Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, April 18,2011

Matt Fargo

San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs
Play on: Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are back home following a brutal nine-game early season roadtrip. They ended up 4-5 which is not horribly bad considering the three-city trip that started in Milwaukee and went to Houston and concluded in Colorado over the weekend. Chicago is 3-3 at home on the season and it will look to bounce back from a loss against the Rockies on Sunday. The Cubs have dropped back-to-back games only once all season as they are 6-1 this season following a loss as well as 18-4 in their last 22 games back to last season. San Diego continues its roadtrip following a four-game split in Houston over the weekend. The Padres are off to an identical 7-8 start as the Cubs following a Sunday win to salvage the split but they have been just the opposite of Chicago as they are 0-5 in their last five games following a win. San Diego has had a lot of success in Chicago as well as overall against the Cubs but the situation does not call for that to continue. Even though both teams are traveling, the Cubs have the edge with the home field.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens

The Bruins were a popular choice of many to come out of the Eastern Conference, but the way things are going now, it looks like it could be another early playoff exit. That said, we think the road team wins for the third straight game in this series as Boston is a strong 14-2 after having lost 4 or 5 of its previous six games while Montreal is a weak 7-14 playing at home when off back to back road wins.

Play on: Boston

Steve Merril

White Sox vs. Rays
Play: Under 7.5

For the 2nd time this season, the White Sox and Rays take the field against each other. The first series was won by Chicago 3-1 with three of those four games going Under the total. One of those Unders was a 5-1 White Sox win in a match-up between David Price and Edwin Jackson who meet on Monday night in Tampa Bay. Price is coming off a 3-2 win in Boston where he gave up 2 runs and five hits in 7.7 innings of work. He didn't pitch that badly against the White Sox in the first game; Price allowed 3 runs and nine hits in six innings. A.J. Pierzynski (2-8), Juan Pierre (2-9), Mark Teahen (0-5), Carlos Quentin (1-7) and Gordon Beckham (1-11) have struggled with the Rays’ starter. The White Sox offense is struggling right now as they are hitting just under .220 as a team while hitting .225 at night as well. The Rays’ bullpen has continued to be solid and they should be able to hold a lead if presented one. Edwin Jackson has enjoyed facing the Rays in his career. On April 7th, he gave up one run and four hits in eight innings after striking out 13 batters and walking only one. Jackson is 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA in three career starts against the Rays. The last time he pitched in Tampa, he threw a no-hitter walking eight while striking out six in a 1-0 win. Rays’ hitters are 22 for 115 (.191) against Jackson with Johnny Damon (8-42), Kelly Shoppach (2-13), Ben Zobrist (1-8) and B.J. Upton (1-5) among those struggling against the White Sox starter. The Rays have played 12 Unders in 15 games this season as they are hitting just over .220 on the year. This game should be a pitcher's duel so we expect a low-scoring game between the White Sox and Rays tonight.

Rocketman

Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers

Texas is 6-0 at home this year. Texas is 5-1 this year when playing at night. Texas is scoring 7 runs per game at home this season. Texas bullpen has a 3.03 ERA overall this year and a 3.31 ERA at home this season. C.J. Wilson is 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA at home this year. Angels are 5-14 in their last 19 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Angels are 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Rangers are 44-18 in their last 62 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Rangers are 17-4 in Wilsons last 21 home starts. Rangers are 20-6 in Wilsons last 26 starts as a favorite. Rangers are 27-11 in Wilsons last 38 starts. We'll recommend a small play on Texas tonight!

Rob Vinciletti

Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Atlanta Braves

The Dodgers fit a negative home dog system here tonight. What we want to do is play against home dogs that scored 4 or less run sin a home dog win vs an opponent that comes in off a home loss. The Braves have T. Hudson going tonight. Hudson has a solid 1.29 road era this season and has won 9 of 12 team starts vs the Dodgers. Tonight he opposes T. Lilly for the Dodgers. Lilly has a 4.41 era in his starts vs the Braves. In his home starts this season he has an elevated 7.71 era. When these two finally leave the game the Braves pitching edge widens. The Braves have a 1.71 road bullpen era compared to the Dodgers 6.93 home bullpen era. The Dodgers are 2-5 vs losing teams and have lost 7 of 9 vs right handers. They have struggled offensively scoring 3 or less in 3 straight games. Look for the Braves to take the opener.

EZWINNERS

Minnesota Twins -108

After a surprising 6-1 start to the season, the Baltimore Orioles have lost seven straight games. Their starting pitcher Chris Tillman has also been struggling as he gave up six runs on nine hits and one walk in 1 2/3 innings against the Yankees. The revamped Orioles lineup has not been producing offensively as they have only scored 17 total runs during this seven game losing streak. The Twins starting pitcher Francisco Lirano has also had his problems, but Lirano is still a tough lefty with very good stuff and I expect him to get on track against the struggling Orioles. The Twins are 11-4 in the last fifteen meetings between these two teams in Baltimore and I expect Minnesota's winning ways to continue. Play on the Twins.

Craig Trapp

Philadelphia vs. Miami
Play: Under 189.5

Game 2 of NBA playoff we always lean to under as both teams become even more familiar with opponents offensive sets. Neither one of these teams will be confused as great offensive teams, instead both can really guard the ball and shut down penetration. This one looks like another close game that will be played in the low 90's. Under is 12-5-1 head to head in the last 18 meetings. Under easy winner here.

Info Plays

3* Bulls -12

Reasons why Chicago will cover:

1) Indiana played as well as they could in game 1, but still managed to lose by 5 points. The Pacers shot just over 46% from the field. That won't happen again tonight. Chicago allowed just under 90 points a game at home this season, and are one of the best teams at preparing and taking away what the other team wants to do. On the other side of the ball the Pacers defense has no answer for Derek Rose, who got to the rim at will in game 1. Also look for the rest of the Bulls players to have a better game shooting, which should turn into an easy win. The Bulls beat the Pacers by 21 and 19 points in their two previous home games against the Pacers.

2) Chicago is 25-11 ATS off a home win this season, and 23-9 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.

3) Even with the cover in game 1, the Pacers are just 13-24 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Texas Rangers -141

Expect the Rangers to get back in the win column tonight at home, where they are a perfect 6-0 this season. Texas has dominated the Angels on its home turf, winning 7 of its last 10 and 13 of its last 19 in Arlington. The Rangers also have the edge on the hill with Wilson, considering they are 27-11 in his last 38 starts and 17-4 in last 21 home starts. Plus, the Angels are just 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Take Texas.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -140

The Padres won Sunday, but they are 0-5 in their last 5 games following a win. Plus, they haven't had much luck against Carlos Zambrano. The Chicago ace is 7-2 when starting against SD with an ERA of 2.37. The Cubs are 10-1 in Zambrano's last 11 starts and 7-0 in his last 7 starts versus a team with a losing record. Stauffer, who has come up empty handed in 2 career starts against Chicago, is just 1-4 on the money line in his last 5 starts versus a team with a losing mark. The Cubs’ resilience under manager Mike Quade can't be ignored. Consider that Chicago is 17-3 under the new skip following a loss. The Cubs are bouncing back to win by an average score of 5.0 to 2.7. We'll take the Cubs in this bounce back spot with Big Z on the bump.

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Indiana +13

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on Indiana:

So after their collapse in Game 1, do the Pacers have the "cojones" to play a full four quarters and shock the Bulls in Game 2?

I'm not ready to completely write Indiana off quite yet, and look for this team to keep this one close enough down the stretch to sneak in through the back door tonight.

The near win will surely give the pesky Pacers a large sense of optimism heading into Game 2.

In fact, Frank Vogel confidently stated that, "This is going to be a series," after the loss.

Indiana shot well overall as a team, but failed in slowing down Derrick Rose; doing that is easier said than done, but obviously if the Pacers have any shot at an upset they will have to do a much better job of this evening.

To say Indiana was frustrated with the amount of calls the slithery Rose got in Game 1 would be an understatement; "To get to the line 21 times showed his aggressiveness," Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau said of Rose. "He probably could be there a lot more times, too."

The Pacers converted 10 of 18 three-point attempts; "You can't close short," Thibodeau said. "We want to contain the ball better. We want to protect the paint. From there, you have to close out. You have to close hard to the line.

"We didn't do that. We gave them too much air space. They were getting clean looks, and they made [their shots]. [Darren] Collison and A.J. Price in the first half, they'd stop behind a screen and hit threes."

Bottom line: If the first weekend of NBA Playoff action taught us anything, it's that every team has a weakness; if not for a late collapse, Indiana would have been one of the many underdogs that not only covered the spread, but won straight-up.

Chicago was the stingiest defensive team in the league this year, but hardly looked it in Game 1; this spread is too large.

SPORTS WAGERS

San Diego +134 over CHICAGO

Carlos Zambrano is 2-0 in three starts but aside from the W/L record there’s nothing to like about him. The team he pitches for is average at best, the bullpen behind him is one of the weakest in the game and all of Zambrano’s other stats are screaming to stay away. In his three starts covering 18 innings, Zambrano has walked nine and struck out 13. That’s a concerning ratio and so is his groundball/fly-ball ratio of 32%/49%. Zambrano has an ERA of 6.11, a WHIP of 1.58 a BAA of .292 and he’s allowed three bombs already. Carlos Zambrano is not good anymore and he’s very unlikely to get any better. Tim Stauffer went 6-5 with a 1.85 ERA in 82 IP for the Padres last season. Former 1st rounder had huge year in spot starter role. His inflated strand rate helped ERA but xERA confirms he was good. Elite groundball profile last season of 55% has carried over into his three starts this season (54%). Stauffer has a ton of starting pitching upside and could be in the 15 win, 3.50 ERA range. Great price on the much better hurler. Play: San Diego +134 (Risking 2 units).

Toronto +118 over BOSTON

The upside that Daisuke Matsuzaka once showed in Japan is as far away as his homeland and the only reason he’s still getting the ball is because the Red Sox are paying him in excess of 10M this season. He only has handful of starts left before the Red Sox admit it was an expensive mistake and move on. Dice K’s decline began three years ago. His velocity is way down, his spring results were awful and his two starts to begin the season have been dreadful. In seven innings, covering those two starts, he’s allowed 14 hits, 10 earned runs, two jacks, he’s walked five and struck out four. He has a BAA of .412, an ERA of 12.86 and a off the charts WHIP of 2.71 and now he’s favored over Ricky Romero. To put this into perspective, if Romero was pitching for Boston and Matsuzaka was throwing for the Blue Jays, Boston would be about an enormous favorite in this game. In 22 innings this season, Romero has walked four and struck out 20. His WHIP of 0.92 and ERA of 1.66 is among the best in baseball. Although it’s early in the year, Romero has posted outstanding April numbers in his two previous years as a starter and all of his skills confirm it’s no fluke. Romero throws strikes, he has an outstanding groundball profile and no matter what the outcome is here, Romero and the Jays offer up huge value against a completely ineffective Dice K.. Play: Toronto +118 (Risking 2 units).

Minnesota +105 over BALTIMORE

The Twins are in the unfamiliar role of sitting in last place in the AL Central with a 5-10 record. Francisco Liriano is 0-3 with an ERA of 9.42 and when you combine the two, it doesn’t look good on paper but it also provides us with a great opportunity to buy low. Forget Liriano’s 2011 stats. Thus far he’s faced the Yanks, Jays and Royals and that trio ranks among the best in the league in all offensive categories. A combination of poor Twins defense and well placed singles by the Royals resulted in a six-run outburst in the fourth in which none of the hits went past an outfielder. Liriano walked just one batter in that game after walking eight in his first two starts. He’s not getting smacked around, he’s just uncharacteristically walked too many and he’s been very unlucky with a 43% strand rate. Over the last three years, Liriano’s groundball rate, strikeout rate and control have been at elite levels and there’s nothing to suggest that there’s going to be a dramatic drop off this season. Chris Tillman went 2-5 with a 5.87 ERA in 54 IP for the O’s last year. Righties smacked him to the tune of a .940 OPS and things have not improved early on this year. Baltimore's pitching has come back to earth. After giving up only four runs in their first four games, they've given up 61 in the last 10 (including seven straight losses) and they’ll come into this series with a spent bullpen. Play: Minnesota +105 (Risking 2 units). Play: Minnesota +105 (Risking 2 units).

*In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).

SPORTS WAGERS

BUFFALO -½ +136 over Philadelphia

These regulation plays in the playoffs are much more appealing than the regular season because teams are not playing for that single point. What we do know is that the Sabres have a big edge in net, they’re at home and the Flyers have a horrible history at this venue, where they have just six wins in the past 24 meetings here. Ryan Miller was not his stellar self in game two but he’s a big bounce-back candidate while the Flyers inconsistent play and goaltending is not. Remember, Philly and Chicago met in last year’s Stanley Cup Final that went well into June. They hit training camp in early September and when you put it all together that’s a ton of hockey in the span of less than a year and it has to take a toll. We’re seeing that with Chicago and the Flyers are not immune. The Sabres have not played their best hockey yet. They won game one and probably should’ve won game two. Now they’ll return home tied 1-1 with a chance to put a stranglehold on the series. Philly laboured down the stretch, laboured in games one and two, they continue to have uncertainty in net and they appear ripe to drop the next pair in upstate New York. Play: Buffalo -½ +136 (Risking 2 units).

David Chan

Detroit Red Wings @ Phoenix Coyotes
PICK: Detroit Red Wings

I bet value where I see it and believe the momentum that the Wings created in Games 1 and 2, will be carried over to Game 3 in Phoenix.

Pavel Datsyuk has been a Coyote killer so far; he has two goals and three assists over the first two games:

“He’s an all-world player, that’s for sure,” Phoenix coach Dave Tippett said. “We’ve tried a few different matchups against him that haven’t worked very well and we’ll keep trying until we find a solution.”

"It's disgusting," Phoenix defenseman Keith Yandle said of Datsyuk's dominating performance. "It's fun to watch him but not fun to play against him. He makes the game look easy, he's so good. It has to be a collective five-guy unit to take care of him. One or two guys, he's going to embarrass them."

Phoenix did battle back from a 4-0 deficit to make a game of it last time out, but needed three power-play goals to pull it off.

To make matters worse for the beleaguered Coyotes defense, they'll now have to deal with the losses of Derek Morris and Ed Jovanovski, who are both out with injury for tonight's game.

Great line value here; consider a second look at the Detroit Red Wings as they take a commanding hold of this series!