Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, April 4,2011

Marc Lawrence

Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Atlanta Braves

The Braves send right hander Brandon Beachy to the mound in Milwaukee against Chris Narveson and the Brewers Monday afternoon knowing Beach was in commanding form this spring with a 0.90 ERA in 20 innings of work while allowing only 16 batters to reach base. With Beachy anxious to pick up his initial win after going 0-3 with a 3.00 ERA last September, we'll back the Braves here this afternoon. We recommend a 1-unit play on Atlanta.

MTi Sports

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Texas Rangers

Seattle is 0-8 on the road after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $800 when playing against and 0-7 after a loss in which they drew 5+ walks and it is the first game of a series. The Rangers are on a roll and should be able to keep up their momentum vs the lowly M's. Lay this relatively short price.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Los Angeles Kings at San Jose Sharks

The Sharks have lost three of the last four times they've met the division rival Kings, but tonight in the Tank should be a different story as San Jose has won six of seven with only a loss to LA in the middle. Revenge will be sweet as San Jose is 7-2 SU with double revenge, including a perfect 3-0 if both losses came by one goal.

Play on: San Jose

Tony Karpinski

Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles

After finishing at the bottom of the AL East each of the last three seasons, the Baltimore Orioles find themselves in an unfamiliar position early in 2011. Young pitching has helped Baltimore to the top of the division and its first 3-0 start in 14 years, and the Orioles will look for that trend to continue when Jake Arrieta takes the mound in their home opener Monday against the Detroit Tigers.

Baltimore is winning while just hitting just .222 as a team, the Orioles - off to their best start since 1997, when they last made the playoffs - have allowed a total of just 23 baserunners as their pitching has been great.

Detroit's Rick Porcello will take the mound Monday. He went 4-10 with a 5.91 ERA in his first 17 starts last season and spent some time with Triple-A Toledo. Look for the Orioles to stay undefeated and to win their home opener on Monday afternoon over the Tigers.

Rob Vinciletti

Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Seattle Mariners

What we want to do is plays against home favorites like Texas that won as a home dog and scored 5 or more runs if they are taking on an opponent off a road dog loss and they scored 2 or less runs and the total was 8 or less. These Home favorites have lost outright over 70% of the time the last 7 years. Texas is off to a flying start. However Seattle did well taking 2 of 3 in Oakland. The Mariners have E. Bedard on the mound and he has a decent 4-2 record with a 3.12 era vs Texas. The Rangers counter with Lefty Holland. He did not do well in his last start here vs Seattle allowing 5 earned runs in 6 innings. Look for Seattle to surprise Texas here as a +140 dog.

Tom Freese

Butler vs. Connecticut
Play: Under 129

Connecticut is 22-10-1 their last 33 games as favorites. The Huskies are 5-1 UNDER their last 6 games overall. Connecticut is 5-1 UNDER their last 6 games overall. The Huskies are 4-1 UNDER off an ATS win and they are 4-1 UNDER their last 5 Big Dance games. The Huskies are 3-1-1 UNDER their last 5 games as favorites 0.5 to 6.5 points. Butler is 4-1 UNDER their last 5 Big Dance games. The Bulldogs are 6-2 UNDER their last 8 Monday games. Butler is 5-2 ATS their last 7 Non-Conference games. Butler is 8-2 UNDER in road games after 2 straight games giving 9 or less rebounds.

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Kings / Sharks Under 5

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":

The Kings have seen the total go "under" the number in 48 of 76 games this year (with two "pushes"), including in 23 of 38 on the road; on Saturday they beat Dallas 3-1; that was the teams fifth win in its last six games.

Note that the total has in fact gone "under" the number in seven of the King's last eight overall.

On the other side of the rink: The Sharks have seen the total go "under" the number in just 35 of 74 this year (with four "pushes"); on Saturday they beat the Ducks 4-2; this team has won seven of its last eight, with its only loss coming to the Kings in a 4-3 shootout on March 24th.

Bottom line: A win for the Sharks here and they'll clinch the Pacific Division for the fourth consecutive season; "We're in a race for second," forward Devin Setoguchi said. "We can't catch Vancouver. We're not going to just sit back. L.A. and Phoenix are a few points back. We have a goal to get second and try to get home ice."

A win for the Kings and they'll secure a second straight playoff berth; "We just found a way to do it again," forward Jarret Stoll said. "We found a way to get the points, and that's all that matters."

LA goaltender Jonathan Quick is 4-1-0 with a 1.75 GAA in his last five starts; his counterpart Antti Niemi is 4-1-2 with a 1.81 GAA vs. the Kings this year.

In what will definitely feel like a playoff contest tonight, expect each side to play a tight, mistake free game, and to create offense through strong defensive play; consider a second look at the "under".

EZWINNERS

Butler Bulldogs +3.5

The Butler Bulldogs are back in the NCAA tournament final for the second straight year despite losing Gordon Hayward to the Utah Jazz in the NBA draft. UCONN has also made a tremendous run after posting a 9-9 record in the Big East by winning the Big East tournament and making it to the NCAA championship game. I like the Bulldogs in this game as I think their execution is second to none. Almost every game they have played in this tournament has been tight, but Butler finds away to get it done when the pressure is on. I expect this to be another tight game all the way so I will gladly take the points in this one. The Bulldogs already took out the Big East's best team in the Pitt Panthers and I look for them to get it done here against UCONN. Play on Butler.

Red Dog Sports

Butler vs. Connecticut
Play: Connecticut -165

The UConn Huskies have already won two titles with Jim Calhoun and look poised to win another on Monday night. A mid-major hasn't won the title since UNLV 21 years ago. Butler made it to the finals last year and lost a close one to Duke. Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack lead the offense for Butler and are the only double digit scorers. The game looks to be low scoring with a total set in the 128 range so points will be at a premium.

I do think UConn is going to win. It could be a one point victory or it could be by 10 points but it just seems to be the Big East's year. Calhoun is twice the age of Brad Stevens and he could win it all and retire rather than sit out three games next year. He has had some health issues and I look for Kemba Walker and Jeremy Lamb to lead the way. UConn has inside presence to slow down Howard inside, and Vanzant, Smith and Nored aren't good scorers to complement the key Butler duo. Butler has had a great run but I think it ends on Monday night. By the way, I bet that Gordon Hayward wishes he was still playing in college.

Look for UConn to win on Monday and for Bruce Pearl to call and congratulate the Huskies after the game. Play UConn -165 on the ML.

Luke Anthony

Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles

I believe that being home and back in Baltimore will be a relief for the Orioles after getting the sweep down in Tampa. The Tigers have been on the road and playing 3 days in a row, with the travel in between will wear on them. I see the O's scoring a bunch of runs tonight and was leaning the over but think that the Orioles is the better, safer play with the way the Orioles are pitching so far this year. I will back the red hot team at home tonight in Baltimore.

Matt Fargo

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals

The Pirates are 2-1 while the Cardinals are 1-2 after the first series' of the season but we should expect things to get back to normal tonight. St. Louis salvaged its final game against San Diego thanks to a brilliant pitching performance from Jaime Garcia as the bats were once again held in check. We should see the offense bust out tonight as the Cardinals have a very favorable matchup on their side. The Pirates, despite two wins in Chicago, are 10-51 in their last 61 road games going back to last season. After signing a big deal at the end of the 2008 season, nothing has gone right for Kyle Lohse. He has just 10 wins over the last two seasons while posting a dreadful 6.55 ERA and 1.78 WHIP last season. But this could be a big bounceback season. He was diagnosed with exertion compartment syndrome which is an ailment where he had the inability to keep his right-forearm muscle firing. Obviously, that is a pretty important part of the success for pitchers in baseball. Lohse was 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA in five spring-training starts while walking none and striking out 15 in 24 innings. He said the best thing about spring training was his "ability to command the ball the way I'm used to, not the way I have been for the last year and a half." His struggles last season included games against the Pirates as he posted a 7.53 ERA and 2.09 WHIP in three starts. This after posting a 2.14 ERA in his first seven career starts against Pittsburgh. He will be opposed by Charlie Morton who is coming off a dreadful 2010 season as well. He went 2-12 with a 7.57 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in 17 starts while Lohse's problems can be blamed on health, Morton just was not very good. He is coming off a strong spring but I just cannot see him turning things around as in 51 career starts, his ERA is 5.98. He is 1-3 with a 7.77 ERA and 2.05 WHIP in five career starts against St. Louis and last season on the road he was 0-8 with a 9.00 ERA in 11 outings. 3* St. Louis Cardinals

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -147

Kyle Lohse is coming off a great spring, only allowing 5 runs in 24 innings over 5 starts. Healthy and in good form, I expect him to shut down the Pirates this evening. Consider that Lohse is 5-1 with a 3.41 ERA in 10 games versus Pittsburgh. Charlie Morton, who went 2-12 with a 7.57 ERA in 17 starts last season, gets the ball for Pittsburgh. The Pirates are 6-23 in his last 29 starts and 3-18 in his last 21 road starts. In addition, the Pirates are 10-51 in their last 61 road games and they has lost 8 of their last 9 in St. Louis. Take the Cards.

JIM FEIST

MINNESOTA TWINS / NEW YORK YANKEES
TAKE: NEW YORK YANKEES

The Yankees took two of three from the Tigers to start the season, though they did lose Sunday's contest, 10-7. Not surprisingly, there were 42 runs scored in the three game series at Yankee Stadium. Meanwhile, Minnesota dropped two of their opening three games to the Toronto Blue Jays. The Twins could manage just eight total runs in their three games while allowing 22. It won't get much easier here on Monday at Yankee Stadium, one of the league's better hitting parks. Scott Baker gets the start for the Twins. The Twins are 6-14 in Bakers' last 20 starts as a dog and 5-13 as a road dog. The Twins have never had much luck against the Yankees, particularly in Yankee Stadium (both old and new) where the Twins are 6-30 in their last 36 games. Don't expect that to change here on Monday. The Yankees are hitting the ball and the Twins are not. Fairly small price to be laying here on Monday with the Yankees.

Tony George

Baltimore -125

The Os just swept a decent Tampa team 3-0 in their opening series and Detroit was blasted at the Yanks and now face a team that gave up 3 runs in 3 games with a solid pitcher on the hill. I like Detroit's woes to continue on Monday as Baltimore keeps its going here. The Os have won 5 out of the last 7 in this series and always give the Tigers a game. Tigers bullpen worked over pretty good in that Yankees series.