Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday April, 30

Marc Lawrence

Chicago Cubs @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies

When the Phillies return home to host the Cubs in the finale of a four-game series Monday night on ESPN Philadelphia will send Vance Worley to the hill against ex-Marlin Chris Volstad knowing Worley is 9-5 with a 2.67 ERA in his career home team starts with the Phillies. He's also 2-0 with a sparkling 0.69 ERA in his last two starts this season. With Volstad a wobbly 0-4 in his last four road starts during the opening month of April, look for the Cubs to fall to 3-7 in their last 10 games against the N.L. East tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Philadelphia.

Guillermo Sanchez Perez

Twins @ Angels
PICK: Angels -1.5

Nobody expected the LA Angels to begin the MLB season off to such a poor start, they have been one of the biggest surprises so far this season. Angels slugger Albert Pujols is struggling mightily at the plate, where he has been so dominant throughout his career. Their pitching staff has given them some solid outings, however lack of run support left them without many W's in the wins column.

The Angels are matched up against the Twins on Monday, who have had an equally poor start to the season. Left-hander C.J. Wilson will be on the mound for the Angels in this one, coming off an impressive outing, striking out a season-high 11 in seven innings in a 3-2 loss to Tampa Bay. Wilson has pitched well all year, although his record doesn't show it, he did have a dominant performance in his Angels debut, a 5-1 rout against these Twins on April 9.

The Twins turn to Nick Blackburn, who is coming off a horrible outing, only lasting three innings in a loss to to Boston 11-2. Blackburn is winless on the season with an ERA of 7.53, not the kind of numbers you want to see from a starting pitcher.

This one is a big time pitching mismatch, there is no doubt about that! The problem is that the price is too high on the Angels ML, so look for the big bats of Pujols and and the Angels to break out of their funk today, and win by multiple runs.

The play is on the Angels on the RL

Rob Vinciletti

Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Chicago Cubs

The Philles fit a play against system that has won 10 of 12 times playing against home teams off a home loss and scored2 or less runs on 2 or less hits with 4 or less men left on base, vs an opponent off road win and scored 5 or more runs with 4 or more men left on base. The Philles lineup has struggled all season without Howard and Utley and could be exactly what Cubs Volstad needs to get back on track.The Cubs are 11-0 the last 3+ seasons as a road dog when they scored fewer than three runs in their starters last start and lost by multiple runs, as long as the starter went fewer than six innings and was not off a layoff of more than a month. Worley makes the start for the Phils and they have lost his last 3 home starts. Look for the Cubs to take the finale vs Philly here tonight.

Jim Feist

New York Mets vs Houston Astros
Pick: New York Mets

The Ny Mets have surprised many so far this year with a 13-9 star. They have won two straight and six of their last 10 games. Still, they are giving up way too many runs. In fact, the Mets have a -19 Run Differential. Their 107 runs allowed are tops in the NL East and third worst in the NL. R.A. Dickey will start for the Mets with a 3-1 record and 4.44 ERA. Dickey rebounded from his worst start of the year on 4/18 where he allowed eight earned runs over 4 1/3 innings. In his last start he beat Miami, allowing just three hits and one earned run. Meanwhile Houston has lost two straight games, dropping the Astros to 8-14. The Astros also have a losing record at home at 4-5. Bud Norris will get the start tonight. Norris is 1-1 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Norris is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing seven earned runs to the Brewers over 5 2/3 innings. I'm going to be siding with the road team here tonight. I like Dickey over Norris, plus the Mets are just the better team. Take the Mets.

Dave Cokin

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers

I'm not a big Aaron Harang supporter as he's basically an inning eating back of the rotation type. But he's pitching for a team that just keeps on winning, which is something the Rockies are not doing a whole lot of right now. Juan Nicasio has been ordinary so far, and I can see the Dodgers getting to him. I'll take the dog price with the LA side.

SPORTS WAGERS

INDIANA/Orlando under 187½

Despite winning game one by scoring the last 11 points of the contest, the question remains of who is going to score for the Magic. The 81 they put up in game one is likely the number they will be around again tonight. Orlando played in Indiana three times this season including the one playoff game and had outputs of 81, 81 and 85 and there’s nothing to suggest anything different here. This is playoff basketball in which the defensive intensity is turned up a few notches. In game 2, adjustments are made and the Magic simply do not have the offensive weapons to put up a lot of points. In order to win without Dwight Howard, they have to play tremendous defense and slow the tempo to a crawl. They did it in game one and will apply the same philosophy here. Even if the Pacers put up 100 points, an unlikely scenario to be sure, this one could still go under. Play: Indiana/Orlando under 187½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

SPORTS WAGERS

Arizona +150 over MIAMI

The Marlins are a mess right now. They’re batting a combined .226 and just .186 over their past five. They’ve lost two of three to the Diamondbacks and overall have lost eight of past nine. Arizona has scored 15 times in the three games here so far and there is little reason not to expect that many or more against Mark Buehrle. Buehrle has pitched more innings than any other pitcher in the majors over the past 10 years. He has some value but he’s also outpitched his skills for years and this season is no different with an xERA that is almost 1½ runs higher than his actual ERA. He has an unsustainable 81% strand rate. Buehrle has shown an uncanny ability to avoid disaster starts or innings and certainly deserves credit for what he’s done. However, as a big favorite, pitching for a reeling Marlins team that is seeing BB’s, he’s far too big a risk. Miami doesn’t get a break here either when facing one of Arizona’s hottest prospects in lefthander, Patrick Corbin. Corbin was very impressive in the spring with a 0.57 ERA over his first five appearances. He’s made four starts with Double-A Mobile this year and is 2-0 with a nifty 1.67 ERA. He has also fanned 25 batters in 27 innings. Corbin has some risk too because he’s never pitched above Double-A but at age 22 and with a taste of facing major-league hitters in the spring, he could certainly be ready to take the next step and at this price the risk is worth the reward. Play: Arizona +150 (Risking 2 units).

Baltimore +155 over N.Y. YANKEES

Jason Hammel has resurrected his career this season with a 1.73 ERA and 1.00 WHIP after four starts. While his ERA is sure to rise, he is no fluke. His skills are elite with a 62% groundball rate, 26 K’s in 25 IP and a BAA of .194. His rise started in spring training when he came to camp with more velocity and a sinking fastball, which caused Chipper Jones to say he was the most impressive pitcher he faced all spring. He’s already throwing harder (93.5 mph average fastball velocity) than he has at any time during his career. Leaving Colorado has worked out well and with improved raw stuff and an elite groundball tilt, there is plenty to like here. The Yankees have lost three of Hiroki Kuroda’s four starts. His only win this season came against an Angels’ team that is batting .166 this past week. Kuroda is 37-years-old and had the luxury of pitching at Chavez Ravine in Los Angeles for four years. Kuroda’s 4.38 ERA this season is right in line with his average skill set and once again we get some excellent value betting against the overpriced Yankees. Play: Baltimore +155 (Risking 2 units).

Seattle +117 over TAMPA BAY

All Felix Hernandez has been doing for years is taking the ball every fifth day and dominating the game. His chances of improving are nil because you can’t improve perfection. Hernandez' remarkable consistency and elite skills make him one of the most appealing investments in the business and any time we can take back a tag on him you can pencil us in. In this spot, against Jeremy Hellickson, we can’t click our wager fast enough. Hellickson is 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA and that is this year’s most misleading W/L record and ERA. In spite of skills last year indicating his results were outpacing his ability, Hellickson continued to escape disaster. Four starts into 2012, Hellickson is at it again. In 25 innings, he’s walked 12 and struck out 14. His xERA is 4.75 and that’s due to too many walks and an 86% strand rate. Hellickson continues to put up goose eggs while pitching on the edge of disaster every start. He simply cannot continue to win games and post ERA’s that are more than two runs lower than his xERA. Hellickson favored over Felix Hernandez is a bet that should never be made. Get on this one early. Play: Seattle +117 (Risking 2 units).

Eric Williams

New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat
Play: Miami Heat -9½

Whether they blow the Knicks out or not, there’s no way anyone in their right mind can pick the New York Knicks to cover the spread against the far superior Miami Heat in this Eastern Conference showdown.

The Heat didn’t just beat New York, they crushed any hopes (dreams) that the New York Knicks may have had of winning this series, by pounding them into submission in their 100-67 rout on Saturday.

Now, I like the Heat to win again by double digits and cover the spread as a big home favorite tonight.

Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last six home games and an even more impressive 8-2 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as a favorite.

While the Heat have also gone 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game, the Knicks have gone just 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog between 5.0 and 10.5 points and I don’t see them getting the job done tonight either.

The good news for Knicks betting backers is the fact that the Road team in this series has gone 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

David Banks

Mavericks / Thunder Over 194

The Oklahoma City Thunder (48-19, 35-32 ATS) were the favorites to win the Western Conference when the playoffs began, but they are very lucky to be up 1-0 in this series vs. the seventh-seeded and defending NBA Champion Dallas Mavericks (36-31, 33-34). The Thunder trailed for much of the fourth quarter in Game 1 Saturday and were down seven points with about 2:30 left before rallying, and they won 99-98 on a very fortunate shot by Kevin Durant with 1.5 seconds left that appeared to be off line but somehow bounced off the rim and then the backboard before dropping through. While that could have been a devastating loss for a younger team, the veteran Mavericks showed the heart of a champion while sending a message to the highly favored two-seeds that they will not go down without a fight. That could set of a great Game 2 from Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, OK Monday night at 9:30 on TNT.

The Thunder shot the ball well enough to win more comfortably than they did as they shot 48.1 percent from the floor, a tick above their season's average of 47.1 percent, which ranked third in the NBA. They fell short of their third best 103.1-point average though because they shot just 6-for-16 from beyond the three-point arc, including just 1-of-6 by Durant. He still ended up with 25 points, but Russell Westbrook led the team with 28 points while defensive specialist Serge Ibaka uncharacteristically poured in 22. Also, James Harden showed no ill effects of the elbow to the head he took from Metta World Peace last week as he added 19 points and six rebounding while hitting on two of his four three-point attempts. So with such a great balanced attack, why were the Thunder life and death to escape with a one-point win? Well, they were rather lax defensively early on while allowing 51 points in the first half, and they did not really turn up the pressure defensively until the fourth quarter, when recorded most of their eight steals.

The Mavericks also kept themselves in the game with excellent three-point shooting, hitting on 10-of-22 for 45.5 percent from beyond the arc, resulting in a net gain of +12 points compared to the Thunder's three-point shooting. That was uncharacteristic for a Dallas team that ranked 20th in the league in three-point shooting at just 33.9 percent. However, Jason Terry, who hit on 4-of-5 three-pointers and scored 20 points over the first three quarters, disappeared while getting shut out in the fourth quarter. Dirk Nowitzki ended up leading the way with 25 points and his two free throws gave the Mavericks a one-point lead right before Durant's final heroics.

Dallas easily covered the +7-point spread in Game 1, as in fact Oklahoma City's biggest lead of the entire game was only four points. That brought the road teams to 19-6-1 against the spread in the last 26 head-to-head meetings between these teams and the underdogs to 18-7-1 ATS in those same encounters. The Thunder are now 4-1 straight up vs. the Mavericks this season combining the regular season and playoffs, but the Mavericks are now 3-2 ATS in those meetings.

Lenny Del Genio

New York Knicks at Miami Heat
Prediction: Miami Heat

The Knicks are in a lot of trouble here. With an injury to Iman Shumpert, their guard rotation is down to Baron Davis, JR Smith and the atrocious Mike Bibby. Going back to previous seasons, New York is 1-6 ATS seeking revenge for a loss by 20 or more points. Saturday marked a season low in points scored and obviously their worst loss of the season. They'll be more competitive tonight, but you don't just come back from a 33-point loss in two nights and all of a sudden everything is all right. LeBron James took just 14 shots in Game 1, which is frightening when you consider how efficient he was. Take Miami.

Steve Merril

Cubs vs. Phillies
Play: Over 7.5

Chris Volstad looks to buck a terrible trend as the Cubs take on the Phillies on Monday night. Volstad is 0-3 with a 6.14 ERA in his first four starts with Chicago. Since July 10, 2011, he is 0-8 with a 4.59 ERA in 15 starts. Volstad has been a punching bag for the Phillies who have hit him up for 28 runs in his last five starts against them. Hunter Pence (5-14), Placido Polanco (3-11), Jimmy Rollins (13-29), Carlos Ruiz (9-20) and Shane Victorino (8-28) all hit the former Marlins’ starter well. The Phillies’ offense has been awful so far this season, but they've scored 27 runs in their last six games. Volstad will be backed by a Chicago bullpen that has been poor and figures to get some use. Vance Worley has continued to be stellar for the Phillies. He's 2-1 with a 2.16 ERA in 25 innings. Worley has struck out 27 while walking only nine. He faced the Cubs back in July of last year and gave up 1 run and four hits in eight innings. The Cubs have scored 12 runs in this series and they should be boosted by the return of Geovany Soto after he missed two games with mild tightness in his upper back. Phillies’ relievers have an ERA right around 3.26 this season. We’ll recommend the Over in this game, especially with Volstad on the mound.

SPORTS WAGERS

Los Angeles +152 over ST. LOUIS

Once again we get a rather abundant take-back on the Kings in a game they have just as good a chance of winning as the Blues or maybe more. The Kings were the better team in game one and they were the better team in just about every period against the Canucks in their opening round. This is a confident and dangerous team right now with everyone playing their roles to near perfection. All the pressure is on St. Louis to even this series up. Against this undefeated road playoff team, that’s a daunting task. The price dictates the play, as there is not a sensible reason for not playing this very live doggie. Play: Los Angeles +152 (Risking 2 units).

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Dallas +6.5 over OKLAHOMA CITY: I had the Thunder in the opener, but gonna go the other way with this one. The Road team is 19-6-1 the last 26 in the series and the Mavs are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 playoff games, plus 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 as a road dog of 5-10. The Mavs really controlled game one, especially on the boards where they outrebounded the Thunder 42-36 and pulled down 10 offensive rebounds. Durant didn't really shoot well and while that may not happen again, i still see the dallas defense being able to contain him for the most part in this one. Four Thunder starters logged 35+ minutes, while Durant, Harden, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka combined to score 94 of the Thunder's 99 points in Game 1, so there is not a lot of depth here and that should allow the Mavs to be able to keep this one close and maybe even pull out a late win. They are the defending champs and just not ready to give up that crown. Look for another down to the wire game.

Indiana/ Orlando Under 187.5: Really feel this total is too high, considering the way the magic have to play without Howard and the fact that game 1 pit up just 158 points. Including the 2 games in the regular season, in the 3 games played here between these teams there has been an average of just 169.7 ppg scored, with none of the games posting more than 185 points. During the course of the season the Magic were 7th in scoring defense (93.1), while the Pacers were 10th (94.2), so these teams have played great defense all year and it showed in game 1. The Magic have scored just 91 ppg on the road this year and that will be hard to accomplish that tonight without Howard, especially since the pacers have allowed just 93 ppg at home on the year. Orlando has played some great defense on the road as they have allowed just 93 ppg away from home and they know that their only shot of winning is playing great defense, like they did in the opener. I really don't see either team hitting 90 points in this one.

2 UNIT PLAY

Dallas/ Oklahoma City Under 194: I had the Over in this one in game 1, but will look to the Under here. A few of the Thunder players played a ton of minutes and i don't expect them to have the same pace they did in that one. Like wise for Dallas. In game one I felt the Mavs were totally outclasssed and would get blown out, which would not allow them to slow the game down. The were able to play with this team and i did get luck on the Over, but this is an aging team and I will expect them to keep the pace under wraps here. The Mavs did play good defense in the game and they were able to hold Durant to 10-27 shooting and I expect another solid defensive game plan from them here as well. Dallas does play good defense overall and they won last years title on the strength of some great defense, and while the Thunder have allowed 96.4 ppg at home they have allowed teams to shoot just 42.3% on their home floor. Game one put up 197 points, but the 3 previous in this series put up no more than 191 points. FT's at the end scares me a bit, but I still see this one falling under the total.

MTi Sports

Texas at Toronto
Play: Texas

The Rangers are 15-0 as a favorite in the first game of the series after a loss. Note that they have won these 15 games by an average of 6.4 runs per game and each of the last fourteen were multiple-run wins. Consider taking the Rangers on the run-line.