Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday April, 23

Marc Lawrence

Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Kansas City Royals

When Kansas City sends Bruce Chen to the mound against the Blue Jays in the finale of this four game series the Royals will do so knowing Chen is in commanding KW form with 14 strikeouts and 2 walks this season. He is also 5-2 in his seven career team starts against Toronto. With that look for Morrow to fall to 0-3 in his career team starts in this park tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Kansas City.

Rob Vinciletti

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Arizona D-Backs

Arizona fits a nice system that has won 21 of 29 times the last 9 seasons and plays on home teams off a home win by 2 or more runs at -140 or higher, if they scored 5 or more runs and had 5 or more men left on base, vs an opponent off a road loss by 5 or more runs and they scored 2 or less runs with 10 or more men left on base. Arizona has won 3 of 4 as a home favorite from -100 to -125. The Phillies are still struggling at the plate and are scoring just 2.7 runs per game at night and under 2 runs in road games. They have K. Kendrick making the start here tonight and he allowed 5 runs in 5 innings in his only start here. Look for Arizona to take the opener of this series tonight.

Guillermo Sanchez Perez

Philadelphia @ New Jersey
PICK: Under 187.5

Philadelphia is 33-30 (14-16 on the road). New Jersey is 22-42 (9-23 at home). The last time these team's played against each other, New Jersey won 95-89 in Philadelphia on April 13th, 2012. Two of three in the season series have gone "under" the posted number, and I'm expecting this one to follow suit because of a few different situational factors.

The 76ers are coming off a 109-106 OT victory at Indiana on Saturday. Elton Brand had 20-points. Lou Williams chipped in 19. Jrue Holiday had 17-points. Andre Iguodala added 16. Philadelphia now needs just a win tonight, or a loss by Milwaukee to punch its ticket to the postseason. 'It's great for our confidence,' Brand said. 'The hottest team in the NBA, on their court, close game, found a way to win in a playoff atmosphere.'

This is the Net's final home game of the season, so a decent overall effort will have to be given, and certainly the thought of playing spoiler in any way that they can will be added motivation. Most recently New Jersey lost 106-95 at Milwaukee on Saturday. Gerald Wallace had 18-points and 11-rebounds. MarShon Brooks chipped in 17-points.

New Jersey's all-star guard Deron Williams though has been out for the last week with injury, and it's been reported that he'll miss this game, and the finale in Toronto on Thursday as well. In fact Williams could have already played his final game as a Net, as he's openly voiced that he'll plan to opt out of his current contract with New Jersey after the season, which would make him a free agent on July 1st.

The 76ers have seen the total go "under" the number in 28 of 46 as the favorite this season, while the Nets have seen it dip below the posted number in 14 of their last 22 after allowing 105-points or more.

You may want to consider a second look at the "under" in this one.

Freddy Wills

New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers
Play: New York Yankees

The Rangers are scorching right now without a doubt and now they return home after playing the Tigers with a ton of confidence but in come the Yankees who should have more after erasing a 9-0 defecit against the Red Sox on Saturday by scoring 7 int he 7th and 8th inning to win. C.C. did have some poor performances against the Rangers last year posting a 5.12 ERA against them but I still like his raw stats against the Rangers holding them to a .237 average and .655 OPS on 198 AB's. Those stats are much better than the south paw he faces off against in Derek Holland who posted a 8.62 ERA vs. the Yankees who were the #1 OPS team vs. LHP a year ago.

Holland started 3 games and just never got it going against the Yankees who have 91 AB's .341 average and a 1.018 OPS vs. the Yankees. Holland however is off to the fast start posting a 3.10 ERA this year while Sabathia has a 5.59 ERA through 3 starts and that is why he's the large dog on Monday. Holland though posted just a 4.69 ERA at home while Sabathia was better on the road posting a 2.93 ERA. It'll be a high scoring game, but I give the Yankees bats an edge against LHP and I also give the Yankees bullpen an edge in this match up. Yankees are 38-17 in their last 55 vs. LH starter and 18-8 in their last 26 road games. Rangers bats have started to cool down and Sabathia is due to finally break out of his little slump with a QS what better time?

Notable Hot Starters:
Jamie Moyer (2.55 ERA in 3GS - SD/HOU/SF)
Jaime Garcia (3.06 ERA in 3GS - CIN*2x/MIL)
Bruce Chen (2.00 ERA in 3GS - DET/OAK/LAA)
Jake Peavey (2.75 ERA in 3GS - BAL/DET/TEX)
Bartolo Colon (2.63 ERA in 4GS - SEA 3x* / LAA)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
Cold starter with the best shot at winning on Monday in my opinion is a tough call for Monday despite having John Lester with a 5.82 ERA in his last 3 GS and having a 2.40 ERA in 2 of those starts on the road. Will Lester bounce back? It's a huge question mark considering he's got 4 starts vs. the Twins over the last 3 years and a modest 4.61 ERA. However, he goes up against Jason Marquis and the Red Sox offense has not been the problem. Lester also faces a Twins offense that is not nearly the same as the one he struggled against. Kubel, Young, and Cuddyer no longer exist and the Twins are not the dominant offensive team they used to be at home when they played inside a dome.

Notable Cold Starters:
Jarr Jurrjens (8.10 ERA in 3GS - NYM 2x* / MIL)
Zach Greinke (5.09 ERA in 3GS - LAD/CHC/STL)

Jim Feist

White Sox vs Athletics
Pick: Under

Two of the hottest pitchers in baseball will matchup here on Monday as the White Sox travel to Oakland. Jake Peavy looks like he did back in the days with the Padres, posting a 2-0 mark this season with a 2.75 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. Peavy gave up three earned runs in his opening start, but since then has allowed just three earned runs over his last 13 2/3 innings. In addition, Peavy has 22 KO's this season compared to just two BB's. Another blast from the past making a big impact this season is Bartolo Colon for the A's. Colon is 3-1 this season with a 2.63 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. While Colon did have one bad start in four trips where he allowed seven earned runs, his other three starts he allowed just one earned run over 25 innings. And, that includes his last two starts where he allowed zero earned runs over 15 innings while striking out 10 and walking just one. Two hot pitchers in a pitcher's ballpark, that means UNDER here on Monday.

Dave Cokin

Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals
Pick: Kansas City Royals

The Royals are really scuffling right now, but I like their chances of finally winning a home game tonight. Brandon Morrow appears very beatable to me currently and Bruce Chen is hot. I'll back KC to get the win this evening.

SPORTS WAGERS

Toronto -103 over KANSAS CITY

The Royals opened the year with a 3-2 record. They’re now 3-12 after losing their 10th straight game on Sunday and that alone makes the Blue Jays, winners of three straight and atop the AL East, more than worthy of a bet. It’s not that difficult to figure out why K.C. is losing so many games either. Its opening day pitcher was Bruce Chen. Enough said. Chen had decent surface stats a year ago in which he posted an ERA under 4.00 for the first time since 2005. However, his xERA still sat at 4.50 and that suggests he was more lucky than good. The only upside Chen has is experience and the ability to mix up his pitches, as his average fastball velocity the last four seasons has dipped to 89.9 mph, 86.9 mph, 86.2 mph and 85.8 mph this season. His GB%/FB% this season is a disturbing 28%/48% and when you combine that with his age and marginal skills, it sends a clear message to stay away. Brandon Morrow is winless in three starts and has an ERA of 4.50. Morrow has always struggled at home but he’s also thrived on the road and this year is no different. He threw a seven inning, one hitter in his only road start this season. His Achilles Heel has been the long ball and this year he’s already surrendered six in three starts. The good news is that Kauffman Stadium suppresses right-handed HR’s by 13% and LH HR by 28%. Furthermore, Morrow’s BAA is just .214 and he really couldn’t have handpicked a better time to get his unlimited potential back on track. Play: Toronto -103 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

MLB Predictions

Braves / Dodgers Over 7.5

The Dodgers return home after going 3-3 on their mini road trip, bringing their overall record to 12-4 on the season. The Dodgers are a perfect 6-0 at home where they are averaging 4.83 runs per game. Their opponent tonight is the Atlanta Braves who are leading the National League in runs scored this season with 91. Atlanta is scoring 5.69 runs per game and 4.80 runs per game on the road. After starting 0-4 the Braves have won 10 of their last 12 to move to 10-6 on the season and 5-5 on the road. Atlanta has scored 5 or more runs 9 times this season. Tonight's starter for Atlanta is Jair Jurrjens, who is 0-1 on the season with a 8.10 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, and .362 opponents batting average. Jurrjens has managed to pitch just 13.1 innings over his three starts and has walked 9 batters with just 8 strikeouts. Last season Jurrjens went 13-6 with a 2.96 ERA, but so far in 2012 we haven't seen the same pitcher. He will have a tough test tonight facing Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier who are 1-2 in the majors in RBIs with 22 and 21. Kemp is hitting .450 on the season with 9 homeruns. Ethier is 5 for 11 (.455) against Jurrjens with 7 RBIs lifetime. Tonight's starter for the Dodgers is Chris Capuano who is 1-0 on the season with a 4.50 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and .233 opponents batting average. In his three starts he has allowed 4, 2, and 2 earned runs against with his longest outing being 6 innings. Last season with the Mets he went 11-12 with a 4.55 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and .270 opponents batting average. Take note that the OVER is 7-1 in the Braves last 8 road games and 5-1 in their last 6 overall. The OVER is 8-3 in Jurrjens' last 11 starts overall, and 7-1 in his last 8 vs NL West opponents. The OVER is 9-4 in the Dodgers last 13 games following a loss, and 8-3-1 in their last 12 after allowing 5+ runs in their previous game. Also take note that the OVER is 5-1-1 in these two teams last 7 meetings in Los Angeles. With the two pitchers we have on the mound tonight this total is too low for two teams with some of the hottest bats in the NL. Take the OVER at a good price.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Boston/ Minnesota Under 8.5: Gonna think outside the box on this one. When I first saw the line ,my initial knee jerk reaction was how can this line be so low? Both teams have been hitting and both staffs aren't worth a plug nickel, plus both of today's starters have struggle out the gate. The the first thing i noticed (can't believe I'm gonna say this) is that the line opened at 8.5 even and now the juice is on the Under yet over 90% of the bets are on the Over. Then I went inside the number and I have to agree with those guys. The Under is 10-3-2 in the last 15 in the series and 24-9-2 the last 35 in Minnesota. Yes Lester has struggled to start the year (5.82 ERA) and yes he has a 6.08 ERA in 3 starts in Minnesota, but this is still Jon Lester who we know can pitch and with the Sox reeling like they are he knows they need his best game yet if they are to break out of their funk. Let's also take notice that he will be facing a Minnesota team that has scored just 3.8 rpg at home on the year. Offensively Boston has been very good at home, but on the road they have averaged just 3.7 rpg, plus they have a lot of offensive injuries, with Crawford, Ellsbury, Repko all out and Youkilis listed as questionable and that has to take a toll on this team offensively as we move into the season. Jason Marquis got hit a bit in his first outing, but he does have a solid 3.29 ERA in 2 career starts vs Boston. I hope I didn't over think this one, but this total looks way to easy for the Over. The thing that scares me is the Boston pen, but I feel that Lester will go deep into this one and pitch a beauty, while Marquis will do the same vs an injury riddled Boston squad and that will leave fewer chances for these pens to blow this one. Look for no more than 7 in this one.

New York Yankees +102 over TEXAS: Not only do some good stats back the Yanks here, but we also have and angle that most here at pregame like to follow and that is the fact that teams off a long road trip don't generally do that well in their first game back. The Rangers are off a a 9 game road trip and teams off a trip that long are 0-2 in their first game back this year. CC Sabathia does have a 5.59 ERA in his 3 starts this year, but he is 1-0 in those starts, while the Yanks are 2-1. CC has a 4.80 ERA in his last 6 starts vs Texas (including postseason), but he is 4-0 in those starts, while the Yanks are 6-0 in those games. Derek Holland has not fared well vs the Yanks, as he is 0-4 with an 8.78 ERA in 5 career starts vs them, with the Rangers going 1-4 in those starts. Today Derek gets to face a hot Yankees offense that is hitting .344 in their last 5 games and have averaged 7.9 rpg in their last 7 games overall. Granted two of those games were in Boston (21 runs) and the rest have been at home, where both parks are hitters park, but this may be the best hitters park in the league, so I look for the Yanks strong hitting to continue here. Funny stat here for the Rangers. Texas has averaged a solid 7 rpg on the road this year, but just 4.4 rpg at home and that is a very odd number considering how well this team hits at home. Lots of distractions for the rangers, coming home off the long road trip and they are at a disadvantage on the mound, plus the Yanks offense is very hot right now. Take the Yanks here at a small dog price.

St Louis/ Chicago Under 7: The Cubs have had a devil of a time scoring runs of late as they have averaged just 2.9 rpg in their last 8 games overall. They have put up 4 rpg at home, but have hit just .238 in the process. Today the face Jaime Garcia, who has a solid 3.06 ERA in his 3 starts so far and he has been very good vs the Cubs with a 2.30 ERA in 4 starts vs them, including a 2.70 ERA in 2 starts here. Matt Garza has always been a better pitcher at home where he has a 3.33 ERA in his career, compared to a 4.39 career ERA on the road. This year he has pitched very well at home so far, allowing just 2 ER in 14.2 innings of work and he will be facing a St Louis offense that has been struggling to score without Berkman and Jay in the lineup. Both teams will struggle to score in this one vs two very good pitchers. Look for no more than 5 in this one.

2 UNIT PLAYS

NY Mets/ San Francisco Over 7.5 (Game 1): Tim Lincecum has had a rough go of if in his 3 starts this year so far, posting a 10.54 ERA so far. The Mets are not a great scoring team, especially at home (3.3 rpg), but they should be good for at least 4 runs here vs Tim, who just hasn't found his game just yet. Tim did pitch much better at home in his last appearance. After allowing the Phils 4 1st inning runs, he then allowed just 1 run in the next 5 innings, but out on the road it has been a different story. In 2 road contests he has allowed 11 ER in just 7.2 innings of work. Ouch. Miguel Batista gets the nod for the Mets and this will be his first start of the year. Miguel has a career ERA of 4.45 as a starter, including a 6.91 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Giants. Granted his last start vs the was back in 2006, but he does come in not pitching well out of the pen (3 ER in 5 innings) and he will be taking on a Giants team that scores much better on the road than at home. The Giants have averaged just 2.83 rpg at home, but away from their spacious pitchers park they have averaged a healthy 5.1 rpg. Both teams should be good for 4+ run as this one flies over the total.

Atlanta +124 over LA DODGERS: The Dodgers have done very well vs the bad teams on their schedule, but not so great vs the 1 good team they played (Milwaukee) and the Braves fall into the good team category. Atlanta has won 6 of their last 7 games and have done it with an offense that has averaged 8.2 rpg over that stretch. The Braves offense uis now 3rd in scoring and 6th in hitting and it doesn't appear they will slow down anytime soon. Chris Capuano does have a 1.64 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Braves, but Atlanta is hitting .277 vs lefties this year and after starting 0-3 vs left handed pitching, they have won their last 5 vs them. Jair Jurrjens has struggled out the gate, but his 8+ ERA won't last forever as he is a very solid pitcher and he is 1-0 with a 3.30 ERA in his last 3 starts here. LA's offense has been hot but they were shutout in Houston yesterday and may be ripe for a cool down period. LA is undefeated at home, but still Pittsburgh and San Diego are not the caliber of team that Atlanta is and besides a team won't go undefeated on the home field all season anyway. Look for Hot-lanta to stay that way with a solid road win over the Dodgers here.

1 UNIT PLAY

Philadelphia/ Arizona Over 9.5: This line doesn't make sense as both teams can't score right now, but because it doesn't make sense that's why I'll take the Over. These offenses should break out here vs really crappy pitching and put about 12 runs on the board in this one.

Lenny Del Genio

Charlotte Bobcats at Washington Wizards
Prediction: Charlotte Bobcats

Can't really back the Bobcats as a "premium" selection, but we do like their chances here in a huge revenge spot against the Wizards. It is 20 straight losses and counting for Charlotte entering Monday, one of those being a humiliating 28-point defeat at home to the Wizards. All the Bobcats need to do is win one game to avoid the worst single-season win percentage in NBA history. Considering that they end their season with games vs. Orlando and the Knicks, this represents their best shot. Washington is off three consecutive SU dog wins, all at +7.5 or higher, so now would be the time to sell on them. They are just 3-7 ATS when laying points this season. Take Charlotte.

Bryan Power

Charlotte @ Washington
PICK: Washington

Though I did manage to cash them as a 10* on Friday in an 85-80 home loss (as 14-point dogs!), the Bobcats are unbackable on the road where they've gone 3-28 SU and 12-19 ATS. They have lost 20 in a row overall, the latest coming last night in another embarrassment, losing at home to lowly Sacramento by 26! The Kings are arguably the worst team in the Western Conference right now, so that speaks volumes where the Charlotte players' heads are at right now. The Bobcats' point differential on the road this season is a horrid -15.3 PPG. Most frightening about their recent play has been the fact that much of it has come at home. Their last road game was a 23-point loss at Miami. They are 1-9 ATS L10 overall. They are 0-3 SU/ATS vs. the Wizards this season, including a 28-point loss AT HOME earlier this month. Washington has actually won and covered three straight, so look for them to hand Charlotte another double digit defeat.

Jeff Alexander

Toronto Blue Jays +102

The Blue Jays are showing value at this price versus a Kansas City club that has lost 10 in a row. Plus, the Blue Jays are 11-4 in Morrow's last 15 road starts and 10-0 in his last 10 road starts when the total is 7 to 8.5. The Royals are 0-4 in Chen's last 4 starts, 0-4 in his last 4 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 1-5 in his last 6 starts as a favorite. Take Toronto.

Steve Janus

Washington Wizards -8.5

The Wizards have continued to play hard down the stretch and I look for them to completely dominate the Bobcats on their home floor tonight.

Washington comes in having won three straight, which includes wins at Chicago and at Miami. The Wizards are trying to build something for next season, and I can't see them not showing up against Charlotte.

The Bobcats are on the verge of being the worst team in NBA history. They have lost 20 straight games and most of those contest haven't been close. As much as the Bobcats want to put an end to this streak, losing to a team like Charlotte is embarrassing for other teams around the league. The Wizards recent run of success would all be for nothing if they came out and lost this game.

The Bobcats are 1-11 ATS versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game this season.

Jimmy Boyd

Boston Red Sox -148

Boston is off to another slow start, but I like its chances against a Minnesota club it has defeated 5 times in the past 6 meetings. Plus, the Twins are just 13-40 in their last 53 overall, 9-28 in their last 37 home games, 16-47 in their last 63 games as an underdog and 5-22 in their last 27 series openers.

In addition, Lester is clearly more capable than Marquis of delivering a gem. The Red Sox have yet to win with him on the mound this season, but he was pretty darn good in road starts against the Tigers and Blue Jays (2.40 ERA, 0.933 WHIP). The Red Sox are 11-5 in Lester's last 16 road starts vs. a team with a losing record and 48-22 in his last 70 starts overall vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the BoSox.