Matt Fargo
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres
The Brewers were able to salvage one game at St. Louis with a 3-2 win on Sunday but now they head out west with a 4-6 record on the road. The offense managed only six runs in the three-game set against the Cardinals and that offense has been an issue all season. The Brewers are hitting only .237 on the season including a mere .228 on the road and both of those are near the bottom of the league. Milwaukee is now 16-35 in its last 51 games as an underdog. It was the opposite way for San Diego as it won the series opener at San Francisco before losing the final two games of their three-game series. The Padres are now back home for a nine-game homestand which could prove to be a very integral part of the season should it go one way or the other. The Padres are just 5-9 at home and like the Brewers, it is the offense that has been holding it back. Not favored often, the Padres do take advantage as they are 4-0 in their last four games when laying the price. San Diego sends Joe Wieland to the hill and while he has yet to pick up a win in his rookie season, he has looked sharp. His Major League debut was not a good one as he allowed six runs in five innings on the road against the Dodgers but he has settled in at home where he has tossed two quality starts while posting a 2.25 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 12 innings. Run support is the issue but we should see another strong outing as the Brewers are 0-5 in their last five road games against right-handed starters. The Brewers counter with Randy Wolf who is off to a rough start this season. He is coming off a quality outing but that was his first one as his other three starts resulted in some bad numbers. Even though his last start was a good one, he has a 7.17 ERA on the year including a 16.62 ERA in his lone road start. He has bee hit hard in three of his last four starts in San Diego and Milwaukee is 3-9 in his last 12 road starts against teams with a losing road record.
Bryan Power
Mariners @ Rays
PICK: Under 7
Excellent pitching matchup tonight at Tropicana Field with Felix Hernandez going against Jeremy Hellickson. King Felix has a 1.23 ERA his last three starts, allowing just three earned runs over 22 innings of work. He was sensational two starts ago against Cleveland, striking out 12 and allowing no runs over eight innings but manager Eric Wedge foolishly decided to not let him finish and the bullpen blew the game. Hernandez came back and allowed just one run and four hits in a 9-1 win at Detroit in his last start. Tampa Bay's Hellickson has been even sharper this season, particularly at home where he has a 0.61 ERA in two starts. He won all three starts vs. the Mariners last season, compiling a 0.81 ERA. The Under is 14-3 in Hellickson's last 17 home starts.
Sean Murphy
Dodgers @ Rockies
PICK: Over 9.5
Coors Field has seen its share of slugfests over the years, and 2012 has been no different.
The Rockies just wrapped up a three-game weekend series with the Mets here at home that saw a grand total of 50 runs cross home plate. Seven of their 12 home games this season have reached double-digits.
Coming off a three-game series against the Nationals that saw them score only nine runs, the Dodgers wouldn't seem to be an ideal candidate to keep up the offensive onslaught tonight. However, a closer look indicates otherwise.
Contrary to popular belief, the Dodgers do have plenty of pop in their lineup - namely Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, who are living up to their superstar billing, and then some. It's worth noting that Los Angeles has scored at least four runs in seven of its 10 road games this season, so playing in the tomb that is Dodger Stadium has certainly contributed to its recent low-scoring results.
Dodgers starter Aaron Harang is off to a typically slow start, having gone 1-1 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.63 WHIP through his first four outings with his new team. He's had a history of problems pitching here at Coors Field. In two starts here in the last two years alone, he's been tagged for 13 hits and 11 earned runs in only 6 2/3 innings of work. Those two games totaled 15 and 16 runs.
Juan Nicasio counters for the Rockies. He's coming off a strong outing, but you can take that with a grain of salt, as it came against the offensively-challenged Pirates. Prior to that start, Nicasio had given up 12 hits and 10 earned runs in nine innings over his previous two outings. Nicasio faced the Dodgers twice last season, allowing nine earned runs in 10 2/3 innings pitched, with those games totaling 16 and 13 runs.
Neither bullpen has been particularly strong. The Dodgers 'pen has posted a collective 3.70 ERA while Rockies relievers have recorded a 4.00 ERA. It should only be a matter of time before one or both teams bust out at the dish tonight.
Jack Jones
New York Knicks +10.5
After getting blown out 67-100 in Game 1 to the Miami Heat, I fully expect the New York Knicks to come back with a much better effort tonight. I believe it will be good enough to cover this inflated number and stay within single-digits by game's end.
Nothing went right for the Knicks in Game 1 as they shot 25-of-70 (35.7 percent) from the field. Tyson Chandler was held scoreless, and Carmelo Anthony went 3-of-15 for only 11 points. I expect both of these leaders to have much bigger impacts tonight while keeping their team in the game.
This is the same team that went 13-5 SU & 13-5 ATS over their final 18 games of the regular season to play their way into the playoffs, and the No. 7 seed in the East. I'm not going to let one bad game take away from what they've accomplished, and I still feel like they are capable of giving the Heat a run for their money in this series.
Miami was getting all the calls in Game 1, and New York is 34-15 ATS after a game - attempting 20+ less free throws than opponent since 1996. The Knicks are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. New York is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. loss, and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. Bet the Knicks Monday.
MLB Predictions
New York Mets -111
The Mets enter Houston with a solid 13-9 record and are 5-4 on the road. New York took 2 of 3 in Colorado over the weekend after sweeping Miami at home, which makes them 5-1 in their last 6 games. The Astros managed to take just one game from both Milwaukee and Cincinnati last week, making them 2-4 in their last 6 games. Overall Houston is 8-14 and 4-5 at home. The Mets will have Knuckleballer R.A. Dickey on the mound tonight. He is 3-1 with a 4.44 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and .269 opponents batting average. Dickey has had 3 solid starts allowing 2, 1, and 1 earned run, but had one rough outing in Atlanta where he allowed 8 earned runs against over 4.1 innings of work (which has inflated his numbers quite a bit). The Astros will go with Bud Norris today, who is 1-1 on the season with a 5.84 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and .287 opponents batting average. Norris started the season off with two quality starts (2 and 3 earned runs against over 7 and 6 innings of work), but allowed 19 hits and 11 earned runs against over his last two starts. Take note that the Mets are 6-1 in their last 7 vs a team with a losing record, and 5-2 in their last 7 during Game 1 of a series. The Mets are 4-1 in Dickey's last 5 starts and 7-3 in his last 10 road starts dating back to last season. The Astros are just 32-71 in their last 103 games as an underdog, and 19-48 in their last 67 vs a team with a winning record. The Astros are also just 1-5 in Norris' last 6 home starts vs a team with a winning record, and 1-9 in his last 10 starts with 5 days of rest. Dickey has had great outings in 3 of his 4 starts, including his latest, and I expect him to out pitch Norris today. The Mets are rolling winning 5 of their last 6 while the Astros haven't won a season series since their first series versus Colorado. I'll take New York at a good price laying just a bit of chalk.
NHL Predictions
New York Rangers -150
The Rangers took Game 1 3-1 and I like them to go up 2-0 heading to Washington. The Rangers are 30-13-3 at home this season, while the Capitals are just 19-22-5 on the road. The Capitals took 3 games in Boston, but stole those with better goaltending. Lundqvist has been solid and I don't expect Holtby to be able to outplay him in New York. Note that the Rangers are 30-14 in their last 44 home games, and 39-19 in their last 58 games as a favorite. Tonight I'll take the better team laying some chalk at home.
Kings / Blues Under 4.5
In Game 1 we had the Kings to win and they got it done with a 3-1 win. The 4th goal was an empty net goal, so as expected goals were hard to come by in the first game between these two teams. The Kings are averaging just 2.31 goals per game this season, while allowing only 2.03 against. The Blues are averaging a bit higher 2.51 goals per game but just 1.89 against. That 1.89 against gets even better for the Blues at home as they are allowing just 1.69 goals against per game at home. In their 5 meetings this season we've seen totals of 4, 1, 1, 5, and 5. The UNDER is 28-13-11 in the Kings last 52 road games, and 4-0 in their last 4 overall. The UNDER is 42-16-19 in the Blues last 77 overall, and 27-13-12 in their last 52 home games. The UNDER is 7-0-1 in these two teams last 8 meetings overall. With what I think is the first 4.5 total of the season we are going to take the UNDER at a good +110 price.
Jimmy Boyd
Toronto Blue Jays +140
The Jays are showing value at this price as scheduled starter Drabek has the stuff to go toe-to-toe with Darvish. Drabek's season ERA (2.25) is lower than Davish's (2.42) and his home ERA (1.42) is lower than Darvish's road ERA (1.50). Drabek won his only previous meeting with the Rangers, a 6-4 victory at Texas on April 25, 2011, when he yielded three runs in six innings. The Rangers have struggled against the Blue Jays, losing 13 of the last 19 in the series, including 9 of the last 12 north of the border. It also can't go unmentioned that their best player, Josh Hamilton, left Sunday's game with back stiffness. His status for tonight's game is still up in the air, but don't be surprised if his swing is affected by the injury if he does go. Back injuries can be very difficult to deal with. We'll take the Jays at a nice price.
Rocketman
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee travels to San Diego to take on the Padres in the 1st game of a 3 game series. San Diego is 1-8 this year against left handed starters. Milwaukee is scoring 5.4 runs per game at night this year. San Diego is scoring only 3.1 runs per game overall this year, 2.7 runs per game at home this season and 2.3 runs per game against left handed starters this year. San Diego has a .212 team batting average overall this year and a .191 team batting average at home this season. Milwaukee is 19-7 last 26 games as a road favorite. Milwaukee is 56-21 last 77 games as a favorite. San Diego is 16-36 last 52 games against left handed starters. San Diego is 14-40 last 54 games when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. We'll recommend a small play on Milwaukee tonight.
Joseph D'Amico
Texas vs. Toronto
Play: Texas
Texas owns the best road record in the Major's, winning 8 of 9 away from home. When playing as a visitor, the Rangers are posting a whopping 7.00 RPG. The team ranks among the best in baseball in a slew of categories, including 3rd in RPG (5.45), 1st in BA (.291), and 2nd in both OPS (.830), and HRs (34). Check the status of Josh Hamilton. The LF left Sundays game with stiffness in his back but is most-likely playing today. Hamilton, Young, Beltre, Kinsler, and Gentry are all either flirting with or hitting over .300. Their lineup has 7 batters with nine or more RBI's. This is their first road game after a five game home stand. They send Yu Darvish to the mound. The RH is 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA this season. When Darvish starts, the team is 4-0 behind him this year. Darvish faces a Toronto team that has dropped 4 of their L6 overall and is .500 at home at 6-6. CF, Davis suffered a wrist injury on Sunday and is listed as questionable today. The Blue Jays are having trouble getting on base and even if they do, they are 20th in the league in SBs with just 13 steals. They have Kyle Drabek throwing today. The RH is 2-1 on the season but against an offense scoring 7.00 RPG and a pitching staff allowing a mere 2.67 RPG on the road, this is not a tough decision. The Rangers are 26-5 their L31 games played as a road favorite, 40-15 their L55 games played overall, 37-14 their L51 during Game 1 of a series, 44-19 their L63 vs. RH starters, and 4-0 in Darvish's L4 starts. Take Texas.
Black Widow
Seattle Mariners +130
Rarely will you ever get Felix Hernandez at this kind of price. I'll take advantage Monday and back the Seattle Mariners are a +130 dog to the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 1 of this series. Tampa is in a huge letdown spot after beating reigning two-time AL champ Texas last night on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball. Hernandez is 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.018 WHIP in five starts this season. He has absolutely owned the Rays throughout his career. Hernandez is 3-2 (7-2 money line) with a 2.42 ERA and 1.074 WHIP in nine lifetime starts against Tampa. Take the Mariners on the Money Line.
Dave Price
Boston Red Sox -142
Boston has the huge edge at the plate, and it's only a matter of time before Clay Buchholz gets it going. The Red Sox are batting .280 and scoring 5.5 runs per game while the A's are hitting .205 and scoring 2.9 runs per game. Also, the Red Sox are 5-0 in Buchholz's last 5 starts as a home favorite, and they have won 6 of the last 7 versus Oakland. Bet Bean Town.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Atlanta/ Pittsburgh Under 7.5: Both pitchers come in in great form as Mike Minor has a 1.69 ERA and an 0.75 WHIP in his last 3 starts, while James McDonald comes in with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in his last 3 starts. James has 3 career starts vs the Braves and he has an 0.98 ERA in 18.1 innings of work vs them. Let's also note that James' starts this year have seen just 5 rpg scored. Mike Minor has just 1 start at home and he allowed 0 ER in 7.1 innings of work vs the Brewers and he has a career 3.33 ERA in this park. Mike faced the Pirates once in his career (last year) and he allowed just 1 ER in 5.2 innings in that game. The Braves have scored 6.11 rpg at home, but 2 rpg have been shaved off of that in this series so far as they have not done great vs this tough Pittsburgh staff. I don't expect many runs from Atlanta and even less from Pittsburgh vs this tough left-hander. Pittsburgh comes in scoring just 2.25 rpg on the road, including averaging just 1.97 rp/9 vs lefties on the road. This is an inept offense all around as they have hit just .219 and scored 2.33 rpg overall on the year. The Under is 17-3-1 in Pittsburgh games this year, including 10-1-1 in their road games and I see that trend continuing here.
4 UNIT PLAY
LA Dodgers/ Colorado Over 9.5: LA had a good offensive flow and then they ran into the Washington pitching staff and that flow went away as they scored just 9 total runs in the three games. Well I expect them to get it back here in a place that has seen 2 of the last 8 in this series go Over the total. Juan Nicasio has struggled in the early going, with a 4.76 ERA, while in this park this year he has a 10.00 ERA in 2 starts, allowing 10 ER in just 9 innings. Oh yeah LA Should feast on this cat tonight. Really can't wait to see what Kemp will do in this park. Should be fun. Nicasio does have a career 3.42 ERA in this park, but one of those starts (last year) was vs these Dodgers and he allowed 4 ER on 7 hits in 5 innings of work in that game. He now has a 7.59 ERA in 2 starts vs the Dodgers. Aaron Harang is not off to a great start with the Dodgers, as he comes in with 5.16 ERA in his 4 starts so far, with his starts averaging 10.8 rpg. Aaron has a 6.75 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Rockies and a 6.08 ERA in 5 career starts at Coors, with those 5 starts at Coors putting up 12.8 rpg. His task won't get any easier tonight as the Rockies score 6.5 rpg in this park on a solid .285 hitting. Two struggling pitchers facing two good offenses, in a very good hitters park. Don't be surprised if this one puts up 15 runs.
3 UNIT PLAYS
PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (+130) over Chicago: The Phils are struggling that's for sure, but you have to expect them top come out with fire here, especially knowing that they have trips to Atlanta and Washington on deck. Losing right before that trip would not be good. The Phils offense has been a real disappointment this year, but they have shown signs at times that they can get the job done and they should have a good today vs a very bad pitcher. Dating back to last year Chris Volstad has now gone 0-8 with a 4.27 ERA, while this year he has started out 0-3 with a 6.14 ERA. Chris has also struggled with the Phils, as he is 2-5 with a 5.88 ERA in 12 career starts vs them, including an 0-2 mark with a 13.95 ERA in 2 games vs them last year. Chris was with the Marlins last year and they were outscored by a 23-3 count in the two starts. He does have a 2-1 mark here, but with a high 6.53 ERA. Vance Worley has had no such pitching problems in his short career, as he is 13-5 with a 2.81 ERA in 27 career starts, including a 6-2 mark with a 2.62 ERA in his last 13 starts at the bank. Vance also has a nice 1.63 ERA when he wins the game and in 1 start vs the Cubs he allowed 1 ER on 4 hits in 8 innings of work. THe Cubs have 7 road losses this year and all 7 have been by 2 runs or more and that should happen tonight as well as the Philly bats wake up again and pound Volstad early and often on their way to an easy win.
Milwaukee/ San Diego Over 6.5: Joe Weiland has pitched very well in his own park, allowing just 3 ER in 12 innings of work, but facing two struggling offenses in Philly and Washington doesn't say much. The Brewers aren't great Offensively, but they are better than the two teams that Weiland has faced at home. Milwaukee has averaged just 3.6 rpg on the road, but with this low an OU line that should be plenty of runs here. The Padres can't score or hit at home as they have a .189 BA and have scored just 2.71 RPG at Petco this year, but that should change tonight vs Randy Wolf, who has really struggled this year. The Wolfster has a 7.17 ERA in his 4 starts, with 13.8 rpg being scored in those games. Randy also has a career 4.27 ERA on the road, despite a winning record and he has a 5.51 ERA in 15 career starts vs the Padres, Including a 6.23 ERA in his last 4 starts (as an opponent) at Petco. Hers another interesting stat I found and that's that after a win Padre games have averaged just 5.7 rpg, but after a loss their games have averaged 7.7 rpg. Both offenses should have a decent showing tonight as this one hits at least 8 runs.
BOSTON -1.5 (+135) over Oakland: (Added) Ok Let's take a shot with Boston here to rout a team. The laast time Boston played on this field they were pretty much booed out the stadium and i expect them to have a good showing tonight to win back some of those fans. The Sox offense struggled in their last 2 games vs Chicago, but still on that trip they did did have a good showing offensively, scoring 6 runs or more in 5 of the 7 games. Boston averages 6 rpg at home and they hit well vs lefties at home. Clay Bucholz has really struggled for the Sox with an 7.36 ERA in his last 3 starts, but he is 2-1 in those starts and the Sox have outscored their opponents by 1.6 rpg in his last 3 starts and by 2 rpg in his home starts. Tom Milone has pitched well so far, with a 2.00 ERA in 4 starts, but he doesn't get much run support as the A's have averaged just 1.8 rpg in his starts, while Boston has given Clay 8.5 rpg worth of support on the year. The A's have struggled to score on the road, averaging 3 rpg and hitting a mere .203 away from home. Milone will not have a great game tonight, while Clay and that improved Boston pen (1.50 ERA last 5) keeps the A's offense in check here. Boston needs to get their fan support back and they should start to mend some fences with an easy win here.
2 UNIT PLAYS
LA Angels/ Minnesota Under 7.5: Thanks to some poor offense, the last 10 Angel games have averaged just 5.8 rpg. CJ Wilson's 4 starts have averaged just 6.2 rpg, with all 4 games going under the total. Look for another low scoring game in this one.
Texas -138 over TORONTO: Yu Darvish has been on a roll, going 2-0 with an 0.89 ERA in his last 3 starts. Drabek has been solid this year with a 2.25 ERA overall, but there is too much rangers offense and to much Yu for them to overcome in this one.
1 UNIT PLAYS
Miami/ Arizona Under 7.5: Gonna ride the two lefties trend above for this one. Miami averaging 1.6 rpg in their last 8 games and Buerhle won't give up much. Should not see 8 runs in this one.
Detroit -139 over Kansas City: Tigers are 13-3 in their last 16 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150, while the Royals are 12-25 in Hochevars last 37 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.