Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland Indians -118FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cleveland Indians avoided a sweep by Tampa Bay with a 13-0 beat down in their last game. This matchup falls into a system to play on the home team when the money line is +125 to -125 with a team batting average of .265 or less on the season in the American League and coming off a win by 8 runs or more. This system is 30-10 (75%) over the last five seasons.
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The Yankees are plagued by injuries right now with three players on the 60 day disabled list and three more players on the 15 day disabled list. Right now the Yankees are batting an abysmal .242 on the season. Their bullpen is not doing much to help as they have a 6.95 ERA. They will face Cleveland’s Ubaldo Jimenez who started the season with a 1.50 ERA and a 0.833 WHIP.
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Michigan / Louisville Under 138FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Buckets will be hard to come by, The Cards defense will be able to disrupt the guard play from Michigan and both defenses are solid. I have this number power rated at 132 - That is a 6 point overlay. I am playing the under here in what should be a great title game tonight. Pucker Factor x10 for both teams, that always holds the score down in the opening 15 minutes as well, both will approach cautiously with anything crazy on offense as to control the clock and take good shots.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Arizona DiamondbacksFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Diamondbacks have been on fire to start the season and I see no reason why that should stop against the Pirates who are hitting .139 vs. RHP to start the season. Trevor Cahill is backed by one of the best bullpens this year in my opinion and the Pirates were 25th in OPS vs RHP while the Diamondbacks were 8th in OPS vs. LHP. Pirates hitters have just 37 AB with only 6 hits against Cahill in their career while the Diamondbacks have hit Wandy Rodriguez hard with a .800 OPS in 72 AB. He has 3 starts with a 5.17 ERA over the last 3 years against the Diamondbacks and traditionally he has not been a great pitcher on the road.
SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan +171 over LouisvilleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These aren’t the Fab 5 but the Wolverines are still not getting the credit they deserve from the oddsmakers. The Wolverines are 37-18-1 ATS over their past 56 games versus teams with a winning percentage above .600. Michigan has excelled on neutral courts, having gone 9-1 SU and ATS this season in neutral-court games. Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. take care of the ball, which should neutralize the Louisville press, much like the Wolverines did against the VCU press (they made that team look silly). 6-foot-10 freshman forward Mitch McGary has made them an even more complete team with his inside play. McGary’s season stats (7.5 points per game, 3.6 rebounds per game) don't tell the tale, as he's averaged a double-double (16 PPG and 11.6 RPG) in the Wolverines' five tournament games and added six assists against Syracuse. His play helps Michigan narrow the gap on what could have been a concern in this matchup with the way Louisville can pound the ball inside.
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Meanwhile, the Cardinals have failed to cover two of their past three games (against Oregon and Wichita State), and the Cardinals' only cover was against Duke, when they pulled away in the second half after looking like they were in a dogfight until the Kevin Ware injury. They were also lucky to beat Wichita State. That jump ball call in the final seconds when Wichita State grabbed a rebound on a missed free throw with seconds remaining down three was a complete farce but nobody talks about that. We’re not saying the fix was in but we are suggesting that the refs were instructed to give the benefit of calls to the Cardinals should the game be close down the stretch. A Louisville/Michigan final has huge TV ratings implications as oppose to a Michigan/Wichita State final and it’s always about the money. In any event, the Wolverines have been the better team in this tournament. They have better guard play, they have better shooters and a more proficient offense. The Cardinals have an Achilles' heel that should not be overlooked in that teams’ that can fill up the basket give them fits. When facing teams that hit more than 48 percent from the field (Michigan hits 48.3 percent), the Cardinals are 0-6 ATS this season. In a game that should be a pick-em, the Wolverines offer up all the value here and that’s all there is to it.
SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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KANSAS CITY/Minnesota over 8½FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Royals bats woke up in a big way in Philadelphia on the weekend by scoring 26 runs in the three-game set and taking two out of three games. It should’ve been a sweep after Greg Holland blew a two run lead in the ninth after walking the first three batters he faced. The Royals are now 3-3 after going off for 38 hits and 27 runs scored in Philadelphia. It’s unlikely that Kevin Correia will slow them down. Correia was with the Pirates last season and his story wasn’t a good one. It reads as follows: journeyman starting pitcher with a strikeout rate barely higher than his xERA moans about being replaced with his team 15 games over .500 in July for the first time in eons. Good karma is ruined, chaos ensues, team limps to a 21-40 finish and the medicore SP escapes into free agency. The bottom line is that he may not be an upgrade on what the Twins already had on hand, and he isn't likely to be of much value. Correia has a career ERA of 4.53 after pitching 10 years in hitter-friendly venues in San Francisco, San Diego and Pittsburgh.
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Current Minnesota batters have 25 hits in 77 career AB’s (.325) against Ervin Santana. In Santana’s first game of the year he surrendered three bombs to the White Sox and that wasn’t something unusual. Last season, 19% of his fly-balls left the yard. That’s freakish and those bombs plus some poor command caused a 1H mess last year that doesn’t appear to be rectified. Santana’s opening game split was 20% groundballs, 20% line drives and 60% fly-balls. Santana is a pitcher in trouble. The move to Kauffman Stadium won’t affect Santana much since it plays similar to Angel Stadium. He’s not a cold weather pitcher, he can’t keep the ball in the yard and his xERA string shows that this is not an elite skill set. The potential to score mega runs here is large and we can't envision either starter from preventing it.
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ARIZONA -1½ +150 over PittsburghFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We hate to kick a team when they’re down but have no problem taking advantage of the Pirates awful start. Pittsburgh has hit one jack this year and it came in the first inning against the Dodgers yesterday. The Pirates never scored again. In six games, Pittsburgh has scored eight runs while striking out 54 times and drawing 14 walks. Combined, the Pirates are batting .119 and that’s after opening the season at home with three games against the Cubbies. These Pirates are seeing BB’s right now and it puts a lot of pressure on the starter to be near perfect, knowing that run support is scarce. Wandy Rodriguez has somewhat stable skills but a four-year trend of declining strikeouts is getting disconcerting with the effects seen in his quality starts/poor starts trend. Rodriguez did a reasonable job of compensating with better control but that's a more tenuous path to success. His swinging strike rate the last four years was 9.2%, 8.8%, 8.5% and finally 7.0% last year. Don’t let Rodriguez’s first start fool you either. He threw 6.2 innings of two hit, shutout ball against the Cubbies, who are hitting a combined .175. His groundball/fly-ball split in that start was 20%/73%. At age 34, the luster on Rodriguez is fading fast.
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By contrast, the Diamondbacks have scored 37 runs in six games, they’re hitting a combined .293 and they’ve gone yard nine times. Arizona is now 5-1 and sweeping the Brewers in Milwaukee over the weekend and they’re playing with fire in their eyes. Trevor Cahill took the loss in his first start of the year against St. Louis. In that contest his groundball rate was 57% but an unlucky strand rate of 67% did him in. Not to worry. Cahill saw his groundball rate increase to an elite 61% in 2012. His fastball velocity jumped +1.2 mph in 2012 and his swinging strike rate jumped from 7.6% in 2011 to 9.3% in 2012. Cahill is so close to emerging as one of the league’s finest pitchers. The Pirates woes continue here and it’s likely to get ugly.
Teddy Covers
Minnesota vs. Kansas City
Pick: Minnesota
The Twins have won each of their first two series to open the season, a far cry from their debacle of a campaign in 2012. Manger Ron Gardenhire: “It's early in the season but our goal is to win series. Get our fans back and excited about this baseball team in a positive way.”
Today’s starter Kevin Correia is at his best in April, with career splits clearly showing a bias towards strong early season results. Correia threw a gem in his debut last week, seven innings of two run ball against Detroit. Expect more of the same today!
KC’s Erwin Santana has struggled with the gopher ball throughout his big league career, and his Royals debut was no exception – three dingers allowed in a loss at Chicago. The bullpen behind him nearly blew another ninth inning lead yesterday after blowing the save on Saturday; not reliable to close out games comfortably.
The Royals opened up the 2012 campaign with a solid road trip, just like they did this year. But when KC returned home for their season opening homestand, they proceeded to go 0-10; a lingering and lurking slump that’s still hanging over their collective heads a year later. I don’t view that as a good thing…. Take Minnesota.
Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado Rockies +155FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Colorado Rockies came into the season way undervalued as most people had them picked to finish last in the NL West division. With a healthy Troy Tulowitzki and a dangerous line-up to start the year, they have cruised to a 5-1 start.
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In fact, this is one of the best lineups in baseball when Tulo is healthy. They are hitting .333 and scoring 6.5 runs/game thus far on the season, which is a lot better than their counterparts. The Giants are hitting .224 and scoring 2.5 runs/game.
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Jorge De La Rosa has dominated the Giants throughout his career. The left-hander is 7-3 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in 12 career starts against San Francisco.
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The Rockies want to make a statement and let the defending World Series champs know that they are a contender in the NL West in 2013. It starts with Game 1 of this series tonight. Bet Colorado Monday.
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Arizona Diamondbacks -143FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Pirates are 0-3 on the road this season and 95-195 in their last 290 road games. They are also a poor 5-22 in their last 27 series openers. Pittsburgh will have a tough time earning its first road win of the season with Wandy Rodriguez on the hill. The southpaw has struggled against the D-backs with his clubs going just 1-5 in his last 6 starts against them. He gave up at least 4 runs in all 5 of the losses. The Snakes carry a lot of momentum into this series after earning a sweep in Milwaukee. Plus, Trevor Cahill has given up 3 earned runs or fewer in each of his last 7 starts, and the D-backs have won 5 of these as a result. Take the Snakes.
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San Francisco -165FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rockies enter as a red hot team with a 5-1 record winners of 5 straight. That includes pounding the punchless Padres at Coors this weekend. The Rockies have now won 5 straight. For the season, they have averaged 6.5 RPG and blasted 13 homeruns. That is all about to change as they matchup with the San Francisco pitching staff. In fact, the Giant hurlers have owned this series leading the defending Champs to a recent season-series record of 21-5 with 6 consecutive victories at this site. de la Rosa struggled in his first outing at Milwaukee. He allowed 4 runs on 5 hits in 3 walks in 4 1/3 IP. He doesn't figure to get healthier against a San Francisco team. In his last 4 starts vs the Giants, de la Rosa is 1-3 with a 5.66 ERA. Bumgarner opened with a strong performance this season, allowing just 2 hits in 8 IP in 3-0 win vs the Dodgers. In his career vs. Colorado, Bumgarner is 5-1 with a 1.75 ERA including a 1.13 ERA from this mound. Look for that excellence to continue as Bumgarner was one of the best home pitchers in the league last year with a 2.38 ERA.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Baltimore/ Boston Under 9: This Sox offense is hot right now, but I just don't see them hitting 6 HR's in this one. Wei-Yin Chen has pitched well vs Boston going 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA in 3 starts vs them, while allowing just 1 ER in each of his last 2 starts vs them last year. Chen also had a decent opener, allowing just 2 ER's in 5.2 innings vs the Tampa Bay Rays. Clay Bucholz got off to a nice start this year as well, allowing just 1 ER in 7 innings at New York. He does have a 4.68 ERA in his last starts vs the Orioles, but in his last start here vs them (Last year) he did pitch a complete game 4 hit shutout vs them. Both offenses are swinging the bats very well right now, but I just see the pitching rising up and keeping the scoring down.
TEXAS -151 over Tampa Bay: Tonight it should be the Rangers night. Alexi Ogando is pitching just like he was back in 2012 and that is dominating. Dating back to last year he has now allowed 0 ER's in his last 17.1 innings of work. He will also be helped by a Rangers offense that is very good in this park and showed it by knocking in 3 homers in each of their last 2 games. I don't think this team will miss Hamilton all that much and they should have another good showing vs Jeremy Hellickson, who was hit hard in his home start vs Baltimore. Overall the Tampa staff has struggled, ranking 27th in ERA (5.50) and 19th in WHIP (1.37). I just don't see them Stopping a hot Rangers offense in this one, while their own offense, that is 15th in scoring, will not put up much on a rejuvenated Ogando.
Brett Atkins
My free winner for tonight is going to be on the Houston Astros, mired in a five-game losing streak, against the Seattle Mariners, catching a huge price. Sounds crazy, as the Astros have already showed us signs of being the worst team in baseball. But that won't scare me away from playing the 'Stros snapping that skid and shocking the M's in this one.
I'm not listing pitchers in this one cause I simply believe Houston is ready to snap that skid and should challenge Joe Saunders tonight in a pitchers' duel.
Humber was solid in his first start of the season, against the Texas Rangers, allowing just one run on five hits over 5-2/3 innings. It was a rock-solid performance that lowered his career ERA against AL West teams to 2.80 over 70-2/3 innings.
Saunders was solid against the M's in nine visits to Safeco, so I'm sure he'll be on top of his game, sparking Humber to do the same. But the way I see it, if Seattle's lefty doesn't take the Astros serious and comes in a bit overconfident, he could get caught making a mistake.
The fact Houston has failed to score three runs in a game since its 8-2 win against the Rangers on Opening Night hasn't escaped me, yet rather it tells me the Astros are due.
Take Houston tonight.
3♦ HOUSTON
Brad Wilton
Monday's free play is to ride the streaking Braves on the Run Line as they play against the Marlins in the home opener for Miami.
Atlanta has claimed 5 of their 6 games played thus far, and 4 of those 5 wins have come by 2 runs or better. That includes Paul Maholm's first assignment, as Maholm limited the Phillies to just 2 runs in a 9-2 Atlanta win last week.
To no one's surprise, Miami is out of the gate at 1-5 straight up, and they have have been outscored 22-7 in their 5 losses this season.
The Marlins are just not a very good team, and I don't see them slowing down the Braves in this spot at all.
Atlanta has won the last 4 series meetings, and 8 of the last 10 overall versus Miami, and 7 of the 8 wins have come by 2 runs or more.
Nothing changes tonight, Atlanta to best Miami by at least 2 runs.
Braves on the Run Line your Monday comp play winner gentlemen.
5♦ ATLANTA -1.5
Jeff Benton
Today's freebie is the Yankees and Indians to hold Under the total.
Both teams were on field yesterday afternoon, and both teams blanked their opposition, the Yankees handling Detroit 7-0, while the Indians shutout Tampa Bay, 13-0.
I have a feeling Hiroki Kuroda and Ubaldo Jimenez are going to hook up in a pitcher's duel this afternoon in the home opener for the Tribe.
Series numbers show the teams having played Unders in each of their last four meetings, and they are on an overall 7-2-1 Under run the last ten times they have faced one another.
Runs scarce today, Yanks-Indians to go Under the total.
3♦ NY YANKEES-CLEVELAND UNDER
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Monday night will be on the Arizona Diamondbacks laying the run line against the Pittsburgh Pirates, as the Snakes will destroy a road-weary team that arrives in Phoenix with the league's lowest hit total (21) and batting average (.119) following its series loss in Los Angeles.
The Dodgers swept the weekend set, while the Bucs have now lost their two season-opening series, and could very well be in trouble and poised to lost their third in a row.
With the run line play, you're going to end up with Trevor Cahill and Wandy Rodriguez as the listed pitchers, and this is a good thing for us. First and foremost, Rodriguez is 3-6 in his career against Arizona, with a 5.48 ERA in 46 innings pitched.
I'd rather side with Cahill, who will be out to avenge his season-opener against the Cadinals. He looked good until the sixth innning, when he gave up a pair of runs in the sixth on a home run by Matt Holliday, allowing three runs in 5-2/3 innings. He should have confidence in this one, too, as he was stellar in his only previous meeting with the Bucs, allowing no runs over 7-2/3 innings in a 5-0 shutout. He finished that game allowing a mere two hits while striking out 10.
Love the Diamondbacks in a big time way here. And don't forget, with college hoops ending tonight, my focus will turn to my No. 1 sport, and getting premium baseball selections like the Diamondbacks tonight will come at a price. Get your long-term package now.
3♦ ARIZONA -1.5
Scott Delaney
My free winner for championship night is going to be on the defending World Series champion San Francisco Giants, laying the run line to the Colorado Rockies. We're catching a huge price for playing this one on the run line, but I think it's the perfect time to catch the hot-hitting Rox off-guard.
The surprising Rockies lead the league in hitting, I know this, but if you look at the pitching they've faced - not to mention competition as a whole - they could very well come in a bit overconfident for this game.
Tonight they'll get a heavy dose of a restructured Madison Bumgarner, who has forgotten about his two-seam fastball, and focused much more on his four-seamer that tails away slightly from right-handed batters. That won't fare well for the Rockies, who are explosive at the plate, but predominately right-handed. And when Bumgarner finds his groove, then mixes in his cutter, which runs in on hitters, he's as good as anyone else in this rotation.
And get this, Bumgarner is a stellar 32-4 lifetime when his offense scores at least three runs for him, and I don't think that'll be a problem against Jorge De La Rosa tonight. For some reason, even though he is 3-2 with a 2.58 ERA in seven games at AT&T Park, I think he's going to feel as if he has to look over his shoulder after anager Walt Weiss pulled him to avoid the Brewers' Ryan Braun in his season debut. Just cause Braun had homered earlier, it looked like a strategic move. But it might have sent a message just how much confidence Weiss has in his pitcher when facing pressure.
And something tells me pressure is exactly what the Rockies will face tonight, knowing San Francisco won 14 of 18 meetings against the Rockies last season, outscoring them, 125-75.
Play this on the run line, as the Giants roll to the series-opening win.
2♦ SAN FRANCISCO