Jack Jones
Toronto Raptors +10.5
The Toronto Raptors are showing solid value as a double-digit road underdog to the Milwaukee Bucks. I believe oddsmakers have inflated this line due to the fact that it's a must-win for the Bucks if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive. Even if they win the Bucks could be eliminated if the 76ers beat the Nets tonight.
Toronto has been pretty competitive here down the stretch with wins over both the Boston Celtics and Atlanta Hawks in two of their last five contests. Milwaukee has not handled the pressure of trying to make the playoffs well at all. The Bucks are just 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
The Raptors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. The Bucks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Toronto is 19-6 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season. Milwaukee is 0-8 ATS in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Raptors Monday.
Dave Price
Chicago Cubs +101
The Cubs are struggling but Garza gives them an excellent opportunity to pick up a "W" here. He's 1-0 (1-1 on the money line) with an ERA of 1.23 in 2 starts at Wrigley this season. He's also 2-0 against the Cards in 2 starts at Wrigley, only giving up 1 earned run in 12 innings of work. The Cubs are 6-0 in Garza's last 6 starts vs. the National League Central, 4-1 in his last 5 home starts and 7-2 in his last 9 starts overall.
JEFF BENTON
Your Monday night freebie is the Cavaliers plus the points in Memphis.
The Grizzlies currently hold the #5 playoff spot in the Western Conference, and they could possibly move up to the #4 spot (and home court advantage) if they are able to close out the year with a pair of wins and some help from the Los Angeles Clippers.
The problem is, the Grizzlies have been asked to cover some very inflated numbers of late, and they have not been up to the task. Sure, Memphis owns a four game straight up win streak, but the Grizzlies are on a 1-5 spread slide their last six games - all in the role of favorite.
Cleveland is off a loss to San Antonio, but the Cavaliers do bring a 17-14 road spread mark into this game, and they also bring an eye-popping 8-1 spread mark the last nine meetings versus the Grizzlies into this showdown.
I have a feeling the Grizzlies will get their needed SU win, but the linemakers have installed plenty of cushion for the Cavs to keep inside of this double-digit impost.
Grab the points in this one.
2♦ CLEVELAND
Chuck O'Brien
After watching the Los Angeles Lakers come back yesterday against the Oklahoma City Thunder, I was convinced the San Antonio Spurs are the best team RIGHT NOW in the NBA. And even though the number is somewhat high, the Spurs are going to be out to run wild tonight, showing everyone just how good they are this being the last week of the season. That's why they're my free pick tonight against the Portland Trail Blazers.
And with the win, the streaking Spurs will wrap up the top spot in the Western Conference for a second-straight season, defying Father Time with their so-called aging lineup. While the Thunder were losing to the Lakers in Los Angeles in double overtime yesterday, the Spurs were en route to routing the Cleveland Cavaliers, 114-98.
The Spurs now have a 1-1/2-game lead in the West with just three games to play, and get this, they're just one-half game behind Chicago for the best record in the NBA.
And making matters even more intriguing, this is a revenge game. The Spurs get a chance to win the West crown against the same team that dealt them their most lopsided loss in 15 years, a 137-97 setback back on Feb. 21.
I'd say this is going to be a 20-point rout.
2♦ SAN ANTONIO
Derek Mancini
For tonight's Free Play I'm laying the double-digits with the Bucks over the short-handed Raptors. Oddsmakers are trying their best to entice you to bet Toronto, but you must resist the urge. The points may look tempting, but these are two teams with two very different mindsets right now. Sure, the Bucks playoff hopes are slim-to-none, but at the very least there's hope and they'll be playing accordingly tonight.
The Raptors on the other hand are in evaluation mode, giving young players a chance to show what they've got. When their best player (DeRozan) plays only 28 minutes in a close game at Detroit last night, that tell me the Raptors could care less about winning. Coaches are busy evaluating Davis, Alabi, Forbes and Johnson, four young promising players who'll benefit from the extra minutes. But those four players will get eaten alive by the Bucks, who are still giving their started 30+ minutes and running a tight rotation.
Finally, there's no question the Bucks have been the right side to back in this series, going 8-1 ATS over their L9 meetings. All things considered, look for the Bucks to do to Toronto what they did to New Jersey Saturday, but even worse - a double digit win and cover. Take Milwaukee over Toronto Monday.
2♦ MILWAUKEE
Chris Jordan
For my free winner tonight I am playing the Pittsburgh Pirates laying a cheap price against the visiting Colorado Rockies, and I want you listing the opposing pitcher, Jamie Moyer, only.
On the heels of becoming the oldest pitcher to win a major league game, I don't like the record-setting southpaw in this spot, as the Rockies visit PNC Park to open a three-game series with the Bucs.
Lifetime against Pittsburgh, Moyer is 5-7 in 16 appearances with a 4.97 earned run average, and even though the Rockies have won five of their past seven in Pittsburgh, this is going to turn out bad for the veteran.
Before winning his third start, in his first two outings for the Rockies, after not pitching in the majors since 2010 with the Philadelphia Phillies, he allowed 13 hits and eight runs over 10-2/3 innings while losing to Houston and San Francisco.
The wins aren't going to be often, and certainly won't be back-to-back. Look for the Pirates to jump all over Moyer and the Rockies in this one.
3♦ PITTSBURGH
Dom Chambers
For my free selection, let’s take a look at the New York Mets to beat the San Francisco Giants in Game 1 of their doubleheader.
The Giants are starting “the Freak” Tim Lincecum. That could be the problem. He is having one of the worst starts of his career.
He is 0-2 in three starts and his ERA is 10.54. He has not made it past the sixth inning this season.
The Giants are 7-7 so far this season and having trouble with their offense. In their last seven games, they are averaging only 2.9 runs a game.
The Mets are starting Miguel Batista, who is getting the spot start because of the double-header. This will be his first start this season. The right-hander pitch in relief last Tuesday and Wednesday, going 2½ innings and did not give up a hit.
The Mets are only averaging 3.8 runs a game, but teams are hitting .344 against Lincecum, so I expect the Mets’ bats to come alive.
The Mets are home and Lincecum is struggling.
Take the Mets.
2♦ METS
Wunderdog
Charlotte at Washington
Pick: Under 191
The season can't end soon enough for either of these teams, but especially the Charlotte Bobcats. Charlotte is in the dregs of a 20-game losing streak, and they have literally quit. They have scored an average of less than 78 points per game over their last six, and have not topped 96 points in any of their 20-straight losses in regulation minutes. That means the Wizards, who have scored 100+ in all of three of their last 25 games, are going to be pressured to score what looks like 110+ to send this one OVER the total - something they have managed to do just three times all season in regulation. Play this one UNDER the total.
Rocketman
Portland @ San Antonio
Play: Portland +13
Portland travels to San Antonio to take on the Spurs on Monday night. Portland has been eliminated for a while now from the playoff while the Spurs sit at the top of the standings in the Western Conference. Portland is 7-2 SU overall the past 3 years against San Antonio. Portland is 8-2 ATS last 10 games against the NBA Southwest Division. Portland is 6-2 ATS last 8 games when playing on one days rest. Portland is 10-4 ATS last 14 games as a road underdog of 11 points or more. Portland is 8-3 ATS last 11 meetings overall in this series. I'm looking for Portland to get at least the backdoor cover in this one tonight. If the Spurs get a big lead I expect them to rest their starts some and we should get the easy cover here. We'll recommend a small play on Portland tonight!
Hollywood Sports
San Francisco Giants at New York Mets
Prediction: New York Mets
Take the New York Mets with the money line versus the San Francisco Giants while listing both starting pitches Dillon Gee and Madison Bumgarner. San Francisco (7-7) won Game Two of this series by a 5-4 score before seeing yesterday's contest rained out. The Giants have lost 7 of their last 8 road games as a favorite. San Fran has also lost 6 if their last 7 games agains teams with a winning record. They send out Bumgarner who is 2-1 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP this season. But the Giants have lost 4 straight road games with Bumgarner on the hill with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. New York (8-6) counters with Dillon Gee who is 1-1 with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP so far this season. What is encouraging about Gee is his increased strikeout rate as he has whiffed 11 batters in the 12 1/3 innings of work. Last year, Gee had only 114 Ks in 160 innings pitched. For the season, Gee was 13-6 with a 4.43 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of .248. Additionally, Gee was much more effective at home last year where he had a 3.17 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .227 opponent's batting average as compared to his 5.74 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and .268 opponent's batting average when on the road. This is a nice spot to back Gee since the Mets have won 4 of their 5 games as an underdog with Gee on mound. New York has also won 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. Take the Mets with the money line while listing both starting pitchers in this one.
EZWINNERS
St. Louis Cardinals -108
Chicago's starting pitcher Matt Garza has pitched pretty well this season, but I don't expect him to get much help from the struggling Cubs offense. The Cardinal's starting pitcher Jaime Garcia looked very good in his last outing against the Reds to push his record to 2-0 this season with an ERA of 3.06. Dating back to last season the Cubs are on a 5-16 slide. Play on St. Louis.
John Ryan
Philadelphia 76ers at New Jersey Nets
Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers
10* graded play on the Philadelphia 76ers as they take on the New Jersey Nets set to start at 7:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Philadelphia will win this game by double digits. The simulator also shows the additional projections that New Jersey will attempt between 77 and 83 shots, will make between 39 and 42% of their total shot attempts, will make between 32 and 38% of their three point shot attempts, and will score between 87 and 92 points.
In past games this heavily favors the 76ers. In past games New Jersey is 40-59 ATS losing 24.9 units per one unit wagered in games where they attempt 77 to 83 shots over the last three seasons; 4-13 ATS losing 10.3 units per one unit wagered in home games when they make 39% to 42% of their shots in a game over the last two seasons; 4-12 ATS losing 9.2 units per one unit wagered when they make 32% to 38% of their three point attempts in a game this season; 4-12 ATS losing 9.2 units per one unit wagered when they grab 48 to 52 rebounds in a game this season; 0-7 ATS losing 7.7 units per one unit wagered in home games when they score 87 to 92 points in a game this season.
Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 43-16 ATS for 73% winners since 2006. Play on road favorites after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games and winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. Of the 59 games played based on the criteria of this system, 29 of them or 46% covered the spread by seven or more points. This further underscores my believe that this will by a double digit win by the 76ers.
The Nets are not a good team by nearly all statistical measures in NBA basketball this year. The 76ers have taken care of business when playing against inferior and struggling type teams like the Nets. The 76ers are 16-5 ATS making 10.5 units per one unit wagered when facing poor teams that are being outscored by their opponents by three or more points per game this season. Take the Philadelphia 76ers as a 10* Titan graded play.
Carolina Sports
Red Sox vs. Twins
Play: Over 8.5
Both pitching staffs stink right now and are not in good pitching form. Boston started to wake up the bats on Saturday and Minnesota is slowly starting to hot better. Lester is a solid left pitcher but Boston's bullpen is gross. Look for some runs to be scored tonight. Take the over.
David Chan
L.A. Clippers @ Atlanta
PICK: Under 192.5
I bet value where I see it and expect this total to sneak below the posted number.
The Clippers are 40-24 and are coming off a 107-98 win over New Orleans on Sunday.
It was the team's final home game of the year, and after a sluggish start, Chris Paul ended up with 33-points and 13-dimes; Randy Foye had 24-points; Blake Griffin added 21-points and 15-boards.
And with the win, the Clippers are now within a half-game of the Lakers for the Pacific division lead:
'We got to keep fighting,' Paul said. 'We got to win one more to lock up home court.'
'The last eight minutes turned it up on the defensive end, we got stops and we were able to get out in transition,' Paul said. 'Our bench came in and was huge.'
It's safe to say that we can expect a duplicate game-plan from this team tonight as it invades Philips Arena.
The Hawks are 38-26 and are coming off a 113-112 setback to the Knicks on Sunday.
Joe Johnson had 22-points:
'It's frustrating that we're still playing for something and defensively we were non-existent,' Johnson said. 'There was no help (on defense). If you were guarding somebody 1-on-1, you were definitely guarding 1-on-1.'
Atlanta holds the No. 5 seed in the East, and is also looking to clinch home court advantage throughout the playoffs, but will need to win out.
It's also safe to say, that after being so porous defensively last time out, and with the continued absence of big men Al Horford and ZaZa Pachulia, that a highly concerted collective effort on the defensive end of the floor will be paramount for this team tonight.
Note that the Clippers beat the Hawks 96-82 on March 14th, the total staying well below the posted number of 184.5 in that one, and I expect a very similar final today.
All signs point to another low-scoring affair!