SPORTS ADVISORS
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
(at Indianapolis)
(5) Butler (33-4, 17-20 ATS) vs. (1) Duke (34-5, 23-13-2 ATS)
Upstart Butler takes its 25-game SU winning streak into what amounts to a home game at Lucas Oil Stadium when it faces the much more heralded Blue Devils in the championship game.
Coming off upsets of No. 1 seed Syracuse and No. 2 seed Kansas State in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight, respectively, the Bulldogs knocked out fellow fifth seed Michigan State 52-50 Saturday night in the Final Four. Butler narrowly covered as a 1½-point favorite, once again relying on its stout defense to advance. On their five-game march to the title contest, the Bulldogs haven’t let a single opponent reach 60 points, allowing an average of 55.2 ppg while scoring 61.8 ppg.
For the season, the Bulldogs rate ninth in the country in scoring defense (59.4 ppg), and they’ve held 12 of 13 opponents under 60 points. However, Butler’s Big Dance success comes despite shooting just 39.7 percent in the Tournament, while yielding 41.9 percent shooting, and getting outrebounded by four per game (31.8-27.8).
Butler big man Matt Howard suffered a mild concussion in Saturday’s win over Michigan State and he’s expected to be a game-time decision.
Duke moved to 5-0 SU and ATS in this year’s Tourney by hammering second-seeded West Virginia 78-57 as a 2½-point chalk Saturday night. The Blue Devils have won nine in a row SU (6-3 ATS), with the last eight coming on neutral floors (the ACC tournament and the Big Dance). In its five Tourney starts, Duke has outscored its competition by exactly 17 ppg (73.4-56.4), shooting 45.1 percent from the floor and allowing 39.2 percent shooting (27.6 percent from three-point range).
A major key for Mike Krzyzewski’s troops has been rebounding, as they average about seven more per game than their opponents on the year (35.8-29.1). In the Tourney, the margin jumps to more than 10 rebounds per game on average, with Duke grabbing 36.8 and allowing 26.4.
Butler, in its fourth straight Tournament and 10th overall, is at the last stage of a milestone season, reaching the Elite Eight, Final Four and title game for the first time in school history. The Bulldogs will play the final just a few miles away from their Indianapolis campus.
On the flip side, Duke has made 34 Tournament appearances, including 14 in a row, and it is a No. 1 seed for the 11th time overall and the sixth time this decade. However, this is the Blue Devils’ first championship game since 2001, when they beat Arizona 82-72 for Coach K’s third national crown.
These teams met seven years ago in regular-season play, with Duke rolling to an 80-60 victory as a hefty 14-point home chalk.
Butler is 6-3 SU (5-4 ATS) at neutral venues this year, outscoring teams by a bucket per game on average (65.3-63.3) while getting outshot 44.3 percent to 39.5 percent. Duke is a superb 12-0 SU and 9-3 ATS on neutral floors this season, all as a chalk, outscoring opponents by nearly 15 ppg (71.7-56.8).
The Bulldogs struggled against the number throughout the regular season, going 12-18 ATS. However, they’ve now cashed in five of their last six overall and are on further ATS rolls of 5-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 8-3 in the Tournament (4-1 this year), 44-21-1 outside the Horizon League, 4-1 against the ACC, 20-6 as an underdog, 15-6 as a neutral-site pup and 7-2-1 on Monday.
Likewise, along with their 5-0 ATS surge in the Big Dance (all as a favorite), the Blue Devils are on pointspread upswings of 4-0 against teams with a win percentage above .600 and 7-3-1 following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Butler is on an 11-6 “over” run at neutral sites, but it also carries a host of “under” trends, including 9-1 overall (4-0 last four), 7-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 6-1 in non-conference contests, 4-1 on Monday and 5-2 as a Tournament pup. Similarly, Duke is on “under” sprees of 12-5 overall (all as a chalk), 19-8 on neutral courts, 7-3 on Monday, 11-5 after a SU win and 13-6 in when laying points in the Big Dance.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE and UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Francisco at Houston
The Giants trot out two-time N.L. Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum (15-7, 2.48 ERA in 2009) when they open the season at Minute Maid Park against veteran Astros ace Roy Oswalt (8-6, 4.12).
San Francisco finished third in the N.L. West last season at 88-74, but showed some promise at the end of the season, winning six of their last seven overall and four straight against right-handed starters. However, while the Giants had the best home record in the National League last year (52-29), they were 36-45 on the highway. They’re also just 2-5 in their last seven as a road favorite and 1-4 in their last five against the N.L. Central.
Houston placed fifth in the six-team N.L. Central a year ago at 74-88, going just 4-16 down the stretch. A nine-game losing streak in mid-September essentially eliminated the Astros from any playoff contention. They were 44-37 at Minute Maid Park, but they went 5-16 in their last 21 games as an underdog in 2009.
San Francisco took four of six from the Astros last season, including two of three at Minute Maid. However, in 2008, the Astros went 7-1 against the Giants, including 4-0 in Texas.
Lincecum was just 3-4 in his final seven starts last year, but he closed things with a 7-3 home win over Arizona, going seven innings and giving up two runs on two hits while striking out seven. With Lincecum pitching, San Francisco is on runs of 11-5 as a favorite, 5-0 on Monday and 4-1 in series-openers, but the Giants did lose five of his final six road starts. In fact, the lanky right-hander was just 5-5 with a 3.21 ERA in 15 starts on the highway in 2009.
For his career, Lincecum is 2-0 with a 1.67 ERA in five starts versus the Astros, giving up eight runs (six earned) in 32 1/3 innings. In last year’s lone start against Houston, he scattered three hits and two walks while striking out nine in seven scoreless innings, with the Giants rolling 9-0 at home.
Oswalt’s season ended on Sept. 15 at Cincinnati when he went just five innings and gave up four runs on six hits in five innings. The right-hander allowed 10 runs on 16 hits in just seven innings over his final two starts of the season, both of which Houston lost. Still, with Oswalt on the hill, the Astros are on impressive streaks of 10-4 overall, 62-24 at home, 42-14 against the N.L. West, 4-1 as a home ‘dog and 13-3 on Monday.
At home last season, Oswalt was 3-3 with a 4.12 ERA in 78 2/3 innings of work, but his lifetime numbers at Minute Maid Park are still a stellar 75-25 with a 2.80 ERA. He made one start against the Giants and was dominant, giving up one run on three hits over eight innings while striking out six in a 7-1 road victory. For his career, Oswalt is 5-5 with a 3.70 ERA in 13 starts against San Francisco.
San Francisco finished the 2009 season on “under” runs of 7-3-1 overall, 5-2-1 against right-handers and 12-5-1 as a road favorite. For Houston, the “under” is 14-3-1 when Oswalt pitches the first game of a series and 6-1-1 in his last eight starts Monday, plus as a team, the Astros are on further “under” streaks of 48-23-3 at home against right-handers, 19-7 as an underdog and 37-18-3 on Mondays.
These two teams have topped the total in five of their last seven head-to-head matchups.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Minnesota at L.A. Angels
A pair of 2009 division winners square off on opening day when the Twins sends Scott Baker (15-9, 4.36 ERA) to the mound at Angel Stadium opposite the Angels’ Jered Weaver (16-8, 3.71).
Minnesota (87-76) was swept out of the playoffs in the divisional round by the Yankees after winning five straight games to close the regular season, including a 6-5, 12-inning victory over Detroit in a one-game playoff to determine the A.L. Central champ. As a team, Minnesota closed the 2009 season on streaks of 17-7 overall, 7-1 in series openers and 21-7 against right-handed starters, but they struggled on the road, going 38-45 (playoffs included).
Los Angeles (97-65) won the A.L. West and destroyed the Red Sox in the divisional series before falling to the eventual World Series champion Yankees in six games in the A.L. Championship Series. For the second year in a row, the stadium didn’t matter much to the Angels, who were virtually as good on the road (48-33) and they were at home (49-32). Mike Scioscia’s club finished last season on solid runs of 12-5 overall, 8-2 at home, 11-1 as a favorite and 5-2 in series openers.
Minnesota won the first three meetings with Los Angeles last year, but the Angels took six of the final seven, including a three-game sweep in Minneapolis over the summer in which they outscored the Twins 35-15. In fact, the winning team in this series has scored in double digits in each of the last five games and in six of the 10 meetings last season.
Also in this rivalry, the home team had been on an eight-game winning streak before the visitor took the last four in 2009. Still, the Angels are 23-9 in the last 32 meetings in Southern California.
Baker’s final start last year came in the one-game playoff against Detroit, and he allowed three runs on six hits to keep the Twins in the contest. The right-hander won four of his final five road starts last season and went 9-4 with a 4.17 ERA on the highway. He’s made seven career starts against the Angels, going 0-4 with a 5.59 ERA, with all four losses coming at Angel Stadium, where he’s allowed 22 runs in 33 2/3 innings (5.88 ERA).
The Twins are just 2-8 in Baker’s last 10 starts as an underdog, but they are 9-2 in his last 11 outings overall and 6-1 in his last seven when he faces A.L. West squads.
Weaver made two playoff starts in October at home and allowed just four runs in 12 1/3 innings (2.92 ERA), beating the Red Sox and getting a no-decision in his team’s 5-4 win over the Yankees. He also pitched 1 1/3 innings of relief against New York without allowing a run. It’s been all positive streaks when Weaver starts for the Angels, including 19-8 overall, 36-15 at home and 36-17 as a home favorite.
Including the three playoff outings, Weaver was dominant at home last season, going 11-3 with a 2.81 ERA in 20 appearances (19 starts). For his career, the right-hander is 3-1 with a 3.51 ERA in six starts against the Twins, with the Angels winning all three of his home starts versus Minnesota.
The Twins are on “under” runs of 10-4-1 in series openers, 4-0-1 on Monday and 11-4-2 as an underdog. Likewise, the Angels finished last year on “under” streaks of 33-16-2 overall, 20-8-2 as a favorites, 13-3 in series openers and 8-0 against A.L. Central squads. Also, with Weaver on the bump, the under is on streaks of 6-0-2 overall, 5-0-2 as a favorite and 20-8-1 against A.L. Central squads.
However, the “over” is 12-3-2 in the last 17 meetings in this series and 6-0-1 in the last seven clashes at Angel Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
Sean Higgs
San Francisco Giants vs. Houston Astros
Play: Over 7
Everyone loves Lincecum, but he has been a bit off this spring. I normally don't fret with big time pitchers struggling in spring, but his frail body gives me a warning flag. Oswalt is a bit banged up himself. There are no decent middle-relievers hanging out in this stadium tonight.
Cajun Sports
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves -125
The 2010 MLB season opens for the Cubs and Braves in Atlanta on Monday as the Braves host play host. The Cubs will send Carlos Zambrano to the bump while the Braves send Derek Lowe. Both teams appear to have made decent moves as well as some young talent for the Braves give both teams reason for optimism this season. This has not been the best situation for the Cubs as they are 8-27 when installed as an underdog of 150 or less last season. Chicago is 19-42 their last 61 as an underdog and 17-38 their last 55 as a road dog. Zambrano is 2-3 when starting against Atlanta with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.500. Lowe is 3-1 when taking the bump against the Cubs with an ERA of 3.15 and a WHIP of 1.218. The Braves are 7-1 in Lowes last 8 starts when installed as a home favorite. We will back the host as the Braves get their first win of the season in manager Bobby Cox swan song. Lay the chalk with the Braves on Monday over the Cubs.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Atlanta Braves 3 Chicago Cubs 1
Rob Vinciletti
Minnesota Twins vs. LAA Angels
Play: LAA Angels -126
The Angels have J.Weaver going tonight in their home opener. In his home starts vs the Twins Weaver has been very good winning all three starts. The Twins send rigth hander S.Baker to the hill to open things up. Baker has struggled vs the Angels. In his team starts he is 1-6. When pitching here in Los Angels he is 1-4 with an era over five. The Perception is that with all the losses that the Angles will not be as potent as in years past. However they do have a potent pitching staff and can still be a factor, especially at home where they have excelled. Look for the Angels to win their home opener vs the Twins. On Monday I have the NCAAB Championship winner that also has a big 15-0 Power angle that applies on our team. We have had another banner postseason in college tournament play and we close it out tonight with this big winner. In MLB I Have a Solid Pitching mismatch Dominator play. Bases has been real good the past few years and on Opening day we pick up where we left off. Jump on and start the week right. For the free play take the Angels tonight. RV
David Chan
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks -170
Haren is a very good pitcher, but he’s an excellent first half pitcher. Here’s last year’s splits: 1st half: 7-5, 2.19 ERA, 0.81 WHIP; 2nd half: 7-5, 4.09 ERA, 1.20 WHIP. The difference last year, as it sometimes is between his splits, was walk rate. The Ks are always there but as the season moves along he tires and his control suffers—making him almost human.
Arizona is going to score some runs this year and there’s no reason not to jump aboard straight away. The Padres’ Opening Day starter appears to be Jon Garland. Garland is competent, but struggles to strike people out (203 IP, 105 K last year, which was typical). An ace that can’t bail himself out of jams is not an ace at all.
JIM FEIST
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS / HOUSTON ASTROS
TAKE: HOUSTON ASTROS
If you are going to go against Tim Lincecum, then early in the season is the best time to do it. Last year Linecum started off slowly and then caught fire. Lincecum has battled a cut finger in the spring but in his last tuneup against the A's minor leaguers he look very good. Meanwhile, Houston's pitcher Roy Oswalt has battled his own health issues. Oswalt has some hamstring problems which are due to a lower back issue. Word is that Oswalt will likely be pitching in some kind of pain all season. The veteran pitcher gave up two runs on four hits over 5 2/3 innings Wednesday in a Class A game. Not many people expect much from this Houston club this year. However, they do have a very veteran ballclub and the starting pitching will have to bounce back from an injury plagued 2009 season. The Giants could contend this year for the NL West with the Rockies and Dodgers. But, I will be taking the home dog here on opening day as I don't expect a great start out of Lincecum.
Sam Martin
Florida Marlins at New York Mets
Play: Florida Marlins
We’ll back the small underdog here behind Johnson against Santana and the Mets. While we’re not sure what we are going to get from Santana this season, we know that Johnson does very well in the underdog role, owning a very profitable 13-4 team start record when listed as the dog. And interestingly enough, Santana’s last two starts against the Marlins came opposite of Johnson. Florida won both meetings, first as a +125 dog, and more recently as a nice +160 pup.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals
Zach Greinke looks to build upon a fantastic 2009 season and will get the start this afternoon at home against Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers. Greinke normally pitches well early in the season, and in fact he owns a very good 9-1 team start record in the month of April. That’s even more impressive considering he’s on Kansas City as opposed to the Yankees or Red Sox! Detroit doesn’t usually perform well in this road underdog role, going just 9-23 as a road underdog of +150 or less. We’ll back the small home favorite here.
BIG AL
Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Over 7.5
The Phils will march out their newest prize pitcher in former Blue Jay righthander Roy Halladay, who the team essentially swapped for lefthander Cliff Lee in a three-team off-season deal which sent Lee to the Mariners. And Halladay couldn't get an easier assignment for his first start in a Phillies uniform as his new team went 15-3 against the lowly Nats in 2009 and seeing as how the Phils are certainly no worse offensively than they were last season, Halladay should get plenty of run support in DC. There was certainly no shortage of runs on either side in most of the games these two played last year in Washington. In nine games played between the Phils and Nats at Nationals Park in 2009, 116 runs were scored (an average of almost 13 runs per game) and only one of those games went under double-digit runs. And considering the Nats should have a better offense than they did last season, the high scores should continue this year. Halladay may be great, but being that it's his first start of the season, he's likely not going to stay in past six or seven innings, and the Philly bullpen is no doubt its only weakness again in 2010. Take the 'over.'
Craig Trapp
Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Colorado Rockies +118
The Rockies have rolled against MIL winning all 6 matchups last year. Two really similar teams when it comes to lineups, but both starting and relief pitching favors COL. Jimenez can absolutely dominate and if healthy this year will challenge for the NL cy young. COL had a magical run last year winning the Wildcard and so far this preseason they look to be back at the same level. Hitters are usually behind pitchers early on specially power hitters like Fielder and Braun. Will take the much better contact hitters of COL and much better pitching of COL as well. Enjoy the Underdog juice here as COL wins easily.
Spartan
SEA -122 vs OAK
Believe you me, I am no Seattle Mariner fan and am not one of those crying foul because Felix Hernandez got beaten out of the Cy Young award by Zack Greinke of the Royals. However, with that said I like Hernandez here taking the ball opening day in Oakland opposing veteran Ben Sheets of the A's.
The A's truly struggled with the Mariners last season in the series to the tune of coming out on the short end in 14 of 19 ballgames. The A's really are playing some poker here in my view inking injury prone Sheets to a one year ten million dollar deal. A healthy Sheets admittedly has tremendous stuff, fact is he has a difficult time staying healthy as Brewer fans can readily testify to. He could be an expensive mistake, much as Gil Meche is proving to be in Kansas City.
Of course guys this is baseball, totally unlike the other sports and anything can happen in one game over a 162 game regular season. Hernandez could get shelled and be in the shower by the second inning. Do I anticipate that? Of course not, I do not typically even favor making baseball wagers on opening day but I see some value here with this short number. This is nothing to jump in with both feet over guys but if you want some diamond action on opening day I feel this is as solid a play as there is on the board. Thanks and best of luck this summer!!
James Patrick Sports
Mariners vs. A's
The Mariners paid a ton of money to Felix Hernandez and he gets the opening day call at Oakland against (RHP) Ben Sheets who missed all of last season with an injury. Seattle is one of Major League Baseball's most improved teams and Hernandez one of the league's top pitching talent and Seattle Mariners get the call as Big Game James Patrick's Opening Day Major League Baseball selection from the Diamond Club.
Karl Garret
Butler vs. DUKE
For Championship Monday, I have to look for this title game to stay UNDER the posted total.
Thus far, Butler has been able to hold all 5 of their opponents to under 60-points total, and their last 4 games have landed UNDER the posted total.
Duke has been able to ring the bell with a pair of OVERS in their last 2 Big Dance games, but is on a 6-3 UNDER run their last 9 games overall.
Of course it is tempting to get caught up in playing the OVER in this title game, but the way the Bulldogs have been 'D"-ing it up, I have to expect the points to once again be at a premium, and I have to expect we are going to see another low-scoring contest in Indianapolis this Monday night.
Take the UNDER.
2♦ UNDER
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Dodgers at PITTSBURGH (+130)
Scored a FREE winner on Sunday night when the Red Sox scored the comeback win over the Yankees, improving my comp record to 77-52-3. Today I have another baseball winner for you as I grab the plus-money with the Pirates hosting the Dodgers in Pittsburgh.
We already know that Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley are the aces of the Dodgers’ staff, so why is right-hander Vicente Padilla starting opening day in Pittsburgh? It’s set up that way so Kershaw will be able to start opening day in Los Angeles, not because Padilla has done anything special in the offseason.
I know Padilla has racked up wins on the road in his career, going 51-41 in opposing parks, but his ERA is a whopping 4.58. He benefited mightily from a productive Rangers’ offense for most of his career, something that isn’t so prevalent here in Los Angeles.
And look at what Padilla does in the first month of the season, he doesn’t exactly come ready to pitch. He is 14-21 in his career in April with a 4.43 ERA. He’s 2-3 in his career against the Pirates and unless the Dodgers produce big runs for him today, he’s not shutting down anybody.
Lefty Zach Duke goes for Pittsburgh after an 11-16 season with a 4.06 ERA. This guy is a completely different pitcher at home as opposed to on the road, as he is 26-24 at home with a 4.11 ERA while on the highway he is 11-31 – ouch. He’ll be fired up for the opening-day nod and I can see him going six or seven strong innings today.
The Pirates aren’t going to be contenders this season but there is a respectable, young nucleus in this lineup, led by CF Andrew McCutchen. These kids need to use their speed and play some defense as they aren’t going have any big boppers in the lineup.
For opening day, I’ll grab the plus-money with the Pirates as Vicente Padilla is not going to scare any of the Pittsburgh hitters.
2♦ PITTSBURGH
Chuck O'Brien
Chicago at ATLANTA (-130)
Monday’s complimentary selection comes in baseball, and I’ll back the Braves at home against the Cubs.
This is a matchup of two veteran pitchers, as Atlanta’s Derek Lowe matches up against Chicago ace Carlos Zambrano. When you look at the history of these two hurlers against their respective opponents, you see that Lowe is 3-1 with a 3.17 ERA in 10 career starts (one playoff) against the Cubs, with his teams (Braves and Dodgers) winning six of the last nine. That includes six straight quality starts (three earned runs or less allowed in at least six innings), with his ERA in those six games a scant 2.53.
As for Zambrano, he’s 2-3 with a 4.48 ERA in 11 career outings versus the Braves, but the Cubs are just 1-6 in the last seven and 2-8 in the last 10. That includes a 2-1 home loss last season, as the Braves won four of the six series meetings, holding the anemic Cubs’ offense to an average of just 2.3 runs per game in those six contests.
2♦ ATLANTA