 1.67 rpg and have hit a mere .199 on the year so far. Both are last in the league. During their first go round with the Nats they put up all of 1 run in the three games and it doesn't figure to get much easier tonight vs Jordan Zimmerman. Jordan is off to nice start as he is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA so far, with one of those wins coming vs Miami, in which he allowed just 1 ER in 6 innings. Jordan does have a 4.09 ERA in 9 career starts vs Miami, but just a 3.00 ERA in 2 starts here. In fact his road ERA (3.23) is better than his home ERA (3.64). He will not give up much in this one. Miami may not be able to hit, but their pitching has been good as they have a 3.71 ERA so far, which is good for 10th in the league. Wade Leblanc has pitched pretty well with a 3.27 ERA, but because his team has scored just 1.5 rpg for him he sits there with an 0-2 record. Washington's offense is ranked just 18th in scoring (3.83 rpg) and 20th in hitting (.243) and they did scored just 3.7 rpg in heir home series vs Miami. I just don't expect allot of runs in this one. Miami can't score and their pitching is pretty darn good, which should lead to another low scoring game here.
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Dallas at ChicagoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: DallasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Chicago Blackhawks are certainly free to coast their way through the rest of the regular season. They are four points ahead of the injury riddled Pittsburgh Penguins with one game in hand which means they are going to earn the No. 1 overall seed entering the Stanley Cup Playoffs. After a couple of terrific and satisfying wins against Detroit and St. Louis over the weekend, this has the makings of a major flat spot for the Blackhawks. They will be up against a Dallas Stars squad that is in all-out, desperation mode as they sit just two points back of the Red Wings for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.
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Dallas has won five straight games to get back into the playoff picture. And en route they’ve beat some of the West’s best teams including Anaheim, San Jose twice and the defending Stanley Cup champion Los Angeles Kings. The Stars have outscored their last five opponents by a combined mark of 20-9 and a win here would put that in that eighth and final spot. Dallas has lost both regular season meetings against Chicago but the situation is right and the rich underdog price is far too attractive to pass up.
Teddy Covers
Washington vs. Brooklyn
Pick: Washington
Don’t expect anything resembling the Nets ‘A’ game this evening. Brooklyn’s loss at Toronto yesterday locked them into the #4 seed in the East. Head coach PJ Carlesimo made it very clear following that loss that he’s more interested in resting his veterans than in going full throttle down the stretch.
“We don’t need to get anybody hurt. We’re not playing for anything. Going forward now we’ve certainly got to rest some people.”
The Nets have no shortage of guys who need rest. Gerald Wallace has sat their last two games, not expected to suit up tonight either. Deron Williams took a nasty knee yesterday, a likely candidate to sit this evening, although it hasn’t been ‘officially’ announced yet. Joe Johnson has been battling injuries as well, another potential ‘sitting in street clothes’ candidate; one of several other veterans who could sit this evening. I’d much rather be proactive than reactive when it comes to these potential absences for the Nets tonight – the line will move once Carlesimo announces his plans prior to tip-off.
The Wizards have lost four straight, and they, too, are an injury riddled mess as they approach the end of another long, lottery bound season. But Washington has one stated goal for 2013 that they’ve yet to accomplish – winning 30 games; an impressive accomplishment considering their 4-28 SU start to the season.
They’ve been sitting on 29 wins for the last nine days, falling short against Philly in their last try on Friday. Wizards guard Garrett Temple: “We set that (30 wins) as a goal about a month ago, month-and-a-half ago and we’re striving for that….We have two more games left and we definitely want to get to 30 wins." We don’t need the outright upset to cash this winning bet, but I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if we got it! Take Washington.
Jeff Alexander
Detroit Pistons -3
Philly has been terrible on the road all season (10-29) and we should see its road struggles continue given the tough scheduling spot it faces. This is its second game in as many days and its 5th in 7 days. The 76ers are a poor 6-15 ATS this season in the second game of a back-to-back. Looking back further, the Sixers are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games when playing without a day of rest. The Pistons have had the last two days off and this will be just their second game in five days, which is significant because they are 36-16 ATS the last three seasons when playing only their second game in five days. The Pistons are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games and should keep their backers cashing tonight.
Harry Bondi
CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+125) over Toronto
Lets back the White Sox as a decent size dog over former teammate Mark Buhrle tonight. White Sox starter Gavin Floyd won both of his starts against Toronto last year and Chicago has also won 6 of their last 8 against the Blue Jays. Toronto has been one of the biggest disappointment's in baseball so far and are still reeling from the loss of shortstop Jose Reyes. White Sox win tonight.
Joe Gavazzi
Chicago Bulls -3.5
This may be the healthiest Chicago has been in quite some time. Noah, Hamilton and Gibson will all return tonight as they look to create positive momentum for the Playoffs following their 1-4 SU slide. This victory will also assure them of yet another winning season on the road. Orlando presents the perfect victim. Unlike Chicago, Orlando figures to again be playing without Davis, Harrington, Afflalo and Nelson. Chicago has owned Orlando winning 8/9 recent games including 5 consecutive at this site. For Orlando, it has been a lost season with a recent record of 8-47, 2-14 and 1-6 SU. At home, they are just 12-28 SU and 8-20 ATS playing at home with revenge. They tossed the towel in their previous home game, 120-88 loss to Boston. Road teams are 32-10 ATS vs. April home teams following a home loss of 20 or more points. Look for the Bulls to regain their momentum as they head into the Playoffs.