Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday April, 2

Rob Vinciletti

Rockets vs. Bulls
Play: Over 187

This game fits a system that has played over the last 10 times the past 3 years. We want to play on home favorites with no rest that scored 80 or less as road dogs of 5 or more. Chicago falls into this situation tonight. These games have averaged 209 points. Houston has played over in 3 of 4 on the road when the total is 185 to 190 and 2 of 3 vs Central division teams. The Bulls have gone over in 2 of their last 3 home games and in the series between these two, 20 of the past 28 have gone over the total. Look for these two to fly over once again.

Jim Feist

Houston Rockets vs Chicago Bulls
Pick: Chicago Bulls

The Bulls may have the best record in the NBA, but they received a dose in humility on Sunday at the hands of the best of the West, Oklahoma City. The Thunder pounded the Bulls, 92-78 in a game that wasn't even as close as the final score. The Bulls once again played without star guard Derrick Rose but have still done well without the All-Star, going 14-6 during his absence. The Rockets have been a good team at home and poor on the road. They are 9-15 ATS away and 18-9 ATS at home this season. Moreover, the Rockets have covered just two of their last 11 road games. Both teams are hindered by the back-to-back spot here on Monday with Chicago playing at OKC on Sunday and Houston at home against Indiana. I like the Bulls to bounce back here Monday against a team that struggles to cover on the road. The Bulls aren't the best in the NBA for nothing and they will show how resilient they can be on Monday. Take the Bulls.

Bryan Power

Washington Capitals @ Tampa Bay Lightning
PICK: Tampa Bay Lightning

The always underachieving Caps currently hold the coveted eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference entering Monday's light card and will try and build on their two point lead over ninth place (and idle) Buffalo when they visit division rival Tampa Bay. There are actually two spots still up for grabs in the East with the Southeast Division yet to be clinched. Washington currently trails Florida by three points there. The division winner will be the three seed while whomever finishes second will have to hold off the Sabres for the final spot. Washington hosts Florida Thursday night in the home finale. Meanwhile, this is the home finale for the Lightning, who are eliminated from playoff contention. This is the sixth and final meeting between these division rivals this season and the home team has won each of the previous five this season, all by one goal. The previous meeting was won by Washington last month by a score of 3-2. Knowing that Tampa Bay is 15-7 at home seeking revenge for a road loss & Washington is just 9-16 L25 division road games, and with the fact that the Caps always seem to choke when it counts most, I'm taking the small home dog Monday night.

Dave Cokin

Houston Rockets vs Chicago Bulls
Pick: Chicago Bulls

The Bulls don't lose much to begin with, but when they do, it's wise to consider them in their next outing. Chicago is 11-0 off a loss, including a robust 8-3 ATS. Houston is off the Sunday OT loss, and could get crushed here. I'll spot the points with the Bulls.

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

Kentucky -6 over Kansas: Ive been with Kentucky for much of this tourney and I won't stop now. They are the better team that is loaded with next-level talent throughout the lineup - even on the bench. The Cats have pretty much rolled through the tourney so far and even though they won by just 8 over Louisville in their last game, it was a game that wasn't as close as the final would indicate. The Cats were in total control for much of that game and even though the Cardinals made a run you never felt that Kentucky was gonna lose it. This team gets a ton of credit for their offense and it should as they have averaged 77.6 ppg on 49% shooting overall, including 84.2 ppg on 53.7% shooting in the tourney, but this defense also deserves some credit. The Cats have allowed 71.6 ppg on 41.6 % shooting in the tourney, but for the year this team has allowed 60.6 ppg on just 37.4% shooting, which is tops in the Nation. Tonight they take on a Kansas team that has played great defense in the tourney, allowing 59.2 ppg, but a team that has struggled on offense in the 5 games so far. For the year the Jayhawks have averaged 73.9 ppg on 47.5% shooting, but in the tourney they have put up just 66.4 ppg on 41.4 % shooting. I do not thinks that's going to get it done vs this Kentucky team that can score in bunches and they will tonight. I don't feel the Jayhawks will have enough defense or nearly enough offense to keep this one close. The Cats are focused and should have no problems tonight with an easy DD win here. |

SPORTS WAGERS

Kentucky -6 over Kansas

There is little doubt that the Wildcats are the best team in the country. They have several future NBA lottery picks on the roster and they’ve shown how dominant they can be in every game of this event. Kansas is obviously talented as well, just not to Kentucky’s level. The Jayhawks are sound, rarely beating themselves. With that said, we know that Kentucky is capable of blowing out Kansas, just like Ohio State was on the verge of doing. The Buckeyes don’t have the killer instinct that the Wildcats have. The Jayhawks are not capable of blowing out Kentucky. In that regard, we would much rather have our money riding on the superior team with the lead than the Jayhawks attempting to claw their way back in. It’s been said many times over that basketball is a game of matchups. In this instance, it’s about a team that is not going to be stopped by an inferior opponent on the biggest college basketball stage there is. Kentucky will win this game and more than likely by a comfortable margin for the majority of this final. Play: Kentucky -6 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

TAMPA BAY +115 over Washington

Washington is coming of a 3-2 OT win at home Saturday night over the Montreal Canadiens. Woo hoo! Washington blew a 2-0 lead, were outshot 41-33 and once again proved they are not to be feared. The Capitals have still lost five of their past nine games during the most crucial stretch of the season. As it stands right now, the Caps are two points up on the Sabres for the final playoff spot and they can decide their own fate with just three games remaining. A win by the Caps here puts them four points up and really solidifies their position. For a Lightning squad whose season ends this week, this becomes something for them to focus upon. They know what’s at stake for the Capitals and they’ll give it everything they have in an attempt to make life difficult for this hated division rival. Washington has bailed like that Italian cruise ship captain every time they’ve had an opportunity to put a stranglehold on that final playoff spot. Against Buffalo last week they lost 5-1. In a huge game just prior to that one, they lost to the Jets for the second time in a week. The Capitals might get in to the post-season but not because of their strong play. They’ll get in because the Jets and Sabres couldn’t close it out either and that’s not the type of club we want to be laying road juice with. Play: Tampa Bay +115 (Risking 2 units).

Pass NBA

David Banks

Kansas / Kentucky Under 137

The 2011-12 national champions will be crowned on the college hardwood Monday night when the #2 Kansas Jayhawks (32-6, 19-17-1 ATS) and #1 Kentucky Wildcats (37-2. 15-22-1 ATS) collide against one another in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome for the second time this season; tune to CBS at 9:23 ET to take this one in live!

The Jayhawks are simply playing with house money right now as they head into the title game of the 2012 tourney. Not much was expected of Head Coach Bill Self's kids this season, as it was expected to be a rebuilding year in Lawrence after so much talent from last year's team bolted for the NBA. Still, Kansas went out and won the Big 12 regular season title for the eighth straight season, and parlayed that into this exceptional run in the NCAA tournament. They survived a scare in the second round against what turned out to be a game Purdue squad, and then took care of both Carolina schools (NCST/UNC) to head back to the Final 4 for the 14th time in the program's history and first since they won it all back in 2008. KU struggled mightily throughout the first half with Ohio State, but Coach Self once again proved just how tremendous an in-game coach he is by making necessary adjustments that had the Buckeyes off kilter throughout the final 20 minutes of play. When it was said and done, Kansas pulled out the 64-62 outright win and punched its ticket to the title game for the sixth overall time; KU's 8-4 SU & 5-7 ATS on neutral courts (1-2 ATS as underdogs).

You can't help but be taken aback by the young talent on Head Coach John Calipari's 2011-12 Kentucky outfit. This team has only been defeated twice over the course of the 39 games they've played heading into the program's first trip to the title game since 1998, and they've looked nothing short of dominating in their five games played in the Big Dance. Though they failed to cover the hefty check in the opening round match-up with in-state rival Western Kentucky, the Wildcats ripped apart an Iowa State team in the Round of 32 and then took care of Indiana before toppling Baylor in the Elite 8. That moved them to a perfect 3-0 SU & ATS versus the Big 12 this season. Getting the best of the hated in-state rival Louisville Cardinals was the cherry on top of their impressive season long performance, but there's still work to be done with Calipari who's still in search of that elusive first title. If ever he was to get it, it would be with this team that heads into Monday night's title game owners of the country's 15th most potent offense (77.6 PPG) and #1 ranked field goal percentage defense (37.4%); KY's 10-1 SU & 5-6 ATS on neutral courts - all as favorites.

These teams have split each of their L/6 meetings outright dating back to 1998, but Kansas holds the 4-2 advantage versus the closing number; the 'under' cashed in four of those contests. Kentucky won and covered these team's first meeting this season back in November at Madison Square Garden where they tallied the 75-65 win in the State Farm Champions Classic. The teams were tied at the break (28-28), but the Wildcats wore the Jayhawks down in the second half to pull out the SU & ATS wins. Kansas is 2-3 SU & 2-2-1 ATS the L/5 times it went off the board dogged by six points or less, but are 7-2 ATS its L/9 vs. the SEC. Kentucky is 3-2 SU & ATS the L/5 times it was favored by six or less points, but stands a bankroll bursting 3-12-1 ATS its L/16 non-conference tussles.

Nelly

Sacramento - over Minnesota

The Kings have lost five of the last six games but Sacramento also has recent wings over Boston, Memphis, and Utah, as well as a win over these Wolves in the last three weeks. The losses for the Kings have mainly come by very slim margins as this team is playing as well as it has all season in the last month. Among the five recent losses the margins have been by one, three, seven in overtime, five, and then an ugly 12-point loss Saturday in a tough travel spot. The Kings are well rested and healthy for this game, something Minnesota is not. In addition to Ricky Rubio’s season ending injury, four regulars are likely to sit out on Monday night. With Michael Beasley, Nikola Pekovic, and Darko Milicic out tonight the Wolves will have a lot of pressure on star Kevin Love and while he is putting up huge numbers, the results have not been better with his increased scoring. The Kings have been playing high scoring games, scoring at least 99 points in 14 of the last 15 contests and Minnesota has struggled in recent high scoring games, losing five of the last six games in which they have allowed triple-digit points. The Kings are 8-1 ATS in the last nine games vs. the Northwest Division and Minnesota appears to be a sinking ship after a once promising start to the season. Minnesota is 8-13 ATS in the last 21 games and this will be an eleventh road game over the last 13 games in a grueling scheduling stretch. Minnesota has lost badly the last two games and this will be a third game in four nights with travel in between each game.

John Ryan

Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks

5* graded play on the Milwaukee Bucks as they take on the Washington Wizards in NBA action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. Milwaukee trails eighth place New York Knicks by 2 games in the Eastern Conference standings and if they are to make a run at the now injury riddled Knicks, they must win the games against the vastly inferior foes on their schedule.

The Knicks are now essentially ?guardless? with Lin essentially out for the season with a knee injury and I do believe that Milwaukee can smell blood in the water. The Bucks have a four-game stretch facing losing record opposition, which could quickly narrow the gap between them and the Knicks.

It starts tonight against the Washington Wizards. They then will face Cleveland, Portland, and the hapless Charlotte Bobcats in home tilts and will be favored in all three games to win. They also have a home showdown against the Knicks April 11. So, it is realistic that they could win the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference and knock the Knicks out.

The simulator shows a high probability that Milwaukee will win this game by 10 or more points. Other detailed projections show that Washington will have between 18 and 22 free throw attempts, will allow between 99 and 104 points, and will commit between 13 and 17 turnovers.

In past games, Washington is just 10-23 ATS when they attempt 18 to 22 free throws in a game over the last two seasons; 18-34 ATS when they allow 99 to 104 points in a game over the last three seasons; 25-46 ATS in games where they commit 13 to 17 turnovers over the last two seasons.

John Ryan

Kansas at Kentucky
Play: Kentucky

In college football, the last home game is dedicated to the Seniors, who have dedicated four years of their lives to the school. There is the traditional march from the goal line to the 50-yard line with parents joining them and it is a real tribute to the amateur athlete. Granted, many of these players are on scholarships, but many more at the D-II and D-III levels are not. In college basketball, the Final Game in the NCAA Tournament ought to be coined graduation night.

Once again, Kentucky is a centerpiece of NBA talented freshman, whose agenda is to stay in school for seven months and declare themselves eligible for the NBA draft. There is rarely any focus on academics other than making sure they are NCAA eligible to play. As exciting as it is to watch these athletes play at such a high level, there is a missing part called student-athlete. The NCAA commercial showing various athletes participating in the 29 sports sanctioned by the NCAA states that the majority of these athletes will be going pro in something else. Well, that is not the case for many of the players on the court tonight and if it were not for the one-year college requirement set forth by the NBA, we not even be watching Anthony Davis tonight.

I listened intently to the press conference interviews before and after the Louisville-Kentucky game and I have to admit there was a point where Pitino flat out fibbed a bit about the talent on the Kentucky team. He mentioned that, he is just not the type of head coach that could recruit a kid and say goodbye to him after just seven short months. That it is not in his character. Well, I sensed a bit of envy out of Pitino that his state rival Calipari not only can recruit better than he, he has the incredible ability to build a team of players that are focused more on the NBA then their short stint at Kentucky, and get them to play as a completely unselfish team.

Equally amazing is that Kansas has trailed for 75:44 minutes of a possible 80 minutes in their last two games against Big Ten opponents Purdue and Ohio State and somehow survived. Kansas is ranked fifth best in the country based on the NCAA committee seedings as they were the first No. 2 seed chosen and placed. Kansas can win this game, but they will need some things to go well for them. This is certainly not a David Versus type of game. So, the fact that Kansas has had to battle hard in the second half of their last two games gives them an extremely positive and confident mindset for this game tonight.

Favorites in the Championship game are on a nice 11-4 SU and 9-6 ATS run spanning the last 15 games played. This mark the 24th straight year that a No. 4 seed or higher will win the Mens Basketball Championship. There have been just six Championship games featuring TWO No. 1 seeds competing for the title. No. 1 seeds in the Final are 6-2 ATS and bad news for Kansas is that No. 2 seeds are just 1-5 ATS in the Final when coming off a straight win installed as a dog.

Kentucky has been installed as a 6 ? point favorite and the line has been moved to -6 -110 at the majority of shops. It is unlikely that the volume of bets would drive the price to the -5 level, but it is noteworthy that favorites in the Final of five points or less are an amazing 11-1 ATS. Bad news for Kansas noting that dogs of three or more points of a straight win installed as a dog in the semifinal are just 1-5 ATS.

I like Kentucky as a 5* graded play. I have a big problem playing against this Kentucky team, who did not play their best game against louisville, but at times were overwhelmingly dominant. This is Anthony Davis? stage and despite the fact the public is on the Wildcats, I just can?t find any meaningful group of stats or matchups that would offset the real advantages have in this game.

Take Kentucky

Vegas Experts

Kansas at Kentucky
Play: Under

Both of Saturday's games went Under. Not a surprise as all three Final Four games last year went Under, including a very low scoring national championship. These teams went Under a much higher total in the regular season matchup (75-65 win by Kentucky), and Kentucky is now 16-4 Under this season when the total is 130 to 139.5. Kansas is 11-4 Under in the exact same range. The Jayhawks are also 8-1 Under L9 NCAA Tournament games. Both teams were big for Under bettors all year w/ Kansas 23-13 and Kentucky 23-14, both to the Under.

Teddy Covers

Minnesota @ Sacramento
PICK: Sacramento -3

Minnesota is done – you can stick a fork in the T-wolves right about now. Minnesota has lost 10 of their last 14, unable to overcome the injuries that have devastated their roster. All Star forward Kevin Love made it very clear how demoralized the team is by explaining how depleted their roster is right now after losing Ricky Rubio, JJ Barea, Michael Beasley and Nikola Pekovic to injuries in the last month. Love: “Losing Ricky was obviously the toughest thing for us. We were able to grind out games and get wins, but then Pek went down, J.J. continued to be hurt and Michael just added firepower…”.

Coming off a blowout loss at Portland last night, falling into 12th place in the West, 3.5 games behind Houston for the last playoff spot, this historically miserable franchise doesn’t seem to have the toughness and fortitude to fight through the injuries. With low expectations for the rest of the season and a lottery pick as a reward if they continue to lose, I’m not expecting any sort of an April turnaround from the T-wolves.

While Minnesota is stumbling, very quietly the Sacramento Kings have been playing some pretty good basketball in recent weeks. They blew out this same T-wolves team 115-99 when they met on this floor just two weeks ago; part of a stretch where they also upset Memphis by nine and Boston by 25 here at Power Balance Pavilion. Coming off a lethargic 12 point loss to the Nets on Saturday (Coach Keith Smart: ‘We didn’t have the energy we needed”) expect a strong bounceback showing from the home favorite tonight. Take Sacramento.

Jack Jones

Dallas Mavericks -4

The Dallas Mavericks are showing great value as a mere 4-point home favorite over the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. Look for the defending champs to kick it into gear now that they are only three games ahead of ninth-place Utah in the Western Conference playoff race.

The Mavs have been playing much better of late by winning three of their last four, with their only loss coming at Miami during this stretch. That includes an impressive road victory at Orlando three days ago. Dallas comes in fresh and ready to go after having two days' rest since the Orlando win.

The Clippers are getting a lot of love right now due to their five-game winning streak. But all five of those wins came at home, and only one was against a team that would be in the playoffs if the season were to end today. They had lost three straight on the road to Indiana (89-102), Oklahoma City (91-114) and New Orleans (90-97) before that easy five-game homestand.

The Mavericks are 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Clippers. Los Angeles is 1-9 ATS after playing 3 consecutive home games this season. The Mavericks are 36-17-2 ATS in their last 55 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Bet Dallas Monday.

Dave Price

Milwaukee Bucks -7

The Bucks are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing record and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite. The Wizards are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Also, the Bucks are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings and 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Washington. Bet the Bucks.