Larry Ness
Pirates @ Cardinals
PICK: Over
Pittsburgh was a major league-worst 57-105 in 2010, giving the franchise its 18th consecutive losing season. However, the Pirates were 10-5 against the Cubs in 2010 and managed to take two of three games at Wrigley Field this past weekend. It’s on to St Louis for the Pirates to open the new week with a three-game series vs the Cards, before playing their home-opener Thursday vs the Rockies. Pittsburgh was a major league worst 17-64 on the road last year (minus-$3,173 vs the moneyline), giving them a five-year road mark of 122-282 (.302), so I’m not expecting the Pirates to win two of three again, even though the Cards have struggled scoring runs to open 2011. The Cards lost opening day 5-3 (11 innings) to the Padres and then 11-3 on Saturday, before winning 2-0 Sunday on the strength of Jaime Garcia’s four-hitter. Albert Pujols went 2 for 13 with a solo homer and grounded into four double plays to open his 2011 in the three games. However, Pujols is a .374 lifetime hitter against Pittsburgh with his 134 RBI vs the Pirates being the most against any opponent (his 45 HRs are his second-most against any opponent). I expect Pujols and the rest of the StL lineup to ‘get well’ vs Pittsburgh starter Charlie Morton. Morton went 4-8 (6.15 ERA) in 16 appearances (15 starts) with Atlanta back in 2008 but the last two years has toiled for the Pirates with no more success. He went 5-9 (4.55) in 18 starts in 2009 and then a woeful 2-12 with a 7.57 ERA in 17 starts last year (team was 2-15!), allowing 112 hits in just 79.2 innings. How CAN’T the Cards reach him? The Cards will counter with Kyle Lohse, who is looking to regain the form that produced a career-high 15 wins in 2008, a season which earned him a multi-year deal with the Cards. However, it’s been two injury-marred and unproductive seasons for Lohse since getting that new deal. He was 6-10 with a 4.74 ERA in 2009 (team was 7-15 in his 22 starts) and 4-8 with a 6.55 ERA last year, although the team managed to go 9-9 in his 18 starts. The good news for StL fans is that Lohse turned in a productive spring training, allowing five runs in 24 innings over five starts. “He’s already proven to us when he’s healthy he’s a quality pitcher,” manager Tony La Russa told the Cardinals’ official website. “He’s healthy, and we have to keep him healthy, and he’ll be fine. Then we have to do the rest of the stuff, play defense and score some runs.” While LaRussa may be buying into Lohse, I’m not ready to do so. With Morton and Lohse on the hill, I’m going over.
Jack Jones
St. Louis Cardinals -139
The St. Louis Cardinals got off to a rough start this season, losing two out of three to the San Diego Padres in their opening series. I like their chances of getting back on track at home tonight in Game 1 of this series against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Albert Pujols is a .374 lifetime hitter against Pittsburgh. His 134 RBIs versus the Pirates are his most against any opponent and his 45 homers are two fewer than his production against the Chicago Cubs. He's batted a whopping .458 with six homers and 16 RBIs in his last 20 home meetings with the Pirates, and is 4 for 10 off their scheduled starter, Charlie Morton.
Kyle Lohse appears to be back to his 2008 form after struggling over the last few seasons due to various injuries. Lohse turned in a productive spring training, allowing five runs in 24 innings over five starts. "He's already proven to us when he's healthy he's a quality pitcher," manager Tony La Russa told the Cardinals' official website. "He's healthy, and we have to keep him healthy, and he'll be fine." Lohse is 5-1 with a 3.41 ERA in 10 games versus Pittsburgh. The Cards are 35-17 in their last 52 home meetings with the Pirates. Bet St. Louis Monday.
Dave Price
1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -139
I'm going to fade the Pirates' Morton tonight, considering he is 0-11 on the money line in his last 11 starts as a road underdog of +100 or higher. The Pirates have lost these starts by an average of 4.9 runs. In addition, Pittsburgh has dropped 8 of its last 9 on the road in this season, and the Cardinals' Lohse is 5-1 with a 3.41 ERA lifetime against the Bucs. Take the Cards.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Mariners/Rangers OVER 9 Runs
Play Over on all teams (Seattle in this case) that had a terrible record last season (<=38%), playing a team that had a winning record last year, in divisional play, are 38-12 since 1997 and 18-3 the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have combined with their opponents to score 11.4 runs on average. Also, the Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these teams in Texas. Bet the Over.
Ray Monohan
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs
Chicago will try to right the ship on Monday after losing a home-opening series to the Bucs. Today they host the Arizona Diamondbacks, who were snowed out on Sunday in Colorado. Cubs RH Randy Wells (2010: 8-14, 4.26 ERA) vs. D-backs LH Joe Saunders (2010: 9-17, 4.47 ERA). I like the Cubbies on Monday as Wells has excelled against the D-backs, posting a 2-0 mark with a 3.46 ERA in his career. Saunders struggled this Spring allowing 24 earned runs in 17 1/3 innings, Gibson said Saturday he's confident with Saunders on the mound. We'll see. Trends I like for this one include, Cubs are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter, are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter. Cubs are 5-1 in their last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The Diamondbacks are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings in Chicago, and are 0-6 in the last 6 meetings.
Black Widow
1* on Detroit Tigers +120
The Baltimore Orioles are off to a 3-0 start this season, but as a result they are overvalued in Game 1 of this series with the Detroit Tigers. We'll take the value here on the road team behind Rick Porcello. Baltimore's Jake Arrieta went 6-6 with a 4.66 ERA over 18 starts as a rookie last season. While Baltimore was able to limit Tampa Bay's bats, it could have its hands full with a Detroit team coming off an offensive outburst. The Tigers (1-2), who scored a combined nine runs in two losses to open the season, avoided a sweep by defeating the New York Yankees 10-7 on Sunday. Baltimore only hit .222 as a team while sweeping the Rays last series. Porcello went 6-2 with a 3.51 ERA over his final 10 starts last season, and is coming off a solid spring. Baltimore is 9-16 (-13.8 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons. Porcello is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA in two career starts against the Orioles. Take the Tigers on the Money Line.
Info Plays
3* Brewers -102
Reasons why Milwaukee will cover:
1) The Brewers failed to get a win in their three game series against the Reds over the weekend, and will be extremely motivated to get on the board with a win today against the Braves.
2) Milwaukee is 21-8 in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
3) Play against any team (Braves) - good team from last season who won 54% to 62% of their games, after a win. It's 110-81 over the last 5 seasons.
SPORTS WAGERS
Atlanta –102 over MILWAUKEE
Brandon Beachy earned a spot in the Atlanta rotation and with good reason. He's had a fantastic spring in which he threw 20 frames and allowed just 12 hits and two runs for an ERA of 0.90. The youngster has outstanding command and in those 20 spring innings he whiffed 21 and walked four. He became a top prospect last season after posting a 148/28 K/BB in the high minors. Beachy will face a Brewers team that has opened the year 0-3 while hitting a paltry .223 at Great American Ballpark. By contrast, Cincinnati hit a robust .350 against Milwaukee pitching. The Brewers have never seen Beachy and that works to his advantage. Chris Narverson had an inconsistent 2010 season. He has upside but once again it appears as though the Brewers pen is a mess and that puts a whole lot of pressure on these young starters. Narverson finished '10 with a 4.99 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. In April last year, Narverson posted an ERA of 6.60 and he would’ve been the teams fifth starter had Zack Greinke not been injured. As it stands now he’s #4 in the rotation and all the pressure in the world will be on him to get the Brewers their first win in front of a sellout crowd in Milwaukee. Beachy could dominate, Narverson won’t and chances are the Brew Crew will have to wait until another day to earn its first ‘W’. Play Atlanta –102 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
N.Y. YANKEES –1½ +136 over Minnesota
The Twins turn into the Bad News Bears every time they play in New York. The Yanks have won all four postseason series between the teams since 2003, and last year’s sweep extended its playoff winning-streak over the Twins to nine games. Over the past two regular seasons the Twins have dropped 11 of 13 to the Yankees in New York. The Twinkies dropped two of three in Toronto on the weekend and hit a combined .198 while scoring eight times. The Yanks scored 23 runs in three games at home against the Tigers. With a mid-40s fly-ball% rate and high hr per 9 innings over the past two years, Minnesota’s Scott Baker could be in for a long night. The Yanks have torched Baker at Yankee Stadium over the years and this Yankee line-up is lethal. Ivan Nova might be overvalued given his strong spring. Most of his skills last year with New York were middling at best. That said, he’ll win games because he pitches for the Yanks and his strong 53% ground-ball rate limits his downside. This has little to do with backing Nova and more to do with the Yankees being inside Minnesota’s kitchen. Play: New York Yankees –1½ +136 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit +116 over BALTIMORE
Losing two of three in New York to open the year is nothing to be dejected about and winning yesterday has the Tigers feeling pretty good coming into this series. The Tigers still scored 19 runs in the three-game set and batted a combined .283. The O’s are feeling great after a sweep in Tampa but the Rays hit .132 in the three-games and that’s the main reason the O’s are 3-0. Baltimore hit just .222 in the series. Enter Jake Arrieta to pitch the Orioles home opener. This guy is so risky as the chalk and should be avoided because of a 6-6 record and 4.66 ERA in 100 IP for Baltimore last year. Arrieta struggled to adjust to the Majors and couldn't get lefties out. Also, he's trying to rehab a sore elbow instead of having surgery. Does that ever work? Rick Porcello started to figure things out in the second half last year. He had very good numbers, good command and a strong groundball profile. The dominance is still not there but at age 22, he's got both time and the pedigree to develop into more than a sinkerball pitcher. When his light turns on, it could happen fast and surely he’s not the second best starter in this matchup. Play: Detroit +116 (Risking 2 units).
Nelly
Milwaukee Brewers + over Atlanta Braves
A lot of confidence has been lost with the 0-3 start for the Brewers but this is still a team that is a serious threat to make the playoffs. Milwaukee had to open the season in Cincinnati and the Reds are again a dangerous team. Milwaukee had the Reds beat in the first game but the ninth inning collapse changed the trajectory of the series. Milwaukee has historically been an outstanding team at Miller Park and the offense has been hitting even with the 0-3 start as the key members of the lineup: Rickie Weeks, Casey McGehee, Ryan Braun, and Prince Fielder are all hitting over .300. The pitching has not been great but Chris Narveson presents a quality left-handed arm and he was successful last season for the Brewers, including an excellent outing in Atlanta last season. The Braves have a lot of publicity heading into this season but this is still a team that has been questionable on the road and against left-handed pitching in recent years. The Braves opened the season 2-1 but they played in Washington and the first game of the series certainly could have gone either way. Atlanta lost the middle game against left-hander John Lannan who they had just one run and five hits against so the issues against left-handed pitching could again be present for the Braves. Brandon Beachy is a quality prospect for the Braves but his three big league starts have featured nine runs allowed with seven walks in only 15 innings. Miller Park is not a friendly pitching venue and this will be a tough draw for the 25-year old to start the season. Don't overreact to what has happened in just one series as the Brewers should be able to score some runs and provide a full Miller Park with plenty to cheer about.
Sean Murphy
Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees
PICK: New York Yankees
We've faded the Twins in each of their first three games this season, going 2-1 with the lone loss coming by a single run yesterday.
This is a fine spot to go against Minnesota again - as it heads to the Bronx to open a four-game series against the Yankees.
Twins manager Ron Gardenhire summed up his team's mentality on this season-opening road trip.
“Some people say it’s great to get them out of the way, but… it might not be that great to get them out of the way. We just have to play - play the schedule out. We just want to survive and get to our home field.”
They certainly looked like a team that was just 'playing the schedule out' over the weekend - outscored by a 22-8 margin in Toronto. They were fortunate to avoid the sweep yesterday as the Blue Jays couldn't score with two on and none out in the seventh inning, nor could they cash in with the bases loaded and two out in the ninth.
We saw one of the Twins biggest weaknesses on full display in Toronto. Their bullpen is a bit of a work-in-progress after losing a pair of key arms in Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier in the offseason. Joe Nathan is back in the closer's role after missing last season, but he was shaky at best in his first appearance on Sunday. All told, the Twins 'pen has posted a 6.55 ERA and 2.09 WHIP in 11 innings of work this season.
The Yankees couldn't sweep the Tigers, dropping a 10-7 decision on Sunday. However, their bats stayed hot, pounding out 12 hits in a losing effort.
I'm not convinced that Scott Baker can slow down this loaded Yankee lineup. In his lone start here at Yankee Stadium last year, Baker was tagged for 10 hits and five runs in six innings. The Twins lost that game 8-4. Baker struggled to keep his pitch count down much of last season. He failed to last through the sixth inning in 13 of his 29 starts. This is a nightmarish matchup against a patient Yankees squad.
Ivan Nova gets the call for New York. He appeared in 10 games last year, recording a 4.50 ERA in 42 innings of work. This is a favorable matchup for him as the Twins have yet to round into form at the plate. Justin Morneau is still working his way back from a concussion that cost him most of last season. He has just one hit in 10 at-bats, and that came on a broken bat squibber yesterday afternoon. Joe Mauer is 1-for-7 to start the season.
Thanks to a yeoman-like effort from Bartolo Colon yesterday, the Yankee bullpen is in fine shape entering Monday's game. The same can't be said for the Twins after they used four different relievers on Sunday.
The Yankees have quite simply dominated the Twins here in the Bronx over the years, going 30-6 in their last 3L6 meetings at Yankee Stadium. Look for that dominance to continue on Monday. Take New York.
Michael Cannon
Pittsburgh at ST. LOUIS (-1', +125)
Take the Cardinals on the run line tonight against the Pirates.
The Bucs are off to a surprising 2-1 start while the Cardinals are dealing with some issues. So why would I want to take St. Louis on the run line?
Because Charlie Morton is pitching for the Pirates.
Morton had one of the worst seasons as a starter in baseball history last year for the Bucs. The right-hander was 2-12 with a 7.57 ERA last season. He has a good fastball but he lacks command of it and he also, not surprisingly, struggles with his confidence.
Pitching in St. Louis against the likes of Albert Pujols doesn’t figure to boost his self esteem.
The Cards will counter with Kyle Lohse, who is 5-1 with a 3.41 ERA in nine career games against Pittsburgh.
Take the Cardinals on the run line as they win comfortably.
3♦ ST. LOUIS -1.5
Karl Garrett
Pittsburgh at ST. LOUIS (-170)
As for your comp play for Monday, it is an 11-5-2 free play run my last 18, and tonight I will play the over between the Pirates and the Cardinals.
Pittsburgh was able to plate 14 runs while allowing 12 runs to score in their opening weekend set at Wrigley Field. That tells me that the Bucs could be getting a few more tonight at Busch.
St. Louis' offense has been a little quiet to open the season with just 8 runs coming home in their 3 games thus far. Look for the Redbirds to get some offense cranking against Charlie Morton who went 0-8 with an ERA of 9 on the road last season.
Kyle Lohse will counter, and his season ERA last year was in the high 6's.
Not saying that you can count on either hurler to duplicate those results this year, but I am saying there is a strong chance both will yield a few runs based on their past track records.
Take the over tonight in Pittsburgh-St.Louis.
3♦ OVER
Stephen Nover
Minnesota at N.Y. YANKEES (-1', +125)
I won my Sunday free selection with the Wizards, a huge underdog that won straight-up against Charlotte.
I'm turning to baseball for my Monday comp play. I'm going to take a plus price with the Yankees laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line hosting Minnesota.
The Yankees dominate the Twins, AL Central foes and right-handers at home, especially those who give up a lot of homers like Scott Baker does.
The Yankees own the Twins at Yankee Stadium having defeated them 30 of the past 36 times there. Minnesota has lost eight of its past 10 overall road games going back to last season.
New York also is 52-19 versus AL Central foes and 74-27 in their last 101 home contests when facing a right-handed starter.
Baker is ill-suited pitching at homer-friendly Yankee Stadium being an extreme flyball pitcher. He's yielded at least 20 homers during each of the last three seasons.
The Yankees ranked No. 1 in runs and RBI's last year and hit the third-most homers with 201 last year. The Twins already have bullpen fatigue issues with their relievers throwing 11 innings in the first three games.
The Twins will be facing 24-year-old right-hander Ivan Nova, who had a 1.80 ERA in spring training. Minnesota is 1-7 in its last eight road games when going against a right-handed starter.
Taking the Yankees on the run line shouldn't be a problem. New York has won by two or more runs in 48 of its last 54 home victories.
3♦ N.Y.. YANKEES -1.5
Chuck O'Brien
Minnesota at N.Y. YANKEES (-150)
Now to today’s complimentary selection, and it comes in baseball, where I’m on an 8-2 run with free plays after the Royals got it done Sunday). Today, let’s take the OVER in the Twins-Yankees game from the Bronx.
New York’s first three games of the season (all against the Tigers) flew over the total, including the last two by scores of 10-6 and 10-7, with a total of 14 home runs hit in the series (three of them by Yankees slugger Mark Teixeira, who is a notoriously slow starter). Today, Teixeira and the rest of the Bronx Bombers get to take their hacks against Minnesota right-hander Scott Baker, who has given up 20 or more home runs in each of the last three seasons.
Baker did shut down the Yankees last May, allowing just three hits in five scoreless innings of a game New York eventually won 1-0. But the kicker is that game was in Minnesota. Eleven days earlier in his first start at new Yankee Stadium, Baker got lit up for five runs on 10 hits in six innings, losing 8-4. And his previous start against New York in July 2009, Baker allowed five runs on nine hits in three innings, losing 10-2 at home. In other words, l like New York’s chances to add to the 23 runs it scored over the weekend.
At the same time, I’m confident the Twins – who scored just XX runs in a weekend series in Toronto – will get their offense cranked up against young New York right-hander Ivan Nova. A prized Yankees prospect, Nova pitched in 10 games last year (seven starts) and went 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA, but in his final three starts he allowed 13 runs (12 earned) in 14 innings. All three of those games went over the total (scores of 8-7, 8-6 and 7-3), and three of Nova’s four home starts last year topped the total.
Finally, when you check the trends, you’ll see that the over went 5-2 in Baker’s last seven starts in 2010, the over is 26-10-1 in Minnesota’s last 37 series-openers, and New York is on “over” runs of 19-7-1 overall, 8-3 against N.L. Central squads, 6-0 at home and 6-0 in series-openers.
3♦ OVER
Bobby Maxwell
Seattle (+140) at TEXAS
For my comp selection, the Mariners continue their road trip to open the season today in Texas after winning two of three in Oakland over the weekend. I like lefty Erik Bedard and think he’ll deliver a strong outing tonight for Seattle. Grab the plus-money with the Mariners.
Bedard returns to the mound after missing the last year and a half with arm injuries. He last pitched in July 2009 when he was 5-3 with a 2.82 ERA for the Mariners. Throughout his career, he’s been a very good April pitcher, going 13-5 with a 3.88 ERA in the opening month of the season. He is 4-2 in his career against the Rangers with a 3.12 ERA. Back in 2009, the Mariners won five of Bedard’s last six road starts.
The Mariners took three of the last four against the Rangers last year when Texas was in playoff mode.
Alexi Ogando goes for the Rangers tonight and we saw him in relief appearances throughout the playoffs last year. He was in 44 games as a rookie with no starts and went 4-1 with a 1.30 ERA. This will be his first major league start and you know the lanky right-hander will have some nerves. He rarely even pitched a full inning last year, much less several innings.
I’m going to grab the plus-money with a Mariners’ squad that has come out of the gates hitting the ball well. Look for them to keep it up tonight. Play Seattle.
2♦ SEATTLE
Derek Mancin
Seattle (+140) at TEXAS
Who knows if he'll stay healthy, but right now Eric Bedard is at 100% and if his Spring is any indication of how his season will go, I'm seeing tremendous value in the veteran southpaw. Although his last Spring start was a bit ugly, his first 5 starts were nothing short of excellent, going 3-1 with a 1.13 ERA! He looked confident, and the 18 K's in 20 innings ain't bad either. This Texas offense, albeit known for their prowess against lefties in Arlington, will have their hands full tonight.
On the other side we've got the Rangers southpaw Derek Holland, who was nothing better than average last season going 3-4 with a 4.08 ERA in 14 games (10 starts). His career 3.63 ERA in 6 games against Seattle (2 starts, 4 relief appearances) is unimpressive. Not to mention, he had a hell of time this Spring, going 2-1 with a 6.38 ERA in 5 starts. Of course, the Spring isn't always an indicator of regular season success, but he definately had issues (30 hits in 18 1/3 innings).
Finally, there's no question we're seeing some overpricing here following the Rangers 3-games sweep of the Red Sox. It's understandable, but I'm not ready to declare the Rangers world-beaters just yet. If Bedard can continue to pitch well (as we saw in the Spring), then this is going to be a much tougher match up than the number is indicating. Solid value here with the Mariners. Seattle with Bedard over Texas and Holland Monday night.
2♦ SEATTLE
Craig Davis
Seattle at TEXAS (-160)
Today's free play is on the Seattle/Texas game to go OVER the posted total of 9.
6, 1, 5, 12, 12, 7, 2, 9, 3, and 6. Those numbers represent the total number of runs for the Texas Rangers last year each time the Mariners visited the Ballpark in Arlington. 63 runs in 10 games... or 6.3 runs per game for the home team.
Tonight, against Erik Bedard, I expect the Rangers to score at least that many runs.
If that's the case, Seattle needs only a few to push this game over the total, and that's exactly where I believe this game is headed.
Seattle is 2-1 to start the season after taking two of three in Oakland while the Rangers are 3-0 after a home sweep of the Boston Red Sox. If Texas can hit Lester, Lackey and Bucholz like that... what chance does Bedard have tonight?
Seattle scored 6 and 5 runs in the first two games of the series with Oakland before being held to just 1 Sunday... but then again, Gio Gonzalez is a stud and I believe he's actually the ace of that staff.
Texas probably wins this game too, but I expect to see a lot of runs scored in this one.
3♦ OVER
Scott Delaney
Seattle at TEXAS (-150)
Twenty-six runs bolstered by 34 hits and 11 home runs in a three-game sweep of the American League-favored Boston Red Sox?
Welcome to the 2011 season, Texas Rangers.
Looks like that scorching .301 the Rangers hit in spring training was no fluke, as they carried it over to the opening weekend, as they battered the Crimson Hose by a combined score of 26-11.
And in come the, ahem, Mariners.
Seattle might have went 2-1 in Oakland, surprising the American League West favorites, but it continues its opening to the campaign by staying on the road, and this might be the last stadium the M's want to be in.
Texas is looking to open 4-0 for the first time in 15 years, and I don't see it being a problem against Erik Bedard. I won't list either pitcher, but I'm thinking Bedard will be pitching a little tentative after undergoing a couple of shoulder surgeries and missing all of last season.
Tonight will be his first start since July 25, 2009, and if the Rangers get to him early, I guess my biggest question is his durability and confidence.
The Rangers have won seven of the last 12 meetings, but near the close of last season, the Mariners took two of three in Arlington. And believe it or not, things like that don't go away.
Look for the red-hot bats of Texas to make amends for that late-season series, and continue its hot streak from opening weekend.
Lay the chalk here with straight action - no listed pitchers.
5♦ RANGERS