Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday April, 9

MTi Sports

San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
Play: San Francisco Giants

The Rockies are 0-6 when Jhoulys Chacin starts vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and the Giants are 29-13 in the first game of a road series when they are off a loss in which they held the lead. Take San Francisco.

Rob Vinciletti

Houston Rockets vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Portland Trail Blazers -3.5

The Blazers have home loss revenge in this one and home favorites of 4 or less with 2 day of rest that scored 90 or more as a road dog of 5 or more on 45% or less shooting have covered 4 of the last 5 vs an opponent that was a road faovrite of 4 or less in their last game. The Blazers have covered 8 of 12 vs South West Division teams. Finally all teams on the road with no rest are 0-12 straight up and 2-10 to the spread going into Portland. Take the Blazers.

Sean Murphy

San Antonio @ Utah
PICK: Over 208

The Spurs 'big three', Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, and Manu Ginobili are all expected to sit out Monday's game in Utah, as these two teams do battle for the second time in as many nights.

As far as the total is concerned, I don't believe their absence changes much. Last night, the Spurs outlasted the Jazz 114-104, easily eclipsing the closing total of 210 points.

Regardless who suits up, I expect the Spurs to once again have their way offensively with a worn down Jazz squad that has allowed the opposition to average over 104 points per game on 47.4% shooting over their last five contests.

Last night, San Antonio shot better than 50% from the field and got to the free throw line a whopping 43 times.

Note that the Spurs are averaging 113.2 ppg on 52.5% shooting over their last five games, and the 'over' has cashed in six of their last seven overall.

Their tremendous level of depth allows Gregg Popovich to give his stars some rest from time to time. Guys like Stephen Jackson, Patty Mills, and Boris Diaw were brought in for that reason, and fresh faces like Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, Gary Neal, and Tiago Splitter are capable of picking up the slack.

Despite struggling to find the win column, the Jazz continue to light it up offensively, scoring more than 100 points in four straight and nine of their last 11 games.

Utah did lose both C.J. Miles and Earl Watson to injuries last night, but I don't expect it to miss a beat against a Spurs team that can afford to let its foot off the gas defensively following 11 straight wins, and in this 5-in-7 and back-to-back spot. Note that the Spurs have allowed the opposition to shoot right around 47% on the road this season, while posting a 19-8 o/u record.

The last time we saw the Spurs sit their 'big three', they gave up 137 points in what amounted to a street-ball game in Portland back on February 21st. That game totaled 234 points, and while I'm not calling for that level of offensive production tonight, I am confident we'll see this game find its way 'over' the current number.

David Chan

Golden State @ Denver
PICK: Denver -9

I bet value where I see it and am expecting the home side to lay the hammer down in this one.

The Warriors have taken both games in the series this season, winning 109-101 in Denver on February 9th, and 112-97 in Golden State on Friday night.

Denver lost 94-92 to New Orleans last Wednesday and suffice it to say, this team is frustrated and looking for someone to take it out on:

“It’s getting ridiculous at this point,” guard Ty Lawson said. “We’re losing to teams we should never … that we shouldn’t lose to, especially with the magnitude of what’s going on in the season with the playoff run and where we’re at. We can’t be losing these games.”

Denver not only plays with the "revenge factor", but also with confidence, going for its third straight win at the Pepsi Center.

Note that Golden State will be without the services of staring point Stephen Curry due to a sprained ankle.

And that's bad news for Warriors' backers today, as the Nuggets are set to welcome back Danilo Gallinari from injury.

Golden State is a team that is rebuilding for next year; Denver is a team gearing up for a playoff push.

All signs point to a comfortable Nuggets cover!

Guillermo Sanchez Perez

L.A. Clippers @ Memphis
PICK: Memphis

LA is 34-22 (just 13-13 on the road). Memphis is 32-23 (19-7 at home). LA has won both previous meetings this year, including 101-85 on its home floor on March 24th in the most recent matchup.

The Clippers have won two straight, including a 109-94 victory over the Kings on Saturday. Blake Griffin led the way with 27-points and 14-rebounds. Randy Foye had 25-points. Chris Paul had 19-points and 15-assists. Caron Butler had 12-points.

The Grizzlies have also won two straight, most recently a 94-89 victory over Dallas on Saturday night (note they won at Miami the night before, 97-82). Rudy Gay had 25-points. Zach Randolph chipped in 15-points and 11-rebounds. Gilbert Arenas has been a pleasant surprise and added 14-points. Mike Conley contributed 12.

Both teams are excelling right now, but I feel that the obvious "revenge" factor, along with how well the Grizzlies have been on their home floor (won four straight and 10 of their last 12 at FedExForum) will be the difference. Memphis has also been playing suffocating defense, holding its opposition to 91.4 points during its 7-2 run.

“Defense is always the difference,” said Conley (second in the league with 2.4 steals per game).

Consider a second look at the Grizzlies!

Jack Jones

Toronto Raptors +10

The Toronto Raptors are showing great value as a 10-point underdog to the Indiana Pacers. Indiana is certainly overvalued right now due to a recent stretch of solid play where they have won four of their last five, including a victory over Oklahoma City. However, this team cannot live up to the expectations set before them.

Indiana is a very tired team right now as this will be their 9th game in 13 days. They showed signs of slowing down in a 72-86 home loss to the Boston Celtics on Saturday. Asking the Pacers to win by double-digits against Toronto is simply asking too much.

While the Raptors are coming off two straight losses to the Cavaliers and Thunder, that has them a bit 'under the radar' right now and undervalued. Toronto is a very profitable 20-9 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. The Raptors are also 37-23 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.

The Pacers are 0-10 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season. The Raptors are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Indiana is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game. The Pacers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home. Bet the Raptors Monday.

Steve Janus

Golden State Warriors +8.5

The Golden State Warriors don't have a realistic shot at making the playoffs, but that hasn't stopped them from giving their best effort down the stretch. Golden State is just 2-7 over their last 9 games, but six of those losses have come by 8-points or less.

Most people just look at a team's overall record to see how they have been playing, which is why we find such great value on the Warriors at +8.5.

Golden State crushed the Nuggets 112-97 just this past Saturday at home. The initial reaction for most bettors is to take the other side in a revenge game where the two teams just played. However, I believe the oddsmakers have over-adjusted the line by 3-4 points in this game.

Golden State is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nuggets are just 5-13 ATS in home games over the second half of this season.

Freddy Wills

Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians

5 teams got swept this weekend and 4 of the 5 are "contenders" in their division. We had a 9-3 run going over the last 3 days and then we got stuck in some bad beats today with the Red Sox blowing a 10-7 lead in the 9th and a 12-10 lead in the 11th. The Giants also blew a 6-0 lead for us, but we will look to bounce back on Monday starting with our hot and cold pitching report. Don't forget still very early in the year so our report is mostly ranking pitchers by past performances in the month of April.

Can Cleveland start off hot again this year. Their bullpen struggled to hold leads this weekend, but they got a much needed win on Sunday after back to back losses in extra innings to the Blue Jays. Josh Tomlin takes the mound on Monday and he had a 2.45 ERA in April last year over 5 starts where he had a WHIP below 1. He faces off against the White Sox who are still playing in Texas for Sunday night baseball. It's going to be a tough flight and game flying during a holiday to Cleveland for the White Sox who just are not expected to be very good.

Sox start Sale a guy from their bullpen last year and although lefties have given the Indians a bit of troubles I think the fact that they are home and were much better offensively here is a huge advantage. Tomlin also has 19 career starts at Progressive Field and Sale has 0. In those 19 career starts over the last 2 years he's been pretty consistent compiling a 3.58 ERA and he won't have to be great to win on Monday. Indians are now 13-4 in their last 17 games with Tomlin on the mound and 35-17 in their last 52 as a home favorite.

Notable Hot Starters:
Cole Hamels (5GS, 3.13 ERA, 1.11 WHIP - April 2011)
Jhoulys Chacin (5GS, 2.91 ERA, 1.18 WHIP - April 2011)
Shawn Marcum (6GS, 2.21 ERA, 1.06 WHIP - April 2011)
C.J. Wilson (6GS, 3.35 ERA, 1.41 WHIP - April 2011)
Brandon Beachy (6GS, 3.47 ERA, 0.99 WHIP - April 2011)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
Despite the Yankees getting swept and shut out on Sunday I still think the cold starter with the best shot at giving us a win is Ivan Nova who faces off against the Orioles in Baltimore. Mainly because the O's will start Brian Matusz who has a career 5.22 ERA at home and has struggled against the Yankees. Cano/Jeter alone are 16-38 vs. the south paw. On the flip side despite Ivan Nova's struggles last April posting a 5.82 ERA in 4 starts he was very limited.

Nova has great numbers against the Orioles posting a 3.55 ERA over 4 career starts as Orioles hitters have just a .152 average and .495 OPS in 66 career at bats combined. Nova thrives on pitching on the road where he posts a 3.51 career ERA through 16 starts.

Notable Cold Starters:
Nick Blackburn (5GS, 5.14 ERA, 1.64 WHIP - April 2011)
J.A. Happ (5GS, 6.35 ERA, 1.52 WHIP - April 2011)
Mike Pelfrey (6GS, 7.39 ERA, 1.96 WHIP - April 2011)
Edwin Jackson (6GS, 5.86 ERA, 1.70 WHIP - April 2011)
Jake Westbrook (6GS, 6.53 ERA, 1.88 WHIP - April 2011)
Barry Zito (3GS, 6.23 ERA, 1.54 WHIP - April 2011)

John Ryan

White Sox vs. Indians
Play: Under 7½

5* graded play ‘under’ Chicago White Sox - Cleveland Indians set to start at 7:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than seven runs will be scored in this game. The sim shows that both starters will combine for 12 or more innings of work. Moreover, the ‘under’ is increasingly more likely to win the money the greater the number is over 12 innings pitched. Despite dropping two of three games in their opening series against Toronto, Cleveland's starters allowed three earned runs and eight hits in 22 combined innings, and I strongly believe Josh Tomlin will deliver another solid performance Monday. The CWS will send Chris Sale to the hill and he will making his first career MLB start after two strong seasons in the Bullpen. As Mark Buehrle moved onto Miami through free agency, it opened up the opportunity for Sale to earn a spot in the rotation. The CWS bats are not performing well and they were near horrid in last night’s loss to Texas. The White Sox are not providing run support for their starters. They left nine runners on base and their 1 through 6 hitters went a combined 2-for-21. Take the ‘UNDER’

Dave Cokin

Kansas City Royals vs Oakland Athletics
Pick: Oakland Athletics

The Royals are out of the gate nicely and might be better than I thought. But I'll try to beat them here. I'm not ready to buy Luis Mendoza just yet, and Oakland lefty Tom Milone could be a sleeper this season. At close to even money I'll look the A's way tonight.

Jim Feist

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays

The Red Sox stumble out of Detroit and head north to Toronto, off to a bad start. They turn their lonely eyes to starter Felix Doubront, a kid who did not have a good spring: Opponents hit .290 batting average off him and a 1.44 WHIP. Toronto is a tough park to pitch in and he faces a talented Blue Jays lineup that just smacked the Indians around on the road. And the Toronto manager, John Farrell, use to be the Red Sox pitching coach, so he has all the scouting reports. He also likes to run on the bases to disrupt opposing pitchers, making this a tough spot for the kid. Play the Blue Jays!

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Philadelphia/ Miami Over 7: I know that we have a Phils offense that hasn't been producing yet, but maybe at home in this hitters park with the wind blowing out will get their offense going some. This team still has some good hitters on it in Victorino, Rollins, Pence and Mayberry, so they are more than capable of putting up some runs on a Marlins staff that has a 4.46 ERA in the early going so far. Miami had a tough time hitting in their new spacious park, but they hit a bit better in a hitters park in Cincinnati. The Fish were shutout in the first game of the Cincinnati series, but they came back in the last 2 games to put up 13 runs and 23 for 74 hitting (.310). This is an offense that had promise on paper and they are waking up. Sanchez does have a 3.41 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Phils, while Cole has a 2.27 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Fish, but with the wind blowing out at a good clip and Miami's offense waking up and the Phils offense looking to have a better showing at home I will expect this one to go over rather easily.

LA Angels/ Minnesota Over 8: Along with Pujols, the biggest signing the Halos had in the offseason has been CJ Wilson, but this may not be the best team for him to face right off the bat. Granted the Twins are hitting just .163 on the season so far, but numbers like that won't last and they are facing a pitcher that has struggled vs them. Wilson has faced the Twins 22 times, but just 5 times as a starter and he has a 6.67 ERA in those starts, including a 6.87 ERA in 3 starts at Target Field. I expect the Minnesota bats to wake up a bit here. On the Other side we have a Halos squad that is still looking to break out offensively and that should happen tonight vs a pitcher that they have had good success vs. Nick Blackburn has not been a good pitcher for Minnesota in his career with a 4.50 career ERA, including a 4.41 ERA as a starter, and he had a terrible end to last year as he posted a 6.69 ERA in his last 7 starts, before succumbing to injury. Nick has also struggled vs the Halos in his career, as he has a 5.40 ERA in 6 starts vs them. Neither offense has had a great start to the year, but that ends today as these teams combine for 10+ runs in this one. KEY TRENDS--- LA ANGELS are 25-12 OVER in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons, while MINNESOTA is 13-4 OVER in home games after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less over the last 2 seasons.

More Later

SPORTS WAGERS

San Francisco/COLORADO over 9½

The Giants haven’t got off the mattress yet but their offense is better and scoring runs is not going to be a battle every inning like it was last year. They were swept in Arizona, losing all three games by a run but they did score 14 times. They may have to score 14 times tonight because Barry Zito starts. Zito went 3-4 with a 5.87 ERA in 54 IP last season. You would think that $126M could buy at least one year of good command but the answer is still "no." Foot injury in April cost him 2½ months. He came back for six starts, then foot and ankle woes cost him the rest of season, save for a few ineffectual September relief innings. Has been regressing dramatically every year since ’05 and the only reason he’s even near a baseball diamond is because the Giants have to pay his ridiculous contract. Rockies should get seven or more tonight and they may need it too. Jhoulys Chacin comes with more risk in 2012 than he did at this time last year. Signs of 1H growth evaporated in an epic 2H skills collapse with overall season a major step backward. He issued too many walks and Coors is unforgiving of this flaw. Chacin is still young but 2H WHIP shows the downside potential. One or both of these fragile pitchers are likely to get lit up here, especially Zito and it’s going to take a whole lot of bad luck to keep this one from going over. Play: San Francisco/Colorado over 9½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

CHICAGO +121 over Milwaukee

Milwaukee comes in with a 1-2 record and they didn’t look very good in its two losses, getting outscored 20-8. The Cubs also went 1-2 but could have easily swept the Nationals after blowing two saves in three games. The Cubbies also had a tough opening set of pitchers to face in Stephen Strasburgh, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman, yet they could’ve swept. They should find the going much easier here against Shaun Marcum. Marcum battled a shoulder injury much of this spring, and while he appeared to be healthy late in the spring, be wary of a low pitch count this early in the season. He only pitched seven innings in the spring where he went 0-1 in two starts with a 6.14 ERA. We saw many warning signs with Marcum near the end of last year that included a dip in strikeout and groundball rates and that’s a sure sign of a pitcher that could be losing it. Chris Volstad was the complete opposite of Marcum in that he was coming on the second half, posting a 3.37 xERA. Volstad also had a healthy groundball/fly-ball ratio of 51%/31% and if he can get a little tougher on lefties he could be in for a good season and certainly has more appeal taking back a tag than Marcum does spotting one. Play: Chicago +121 (Risking 2 units).

Washington +101 over N.Y. METS

Although it’s a small tag, the Nationals just might offer up the best value of the day. Edwin Jackson makes his Nationals debut after winning a World Series with the Cardinals last year. Jackson has already pitched for six teams so a change in scenery is not going to faze him one bit. A solid xERA history, durability and very good stuff make him worth watching again. However, this one is all about fading Mike Pelfrey. Following a spring in which he allowed 21 ER in 22 IP, Pelfrey was recently informed by manager Terry Collins that he was at risk of losing his starting role. Pelfrey provided ERAs of 3.72 and 3.66 in 2008 and 2010 despite never achieving a BPV** (for explanation of BPV see under these write-ups) above 40. Don't count on another season of luck because if he repeats his 2011 skills, he won't just lose a rotation spot, he might be out of the league entirely. Pelfrey has no upside whatsoever and has to be considered one of the riskiest pitchers in the league. Pelfrey favored over Jackson is a mistake. Play: Washington +101 (Risking 2 units).

Chicago +101 over CLEVELAND

The Indians had a rather eventful opening day weekend with the Blue Jays in that they played an extra nine innings in the first two games, blew a three-run, ninth inning lead in the opener and held on for their first win yesterday. The Indians hit .153 in the series. Josh Tomlin has had great success at home in his career with a W/L record of 13-4. Overall, he went 12-7 last year with a pedestrian 4.25 ERA. The key to this pretty-good year was dialing in the control (21 walks in 165 innings), which makes you sort of nervous when you consider he only struck out 89. How many guys not named Maddux can sustain control like that for more than one year? Add to that an August elbow strain and the anxiety heightens a bit more. And oh yeah, he's a fly-ball pitcher with an awful GB/FB ratio of 28%/50%. Tomlin is a prime “blow-up” candidate. Chris Sale is an electric lefty that has the tools to make the transition from relief to starter. He keeps the ball on the ground (53% GB% in the 2H of 2011), has shown good command and has no lefty-righty splits. In 71 innings of relief a year ago, Sale whiffed 79 batters. These are exactly type of skills you want to wager on when looking at an underdog. The South Side offers up all the value in this one. Play: Chicago +101 (Risking 2 units).

Seattle +205 over TEXAS

There are surprises every year in every sport and a 3-1 start for the Mariners makes them very worthy of a close look taking back a tag like this one. The M’s have 38 hits over their first four games while batting .266 and that’s not bad at all. A winning frame of mind gives them even more appeal. Seattle will send out Hector Noesi and there’s a lot to like about him. He has a long history of elite command in the minors. He had a 118/15 K/BB in 116 IP in Single-A. He followed that up with a 153/28 K/BB in 141 IP between High-A and Triple-A in 2010 and he showed flashes of dominance with the NYY last season. His 93.3 mph fastball velocity suggests we can't dismiss his strikeout upside nor his solid spring in which he posted a 1.50 ERA in 12.1 innings. On January 18, the Rangers signed Japanese starting pitcher Yu Darvish. In 2011, Darvish posted a 1.44 ERA in 232 innings. His ERA has remained below 2.00 each season since 2007. That’s nice, it really is but these overhyped Japanese pitchers have been nothing but a bust and until we see something from Darvish that says he won’t be, we’ll gladly step in against him. Players that couldn’t make it in the Majors go over to play in Japan. Players that hit below the Mendoza line in the Majors go over to Japan and hit .300. It’s a competitive and entertaining league with many skilled players but it’s not the major leagues. Playing for the Rangers, Darvish has a great chance to win games but in no way does he warrant being a 2-1 favorite without ever throwing a major-league pitch. Play: Seattle +205 (Risking 2 units).

**BPV (Base Performance Value)

This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors. In tandem with a pitcher's strand rate, it provides a complete picture of the elements that contribute to a pitcher's ERA, and therefore serves as an accurate tool to project likely changes in ERA. BENCHMARKS: A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.

Pass NBA

Nelly

Oklahoma City - over Milwaukee

The Bucks are now just a game out of the playoff picture with ten games to go and given the injuries for the Knicks and the absolute collapse of the 76ers it looks very likely that Milwaukee will sneak into the postseason. Milwaukee has won four games in a row but the Bucks have had a light schedule lately and this won’t be the best opportunity to pick up a game. Oklahoma City won on Sunday but the Thunder had lost the previous three games, falling into a virtual tie for the top spot in the Western Conference despite leading the way pretty much all season long. Oklahoma City is 17-10 on the road this season and this should be a favorable bounce back situation even facing a second game in as many days. The recent wins for the Bucks have all come against losing teams and Milwaukee has really struggled defensively at times, making this a very tough match-up given that the Thunder have shot nearly 48 percent on the season and is a great shooing team from 3-point range and the free throw line. This is the first meeting of the season between these teams and Milwaukee has not held an overly tough home field edge, going just 15-12. The Bucks are just 12-15 ATS at home this season and a much bigger game with New York is waiting for Milwaukee on Wednesday, making this a game Milwaukee may be willing to fold in. Oklahoma City is starting to feel the urgency of the playoff race and the Thunder are certainly the superior team playing as just slight favorites.