Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, April 22

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Atlanta at Colorado
The Rockies look to take advantage of an Atlanta team that is 1-7 in Mike Minor's last 8 starts in Game 1 of a series. Colorado is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockies favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+105)

Game 951-952: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Burnett) 16.547; Philadelphia (Pettibone) 15.471
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 953-954: St. Louis at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Miller) 15.371; Washington (Haren) 15.729
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Washington (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-110); Over

Game 955-956: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wood) 15.456; Cincinnati (Leake) 14.935
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+140); Over

Game 957-958: Atlanta at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 15.768; Colorado (Francis) 16.994
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+105); Under

Game 959-960: Milwaukee at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Lohse) 15.987; San Diego (Marquis) 15.380
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-125); Under

Game 961-962: Arizona at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Miley) 16.397; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 15.382
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+105); Over

Game 963-964: Oakland at Boston (6:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Griffin) 16.376; Boston (Doubront) 16.086
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+105); Over

Game 965-966: Toronto at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Happ) 14.628; Baltimore (Tillman) 15.502
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-125); Under

Game 967-968: NY Yankees at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.362; Tampa Bay (Moore) 15.737
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+100); Over

Game 969-970: Cleveland at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 14.404; White Sox (Axelrod) 15.067
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-105); Under

Game 971-972: Seattle at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 15.065; Houston (Peacock) 13.775
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-175); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-175); Over

Game 973-974: Texas at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Holland) 15.938; LA Angels (Blanton) 15.534
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-115); Under

Game 975-976: Miami at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Nolasco) 13.407; Minnesota (Correia) 15.688
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-150); Over

Bryan LeonardFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Louis Cardinals -105FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dan Haren continues to be a fade candidate for the Nationals as they open up a three-game set against Shelby Miller and the Cardinals. Haren has been terrible in three starts this season, allowing almost two hits per inning and five home runs in 13.1 innings of work. Haren has only issued one walk this season, but he's finding out the hard way how difficult it is to live in the middle up the plate and up in the zone throwing in the high 80s. Of the balls put in play off of Haren, just 25.9% of them have been ground balls, which indicates a lack of command and a lot of pitches up in the zone. The Cardinals lineup is full of aggressive hitters who are going to take their cuts, which should hurt a pitcher like Haren who is always around the zone. The key guys in the Nationals bullpen have struggled as well and that bullpen could be called upon early if Haren is ineffective.
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Shelby Miller has been very impressive in his first three starts, racking up 18 K in 18.1 innings of work. Nationals hitters have not faced Miller and that should work to his advantage because there's a limited amount of video on him and a catcher like Yadier Molina, who knows the Nationals hitters well, will be ,and has been, a great asset to the young pitcher. One of the big keys for Miller is that he has limited walks and has shown great composure with runners on base.
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The Nationals have lost six of their last nine and have struggled offensively over that span. With Miller pitching far better than Haren at this point, getting the Cardinals as a slight dog is a good value for this matchup.

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago vs. CincinnatiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 8FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We want to play the over for teams like the Reds, off a home favored win at -200 or higher in their last game if they scored 10 or more in the win and the opponent is coming off a road dog loss where they scored 2 or less runs on 5+ hits and the total is 8 or less. These home favorites are 8-1 to the over since 2004. The Reds average 5.7 runs at home and over 6 runs vs left handers. Mike Leake will make the starts for the Reds and he has flown over in 7 of 8 April home starts the past few years. T. Wood goes for Chicago and he allowed 7 runs in 5 innings in his lone start here vs the Reds. The Cubs follow him up with a weak bullpen era at 5.19. Look for both offenses to score and push this one over the total.

Jim Feist

Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies
Pick: Atlanta Braves

Arguably the two best teams thus far in the NL matchup here at Coors Field on Monday as the Rockies host the Braves. Atlanta has started the season 13-5, though they did lose Sunday at Pittsburgh, 4-2. In fact, the loss was the third straight for the Braves after starting the season 13-2. Meanwhile, the talk in the NL West has been all about the defending champion Giants and rebuilt Dodgers. So the Rockies occupying first place right now has many people shaking their head. The Rockies were a perfect 8-0 at home this season until they lost Sunday to the Diamondbacks, 5-4. Still, Colorado has won nine of their last 10 games overall. Jeff Francis will try and keep the home record spotless today. Francis is 1-1 this season but does have a high 8.25 ERA. Mike Minor will toe the rubber for the Braves with a 2-1 mark and 0.95 ERA. Minor is 1-0 in two games against Colorado in his career with a 6.00 ERA. Now that Colorado has lost a home game, I look for that to continue here on Monday. We get a very good team with a very good pitcher as a dog and that's too much to pass up on. Take the Braves in a nice dog role.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New York Yankees at Tampa Bay RaysSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: New York YankeesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Matt Moore is impressing onlookers with that sparkling ERA and a spectacular early season K rate. No doubt about it, the Rays southpaw is loaded with talent and he has the stuff to be a big winner at this level. But Moore still has one nagging problem, and that's his poor control. So while there are some sensational numbers on the Moore chart, there's also that 5.5 BB rate. For those who might argue that he's thriving despite all the walks, I'll counter with some evidence that suggests he's also getting really lucky. Moore has benefited greatly from a ridiculous .175 BABIP and that's why he owns the nifty 97% strand rate so far. There's going to be a correction on those numbers, and when they happen, those BB's are going to start turning into runs.
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CC Sabathia is not blowing away batters with overpowering stuff. The velocity is not returning to its prior level. In fact, Sabathia clocked in with career low levels in his last start. Big CC has also had less than spectacular stats at this site, where he's just 3-5 lifetime. So I can completely understand why some bettors are convinced that Sabathia is getting lined on past performances rather than what he's doing right now. But the charts I put the most focus on tell me that the Yankees lefty is still pitching at a high level. Enough so that according to my numbers, CC ought to be the small chalk tonight.
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My philosophy on baseball is rooted more in determining value more on what is likely to happen moving forward rather than analyzing on what has already taken place. Obviously, this does not always work. But my contention is that the value is realized more in this manner than any other. Moore is the favorite over Sabathia tonight based on non-metric stats accrued so far this season. Off those numbers, Moore indeed rates being favored. But the columns I use tell me Moore is a candidate to regress and that Sabathia's well documented decrease in velocity is getting overrated. Therefore, this looks like a good spot to take rather than lay and I'm going with the underdog Yankees to get past the Rays tonight.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Winnipeg Jets at Buffalo SabresFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Winnipeg JetsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Still all to play for with Winnipeg, which is off a 5-0-1 homestand and remains in the mix for one of the final East playoff berths, battling the Rangers (currently a point ahead in the 8th spot) and Southeast Division leader Washington three points ahead) entering the final week. Meanwhile, Buffalo will be home for the playoffs for the fourth time in six years after getting blown out 8-4 on Friday by the Rangers. The Jets have beaten the Sabres five straight, holding Buffalo to one goal in each of the last five meetings, including a 2-1 win Feb. 19 and a 4-1 victory April 9. Sabres GK Ryan Miller has had his problems lately, allowing four goals on 14 shots on Friday vs. the Rangers before being pulled; he has a 4.24 GAA over his last four starts and a 3.06 GAA while losing his last four versus Winnipeg. The Jets likely go in the nets with with Ondrej Pavelec, who is 5-0-1 with a 2.26 GAA over his last six and has a 1.00 GAA while winning his last five starts versus Buffalo.

Stephen NoverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Yankees / Rays Over 7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Matt Moore is living up to his great potential this season, but I see a slight regression occurring. CC Sabathia remains good, but no longer is dominant. Neither pitcher has a good history against the team he is facing in this matchup.
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So I don't believe it's too much to ask the Yankees and Rays - both of whom are hitting well - to score at least three runs apiece in this game, which at worst would get at least a push on this low American League total.
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The Yankees are missing some key sticks, but still have managed to sock 21 homers, bat .293 and average 5.9 runs during their last 12 games. Tampa Bay is swinging the bats well, too, scoring six or more runs in four of its last five games.
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Many pitchers don't like throwing at Tropicana Field. Sabathia is one of them. He's 1-4 with a 4.01 ERA in his previous eight starts at Tropicana Field. Evan Longoria is batting .359 against Sabathia.
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Moore has a 5.06 career ERA in four starts versus the Yankees. He allowed 11 runs in 9 1/3 innings during two September starts against the Yankees last year. The Yankees are 7-1-1 to the over in their last nine road games.

Cajun Sports

St Louis vs. Washington
Play: Under 8

The Washington Nationals have posted a mark of 0-10 Under coming off a game in which they were shutout and allowed fewer than nine runs to their opponent in that contest. Play the Under

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Memphis/ Clippers Over 181.5: I had the over in the first game and it was an easy winner and I expect another easy one today. The Clippers at home should be able to dictate the pace just like the first game and that means an uptempo game. Their home games this year have averaged 197.5 ppg and they have put up 104.3 ppg at home. Memphis allows just 89.5 ppg overall, but 92 ppg on the road and their road games have averaged 185.5 ppg. This is supposed to be a defensive series, but I feel that the games played at LA will be higher scoring. They have the athletes to run on Memphis and that should continue to be their gameplan as we get at least 190 points scored in this one.

2 UNIT PLAY

Chicago/ Brooklyn Under 183.5: Game 1 of series was higher scoring than most expected, but allot of that was the energy that the Nets played with and the tempo they made the game into. That is not really their style of play and I expect this game to revert back to the lower scoring game that it was supposed to be in game 1. The Bulls played horrible defense in that game and you can bet that Coach T will have them ready to play at that end of the floor. This is a bulls team that ranked 3rd in scoring defense (92.9 ppg) a nd 9th in defensive FG% (44/3%), yet the Nets continued to get easy basket after easy basket. The Bulls WILL play much better defense in this one. The Bulls offense struggled vs the Nets defense in the opener, but I don't expect them to push tempo vs them here. That will only encourage the Nets to run as well. I really look for the Bulls to slow it down and get into a halfcourt game with the Nets here. The Nets really had it go their way, but I attribute most of that to the emotion of having a home playoff game in the first year in their new stadium. I expect this game to settle down into the lower scoring affair that should have happened in game one.

Art Aronson

Pittsburgh at Ottawa
Play: Over

These teams have played twice this season: Pittsburgh won 2-1 in Ottawa on January 27th before also winning 4-2 at home on February 13th. The O/U is 7-3 the last ten in this series and because of the situation that each team finds itself in coming into this contest, I'm definitely expecting tonight's game to follow suit. Pittsburgh is 34-10-0 overall and 17-5-0 on the road. It's won six straight, most recently a 3-2 win at Boston on Saturday (note that while the Pens have seen the total go 21-22-1 overall, it's 12-9-1 on the road). Ottawa is 23-15-6 overall and 15-4-3 at home. It's coming off a 4-1 setback to Toronto on Saturday (note though that it wasn't for a lack of trying, as Ottawa would direct a season high 50 shots on a net in the setback). The Pens have clinched the top seed in the Conference, but the Sens are in a dog fight still for one of the two remaining spots (note though that Sens goaltender Craig Anderson has lost four of his last five to the Pens, posting an extremely pedestrian 3.54 GAA in the process). I anticipate a fast-paced high-scoring shootout.

Will RogersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Winnipeg vs. BuffaloFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: WinnipegFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Winnipeg needs this game to stay alive. Buffalo's season is all but over. That's what this Monday night matchup in the Eastern Conference boils down to from where I sit. The Jets have the unique opportunity of having two chances to make the playoffs as they are chasing not only the Rangers, who occupy eighth place, but also the Capitals who are in 1st place of the division. They are three points back of both.
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Here are my keys to the game:FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1. Head to Head - The Jets have owned the Sabres the last two years, winning five straight against them. This includes 2-0 this season with wins of 4-1 and 2-1. Incredibly, Buffalo has scored just one time in each of those five losses while Winnipeg has outscored them 15-5. Goaltender Ondrej Pavalec has been stellar in net against the Sabres, winning five straight starts and posting a 1.00 GAA. He is 5-0-1 his last six starts overall. Even if Winnipeg goes with Jhonas Enroth, this play is still on though.
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2. Goaltending - While Winnipeg has gotten great play in net lately, Buffalo has not as former Olympic star Ryan Miller is really struggling of late. He was pulled in Friday's 8-4 loss to the Rangers after allowing four goals on 14 shot attempts. Including that loss, Miller now has a 4.24 GAA his last four starts. He's also lost four in a row to Winnipeg.
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3. X-Factor - Though on the road, the Jets will be the more motivated team tonight. They are fighting to get into the playoffs, a rarity for this franchise dating back to its time in Atlanta. They are 5-0-1 the last six games, albeit all those came on home ice. But look for them to pick up a critical road win here.

Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Anaheim vs. EdmontonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: EdmontonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Oilers lost at home to the Ducks last night, and they have now lost seven of eight overall. Edmonton got off to a good start to the game, with Taylor Hall opening the scoring in the first minute. The Ducks scored with less than 5 seconds remaining in the first period though, and it all went downhill from there.
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The Ducks went on to win 3-1, clinching home ice in the first round of the playoffs in the process. These two teams will meet again tonight, just 24 hours later in the same building. I'm expecting the Oilers to come out playing hard, looking to avenge last night's loss in front of their home fans.
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Edmonton carried the play in the first period of last night's game, but the Ducks rallied back. Anaheim should be primed to suffer a let down though, playing their second game in as many nights.
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Tonight's game means a lot more to these young Oilers and their fans than it does to the Ducks, and I expect Edmonton to take advantage of this revenge situation.
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The Ducks have won 10 in a row in Edmonton, but I expect that streak to come to an end tonight.

Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami vs. MinnesotaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: MinnesotaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Here's a rare chance for the Twins to beat up on a team actually worse than them. Actually, fair is fair. Minnesota is playing well right now. Sunday's 5-3 win at Chicago was the team's fourth in a row as they've taken advantage of some time off and a light schedule due to poor weather. I lost going against them yesterday, but that was all I lost on a 5-1 Sunday (went 11-2 this weekend).
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Helping matters for the Twins tonight is that they have Kevin Correia pitching. In three starts so far, he's yet to allow more than three earned runs and has gone at least seven innings each time out. He'll face a terrible Marlins lineup that won't like hitting in the cold surroundings of Target Field.
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Cold or warm weather, the Marlins offense stinks right now. They have the fewest home runs (6) in baseball and are last in team batting average and slugging percentage. They are tied for the worst OBP in MLB. They were just swept in Cincinnati, and while they did manage six runs in Sunday's series finale, the team is still barely averaging more than two full runs per game this season. Miami is 2-8 on the road so far. You can't like their chances against a Twins team that's gotten hot all of a sudden.

WunderdogFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle at HoustonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: HoustonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle is a road favorite with King Felix Hernandez on the hill, but they are not a good road team at 3-7. Even King Felix isn't getting it done, with the team 1-3 in his four starts. His ERA is better at home than on the road, which was the case last year, and the last three years he is just 18-19 away from home. That's because this Seattle offense is terrible at 26th in runs scored, 28th in on-base percentage and ranked 29th in slugging and batting average. The Mariners are 0-5 in their last five road games, 1-9 in Hernandez's last ten starts and 5-13 in Hernandez's last 18 starts during game 1 of a series. Houston has a better offense at 15th in runs score and 12th in slugging. Starter Brad Peacock has fanned 15 in 13+ innings while allowing only 11 hits. Houston is 7-1 in the last eight meetings with Seattle and the Mariners are 1-4 in the last five meetings in Houston. Play the Astros.