Jeff Benton
That’s now 15 of 16 freebie winners – including six in a row – as the Spurs scored the outright upset at the Lakers on Sunday. In addition to going 15-1 with my last 16 comp releases and 6-0 with the last six, I’m on runs of 54-23-2, 44-18-2 and 35-13-2 with plays that I’m giving away!
For Monday, I hit the baseball diamond for the first time in 2010 and I’ll take the Pirates as a home underdog against the Dodgers. Frankly, I don’t know what the hell Joe Torre was thinking naming Vicente Padilla as his Opening Day starter when he’s got guys like Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw and Hiroki Kuroda he can hand the ball to.
Sure, Padilla was lights out for Los Angeles down the stretch last year, including in the playoffs. But this has been one of the most erratic pitchers in baseball in recent years, someone who pitches lights out for a couple of starts then goes into a two-month slump. And check out Padilla’s career numbers in April: 14-21 with a 4.43 ERA (it’s actually the only month in which Padilla has a losing record). The right-hander has also had his trouble with the Pirates, going 2-3 with a 5.60 ERA in seven games (four starts) covering 27 1/3 innings.
Last year, on their way to a 95-win season, the Dodgers made one trip to Pittsburgh in late September and lost three of four games. Pittsburgh’s starting pitcher this afternoon, lefty Zach Duke, was on the hill for the series finale, and he dominated the Dodgers, allowing a run on four hits in 8 2/3 innings, leading the Pirates to an 11-1 win.
Two weeks earlier in Los Angeles, Duke was nearly as good, giving up two runs on four hits in 7 1/3 innings. In those two starts, Duke walked one and struck out 13 in 16 total innings, and although the Pirates blew Duke’s gem in L.A. (falling 5-4), they’re still 3-1 in his last four starts against the Dodgers.
Obviously, the Dodgers have the superior talent, but the pitching edge clearly goes to Pittsburgh in this one. So does the emotional/environmental edge, as the Pirates today will likely be playing before one of the largest home crowds it will see all season.
4♦ PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Matt Fargo
Florida Marlins vs. New York Mets
Play: Florida Marlins +110
Early in the season, analysis is going to be very thin as the plays are going to be based on value for the most part. Betting baseball is about finding the value and finding the spots where teams have an advantage over the line and not necessarily over the other team. That may sound strange and against common betting theory but baseball is a completely different betting situation because of the moneyline aspect of it. The Mets are in an early season funk before the season even starts. The offense is in just as bad shape as it ended last season as both Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran are starting the season on the DL. Daniel Murphy is out as well while closer Francisco Rodriguez just returned to the team on Sunday after tending to his injured brother so he is far from there mentally. Monday’s starter Johan Santana had a rough spring and his success against the Marlins is not going to be enough to make him turn the corner right away. Despite posting a 1.29 ERA in two starts against Florida last season, the Mets lost both games. As for the Marlins, I am not sold on their offense but in this matchup it is the better unit. That offense will be behind Josh Johnson who has turned into one of the best pitchers in baseball. While Santana is the big name and has pitched extremely well against the Marlins, Johnson is unbeatable against the Mets. He is 7-0 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in nine starts with Florida going 8-1 in those games. In games pitched in New York Johnson is 3-0 with a 2.52 ERA in four starts, allowing three runs or fewer in each outing. 3* Florida Marlins
Larry Ness
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Detroit Tigers +103
Detroit opens the 2010 season with right-hander Justin Verlander (19-9 with a 3.45 ERA), who also led the majors with 269 strikeouts.The Royals counter with Zack Greinke (16-6 with a 2.16 ERA), last year's Cy Young Award winner in the AL. Verlander is 9-2 (2.32) vs the Royals while Greinke is 9-4 (2.86) vs the Tigers. The Tigers lost a three-game division lead with just four games remaining last season and missed the playoffs with an 86-77 record (lost one-game playoff to the Twins). Meanwhile, the Royals struggled all season, ending 65-97 and with more home losses (48) than any team in MLB. Despite his outstanding season, backing Greinke was a losing proposition last year, as the Royals were just 17-16 (minus-$433) in his starts in 2009. In comparison, the Tigers went 23-12 (plus-$592) with Verlander on the mound. Take the Tigers.
Stephen Nover
Philadelphia at WASHINGTON
I have yet to lose this month on my complementary selections with four straight basketball winners, including the Wizards covering against the Nets on Sunday.
Now it's time to turn attention to baseball where I like the Phillies and National to go over the total.
Yes, I know Roy Halladay is making his Phillies mound debut. Halladay should become the premier pitcher in the National League. But he gave up five earned runs, including two home runs, in seven innings last year to Detroit in his season-opener when he was with Toronto.
The Phillies have a very unsettled bullpen. Closer Brad Lidge and lefty setup man J.C. Romero are both on the DL. Ryan Madison is the closer for now. He's been a good setup man, but has proven unreliable when asked to close. The Nationals' strength is their offense with Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn.
Obviously, though, the main focus of the handicap is how much damage the Phillies can do with nine innings of at bats against starter John Lannan and a totally revamped Nationals bullpen that once again looks highly vulnerable.
Lannan made the Opening Day start for Washington last year and was shelled for six runs on six hits in three innings versus Florida.
The Phillies led the National League in runs scored and homers. The Nationals committed the most errors in the National League.
Even if the Phillies don't do major damage against Lannan, they should be able to get to a Nationals bullpen that consists of shaky closer Matt Capps, Brian Bruney, Miguel Batista, Jason Bergmann, Sean Burnett, Jesse English and Tyler Clippard.
The weather is supposed to be nice with temperatures in the low 70s and little wind.
2♦ PHILLIES/NATIONALS OVER
Michael Cannon
Florida (+105) at NEW YORK METS
Take the Marlins for the road win over the Mets.
It’s always tough to go against Johan Santana, but the Mets are a mess right now and the season hasn’t even started. Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran are both on the DL, and there are even more question marks concerning David Wright and whether or not he can rebound from a poor 2009.
The Marlins will counter with Josh Johnson and I’ll take him at this price everyday.
The right-hander is emerging as one of the best pitchers in the majors and he absolutely owns the Mets in his career.
Johnson is 7-0 with a 2.30 ERA in nine lifetime outings against the Mets.
Take the Marlins as they grab the road win.
4♦ FLORIDA
Brett Atkins
I'm 6-2-1 with my last nine free selections and coming with your first comp baseball winner tonight as I lay the small juice and play the Mariners to get the best of the A's in Oakland.
The Mariners have got some talent in that batting lineup with Ichiro Suzuki, Chone Figgins, Milton Bradley, Franklin Gutierrez and they just hope Ken Griffey Jr. can resemble his former self by driving in some runs.
Oakland is going with Ben Sheets on the hill today, his first game action since the 2008 season. His April numbers are impressive at 14-17 with a 4.09 ERA, so he’s a slow starter anyway, much less coming off a full season missed.
Felix Hernandez goes for the Mariners and he owns the A’s in his career, going 8-4 with two complete games and a 2.88 ERA, and both of those complete games have come in Oakland, where he’s throwing today.
I’ll grab the favorite and play the Mariners tonight.
4♦ SEATTLE
Jay McNeil
Giants (Lincecum) at Astros (Oswalt)
Let's take a look at the Giants tonight, as I'm banking on Timmy Lincecum to roll to solid win over the Astros. He is 2-0 with a 1.67 ERA in five starts against Houston, and will be fired up to get this season underway.
I know the right-hander didn't face a National League team all spring and he came away with a 6.94 Cactus League ERA; but the fact is he looked ready to start the Giants on a good note. Remember, Spring Training is not where you work on your ERA, it's where you work on the pitches you cannot throw well.
And according to reports, he was encouraged by the way his fastball carried, not necessarily the gun readings, hitting the spots he wanted consistently.
It all comes together tonight as he opens the season mixing in his change and both breaking balls to keep the Astros off-balance.
2♦ GIANTS
Joel Tyson
Opening Day in the Steel City, and while I hold no illusions that come the end of September the Pirates will have a better record than the Dodgers, I do believe that just for this day, the Bucs will be better than LA.
Zach Duke has put up some solid numbers against Los Angeles in his recent starts against them, and you never know what you are going to get from Vincente Padilla.
Pittsburgh did win 3 of the 4 series meetings last year at home against Los Angeles, and the price looks right for an underdog play on the Pirates on Opening Day.
Take Pittsburgh.
2♦ PIRATES
Matt Rivers
Take the Dodgers for the road win over the Pirates.
Normally I wouldn’t lay this kind of price on a road team, but the Pirates are a joke and Los Angeles should win easily.
Pittsburgh ranked almost dead last in every offensive category last year, and that included contributions from Adam LaRoche, Nate McClouth, Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez before they were dealt in the Pirates annual fire sale.
Without those players the Pirates went 19-46 after the trade deadline last year, so the price on the Dodgers actually looks like a bargain here.
Take the Dodgers as they grab the road win.
4♦ LA DODGERS
Lee Kostroski
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates +130
After a forgettable season in Texas, Vicente Padilla delivered remarkable results for the Dodgers after being acquired late in the season. The Dodgers are happy to have Padilla back and he will make the opening day start but this season may not go as smoothly. Padilla benefited from the unfamiliarity hitters had with him as well as the move to the National League for a short period of success. In the playoffs when the Phillies had ample time to study him, he was hammered and the Pirates should have a solid game plan against him for this match-up. Padilla’s numbers also were aided by the late season schedule for the Dodgers with few games against high quality offensive teams. Padilla also struggled this spring, allowing 23 hits in just over 17 innings.
Pittsburgh won just 62 games last season but there is reason for some grounded optimism for 2010. Recall that the Pirates started last season strongly and another strong April could be in order. Pittsburgh was also a very respectable 40-41 in home games last season and Pittsburgh went 12-22 in one-run games last year, signifying some tough breaks. The home team won six of seven meetings between these teams last year and recall that the Dodgers did not finish the 2009 season playing great ball, and the record setting home start last season carried them to the playoffs as it was mainly mediocrity for the bulk of the season.
Zach Duke lost 16 games last season but he had a winning record at home and his numbers across the board were significantly stronger at PNC Park. He also featured a stellar 3.22 ERA in day games. The Dodgers were not a great hitting team against left-handed pitching last season with a far worse winning percentage in games against southpaw starters. Duke really cut down on his walk numbers last season and he should not provide the Dodgers with any extra opportunities.
Pittsburgh should also enter the year with an underrated bullpen as the unit did a decent job in 2009 outside of the stretch of meltdowns from former closer Matt Capps. Pittsburgh has significant talent in this lineup and while the Pirates do not project as a contender this could be a team to back at home as an underdog early in the year as most pitchers will have little experience against many of the hitters in the lineup and Pittsburgh is perceived as such a bad team despite really solid results at home last season, featuring superior or equivalent home records to several teams including Milwaukee, Cincinnati, and Atlanta.
DUNKEL INDEX
Butler vs. Duke
The Blue Devils look to take advantage of a Butler team that is coming off a 52-50 win over Michigan State and is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS win. Duke is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Devils favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Duke (-6 1/2)
Game 601-602: Butler vs. Duke
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 69.873; Duke 80.284
Dunkel Line: Duke by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Duke by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-6 1/2)
MLB
Toronto at Texas
The Rangers look to build on their 5-1 record in Scott Feldman's last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Texas is the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Texas (-140)
Game 901-902: Philadelphia at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Halladay) 15.560; Washington (Lannan) 14.464
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-200); Over
Game 903-904: Florida at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Johnson) 15.127; NY Mets (Santana) 16.131
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-120); Under
Game 905-906: St. Louis at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.249; Cincinnati (Harang) 15.579
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+125); Over
Game 907-908: LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Padilla) 14.922; Pittsburgh (Duke) 15.065
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+120); Over
Game 909-910: Colorado at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 14.980; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.285
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-125); Over
Game 911-912: Chicago Cubs at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago Cubs (Zambrano) 13.946; Atlanta 14.567
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-130); Under
Game 913-914: San Diego at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Garland) 14.424; Arizona (Haren) 15.939
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Arizona (-185); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-185); Under
Game 915-916: San Francisco at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 14.214; Houston (Oswalt) 15.139
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+110); Under
Game 917-918: Cleveland at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Westbrook) 14.510; White Sox (Buehrle) 14.399
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+145); Over
Game 919-920: Toronto at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Marcum) 15.380; Texas (Feldman) 16.661
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-140); Over
Game 921-922: Detroit at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 14.585; Kansas City (Greinke) 16.084
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-115); Over
Game 923-924: Minnesota at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Baker) 16.381; LA Angels (Weaver) 16.245
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+110); Over
Game 925-926: Seattle at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 14.922; Oakland (Sheets) 15.726
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+105); Over
EZWINNERS
Duke Blue Devils -7.5
The Butler Bulldogs have the longest winning streak in the nation and they have played great in the NCAA tournament as nobody expected them to make it to the Final Four, let alone the championship game, but they are over matched against the Blue Devils. Duke is going to have a huge advantage in the paint. Butler's only true threat in the paint is Matt Howard and I just don't see how he will stay out of foul trouble against the size of Duke. The Blue Devils offensive rebounding and three point shooting will be too much for Butler to handle. This line seems pretty high at first glance, but I believe it is high for a reason and I expect Duke to roll to a double digit win. The clock is about to strike midnight for the Bulldogs. Lay the points.
Tom Freese
San Francisco Giants at Houston Astros
Prediction: Under
Two of the best pitchers in baseball hook up tonight when Roy Oswalt and Tim Lincecum face each other in Houston. The Astros are 10-1 UNDER their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15. Houston is 19-7 UNDER their last 26 games as underdogs. Oswalt is 14-3-1 UNDER in game one of a series. Houston is 48-23-3 UNDER their last 74 home games vs. a righty starter. San Francisco is 18-6-2 UNDER their last 26 games vs. NL Central teams. The Giants are 12-5-1 their last 18 games as road favorites. Tim Lincecum is 4-1 UNDER as a favorite of -110 to - 150. San Francisco is 15-7-2 UNDER their last 24 games as favorites of -110 to -150. Runs will be hard to come by in this pitching matchup. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Stan Lisowski
ANGELS
Halos are 11-7 in this series, while Weaver is 3-0 at home in starts against the Twins. The Angels were 21-12 in his starts last season, 12-5 in his home outings. Minnesota has dropped 6 of Baker’s 7 starts vs. LA.
Frank Jordan
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Detroit Tigers
Detroit made a lot of moves in the offseason, one good big move was resigning Justin Verlander who is their opening day starter. Kansas City doesn't have much going for them and didn't get much via free agency, but still have the reigning CY Young award winner. In this battle of aces look for Verlander to outduel Kansas City 3-2. Play Detroit