SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Chicago (0-1 SU and ATS) at Cleveland (1-0 SU and ATS)
The top-seeded Cavaliers look to take a 2-0 lead in this best-of-7, first-round series when they play host to the Bulls at Quicken Loans Arena.
In Saturday’s opener, Cleveland breezed to a 96-83 victory, narrowly cashing as an overwhelming 11½-point home favorite. The Cavaliers killed the Bulls on the boards, finishing with a 50-38 rebounding margin, and they held Chicago to just 42.5 percent shooting (37-for-87), while hitting 46.4 percent from the floor (39-for-84). LeBron James had 24 points to pace the Cavs, who despite winning fell well short of their season home average of 103.1 ppg. The win came on the heels of a 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS skid to end the regular season.
Chicago had its playoff-clinching 3-0 SU and ATS run halted in the Game 1 loss, and it was far off of its season road average of 96.6 ppg, primarily due to a 1-for-7 effort from three-point range (14.3 percent). Derrick Rose led all scorers with 28 points, to go with 10 assists.
The Cavs are now 36-6 SU at home this year, but remain just 17-25 ATS, while the Bulls are 17-25 SU on the road (22-20 ATS). Chicago is still 5-2 SU in its last seven on the highway and 7-2 ATS in the last nine as a visitor.
Cleveland is 4-3 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings in this rivalry, and the home squad is on a 19-8 ATS tear in the last 27 clashes. Mike Brown’s troops are also 11-3 ATS in the last 14 matchups at the Q, though the underdog is still 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings. Also, the SU winner is now 28-2 ATS in the last 30 head-to-head clashes between these Central Division rivals.
The Bulls are on ATS upswings of 12-6 overall, 7-2 on the road, 17-8-1 against Central Division rivals, 7-1 after a SU loss and 5-2 as an underdog, but they’re also now 1-4-1 ATS in their last six first-round playoff games and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
The Cavaliers are on ATS purges of 3-8 overall, 2-5 at home, 2-6 as a favorite and 2-5 after a day off. That said, Cleveland is also 13-3 ATS in its last 16 first-round playoff games (6-0 last six), 20-7-1 ATS in its last 27 outings as a playoff chalk and 25-11-1 ATS in its last 37 following a double-digit SU victory.
The over is on runs of 4-1 with Cleveland as a playoff chalk, 4-1 for the Cavs after a SU win and 9-3-1 for LeBron and Co. after a spread-cover, and the over is on a 7-1 stretch with Chicago catching points in the playoffs. However, the Cavs are on “under” rolls of 14-5-1 inside the Central Division and 4-0 in first-round playoff games, and the Bulls are on “under” surges of 7-2 overall (4-0 last four), 10-4 on the road, 11-3 against East Conference foes and 5-1 against winning teams.
Finally, Game 1 stayed under the total, making the under 5-1 in the last six meetings overall 9-4 in the last 13 clashes in Cleveland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Utah (0-1 SU and ATS) at Denver (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Nuggets will try to take a 2-0 series lead and hang onto home-court advantage when they host the Jazz inside the Pepsi Center in Game 2 of this best-of-7 first-round matchup.
Denver used a big fourth quarter to break open a tight Game 1 and score a 126-113 victory, easily cashing as a 5½-point home chalk. Leading by just two points entering the final stanza, the Nuggets outscored Utah 38-27 to close the game, as All-Star Carmelo Anthony led the way with 42 points and six Nuggets reached double figures in scoring. Both teams shot well with fourth-seeded Denver hitting 57.1 percent of its shots while the Jazz hit at a 54.7 percent clip. Utah lost center Mehmet Okur early in the contest to a torn Achilles and he’ll miss the remainder of the playoffs.
Utah is now 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS in its last seven games, including Wednesday’s season-ending 100-86 home loss to the Suns as a five-point favorite, a crushing defeat that cost the Jazz the No. 3 seed and home-court advantage in this series. Still, since Jan. 6 Jerry Sloan’s squad is on a 35-14 SU roll (31-15-3 ATS).
Even with Saturday’s easy victory, Denver has only split its last 14 contests, and it remains in a 5-11-1 ATS funk. The Nuggets have been playing without coach George Karl (cancer treatment) on the sidelines.
The Jazz are now 21-21 (23-18-1 ATS) on the highway for the season, while Denver is 35-7 inside the Pepsi Center, but a mediocre 21-20-1 ATS.
The Jazz were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs a season ago by the Lakers in five games (3-2 ATS). They’re in the postseason for the fourth consecutive year, but have lost four of their last six first-round series.
The Lakers also took out the Nuggets on their way to the NBA title, topping Denver in six games (3-3 ATS) in the Western Conference Finals. Prior to meeting Los Angeles, the Nuggets had won eight of 10 playoff contests in the first two rounds – eliminating New Orleans and Dallas – while going 10-0 ATS. This is Denver’s sixth consecutive playoff appearance after a nine-year drought from 1995-2003.
The Nuggets are now 4-1 against the Jazz this season (3-2 ATS), winning all three meetings in Denver by eight, seven and 13 points. The Nuggets have won six of the last eight clashes while going 7-0-2 ATS in the last nine. Also, the home team is 10-1 (6-3-2 ATS) in the last 11 matchups between these two, and the chalk is 24-10-3 in the last 37.
Utah is on ATS slides of 0-5 as an underdog, 3-15-1 as a road ‘dog of five to 10½ points and 2-7 on the road against teams with winning home records, but it is on several positive pointspread runs, including 31-15-3 overall, 17-9-1 on the road, 21-11-2 against the Western Conference, 26-11 on Monday and 24-8 after a straight-up loss.
In addition to their current 5-11-1 ATS slump, the Nuggets are on pointspread skids of 4-8 as a favorite, 1-4 on Monday, 1-6-1 after one day off and 4-15-4 after a spread-cover, but they are on ATS surges of 9-1 at home against teams with winning road records, 54-26-3 as a favorite of five to 10½ points and 5-0-2 against Northwest Division rivals.
The Jazz have topped the total in 21 of 28 against Northwest Division teams, 10 of 14 after a straight-up loss, nine of 13 on Monday and 31 of 47 as a road ‘dog. Conversely, Denver is on “under” streaks of 11-5 overall and 8-3 as a favorite, but it is on “over” pushes of 5-1 as a playoff favorite, 13-5 against teams with winning records and 5-1 as a playoff chalk.
In this rivalry, the over has cashed in five of six overall and six of seven in the Mile High City, with Game 1 easily clearing the 208-point total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Detroit (6-5) at L.A. Angeles (6-7)
The Tigers continue a season-long 11-game road trip when they send Dontrelle Willis (1-0, 4.91
ERA) to the mound for the opener of a four-game series against Joel Pineiro (1-1, 2.77) and the Angels at Angel Stadium.
Detroit salvaged a three-game weekend series in Seattle with Sunday’s 4-2 victory, snapping a three-game losing skid that followed a 5-1 run. Still, the Tigers are mired in a slew of slumps, including 3-5 on the road, 3-5 against the A.L. West, 3-10 in series openers and 26-60 as a road underdog.
The Angels got a tremendous pitching performance from Ervin Santana on Sunday and knocked off the Blue Jays 3-1 to sweep the three-game series in Toronto. Los Angeles has followed a 1-6 slump by winning three of its last four (all on the road). Mike Scioscia’s club is also on positive runs of 4-0 on Monday, 15-6 as a favorite and 38-18 against left-handed starters, but it has lost five of its last six home games.
The Tigers scored a rare season-series win over Los Angeles last year, taking five of nine meetings (3-4 on the road). Still, the Angels have won 47 of the last 68 battles overall and 35 of the last 52 matchups in Anaheim.
Willis faced Kansas City in his first two outings of the season, giving up two runs on seven hits in six innings of a 7-3 road win and four runs on nine hits (two homers) over five innings on Tuesday, getting a no-decision as the Tigers rallied for a 6-5 home victory. Detroit had lost four of Willis’ final five starts in 2009, and it is just is 2-6 in his last eight road outings (all as an underdog).
Willis’ only start against the Angels came on June 18, 2005, when he was with the Marlins and he scattered 10 hits and a walk in seven shutout innings, but the Angels rallied for a 2-1 interleague home win.
Pineiro has delivered back-to-back quality starts in his debut season with the Angels, following up a three-run, five-hit, six-inning effort against the Twins (10-1 home loss) with Wednesday’s one-run, five-hit, seven-inning performance against the Yankees (5-3 road win). Pineiro – whose first eight big-league seasons were in the American League (Seattle and Boston) – remains just 1-2 with a 5.27 ERA in nine career games (six starts) at Angel Stadium.
Pineiro is 6-2 with a 2.66 ERA in 11 lifetime appearances (nine starts) against Detroit, the most recent coming in an interleague game last June when he was with St. Louis. In that contest, Pineiro allowed four runs (one earned) in seven innings of a 6-3 home loss.
The under is 18-7-2 in Detroit’s last 26 games against A.L. West foes, but otherwise it is on “over” streaks of 5-2 overall, 6-3 on the road, 5-0 as a road underdog, 5-1 against right-handed starters, 7-0 on Monday and 4-1-1 in series openers. Also, the over is 3-1 in Willis’ last four starts overall and 6-2 in his last eight road efforts.
The over is 3-0-1 in the Angels’ last four series openers, but from there the Halos are on “under” runs of 35-15-3 overall, 12-3-1 against the Central Division, 3-1-2 on Monday and 14-6-1 versus lefty starters. Also, the under is 7-3 in Pineiro’s last 10 starts against Detroit going back to 2001.
Finally, the under is 12-5-1 in the last 18 Tigers-Angels clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and UNDER
DUNKEL INDEX
Chicago at Cleveland
The Bulls look to rebound from their loss in Game One and build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games following a SU loss. Chicago is the pick (+11) according to Dunkel, which has the Cavaliers favored by only 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+11)
Game 717-718: Chicago at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 119.664; Cleveland 125.150
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 5 1/2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 11; 191
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+11); Over
Game 719-720: Utah at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 116.324; Denver 124.904
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 8 1/2; 214
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 7; 212 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-7); Over
MLB
San Francisco at San Diego
The Giants look to build on their 7-1 record in their last 8 games as a favorite. San Francisco is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-135)
Game 901-902: Colorado at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 15.191; Washington (Stammen) 14.733
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-155); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-155); Under
Game 903-904: Chicago Cubs at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wells) 14.302; NY Mets (Niese) 14.741
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+105); Under
Game 905-906: St. Louis at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Penny) 15.068; Arizona (Lopez) 14.005
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-145); Under
Game 907-908: San Francisco at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 16.242; San Diego (Richard) 15.464
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-135); Over
Game 909-910: Tampa Bay at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 15.393; Boston (Lackey) 15.931
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-170); Under
Game 911-912: Kansas City at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Bannister) 15.170; Toronto (Morrow) 15.964
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-115); Under
Game 913-914: Detroit at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Willis) 15.444; LA Angels (Pineiro) 15.018
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-175); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+155); Over
Game 915-916: Baltimore at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Bergesen) 14.623; Seattle (Fister) 15.062
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-160); Over
NHL
Vancouver at Los Angeles
The Canucks look to rebound from their 3-2 OT loss in Game Two and build on their 6-0 record in their last 6 games after scoring 2 goals or less in the previous game. Vancouver is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Canucks favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (+100)
Game 17-18: Buffalo at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 12.636; Boston 12.422
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+120); Under
Game 19-20: Washington at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 11.446; Montreal 12.118
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-175); 6
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+155); Over
Game 21-22: Vancouver at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 11.945; Los Angeles 11.412
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-120); 5
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (+100); Over
Scott Spreitzer
Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels
We stated a while back that we couldn't wait until the holdover Angels and the newcomers got on the same page. The Toronto Blue Jays were in the wrong place at the wrong time as the Halos, new and old came together at Rogers Centre, sweeping the Jays on the road for the first time since 2004. Mike Sciocia said he wanted at least three solid starts from his rotation before the series began, and he got just that, including a complete game from Ervin Santana on Sunday. Tonight, Joel Pineiro will take the bump, backed by a well-rested bullpen, if needed. The groundball pitcher is off to a solid start in Anaheim and I expect him to have little trouble against Detroit. The Tigers counter with Dontrelle Willis, who has not performed well. I will be surprised if Willis is still in the Tiger rotation by June unless things turn around quickly. The "D-Train" hasn't pitched to his early form in a few years, and he should offer little more than batting practice against the Angels. The Tigers are 2-6 in his last eight road starts, while the Angels are on a 47-21 run against Detroit. I'm laying the price with the Angels on Monday. Good Luck, Scott Spreitzer.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Kansas City Royals
We’ll back the Royals behind Bannister here today. KC is quietly off to a very good offensive start, hitting .301 as a team. And today’s starter Bannister has allowed just three earned runs over 12 1/3 innings this season. Toronto isn’t so hot at the plate right now, hitting .230 as a team and send out Morrow, who was lit up for 12 runs over 9 innings in his first two starts. Wrong team is favored!
Matt Fargo
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
Many will be jumping on Boston here for two main reasons. One, the Red Sox have lost four straight games and are looking to avoid the home sweep at the hands of the Rays. Second, it is Patriot’s Day and Boston never loses on Patriot’s Day, or at least it hasn’t in the last six years. Don’t you worry, the linesmakers have already taken this onto consideration as you can definitely tell by the line. Tampa Bay is looking for its seventh straight win which would mean a perfect roadtrip. With Sunday’s win, the Rays have won three of the last five series in Fenway Park after losing 25 straight. Jeff Niemann gets the call for the Rays and there was some concern going into his last start. He was hit with a line drive in the right shoulder in his opener this season and came out but it ended up being just a bruise. He came back and tossed a quality start last time out which was no surprise as Niemann went 13-6 with a 3.94 ERA in 31 games, including 30 starts, last season. He had one very rough outing against the Red Sox and there is no doubt he will be ready for some payback. John Lackey is two-for-two in quality starts this season so he is definitely off to a great start with his new club. While Niemann was bad in his lone start against Boston last season, Lackey was even worse as he allowed nine runs on 11 hits in five innings. 3* Tampa Bay Rays
Steve Merril
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals +1.5
The Nationals begin a series at home with the Colorado Rockies after taking two of three from the Milwaukee Brewers. Washington starting pitcher Craig Stammen is glad to see that the Phillies are not his opponent for the third straight time. Stammen's numbers are bloated because he had to pitch against that potent Philadelphia lineup twice. He faced the Rockies twice last year, giving up just three runs in 12.3 innings of work combined in those outings. Chris Ianetta (0-5), Troy Tulowitzki (0-5), Carlos Gonzalez (0-5), Dexter Fowler (1-5) and Brad Hawpe (1-4) have struggled against the righty. And since Colorado's offense isn’t as reliable on the road like they are at home, Stammen should pitch his best game of the young season tonight. Aaron Cook makes the start for the Rockies and he's 0-1 with a 5.56 ERA on the season. Cook took the loss in a 5-4 loss in Milwaukee last Wednesday afternoon. He hasn't faced the Nationals since 2008, but he went just 1-1 against them in those two outings. This is a different Nationals team that is much better offensively. They have scored 34 runs in their last five games and have done so against some pretty good pitchers. Washington is also hitting close to .300 at home, and we expect them to bounce back strong tonight after losing on Sunday afternoon.
Rob Vinciletti
St Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: St Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals fit a tight system here tonight, that plays on road favorites that were a home favorite of -200 or more in their previous game, vs certain opponents that are off a road loss and scored 4 or less runs on 10+ hits. The Cardinals are off a come back win vs the Mets last night as a heavy favorite, while Arizona lost 5-3 on the road vs the Padres. St.Louis has a nice pitching edge here as well. They send B.Penny to the hill and he has been lights out this year in his early outings allowing just 1 earned run in 14 innings of work. Even better is his record vs Arizona. Penny is 9-3 with a solid 1.96 era vs the Diamondbacks. In his last start vs Arizona he went the distance without allowing any earned runs. Arizona has R.Lopez going tonight and he has struggled in 3 career starts vs the Cardinals with a 6.35 era. Look for the Cardinals to take game 1 here tonight.
DAVID CHAN
Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Seattle Mariners
Neither of these pitchers is a stud, but at least Fister seems to be ready to play baseball. Bergesen has shuffled through 7.2 IP, coughing up 15 hits and three walks while fanning only five. Bergesen’s ERA is 11.74 while his WHIP is 2.35 on the young season. His work has come against an above average offense in Tampa, and against Toronto—an above average offense so far because it’s gotten to feast on Oriole pitching.
Fister is making the best case he can to not be the man bumped from the rotation on Cliff Lee’s debut. He’s not a strikeout artist (six K in 12 IP) but he’s only walked three batters so far, so at least he isn’t beating himself.
Baltimore is dealing with injuries to leadoff man Brian Roberts, and his first-choice replacement in Felix Pie. Nolan Reimold and Miguel Tejada are playing hurt, and the offense has suffered. Until Baltimore gets healthy, it’s oppose them or nothing.
JIM FEIST
COLORADO ROCKIES / WASHINGTON NATIONALS
TAKE: WASHINGTON NATIONALS
The Nationals are hot with the bats, too bad their pitching is its usual bad self these days. Washington tallied a season-high 16 hits on Sunday in a losing effort to the Brewers, 11-7. The Nationals have also scored seven or more runs in four of their last five games. I'm going to take a shot here on Monday with the Nationals. I expect this contest to possibly come down to the team with the last at bat, and that's Washington. The Rockies relief pitching is hurting with Houston Street out with an injury. The closer duties have fallen to Franklin Morales who has blown two of four opportunities thus far. I don't expect either starting pitcher to last long in this one and basically it will become a battle of the pens. I look for Washington to finally snap their long losing streak here on Monday to the Rockies. Take Washington as a nice home dog.
EZWINNERS
Boston Red Sox -169
Boston's starting pitcher John Lackey is 9-2 lifetime against the Rays with a 3.07 ERA. Lackey has turned in two strong outings so far this season for the Red Sox that included a very good start against the loaded Yankees lineup. Jeff Niemann gets the start for the Rays and this is his first start at Fenway Park. Jeff Niemann is a decent pitcher, but I expect him to give up a few runs against the Red Sox lineup and that should be all it takes for John Lackey to get the win. This is a big game for the Sox as they try to avoid the four game sweep at home by the Rays. The Rays are only 2-6 in Niemann's last eight road starts and I like the Sox to end their losing streak today. Lay the chalk with Boston.
Marc Lawrence
St. Louis at Arizona
Play: St. Louis
The Cardinals pay a three game visit to the Diamondbacks when they send Brad Penny to the mound against Rodrigo Lopez tonight in Arizona. Penny has hurled well in his MLB career against the D'Backs, winning 11 of his 16 team starts, including a 2-0 mark with a 1.20 ERA his last tow starts in this park. On the flip side, Lopez is just 1-2 with a 6.87 ERA in his career starts against the Red Birds. Look for more of the same here this evening.
JR O'Donnell
BOS / BUF Under 5
The last time these 2 NHL teams met they put up a "8" spot as the Boston Bruins win and even the series at one game a piece. Our camp feels that the public will go Over in this battle Monday, not Jr. The Bruins have only allowed 200 goals this year and the opposition has trouble scoring in Boston. The Under is 9-2-1 in the Sabres last 12 games as an underdog and the Under is also on a 70% run in the Bruins last 20+ home games.
James Patrick Sports
Royals vs. Blue Jays
Kansas City is (7-19) in their past (26) games with Toronto and the Blue Jays got a lesson in fundamental baseball this past weekend from the Los Angeles Angels. We look for the Blue Birds to bounce back at home after such a rough weekend. Big Game James Patrick's Monday Major League Baseball selection is Toronto Blue Jays.
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the Tampa Bay Rays to continue their dominance of Boston. Already in this early portion of the season the Rays have taken the first three vs. Boston, including Sunday's 7-1 drubbing. Last season the Rays weren't nearly as good as they were the year before, yet they still managed to take 9 of 18 games vs. the Red Sox and it appears they are on pace to better that mark this season. Tampa is already rolling early on overall, winning 9 of their first 12 games and they're a perfect 6-0 on the road. Look out Yankees... I know it's early but the Rays appear to be on a mission and not only are they hitting the cover off the ball, they're getting really good starting pitching. Boston is now 4-8 to start the season and have won just one game so far this year vs. the Yankees and Tampa Bay. Not a good sign when you need to be able to beat teams in your own division (because you play them more than anyone else in baseball). Pitching matchups mean nothing to me here... I like Tampa until Boston proves me wrong. Take the Rays + the moneyline number as your free play of the day.
2♦ TAMPA BAY
Karl Garrett
Utah at DENVER (-7)
Free play winner on the Hawks on Satruday, and the underdog Rays on Sunday. Now 13-5 the last 18 days with my comp plays.
For Monday night, lay the points with the Nuggets at home against the Jazzmen.
Denver used a big 4th quarter on Saturday to pull away for the double-digit win, and cover against a banged up Utah team, and I see no reason to believe a change is in store for Game Two tonight.
The Nuggets have clearly established the upper-hand against the Jazz, as Denver has now won 5 of the last 6 series meetings straight up, and they are on a 7-0-2 spread run the last 9 times they have faced the Jazz.
Hard to argue against those numbers, so don't.
Take the Nuggs minus the points in Game Two.
4♦ DENVER