Bobby Maxwell
St. Louis at ARIZONA (+125)
My FREE play run sits at 83-60-3 with a comp winner coming tonight on the diamond as I go with the plus-money Diamondbacks taking on the Cardinals in Phoenix.
Tough spot to put the Cardinals in tonight as they have got to be fatigued coming into Phoenix. I’ll gladly take the plus-money with Arizona in this one.
St. Louis played that 20-inning marathon on Saturday night and lost, then had to play the late game on Sunday, fly to Arizona and now suit up against the D’Backs and Rodrigo Lopez (1-0, 4.09 ERA). There’s going to be some tired legs in the St. Louis lineup while Arizona played the afternoon game in San Diego and made the short trek back home to Phoenix.
Arizona has won both of Lopez’s starts this season, including his opener against Pittsburgh when he allowed just one run over six innings of an easy 9-1 victory. He pitched in Los Angeles on Wednesday and allowed four earned runs over five innings, but his offense rallied to win 9-7. Last year, as a Phillies’ starter, Lopez faced these Cardinals in July and allowed three earned runs over six innings of a 14-6 Philadelphia victory.
Brad Penny goes for the Cardinals and he has looked very sharp to this point, allowing a combined two runs on nine hits over 14 innings in a 2-1 win over Houston and 2-1 loss to the Reds. He’s been mediocre against the D’Backs in his career, pitching a gem last year with the Giants but just average as a Dodgers’ starter in 2006 and 2007.
St. Louis hasn’t had much success in the Arizona desert, going just 3-9 in their last 12 games in Phoenix. They are also just 2-5 on the road against teams with losing records and 0-4 against N.L. West teams. The D’Backs are 6-2 in their last eight at home and 5-1 against right-handers.
I’m grabbing the plus-money with the D’Backs tonight as they take advantage against a tired Cardinals’ squad.
3♦ ARIZONA
MTi Sports
Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets
Prediction: Under
The Jazz are 0-9 OU (-19.1 ppg) as a dog with at most one day of rest after a game in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two and 0-6 OU (-14.8 ppg) on the road after a game in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Nuggets are 0-7 OU (-13.1 ppg) as a home favorite with at most one day of rest after a game in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two. Finally, since the 2006 playoffs, the League is 0-9 OU (-12.3 ppg) as a dog after a loss in which they allowed a shooting percentage at least 10 percentage points higher than their season-to-date average. Take these two UNDER.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -147
I know Washington has been playing pretty well, winning 3 of its last 4, but I'll back the better team with the better pitcher on the mound at a decent price tonight. The Nationals are a team that the Rockies have completely owned. In fact, Colorado has won 22 of the last 28 meetings, including 6 in a row at Washington. Washington is one of the worst bounce back teams in the bigs. The Nats are just 34-74 after a loss over the last 2 seasons. Looking back further, they are just 41-108 in their last 149 games following a loss. The Nats are also awful in the first game of a series. In fact, they are 14-44 in their last 58 during game 1 of a series. The Rockies are 7-3 in Aaron Cook's last 10 road starts and 5-1 in his last 6 starts during game 1 of a series. The Nats' Craig Stammen is off to a rocky start with an ERA of 15.64 this season. Cash in with Colorado.
Frank Jordan
Detroit Tigers vs. LAA Angels
Play: Under 9.5
Both starting pitchers, Dontrelle Willis and Joel Pineiro, are at .500 as Willis is 0-0 and Pineiro 1-1. With their era's Willis' just under 5 and Pineiro's under 3 this should end up being quite the pitchers duel. Look for a medium to low scoring game of like 4-3 or 5-4. Play the Under
BIG AL
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Over 8.5
It is bad news for the rest of the teams in the AL East that something seems to have woken up the Tampa Bay bats. Perhaps they just needed to get out of sunny Florida? After starting the season rather sluggishly and only scoring 24 runs in their first six games (all at home) and going 3-3 in the process, the Rays have now scored 38 runs in their next six games (all on the road) and have won each of those to bring their record to 9-3. This is the annual Patriots' Day game, the Red Sox contest that is held every year on the same Monday in which the state celebrates that holiday and on which day the Boston Marathon is also contested. Since 1968, the Patriots' Day game has started at 11:00am, and this early start generally favors the hitters over the pitchers. Apparently it's the pitchers that want to sleep in and aren't quite ready to perform this early in the morning, as in the last four seasons this game has seen an average of 12 runs per game scored, including last season's 12-1 victory by the Sox over the Orioles. Big righthanders Jeff Neimann and John Lackey take the mound in the 2010 version, and although Lackey is off to a strong start to the season, his career ERA at Fenway Park is still pretty scary. Neimann has never pitched there before, but his only other career start against Boston was very ugly. Take the 'over.'
SPORTS WAGERS
Utah/DENVER Under 213
The first game sailed over the total of 208 and now in game two and as a result of game one, the total has been inflated. There’s not a better coach in the league in preparing his players than Utah’s Jerry Sloan. He’s a wizard in adjustments and with the loss of Kirilenko and now Okur, Sloan knows he has to completely slow this game down if the Jazz has any shot of pulling the upset. Denver loves to run and gun and they sure are tough when they’re hitting those shots and draining the triples. However, both these teams shot a very high FG% in game one (57.1 and 54.7) and chances are strong they won’t come close to duplicating that here. Game two of every series is all about adjustments and more times than not, what happens in game one does not repeat itself in game two. Jazz come out and slows this thing right down because they know they’re not going to outscore the Nuggets in a run and gun style. They need to work the ball and the shot clock, which in turn allows them to set up its defense when they do miss, as oppose to quick shots, which lead to quick breaks the other way. Play: under 213 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Kansas City +1.02 over TORONTO (1st 5 innings)
The Royals pen is a mess while the Jays pen is rock solid and thus, there’s not a single reason to play this for the full game. Almost everyone agrees that Brandon Morrow has all the potential in the world but this isn’t Safeco Field. Yeah, he’s shown flashes but his confidence has to be shattered after getting rocked by both the Orioles and White Sox, two teams that are barely hitting above the Mendoza line. Morrow has also allowed three jacks in nine frames, walked six and has allowed 12 earned runs. Furthermore, the Royals have a big edge with their bats, as their hitting .309 while the Jays are hitting a measly .223. K.C. finds itself among the AL team leaders in runs scored, HR’s and stolen bases, thanks to hot starts by almost everyone in the Royal line-up. If the Royals get to Morrow, they’re going to get to him early. Brian Bannister has only walked two batters in 12.2 innings and allowed one home run. The Jays offense has relied solely on the long ball and walks to generate anything and that’s a tough way to win ball games. Bannister can usually be counted on for five solid innings, as he has done so both times this year and many other times in the past. Play: Kansas City in the first five innings +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
LOS ANGELES +1.01 over Vancouver
The playoffs are a completely different story than the regular season but the Canucks were still rather weak on the road all year and the Kings played this team nose to nose in Vancouver. Now the series shifts to Los Angeles, where there hasn’t been a playoff hockey game in eight long years. The building will be electric but the real difference is the Kings defense, which has shown great ability to move the puck crisply and efficiently out of its own zone. The Kings could just as easily be up 2-0 here and while they were outplayed in game one, they sure responded in game two with a solid effort from top to bottom. This one is close but the Kings have momentum, they’re getting great goaltending from Jonathan Quick while Roberto Luongo looks like he could be a bit fragile these days. No edge to the Canucks at all. Play: Los Angeles +1.01 (Risking 2 units).
EVAN ALTEMUS
Chicago at NY Mets
Play: Chicago -122
Both of these teams are not hitting the ball well right now, but Cubs manager Lou Pinella is going to make a change to tonight’s line-up. He is going to move Marlon Byrd to the lead-off position and switch Ryan Theriot to the 8th spot because of his struggles. It’s hard to tell if this change is going to work, but the Cubs have a great starting pitching advantage in tonight’s game to aid them. Randy Wells gets the start for Chicago, and he has pitched well on the road over the last few seasons, especially away from Wrigley Field. Meanwhile, Mets starter Jonathan Niese has not pitched well this season and has been erratic. He has allowed 17 hits and 8 runs in his first 2 starts, including an very average 5/3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Chicago is hitting .267 against lefties this season, almost 20 points better than against righties. Look for the Cubs to get the win with a good pitching effort by Wells, while their offense might improve slightly with the line-up change.
Teddy Covers
Chicago @ New York
The struggling Mets offense can’t hit their way out of a wet paper bag these days. Five of their eight positional starters last night are hitting .220 or lower. New York produced three runs or less in all three games of their just concluded series at St Louis. They were also held to three runs or less in three of their last four games at Citi Field; shut down by the likes of second tier hurlers like John Lannan, Livan Hernandez, Nate Robertson and Jamie Garcia during this span.
Don’t expect the Mets offense to come alive today against Randy Wells. Wells shut the Mets down in his lone appearance here last year, allowing a single earned run in six innings of work in a 4-2 ballgame that stayed well Under the total. In his lone previous road start this season, Wells threw six innings of shutout ball against Atlanta, getting the 2-0 victory, another Under cash.
Mets rookie southpaw Jonathan Niese struggled in the Mile High air of Coors Field in his last outing, not unusual for young pitchers. But the young lefty is poised for a bounceback showing here against a Chicago lineup that is hitting a truly woeful .125 against lefties on the road this year. Chicago is averaging just three runs per game on the highway, and they were held to just five runs in their last two games at Wrigley over the weekend. Don’t expect fireworks here – this has all the makings of a low scoring pitcher’s duel.
Take the Under
LT PROFITS
Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cleveland Cavaliers took Game 1 of this series vs. the Chicago Bulls 96-83, and while there is a high likelihood that they will be up 2-0 after tonight, we do expect a more competitive game with the Bulls hanging within single-digits.
The Cavaliers jumped out to a 22-point lead in the first half Saturday, but truth be told, the game got very sloppy the last two and a half quarters, as Chicago could not make a shot and Cleveland finished with 18 turnovers, and there were long scoring droughts for both teams in the second half.
If the Bulls do not get blown out early again in Game 2, we see no reason why they cannot stay relatively close the rest of the way. After all, Chicago was not a bad road team this season, and even if we include Game 1, they are still 22-20 against the spread away from home while getting outscored by -4.2 points per game, well inside this big number.
The Bulls did win some big games on the road down the stretch just to make the playoffs, as they went 7-1 ATS in their last eight regular season road games. They also stepped up the defense in the second half of the series opener, and they have still allowed less than 100 points in seven of their last nine games.
Now there is no doubt that the Cavaliers are the better team here, but remember that their Game 1 cover still leaves Cleveland at just 17-25 ATS at home on the year, and while they are 36-6 in Quicken Loans Arena straight up, their average winning margin in those contests of +9.0 points would not be good enough to cover this spread. The Cavs also have a bad habit of relaxing when they get a big lead, which was evident in the opener, and that always leaves the backdoor open.
While we do expect a fairly close game throughout tonight with Chicago playing in desperation mode, it is also encouraging to know that they should be able to chip away at the lead late should Cleveland go up by double-digits.
Pick: Bulls +10.5
Tom Freese
San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
San Francisco starter Matt Cain is 17-5 his last 22 off a Giants loss. The Giants are 6-0 off a loss and they are 14-5 their last 19 games. San Francisco is 7-1 their last 8 games as favorites. They are also 7-3 their last 19 games vs. NL West teams. The Giants are 8-2 in the last 10 starts made by Cain after scoring 2 runs or less in their last game. San Diego starter Clayton Richard has allowed 9 runs in 12 innings of work this year. San Diego is 12-39 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of less than 1.15. The Padres are 2-6 off a win. San Diego is 7-20 at home their last 27 games as underdogs of +110 to +150. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO
Craig Trapp
Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Denver Nuggets -7
Maybe the most impressive win of game one's were the amazing 2nd half shooting performance of DEN! The Nuggets have been banged up for the last two months but now look to be healthy and very dangerous. UTAH on the other hand lose Okur for the season with an achilles injury. That just adds to the long list of banged up Jazz players. Denver won three of four head to head this year all by seven or more. Look for another daylight winner as the Jazz are just down too many quality players to give the Nuggets a run in Denver!
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -123
Bottom Line: San Diego is playing well, but it has its work cut out for itself against one of the best young right handers in the game tonight. Cain has especially been sharp when taking the mound following a team loss in the Giants' previous game. In fact, the Giants are 17-5 in Cain's last 22 starts following a team loss in their previous game. And as a team, the Giants are 6-0 in their last 6 games following a loss. The Giants are also 7-1 in their last 8 games as a favorite. Take the Giants at a solid price tonight.
Jack Jones
Toronto Blue Jays -114
Good value here with the Toronto Blue Jays at home against the Kansas City Royals. The only reason the Royals are getting so much respect from the books here is due to Brian Bannister's hot start, but it won't last. Bannister is just 8-26 against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. Toronto is a superb 21-8 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
This play also falls under a system that is 55-28 (66%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against any team (KANSAS CITY) - with a terrible bullpen whose ERA is 5.50 or worse on the season, with a team on base percentage of .350 or better on the season (AL). Bannister's solid start comes to an end tonight against the Blue Jays and a motivated Brandon Morrow as their starter. Take Toronto.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Kansas City Royals +107
The Royals are showing good value behind Bannister tonight. The Jays have come back down to reality after a fast start, and it figures to get no easier for them tonight against a dialed in Bannister who boasts a 2.19 ERA and a 0.973 WHIP this season. To make matter worse, the Jays are not in good hands with Morrow on the hill for them. He enters tonight's game with a 12.00 ERA and a 2.000 WHIP. Plus, the Royals shelled Morrow the only time he's faced them. Take the Royals.
Nelly
San Diego + over San Francisco
The home team won 13 of 18 meetings between these teams last season with San Diego going 6-0 at home in the two early season series. The Giants got off to a red hot start to the season but the team appears to be falling back to earth with losses in three of the last five games. San Diego swept Arizona at home over the weekend and in six home games this season the Padres are 4-2, out-scoring foes 36-20. The Giants are hitting .285 for the season but just .218 in road games against left-handed pitching. Two veteran hitters could be out of the lineup with Aaron Rowand recently placed on the DL and Mark DeRosa battling a tight hamstring. The Giants are just 3-10 in the last 13 games against San Diego with Matt Cain starting and after a 14-8 campaign in 2009 Cain appears to be overvalued. While Cain has been a quality pitcher his estimated ERA was over a point higher than his actual ERA last season. Cain had the third lowest BABIP average of regular NL starters and already this season it looks like his number are going to bounce upward. Cain has allowed seven runs in his two starts this season, yet to take a decision and lacking the dominance he had at times last year. Clayton Richard has very similar numbers through two starts and he has pitched much better than his 0-2 record indicates. Richard has nine strikeouts and he is yet to allow a home run. He has delivered excellent results since moving the NL mid-season last year and he pitched well in his lone start versus San Francisco last year. The Giants have been a problematic road team and there has been limited success for San Francisco in this venue. The hot start for the Giants has caught up with very poor line value and San Diego makes for an attractive underdog selection Monday.