SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Orlando (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) at Charlotte (0-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
The Magic look to complete a four-game sweep of the Bobcats when they return to Charlotte Bobcats Arena for Game 4 of this best-of-7 Eastern Conference first-round series.
Orlando guard Jameer Nelson led the way in Saturday’s Game 3, scoring 32 points as the Magic rallied for an 90-86 victory, cashing as a two-point road favorite. The Magic outrebounded the Bobcats 42-33 on Saturday and outscored Charlotte 49-40 in the second half to pulled out the victory despite committing 21 turnovers.
Stephen Jackson (19 points) was one of four Bobcats to reach double figures in scoring Saturday, but Charlotte was a woeful 5-for-23 from three-point land.
The Magic are now 26-16 on the highway this season (22-18-2 ATS), including winning nine of their last 11 on the road (7-3-1 ATS). The Bobcats remain a solid 31-11 at home (23-18-1 ATS) this season, but they’ve followed up an 11-1 run (9-3 ATS) at Bobcats Arena by dropping two straight. That includes a 98-89 loss to the Bulls in the regular-season finale as a 1½-point underdog in a meaningless game to the Bobcats, but one with playoff implications for the Bulls.
This is the first trip to the postseason for this Charlotte franchise in its sixth season in existence. Meanwhile, the Magic are in the playoffs for the fourth consecutive year. Last spring, they eliminated the 76ers 4-2 (2-4 ATS) in the opening round, then went on to take down the defending-champion Celtics in the conference semifinals (4-3 SU and ATS) and beat the top-seeded Cavaliers (4-2, 5-1 ATS) to reach the NBA Finals for just the second time in franchise history. However, the dream ended in five games against the Lakers (1-4 ATS).
By winning the first three games of this series, Orlando is now on a 10-1 SU run against Charlotte. The Magic are 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings, and the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven series clashes.
Orlando is just 2-4 ATS in its last six as a playoff favorite, but it is on pointspread surges of 8-1 overall, 7-2 on the road, 21-7 against the Eastern Conference, 20-6-1 as a favorite and 7-0 as a road favorite. Charlotte is just 2-6 ATS in its last six overall, 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven as a ‘dog, and 1-6 ATS in its last seven on Monday, but it is on positive ATS streaks of 7-2-1 against the Southeast Division, 6-3-1 after a straight-up loss and 11-6 at home against teams with winning road records.
The Magic have topped the total in four straight Monday games and five of eight after a spread-cover, but they are on “under” runs of 29-13-2 as a favorite, 11-4-1 against Southeast Division teams and 4-0 as a playoff favorite. The Bobcats have gone “over” the total in seven of 11 at home, but they are on “under” streaks of 14-6-1 against the Eastern Conference, 12-3-1 against teams with winning records and 11-1-1 as an underdog.
Finally, the under has cashed in 11 of the last 15 meetings in this rivalry, including six of seven in Charlotte and it is 2-0-1 in this playoff series.
ATS ADVANTAGE:UNDER
Atlanta (2-1 SU and ATS) at Milwaukee (1-2 SU and ATS)
The Bucks, fresh off a blowout victory, will try to knot up this best-of-7, first-round series when they take on the Hawks in Game 4 at the Bradley Center.
Milwaukee jumped all over Atlanta in the first quarter Saturday, taking a 36-19 lead, and after giving back five points in the second, the Bucks outscored the Hawks by nine in the third on the way to a 107-89 Game 3 rout as a one-point home chalk. Milwaukee shot a stout 51.2 percent (41 of 80), including 10 of 23 from 3-point range, and six players scored in double figures, led by John Salmons (22 points, seven assists).
Atlanta, which won and cashed at home in the first two games of this series, shot just 39.1 percent in Game 3, including a dismal 3-for-15 effort from long distance (20 percent). Joe Johnson (25 points) led the Hawks, who had their six-game SU and five-game ATS streaks halted.
Atlanta stands at 19-23 SU (23-19 ATS) on the highway this season, averaging 98.6 ppg on 46.2 percent shooting, while allowing just a smidge less at 98.2 ppg (46.6 percent shooting). Meanwhile, Milwaukee is 29-13 SU (25-16-1 ATS) in the home jerseys, putting up 100.1 ppg and giving up 96.4, despite getting outshot 45.5 percent to 44.1 percent. The Bucks lost their last two regular-season home starts – including an eight-point loss to Atlanta two weeks ago – but are still 13-2 SU (10-4-1 ATS) in their last 15 at the Bradley Center.
Atlanta is 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings with Milwaukee, with Saturday’s setback ending a four-game ATS run by the Hawks in this rivalry (3-1 SU). The chalk is on a 12-3-1 ATS tear in the last 16 battles between these two, and the SU winner is 14-3-1 ATS in the last 18 contests.
Also, in Atlanta’s last 21 playoff contests, the SU winner is a torrid 20-0-1 ATS, and the SU winner is 9-0-1 ATS in Milwaukee’s last 10 overall.
The Hawks remain on pointspread sprees of 5-1 overall, 9-2 against the Central Division, 9-2 against winning teams, 8-1-1 after a SU loss of more than 10 points, 4-1 after a day off and 5-2 in first-round playoff games. However, Atlanta is also in a 2-7 ATS rut coming off a SU loss.
Despite Saturday’s effort, the Bucks are still on a 2-8-1 ATS freefall in first-round playoff games (1-4 last five) and are 2-5 ATS in their last seven against Southeast Division foes. Still, they led the NBA at the betting window in the regular season (52-28-2 ATS) and remain on positive pointspread streaks of 35-15-2 overall, 15-5-1 after a day off, 37-15-2 after a spread-cover and 14-6-2 following a SU win.
Saturday’s game went over the posted price of 188½, and the total has now gone high in nine of the last 10 meetings overall in this rivalry and five straight in Milwaukee. In addition, the Bucks are on a plethora of “over” sprees, including 6-2 overall, 6-0-1 at home, 9-1 against winning teams, 14-4-2 in first-round playoff games (6-1 last six), 6-0-1 at home and 9-1 against winning teams.
Finally, Atlanta is on “over” runs of 5-2 overall, 4-1 on the road, 7-1 against winning teams and 20-7 following a non-cover, though the under is 5-1 in the Hawks’ last six after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Portland (2-2 SU and ATS) at Phoenix (2-2 SU and ATS)
The surprise return of All-Star Brandon Roy led the Trail Blazers to a Game 4 win as they evened their best-of-7 Western Conference first-round series, which now shifts back to the US Airways Center for Game 5.
Portland scored a 96-87 home win on Saturday, easily cashing as a two-point underdog. Less than two weeks after having knee surgery, Roy came back to the court and although he scored just 10 points on 4-for-10 shooting in 26-plus minutes, he gave the Blazers a big emotional boost. LeMarcus Aldridge (31 points, 11 rebounds) shouldered much of the load in Saturday’s win, while guard Andre Miller (Roy’s replacement) contributed 15 points and eight assists. Amare Stoudemire scored 26 points for the Suns, who shot just 33-for-76 from the field (43.4 percent).
The Blazers are 25-18 (26-16-1 ATS) on the road this season, but have won twice in Phoenix this season, including a 105-100 upset win in Game 1 of this series as an 8½-point underdog. Portland has won six of its last eight (4-4 ATS) on the highway. The Suns are 33-10 (26-16-1 ATS) inside US Airways Center, and they’ve won nine of their last 10 at home (8-1-1 ATS), with the only loss and non-cover coming in Game 1 of this series.
Portland ended a six-year playoff drought last year, but went one-and-done, falling 4-2 to the Rockets (3-3 ATS) in the opening round. Phoenix is back in the postseason after missing out last year. This is the Suns’ 19th postseason appearances in the last 22 years.
The Blazers lead the season series 4-3 (4-2-1 ATS), and the road team has won three of the last six meetings, including two of three in this best-of-seven battle. However, the chalk has cashed in 19 of the last 30 meetings between these two, and the home team is riding a 7-3-1 ATS streak in the last 11 contests.
Portland is just 1-5 ATS in its last six after a spread-cover and 1-5 ATS in its last six after a straight-up win, but it is on positive ATS runs of 16-7-1 on the road, 10-3 as a playoff underdog and 15-7-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record. The Suns are on a plethora of ATS surges, including 27-11-1 overall, 8-1-1 at home, 19-7-1 as a favorite, 13-3-1 as a home favorite, 6-0 after a non-cover and 7-2-1 at home against teams with a winning home record.
The Blazers have stayed below the posted total in five of seven after a day off, but they are on “over” runs of 16-7 on the road, 17-8 as a road ‘dog, 20-8 on the road against teams with a winning home record, 5-1 after a spread-cover and 13-3 on Monday. Phoenix has stayed “under” the total in seven of 10 against Northwest Division teams and five of seven after a day off, but it is on “over” streaks of 5-1 at home, 5-1 after a non-cover, 13-6 as a playoff favorite and 6-1 as a playoff favorite of between five to 10½ points.
The under is 4-2 in the last six Blazers-Suns contests, but the over cashed in the first two games of this playoff series in the desert.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (11-7) at San Francisco (10-8)
Roy Halladay (4-0, 0.82 ERA) goes for his fifth win in as many starts this season as the Phillies open a three-game series at AT&T Park against the Giants, who are slated to hand the ball to southpaw Jonathan Sanchez (1-1, 1.86).
Philadelphia, which is in the midst of a nine-game road trip, lost two of three over the weekend in Arizona, including Sunday’s 8-6 setback. Since starting the season 8-2 (including 5-1 on the road), the Phillies have dropped five of their last eight games. They’ve also lost five of six to left-handed starters, but the two-time defending N.L. champs remain on positive runs of 6-3 on the highway, 37-18 versus the N.L. West, 7-2 in series openers and 21-6 on Monday.
San Francisco took the first two games of a weekend home series against Albert Pujols and the Cardinals (4-1 and 2-0), but failed to finish off the sweep as it got shutout 2-0 Sunday, with Pujols going 3-for-4 with a home run. Like Philadelphia, the Giants started out strong (8-3) but have since dropped five of their last seven. On the bright side, Bruce Bochy’s bunch is on positive surges of 10-3 at home, 11-5 against right-handed starters, 53-27 at home versus righties, 5-1 on Monday and 15-5 in series openers.
The Giants edged Philly in the season series last year, winning four of seven meetings, and they’re 6-3 in the last nine series clashes, including 5-1 in the last six at AT&T Park.
Halladay has been absolutely brilliant in his first month with his new team, giving up just four runs (three earned) in 33 innings. That includes two complete games in his last two road starts, beating the Astros 2-1 on April 11 and the Braves 2-0 on Wednesday. The veteran right-hander is 3-0 with a 0.36 ERA in three road games, and overall he has a 28-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Going back to last season when he was pitching in Toronto, Halladay has delivered eight straight quality starts, giving up two earned runs or less in each game while pitching at least seven innings in seven straight contests (including four complete games). In fact, Halladay has six complete games in his last 10 starts, allowing a total of 11 earned runs in 82 innings over this stretch (1.21 ERA). The only negative for Halladay coming into this one: He’s faced the Giants twice in his career – interleague games in 2002 and 2004 – and he’s 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA, yielding five runs in each game.
Sanchez struggled in his first start on April 9, allowing three runs on seven hits in just 4 1/3 innings, but he’s been fantastic in his last two outings, pitching eight scoreless innings in a 6-0 home win over Pittsburgh on April 14 and allowing one run in seven innings of a tough-luck 1-0 loss in San Diego last Monday. Sanchez has surrendered just four hits and six walks while striking out 21 in his last two games spanning 15 innings.
Sanchez has given up three runs or less in six consecutive starts going back to September, and San Francisco had won six straight games behind the left-hander before last week’s 1-0 loss to the Padres. However, the Giants are 1-6 in Sanchez’s last seven Monday starts and 3-7 in his last 10 against the N.L. East. Sanchez has faced the Phillies seven times (three starts), going 1-1 with a 3.74 ERA. In two starts against Philadelphia last season, he gave up a total of three runs, six hits and six walks in 11 2/3 innings, with San Francisco winning 7-2 at home and losing 1-0 on the road.
Philadelphia is on a slew of “over” runs, including 30-11-2 overall, 21-9 on the road, 5-1 versus left-handed starters, 5-1 against the N.L. West and 9-4-1 in series openers. Conversely, the Giants have stayed low in seven straight games overall, and the under is 9-4-1 in Sanchez’s last 14 starts overall and 5-2 in his last seven Monday outings. However, San Francisco is also on “over” surges of 9-3-2 in series openers, 5-1-2 on Monday, 13-5-2 when Sanchez starts at home and 6-2-1 when Sanchez faces N.L. East competition.
Finally, five of last year’s final six clashes between these teams stayed under the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
DUNKEL INDEX
Orlando at Charlotte
The Magic look to close out the series and take advantage of Charlotte's 1-4-2 ATS record in its last 7 games as an underdog. Orlando is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Magic favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-4)
Game 523-524: Orlando at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 128.608; Charlotte 121.160
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 7 1/2; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 4; 184
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-4); Under
Game 525-526: Atlanta at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 121.612; Milwaukee 116.319
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 5 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 190
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-1 1/2); Over
Game 527-528: Portland at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 120.567; Phoenix 124.837
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 4 1/2; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 6; 202
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+6); Over
MLB
Washington at Chicago Cubs
The Cubs look to take advantage of a Washington team that is 4-18 in John Lannan's last 22 starts in Game 1 of a series. Chicago is the pick (-165) according to Dunkel, which has the Cubs favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-165)
Game 951-952: LA Dodgers at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 14.570; NY Mets (Perez) 15.214
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+120); Under
Game 953-954: San Diego at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Latos) 15.333; Florida (Johnson) 16.062
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Florida (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-165); Over
Game 955-956: Washington at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 14.947; Cubs (Silva) 16.174
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-165); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-165); N/A
Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Duke) 13.904; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 13.266
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-220); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+180); Over
Game 959-960: Atlanta at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 15.036; St. Louis (Lohse) 14.268
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+105); Under
Game 961-962: Arizona at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Haren) 15.816; Colorado (Hammel) 15.094
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-115); Over
Game 963-964: Philadelphia at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Halladay) 15.819; San Francisco (Sanchez) 14.515
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-160); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-160); Under
Game 965-966: Boston at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Beckett) 15.163; Toronto (Eveland) 14.114
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-145); Under
Game 967-968: Detroit at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Bonderman) 15.066; Texas (Harrison) 16.247
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-145); Over
Game 969-970: Seattle at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 16.025; Kansas City (Davies) 14.424
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-175); Over
Game 971-972: Cleveland at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Huff) 14.954; LA Angels (Weaver) 15.856
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-180); Under
NHL
Chicago at Nashville
The Blackhawks look to close out the series and build on their 5-1 record in their last 6 road games. Chicago is the pick (-155) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-155)
Game 1-2: Buffalo at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 12.359; Boston 12.899
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-135); Under
Game 3-4: Washington at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 11.492; Montreal 11.072
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-190); 6
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-190); Over
Game 5-6: Chicago at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.398; Nashville 11.287
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-155); 5
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-155); Over
Steve Merril
Indians vs. Angels
Play: Under 8.5
Cleveland’s woeful offense travels to Anaheim to take on the Angels tonight. Cleveland's lineup is sporting a .222 batting average after being shutout in Oakland on Sunday. The Indians have scored just 15 runs in six games during their current road trip. Tonight, they’ll face Jered Weaver who is 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA this year. The right hander has given up just eight runs in 26 innings of work. Weaver is 2-1 with a 4.17 ERA in eight career starts against the Tribe. Last August, he threw a complete game, seven-hitter against Cleveland at Jacobs Field. Travis Hafner (1-15), Asdrubal Cabrera (3-13), Andy Marte (1-7), Russell Branyan (1-6) and Mike Redmond (0-5) all have poor numbers against Weaver. Cleveland has gone Under in five of their seven night games scoring just 2.7 runs per game. Left hander David Huff has been pitching well for Cleveland. He's 1-2 with a 3.00 ERA in three starts, all of which went Under the total. Huff will face an Angels’ team that has gone Under in four of seven games against left-handed starters with Los Angeles hitting .235 in those games. Huff faced the Angels once last season, and managed to hold Juan Rivera (0-3) and Howard Kendrick (0-3) hitless. We expect a pitcher’s duel in this game as both pitchers will be able to hold the offenses down enough to make this a low-scoring game.
BIG AL
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers were having some run scoring issues, having lost back-to-back games to the lowly Nationals last week and only plating three runs in the two games in DC. But they broke out of their hitting slump in a big way when they traveled northwest from Washington to Pittsburgh in a VERY big way. The Pirates were glad to see the Brew Crew leave the Steel City as in the three game series there, Milwaukee swept the Bucs and scored 36 runs in the process, including a series finale in which the Pirates were embarrassed by a 20-0 margin. Now Pittsburgh gets to come west to try and even the score, but history is anything but kind to them at Miller Park. In fact, it's been downright cruel. The Pirates have lost the last 21 - that's right 21 - times they've come to Milwaukee, dating back to early May of 2007. Milwaukee righthander Yovani Gallardo was off to a less-than-stellar beginning to the season, losing his first three starts, but then looked like the ace he is capable of in his last start against these Pirates, getting 10 strikeouts in five shutout innings. He gets the chance to go back-to-back against Pittsburgh tonight. Take the Brewers.
DAVID CHAN
Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Seattle Mariners
Take the Mariners backing Felix Hernandez over Kyle Davies.
Saturday’s free selection was also on the Mariners, and we lost it in sickening fashion. The ‘pen blew a 4-2 lead in the bottom of the ninth at the Cell on the south side of Chicago. Jim Croce did point out that the south side is the baddest part of town.
Our musical tour continues in Kansas City, where a song says that there are some “crazy little women there”. The Royals might want to sign a couple such ladies to contracts in an effort to get a little more pitching. Headed into Sunday the Royals had lost six of eight: while the bats are finally starting to wake up, opponents have been held to three runs or less only once in that stretch.
That’s the kind of pitching Seattle needs to face to break out. King Felix shouldn’t give the bullpen much chance to wreck this one.
Info Plays
3* on St. Louis Cardinals -115
Reasons why the Cardinals win:
1.) You'll rarely find St. Louis as such a small home favorite, so we'll take advantage. They are up against an Atlanta Braves team that is in the midst of a 5-game losing streak. Atlanta is having big problems scoring runs of late, putting up 4 or less runs in 8 straight games. The Braves have scored 14 runs combined in their last 8 games for an average of 1.75 RPG, and they've been shut out 3 times. Tim Hudson is getting a bit too much respect here from the lines makers as he owns a 5.02 ERA in 7 lifetime starts vs. St. Louis. Kyle Lohse allowed just 2 earned runs in 7 strong innings in his only home start this year. Bet the Cardinals at home.
Black Widow
1* on Charlotte Bobcats +4
Charlotte is a team that will not just give up easily. This team has accomplished a lot this season and they do not want it to end in a 4-game sweep at the hands of the Orlando Magic. Look for Orlando to let up with a 3-0 lead and the Bobcats to come out with their best effort in Game 4 tonight. Charlotte has proven to be resilient, going 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) after having lost 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. Better yet, the Bobcats are 26-9 ATS (+16.1 Units) after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons. Simply put, the Bobcats come out with greater effort tonight than Orlando which will be good enough to win and cover tonight. Take Charlotte and the points.
JIM FEIST
PIRATES / BREWERS
TAKE OVER
The Brewers will be very happy to welcome the Pirates to Milwaukee on Monday. The Brewers opened a six-game homestand against the Cubs and scored just four runs while getting swept. And, to make matters worse, the Brewers capped their three game losing streak to the Cubs by going 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position in a blowout loss, 12-2. But the cure to what ails the Brewers is in the form of the Bucs! The Brewers outscored Pittsburgh 36-1 in their previous series this season, including the finale where Milwaukee showed no mercy in a 20-0 route. The loss was the worst in the 124-year history of the Pirates. Slugger Ryan Braun is particularly happy to welcome Pittsburgh, as he hit two home runs and had eight RBI's in the series. Zach Duke starts for the Bucs and he has had no success against Milwaukee. Duke is 0-5 with a 8.63 ERA in his last seven starts against the Brewers and has never won in Milwaukee. I look for this series to again be high scoring. I highly doubt the Pirates will score just one run again in this series, so look for lots of offense and runs. Take the OVER.
James Patrick Sports
Blackhawks vs. Predators
Chicago looks to put their Opening Round Playoff Series with Nashville in the books by wrapping up the series with a win in Game #6.The Blackhawks are (5-1) on the road and a solid (5-0) in Monday action on the ice. Big Game James Patrick's Monday NHLP selection is Chicago Blackhawks.
Tom Freese
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles starter Hiroki Kuroda is going in game one of this series with the Mets. Kuroda is 19-6 his last 25 starts as favorites of -110 to -150. The Dodgers are 7-3 their last road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of over 60% and they are 4-1 their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Mets are 17-35 off a win and they are 5-11 after scoring 2 runs or less in their last game. New York is 2-6 their last 8 Monday games and they are 1-5 their last 6 games with the Dodgers. Starting pitcher Oliver Perez has been on the losing side in all 3 of his starts this year.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Buffalo Sabres @ Boston Bruins
PICK: Boston Bruins
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the Bruins as they'll look to wrap up this series in front of the home town crowd:
Buffalo played well enough to force a Game 6; but keep this in mind: no Sabres team in history has ever rallied from a 3-1 deficit to win a series.
Also remember, that dating back to the end of the regular season, Buffalo is a brutal 1-6 its last seven on the road overall.
On the other side of the ice: Boston is 14-1 when leading a best-of-seven series 3-1.
Boston was simply outplayed last time out against a desperate Buffalo team.
I believe home ice advantage can not be overlooked in this game.
And Boston has excelled in this spot; 5-3 (+1.2 units) when playing with two days of rest; 13-7 (+4.4 units) after allowing four goals or more in its previous contest.
Bottom line: I'm not reading too much into the result in Game 5 and look for the Bruins to clamp down in this contest and get ready for the 2nd round.
MATT FARGO
Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: Atlanta Braves
The Braves have been struggling for wins but they get a nice price in this series opener. They send Tim Hudson to the mound who is off to a solid start this season following his return from injury that allowed him to start only seven games last year. He is coming off another quality start against the Phillies but was on the wrong end of another Roy Halladay gem and there is nothing wrong with his 2.89 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. The lack of strikeouts is a concern to some but on a positive note, Hudson is getting a lot of groundball outs as his 4.00 GB/FB ratio is outstanding. He goes up against Kyle Lohse who is coming off a horrible effort in his last start in Arizona and he is just one for three in quality starts on the season. Since coming to the Cardinals, St. Louis is 0-3 in his three starts against the Braves. Play on National League road teams when the moneyline is +125 to -125 with a team batting average of .245 or worse on the season, after two straight losses by two runs or less. This situation is 39-18 (68.4 percent) since 1997. 3* Atlanta Braves
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 +104
Bottom Line: After getting swept by the Cubs on at Miller Park, the Brewers will look to take their frustrations out on a team they have dominated like no other. Milwaukee is a perfect 15-0 at home against Pittsburgh over the last 3 seasons, and it just swept the Pirates in Pittsburgh last week, outscoring them 36-1. It is also worth noting that Pittsburgh is 0-12 in road games after batting .225 or worse over a 10 game span over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average score of 2.6 to 6.9 in these spots. The Brewers are 4-0 in Gallardo's last 4 home starts vs. the Pirates and 7-1 in his last 8 starts overall vs. Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, the Pirates are 0-7 in Duke's last 7 starts vs. the Brewers and 0-9 in his last 9 road starts vs. the Brew Crew. We'll take Milwaukee on the run line here.
Jorge Gonzalez
Braves vs. Cardinals
Play Under: 8
The Atlanta Braves have lost five straight games and will be a bit tired after playing in the Sunday Night game that was cut short by rain. The Mets won that game 1-0 through the top of the sixth inning. The Braves continue to have problems scoring just six runs during their five game losing streak. The lead off spot for the Braves is batting .081 on the season and the pitcher spot in the line up has produced a hit all season. On the season the Braves are hitting .221 on the road and will have a tough time getting their offense going here against the St. Louis Cardinals. St. Louis has seen the under in five of the six games that they have played at home. The braves will send Tim Hudson to the mound to take on the Cardinal’s Kyle Loshe. The Cardinals have the besting pitching staff in baseball with an ERA of 2.72. Take under 8 runs.
EZWINNERS
Chicago Cubs -151
The switch back to the National League after spending the last six season in the American League seems to have done wonders for the Cubs starting pitcher Carlos Silva. Silva has allowed only two earned runs in 19 innings for a microscopic 0.95 ERA in his first three starts with Chicago this season. The Cubbies are starting to put it together as they have won four out of their last five games and they now host this series against a Washington team that has struggled on the road. The Nats are only 2-7 in the last nine meetings between these two teams and Washington is only 8-20 when today's starter John Lannan has taken the mound for a road start. Lannan has a 7.11 ERA in one career start against the Cubs at Wrigley Field as the Nats somehow won that game back in 2008. I don't think Washington will be that lucky here. Play on Chicago.