Sac Lawson
DET (+130) vs TEX
Fact is, I think Bonderman is vastly underrated, and a +130 price against Matt Harrison is very intriguing for a number of reasons. First off, I'd take the Detroit bullpen over the Texas pen any day of the week. Detroit sports a 2.32 bullpen ERA which is good enough for 2nd in the majors. SOLD. Then you've got Bonderman, a righty, who has just about one pitch working for him so far this year and it's his fastball. When his fastball is solid, righties really struggle to hit him, and that's what we're seeing early on from Bonderman. Lefties are slapping the guy all over the park, but righties are getting nothin'. Just so happens, the majority of the left handed bats in the Texas lineup have been dismal this season. Yes, the righties have hit right-handed pitching well, but if Bonderman continues to spot his fastball well against right handed bats, he should hold his own.
On the other side, Harrison is a guy that is tough to trust, especially against Detroit. He's 0-2 with a 7.59 against Detroit in his career, and the big reason is because of the large right handed bats that Detroit brings to the table. Righties hit Harrison at a 0.320 clip over the course of his career! Think about what that means for guys liek Cabrera, Ordonez, and even Inge.
With the way Harrison pitches to righties, and the righties that Detroit has to capitalize, it's hard not to think they'll cash in on some runs early. And with Bonderman holding his own against righties, Texas will have to depend on some left handed bats that have been nowhere to be found thus far. On top of that, we've got the better bullpen.... HMMM.. Obviously home field is an issue, let's wait and see what this line does.. The moment we see the favorite drop a little bit and the money come in on Detroit we should probably take it.
Karl Garrett
Portland at PHOENIX (-6)
Free Sunday winner on Dallas-San Antonio staying under the posted total. Now 3 straight comp play winners, and an overall 17-8 comp play run the last 25 days.
For Monday, going to lay the points with the Suns back at home against the Blazers.
Portland was able to square things up as Brandon Roy returned, and the Blazers won a 96-87 contest on their home floor over the weekend.
The home team is on a 7-3-1 spread run the last 11 series meetings between the teams, and the Suns are on a home spread run of 8-1-1 their last 10 games.
Those are key stats when handicapping this game, and that is the main reason the Suns are laying 3 baskets or so in this game.
I will stick with the "home cooking" tonight, and look for Phoenix to come through minus the number.
1♦ PHOENIX
Bobby Maxwell
Atlanta (+110) at ST. LOUIS
I'm on a FREE play run of 85-66-3 and tonight I've got a winner for you from the National League as I go with the Braves on the road in St. Louis to take on the Cardinals.
The Braves felt comfortable in Busch Stadium last season, sweeping a three-game series in September, outscoring the Cardinals 17-8. Tonight, I’ll grab the plus-money with Atlanta as they make their first stop at Busch this season.
On the mound for the Braves is Tim Hudson who is 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA in his three outings this season, allowing an identical two run in all three starts. Last time out, he gave up two runs on six hits in six innings but got no offense in a 2-0 loss to the Phillies. On the road he is 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA, allowing four runs in 12.2 innings in San Francisco and San Diego.
Kyle Lohse goes for the Cardinals and he’s 0-1 with a 7.31 ERA this season, allowing 13 runs in just 16 innings. In Arizona on Tuesday, he gave up seven runs on eight hits in just three innings of a 9-7 loss to the D’Backs. He’s allowed four runs or more in two of his three starts.
In that September series against the Braves, he allowed four runs on seven hits in 3.1 innings of a 7-6 loss and the Cardinals have lost all three of his outings against Atlanta. Hudson went to St. Louis last season and allowed four runs in five innings, but the Braves scored a 7-6 victory. Atlanta is 4-1 in his last five starts against the Cardinals.
Atlanta is 5-1 in Hudson’s last six road starts while the Cards are just 5-16 in Lohse’s last 21 outings, including 2-5 at home. I’ll grab the plus-money with the Braves tonight.
2♦ ATLANTA
Stephen Nover
Orlando at CHARLOTTE (+4)
The key questions with Orlando leading Charlotte 3-0 in this first-round series are will the Bobcats quit or will the Magic let down?
Look for the latter to happen. Unlike some teams, Charlotte will give an effort. Larry Brown will make sure of that. So will playing in Charlotte.
Until this season, there hadn't been a playoff game in Charlotte since 2002. The fans are excited and fired-up even though it's obvious the Bobcats are not going to advance into the second round. This matchup is the Bobcats' Super Bowl.
Charlotte nearly won Game 3 at home, losing 90-86. The Bobcats are not a good offensive team, but still they only lost by four points while shooting 41.9 percent from the floor, including missing 18 of 23 3-point shots. Stephen Jackson made just 6 of 18 shots from the field. He's better than that.
The Bobcats had the top defense in the NBA this year. They also were No. 2 in defending against 3-pointers. Their defense can keep them in this matchup against the disinterested and overconfident Magic.
It's not like Orlando is playing real well with the exception of point guard Jameer Nelson, who is eating up Raymond Felton. Dwight Howard has been in constant foul trouble the past three games. Vince Carter is in a funk and Rashard Lewis has a sore left ankle.
All this catches up to Orlando in Game 4. Look for the pesky Bobcats to hang in and cover the number if not pull the outright upset.
2♦ BOBCATS
Chuck O'Brien
Pittsburgh at MILWAUKEE
Five out of six free winners after the Nationals cashed a nice underdog ticket against the Dodgers on Sunday. Today’s complimentary selection also comes from baseball, and I’ll take the Brewers on the run-line (-1½ runs) against the Pirates.
Milwaukee is no doubt reeling a little bit after getting its clocked cleaned by the Cubs over the weekend, losing three home games by the combined score of 25-4. But the Brewers ran into Chicago’s three best pitchers (Dempster, Lilly and Wells) and countered with a bunch of crap on the mound (Jeff Suppan, Doug Davis, Dave Bush).
Tonight, though, the Brewers are turning to ace Yovani Gallardo, who would easily rank among the Top 10 in baseball if you were just judging pure stuff. After a three shaky starts to begin 2010, Gallardo got it going big time in his last start Tuesday, twirling five shutout innings, giving up three hits and striking out 10 en route to an easy 8-0 road win against … yep, you guessed it: these Pirates! That 8-0 victory was part of Milwaukee’s three-game sweep of Pittsburgh in which the Brewers scored 36 runs and gave up a grand total of one! That, of course, included Wednesday’s 20-0 wipeout (the Pirates worse loss in team history).
Things didn’t get any better for the Bucs over the weekend in Houston, where they got swept in three games, getting outscored 19-8. So that means the Pirates come into this ne having lost six straight games by a combined total of 55-9, and of those six losses, five were by more than a run.
Gallardo is now 4-2 with a 2.66 ERA all-time against Pittsburgh, and the Brewers are 7-1 in those eight games (with Gallardo giving up three earned runs or fewer in all eight). Pirates starter Zach Duke – who opposed Gallardo in Pittsburgh last week and allowed seven runs (six earned) in five innings – is now 3-6 with a 5.73 ERA in 14 career starts against the Brewers, with Pittsburgh losing the last seven in a row (all by more than a run). Even worse, the Pirates are 0-9 all-time when Duke pitches in Milwaukee, with the lefty giving up 35 earned runs in 42 2/3 innings (7.38 ERA). The last seven of those games at Miller Park were decided by 2, 4, 6, 5, 3, 2, and 4 runs.
5♦ MILWAUKEE -1.5
Craig Trapp
Trail Blazers vs Suns
Play: Over 202
PHO played horrible last game in POR but the return of Brandon Roy was going to be tough to beat eiether way. To win this series PHO must get it up and down just as they did in game 1 and 2 of this series. Expect Nash and company to push even after made baskets. PORT also can score in transition and now with Roy back they will get a ton easier shots as he draws double teams. Really think the over tonight will come in over 210.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Blazers/Suns OVER 202
Bottom Line: We saw the first two games of this series in Phoenix go Over the number, and now that the series shifts back to the desert I expect to see another Over the total finish tonight. The Suns know they need to push the tempo to be successful, and after being taken out of their game in Game 4, we can expect the Suns to really push the pace at home tonight. Here's the key - Phoenix is 22-6 Over in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons, and we are seeing 220.8 points on average in these spots. I don't anticipate this many points tonight because Portland has proven to play the Suns as tough as anyone. But I do think we can count on a total of 205-210. Take the Over.
Nelly
Detroit + over Texas
Detroit has been one of the top hitting teams in baseball this season with a .277 team average and outstanding numbers against left-handed pitching. The Tigers have hit few home runs but this is a team that does not strike out often and has been among the league leaders in walks taken. Texas looks like a strong offensive team on paper but it has not been the reality so far this year. The Rangers are hitting just .244 for the year and injuries continue to take a toll. Matt Harrison struggled in his last start, allowing six runs in four innings and the Rangers are 0-3 in his starts this season. Jeremy Bonderman had one bad start in Seattle but his other two outings were excellent. He seems to have his arm back after struggles the last few seasons and he is producing a strong strikeout count. Texas has lost seven of the last ten games despite winning two of the first three in this series and the Tigers have owned the recent history of this match-up. Detroit is playing an eleventh straight road game but the Tigers have scored at least four runs in each of the last six games and four of the last five losses have come by two runs or less. Detroit has featured one of the best bullpens in baseball so far this season and the Tigers have been the far better offensive team in the early going this season while the home field edge for Texas has not been significant.
Glenn McGrew
Magic at Bobcats
I don’t doubt the effort by Charlotte, a well coached team that plays great defense. The problem is the matchup. They are not a good offensive team and lack frontcourt muscle. Orlando has plenty of scorers, inside and out, plus Superman Dwight Howard a beast in the low post. Even at home in Game 3, Charlotte was outrebounded 43-44, 2-to-1 on the offensive glass. Charlotte was 5 of 23 from 3-point range. Play the Magic!
Tony George
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: Portland Trail Blazers +6.5
Tough number for Phoenix to lay in what should be a battle tonight. With Roy back in there, Portland has a new dynamic, and remember they have won in here already in Game 1. For a series tied 2-2, 6 points is a TON of points to lay in this one, the low post is even here and I like Portland to give it their all tonight, and they have confidence. This is more of a gut feel than anything, but Portland did not shoot all that well in the last game and still waxed the Suns, I have a feeling in this one that Portland gives them all they want and then some.
John Ryan
Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Milwaukee Bucks +2
3* graded play on Milwaukee as they host Atlanta in game 4 of this first round playoff series. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Milwaukee will win this game. Model shows that Milwaukee will shoot between 43 and 47% in this game. In past games shooting at that range they have posted a 20-10 ATS mark this season. Milwaukee is also projected to shoot between 32 and 38% from 3-point territory. In past games shooting 3’s within this range they are an impressive 12-3 ATS this season. Atlanta has not done well against team that like to shoot 3’s like Milwaukee. Note that Atlanta is just 14-31 ATS (-20.1 Units) in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Milwaukee is a solid 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season. Series gets tied 2-2 heading back to Atlanta. Take the Bucks.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5
3* graded play on the Pittsburgh Pirates on the Run Line with Zack Duke starting. The Pirates face the Brewers set to start at 8:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 51-21 for 70.8% winners making 28.2 units since 1997. Play on road teams against a 1.5 run line batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games and with a tired bullpen after 2 straight games throwing 5+ innings. Duke had a poor start in his last outing allowing 6 ER, 3 homers, in just 5 innings pitched. The good news is that he has been outstanding in his next start following one where he allowed 5 or more earned runs. Dating back to the start of the 2009 season, he sports a 2.33 ERA spanning 58 innings and 8 starts after allowing 5 or more earned runs. Take the Pirates on the run line.
TEDDY COVERS
Red Sox @ Blue Jays
PICK: Over 9
Dana Eveland has made three big league starts against the Boston Red Sox. All three have been quite ugly: nine earned runs in two innings, five earned runs in 4.2 innings and four earned runs in 2.2 innings. His career numbers against the Red Sox are as bad as it gets: a 17.36 ERA, a 3.21 WHIP and a .449 batting average against.
Eveland pitched well in his first two starts of the season, but he got hit hard (ten baserunners) in 5.1 innings of work against the Royals in his last outing. Facing a hot Boston lineup – seven runs or more scored in four of their last six games – look for Eveland’s struggles against the Red Sox to continue again here. And the Blue Jays bullpen behind him is not in good current form, lit up in all three games at Tampa over the weekend.
Josh Beckett has a great reputation, but his numbers don’t mesh with his highly touted abilties. Becket is 3-1 to the Over in four starts so far this year after closing out the regular season last year with an 8-2 run to the Over in his final ten regular season outings. In two starts against the Blue Jays last year, Beckett had a 10.45 ERA. It was more of the same in 2008: two starts against Toronto, a 16.71 ERA. The BoSox bullpen behind him got lit up in yesterday’s extra inning loss one night after almost blowing a big ninth inning lead. Expect runs in bunches from both squads tonight. 2* Take the Over.
LARRY NESS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks
The Rockies returned home on Friday for a three-game series with the Marlins, their first at home following the death of team president Keli McGregor. The team held a memorial service for McGregor on Sunday at Coors Field and now move on. They host the D'backs tonight, looking for the team's first three-game winning streak of the young season. Colorado gives the ball to Jason Hammel. He spent the 2006-08 seasons with Tampa Bay and was part of the '08 team which made a run to the World Series (4-4 with a 4.60 ERA in 40 appearances, including five starts). He was 10-8 with a 4.33 ERA last year for the Rockies, used primarily as a starter. He had 34 appearances, 30 of which were starts and team was an impressive 18-12 in those starts. However, he's off to a rough start in 2010, allowing 22 hits and 14 ERs in three starts over 15.2 innings (8.04 ERA with opponents batting .355). It should come as no surprise that's he's winless, going 0-1 (team is 0-3). Dan Haren starts for Arizona, which is looking to snap a five-game losing streak. Haren's had two very good seasons since coming to Arizona from Oakland, going 16-8 (3.33 ERA) in 2008 and 14-10 (3.14) in 2009. The D'backs went 39-27 (.591) in his starts, an impressive record when one considers the team was just 113-145 (.438) when another pitcher got the start (including Brandon Webb) these last two seasons. Haren's had a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 429-to-78 these last two seasons and in four starts in 2010, has 28 Ks in 26 innings with just six walks! Haren was not sharp in his last outing but I'll back him here, vs the struggling Hammel. Take the D'backs.
Wunderdog
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies
Play Under 9
There was a time when a total of 9 was nonexistent at Coors Field, but those times have changed. What is more amazing is that the Rockies, once a team with little or no pitching, has turned that around. Through their first nine home games, the Rockies’ staff has allowed just a total of 29 runs, or just over 3 per game. They have also played UNDER to a 6-1 mark in their last seven as a home dog. Dan Haren is a quality starter, and putting him up against a high total from 9-10.5 and his last four, have all stayed UNDER. He has also pitched the D-Backs to four straight UNDERs when facing the Rockies. I'll back this one to stay UNDER the total.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Magic/Bobcats UNDER 184.5
If you thought the first 3 games of this series were intense on the defensive end, then wait for tonight. With the Magic fighting for a sweep, and the Bobcats fighting for their playoff life, I expect this game to be even more intense on the defensive end. The Under should be the result. Right away history is on our side when you consider that plays Under on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points, in the 4th game of a playoff series, are 82-46 since 1996. The Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams and 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Charlotte. Take the Under.