John Ryan
San Francisco Giants vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros
3* graded play on Houston with Oswalt as they host the Giants with Lincecum set to start at 7:05 EST. Oswalt is making his 8 straight opening day start, a club record, for the Astros and for the first time in a long while is nearly 95% healthy. He threw in a minor league stint last Wednesday and pitched with no pain. He had a hamstring strain that doctors later determined was caused by a lower back ailment (bulging disk) that occurred last last season. He received normal treatment and is pain free. He admitted not having his best stuff, but the start was more of a simulation than a real MLB start. SF, despite the additions of DeRosa and Huff will still struggle to score runs against team aces this season. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Houston will win this game. Houston is a solid 11-2 (+9.7 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7.5 or less over the last 3 seasons. Oswalt is 8-0 (+8.6 Units) against the money line against NL West opponents over the last 2 seasons. Huff has never faced him and DeRosa has had strong success against Oswalt batting 481 in 27 AB. Still, DeRosa aside, the Giants have struggled against Oswalt and have not been able to get hits off of him consistently. We are also impressed the strength of the Houston bullpen in support of Oswalt.
Rocketman
Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Seattle -135
Seattle is 5-1 last 3 years when the total is 7 or less. Seattle is 8-3 since 1997 and 3-0 last 3 years on the road when the total is 7 or less. Oakland is 13-27 since 1997 and 3-11 last 3 years when the total is 7 or less. Hernandez is 8-4 with a 2.88 ERA overall vs Oakland since 1997. Mariners are 8-2 in Hernandezs last 10 starts vs. Athletics. Mariners are 4-1 in Hernandezs last 5 road starts vs. Athletics. Mariners are 17-5 in the last 22 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Seattle tonight!
Freddy Wills
Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Seattle Mariners
I love Felix here today as he had a 1.99 ERA on the road last year with a 10-2 record. He also has a 2.16 ERA in the last three years in the month of Arpil. Oakland has not fared to well against the Seattle ace and are likely to struggle on opening night. Ben Sheets will be going for the A's and what will be an interesting match up. Sheets was out all last year and had an 11.20 ERA in the Spring. However, his last two starts combined for 9.1 IP 6 hits and 2 ER. However, starting the regular season will be a big difference. I expect the improved Mariners line up to be able to get to him by the 5th inning.
TEDDY COVERS
Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Seattle Mariners -130
Oakland was a 75 win team last year and they don’t look all that much better heading in to 2010. The A’s clubhouse was rocked over the weekend when Jack Cust, the team’s home run leader in each of the last three seasons, was demoted to Triple A.
Cust: “I think it's messed up. They're going to go on 50 at-bats after three years of what I've done here? It's ridiculous. A lot of other guys have had bad springs. This is a joke. The fact is, this team has no power and they've just released a guy who (averaged 28 homers) the last three years. That's amazing."
Chemistry problems in the A’s locker room is only the tip of the iceberg. Opening day starter Ben Sheets didn’t pitch at all last year, and struggled throughout Cactus League play. A’s outfielder Coco Crisp is starting the season on the DL. The A’s couldn’t produce runs against Felix Hernandez (or most other pitchers) last year, and this offense doesn’t look a whole lot better heading into 2010.
The Mariners went 18-4 in King Felix’s last 22 starts to close out 2009. Hernandez has owned the A’s; 7-2 with a 2.68 ERA over the last three seasons against Oakland. There’s little reason to expect a dramatically different result tonight. 2* Take Seattle.
BEN BURNS
Columbus Blue Jackets @ St. Louis Blues
PICK: St. Louis Blues -170
The Blue Jackets are out of the playoff race. The same isn't quite true of the Blues, as they're still mathematically alive. That makes this a "must win" game for them. Granted, "must win" games most certainly do not always win. However, given the Blues' current play and their history on home ice in this series, they've got a fairly good shot at grabbing the two points.
The Blues are 4-0 their last four games here at St. Louis. They've outscored opponents by an 11-5 margin in those games, including a win over Chicago, one of the best teams in the league.
With the Blues also at 8-1 (+6.4) the last nine times that they hosted the Blue Jackets and the Blue Jackets at 1-13 their last 14 games played in April, let's consider laying the wood.
SEAN MURPHY
Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Seattle Mariners -143
With a cloud of controversy hanging over the Oakland A's following the release of Jack Cust on Saturday, I'll play the Mariners with King Felix on the mound on Monday night.
It's hard to say how much of an effect Cust's release will have on the A's, but I'm fairly certain it won't have a positive one. Here's what the former A's slugger had to say on Saturday.
"I think it's messed up," Cust told an A's beat writer. "They're going to go on 50 at-bats after three years of what I've done here? It's ridiculous. A lot of other guys have had bad springs. This is a joke. The fact is, this team has no power and they've just released a guy who (averaged 28 homers) the last three years. That's amazing."
He's right. The A's are left with little power, and while they do have speed to burn, they're going to have to get on base, and that could prove difficult against Mariners ace Felix Hernandez on Monday.
King Felix didn't have his best stuff in two starts against Oakland last season, but the Mariners still managed to win both games, by a combined 14-9 margin. Note that they're 8-2 in Hernandez's last 10 starts against the A's, including 4-1 in his last five starts in Oakland.
Ben Sheets gets the call for the A's after missing all of last season due to injury. He didn't look sharp during the exhibition schedule, but he's being thrown right into the fire as the team's number one starter. I just don't see this experiment ending well. With Ichiro and newly acquired Chone Figgins at the top of the order, the Mariners have a pair of bonafide table-setters. They're certainly capable of making Sheets' life miserable tonight.
The Mariners got off to a fine start last season, winning seven of their first nine games, including an outright underdog win in their season opener in Minnesota. Even with Cliff Lee starting the year on the D.L., they're still a legitimate contender in the A.L. West. The A's are not. Take Seattle.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on LA Angels -130
I'll side with the better starting pitcher on his home field at a decent price tonight. The Halos have been a money favorite at 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 11-1 in their last 12 games as a favorite overall. Plus, the Twins have had all kinds of trouble on the road against the Angels. In fact, they are just 9-23 in their last 32 road games in this series. Scott Baker is coming off a solid season for the Twins, but it's hard to ignore the fact that the Twins are 1-6 in his last 7 starts versus the Angels. They're also just 1-9 in his last 10 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Angels are 36-15 in Jered Weaver's last 51 home starts. This is a kid that went 10-3 at home last season with an ERA of just 2.90. Take the Angels.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -130
I'll back the two-time N.L. Cy Young Award winner tonight at a solid price for my free selection. The Astros are going to struggle to score runs this season, and that does not bode well for them tonight. Tim Lincecum is 2-0 with a 1.67 ERA and a WHIP of just 0.773 in his career against the 'stros. The Astros finished with 14 less wins than the Giants last season, and they will certainly have their work cut out for themselves against Lincecum, especially without All-Star slugger Lance Berkman in the lineup. The Astros are just 15-37 in their last 52 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. I'll fade them in this price range tonight.
Black Widow
1* on San Diego Padres +175
San Diego has gone 6-1 in their last 7 games as an underdog, and 6-1 in their last 7 games as a dog of +151 to +200. The Padres enter the 2010 season under the radar once again. This team is loaded with more talent than most folks know about, especially offensively where several young guys now have a year of experience under their belt. Blanks, Venable, Cabrera, Hairston and Gwynn are guys that don't get the credit they deserve, and then there's Adrian Gonzalez who remains one of the best power hitters in the business. Remember, the Padres actually won 5 more games than Arizona did last season. This is a very generous line tonight as nearly a 2-to-1 underdog against the Diamondbacks. We'll take the value, and take the Padres with veteran Jon Garland on the mound.
Dave Price
1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -130
I would normally be ready to pull the trigger on Roy Oswalt at home in the underdog role, but with the Astros missing a slugger like Lance Berkman I'll go the other way behind reigning two-time N.L. Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum. While Oswalt is a solid 5-5 with an ERA of 3.70 and a WHIP of 1.355 in his career against the Giants, Lincecum is a dominant 2-0 with an ERA of 1.67 and a WHIP of 0.773 in 5 career starts against the Astros. The Astros are just 8-20 in their last 28 games versus right-handed starters, and they will struggle against one of the best, if not the best, right-handers in baseball tonight.
Jack Jones
Detroit Tigers -105
You'll rarely find Justin Verlander at this price for the Detroit Tigers. Verlander was squarely in the hunt for the AL Cy Young Award last season, but it went to the Royals' Zach Greinke instead. Verlander gets his shot at Greinke on opening day, and there's no question he'll be looking to upstage him Monday. He'll get help from a potent line-up that enters the season healthy. The Royals, on the other hand, have one of the worst line-ups in baseball yet again this season.
Verlander is 9-2 with 2.32 ERA and 1.119 WHIP in 14 career starts against the Royals. It's safe to say that he loves facing this team, and usually dominates. The Tigers are 4-0 in Verlanders last 4 starts during game 1 of a series. The Royals are 1-9 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Royals are 3-7 in Greinkes last 10 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Roll with Detroit on Opening Day at a solid price.
Info Plays
3* on Seattle Mariners -130
Reasons why the Mariners win
1.) Felix Hernandez, a 19-game winner last year, starts the opener for Seattle. This is great news for the Mariners as Hernandez is 8-4 with a 2.88 ERA in his career when facing the Oakland A's. Hernandez is 25-8 (+14.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. Seattle is 42-21 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. There are many questions surrounding Ben Sheets and a return to form on Openind Day is not likely for Oakland's Ace. Bet the Mariners on the road.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -124
I'll back the two-time N.L. Cy Young Award winner tonight at a solid price for my free selection. The Astros are going to struggle to score runs this season, and that does not bode well for them tonight. Tim Lincecum is 2-0 with a 1.67 ERA and a WHIP of just 0.773 in his career against the 'stros. The Astros finished with 14 less wins than the Giants last season, and they will certainly have their work cut out for themselves against Lincecum, especially without All-Star slugger Lance Berkman in the lineup. The Astros are just 15-37 in their last 52 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. I'll fade them in this price range tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
ARIZONA –1½ +1.33 over San Diego
The Padres are the most flawed team in the league and will lose more games than anyone else; that you can bet on. They lost 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, OF Brian Giles and C Henry Blanco. They have one legit star in the line-up in 1B Adrian Gonzalez and he’s not going to get a lot of good pitches to hit. This is a team made up of castoffs and rejects that include David Eckstein, Jerry Hairston Jr., Matt Stairs and today’s starter Jon Garland. That’s right, Jon Garland is the team’s ace and after 10 years in the bigs, Garland’s career ERA is 4.42. When pitching in a hitter’s park like he will today, he’s a big inning waiting to happen. Last year at this park, pitching for Arizona, Garland allowed 110 hits in 98 frames to go along with a BAA of .295. Garland went 1-1 in the spring with a 5.60 ERA. Dan Haren is another one of those true aces and he might strike out 15 today. In 24 spring innings he walked five and struck out 22. The D-Backs are young and they’re talented and could very well contend for the division. This is the biggest mismatch of the day in terms of talent and starters and the Snakes should absolutely run away and hide in this one. Play: Arizona –1½ +1.33 (Risking 2 units).
JR ODonnell
KAN -113 vs DET
Z. Grienke sports a 16-8 home mark last year with a super 2.18 era , Skipper Trey Hillman wants the Royals off to a fast start and the Tigers will be what the doctor ordered this afternoon. We realize the price is alittle cheap here on the Royals but with a stud on the mound and a Let's Win attitude huming in Mizzou we will back the Royals