EZWINNERS
New York Yankees -165
The Yankees were swept in their opening series in Tampa, but I like them to pick up their first win of the season in this game against the Orioles. The Yankees are 16-6 in the last twenty two meetings between these two teams played in Baltimore and they have had a lot of success against the Orioles starting pitcher Brian Matusz. Baltimore is just 1-5 in Matusz's last six start's against Yankees and the O's are just 1-10 in Matusz's last eleven starts overall. New York is 9-2 in Nova's last eleven starts as a favorite of -$151 to -$200 and I look for that success to continue. Play on New York.
David Banks
Phoenix Suns -2.5
The Phoenix Suns (29-27, 30-26 ATS) are in third place in the Pacific Division behind the two Los Angeles teams just 5 games behind the Lakers, and they have moved up to within one game of the Denver Nuggets for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Real playoff contenders find ways to beat lesser teams on the road when they need to, and that is what the Suns will try to do against the Minnesota Timberwolves (25-32, 27-30 ATS) on ESPN2 from the Target Center in Minneapolis, MN Monday night at 9:00 ET.
The Suns are peaking at just the right time this season as they are now 4-1 both straight up and against the spread in their last five games following a nice 125-105 blowout of those Lakers on Saturday when Phoenix outscored Los Angeles 63-48 in the second half. It should be noted that Kobe Bryant missed his first game in 138 contests for the Lake Show, but that should not take away from the fact that the Suns had seven players in double-digits, led by Shannon Brown scoring 24 points vs. his former Laker teammates. Even Michael Redd went back in time by pouring in 23 points off the bench. Phoenix is also now 4-2 straight up in its last six road games including good wins at Utah and Indiana. Just about the only negative regarding the Suns recently is that their only loss in the last five games came at Denver, a loss that could come back to bite them in possible playoff tiebreaker scenarios.
The Timberwolves got off to a promising start this season and they were actually a fun team to watch with the mercurial Ricky Rubio running the point on his way to a possible Rookie of the Year season. ESPN2 probably scheduled this game way back when in order to showcase Rubio, but everything changed when he went down with a torn ACL that ended both his season and that of the Timberwolves. Minnesota has gone just 4-12 straight up and 5-11 at the betting windows since Rubio went down, and a team that was among the league leaders in scoring with its exciting rookie distributor has now reached 100 points just twice in the last seven games. The Timberwolves are still ranked seventh in the NBA offensively at 98.6 points per game overall, but they have been plummeting in recent weeks and are only averaging 95.4 points over the last five games on a dismal 42.2 percent shooting.
These clubs have met twice this season with both encounters coming in Phoenix. The Suns beat Minnesota with Rubio in the lineup 104-95 as 4-point favorites on March 1st, but then ironically the Wolves' first win without Rubio also came in Phoenix in a 127-124 upset on March 12th. The Suns have enjoyed visiting Minnesota in recent years though as they are now 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to the Twin Cities.
MLB Predictions
Red Sox / Blue Jays Over 9
The Boston Red Sox look for their first win of the season as they have plans to spoil Toronto's home opener. The Red Sox went 0-3 in Detroit over the weekend, including a crazy game yesterday which saw them lose 13-12 as they couldn't hold on to any lead. The good thing for the Red Sox is that they finally got their bats going after scoring just 2 runs in the first two games combined. The Blue Jays went 2-1 in Cleveland over the weekend scoring 7, 7, and 3 runs. Felix Doubront will get the start for the Red Sox. Last season he didn't start any games but appeared in 11 with a 6.10 ERA, 1.94 ERA and .316 opponents batting average. In 2010 he started 3 games and had a 4.11 ERA, 1.70 WHIP and .286 opponents batting average over those 3 starts. Toronto will go with their 4th starter Henderson Alvarez who started 10 games last season. Young Alvarez went 1-3 last season with a 3.53 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and .262 opponents batting average. Take note that the OVER is 10-3-1 in the Red Sox last 14 overall dating back to last season, and 10-4-1 in their last 15 road games. The OVER is 13-4-2 in the Blue Jays last 19 games with a high total set between 9 and 10.5 runs. The OVER is also 10-4 in Toronto's last 14 home games as a small favorite of -110 to -150 and 7-0-1 in their last 8 home games vs a left handed starter. Those trends don't mean too much, but take note that the OVER is 4-1 in these two teams last 5 meetings and the OVER is 10-2 in their last 12 meetings in Toronto. Take note that Toronto has scored 13, 7, and 12 runs in each of their last 3 home openers. When these two teams face off at the Rogers Center the OVER is always a good look, and with the two young pitchers on the mound in what will be a packed and loud stadium I look for both teams to have little trouble putting up runs. Take the OVER 9 runs.
Teddy Covers
Toronto @ Indiana
PICK: Under 188.5
The Raptors have been a dead nuts ‘Under’ team in recent weeks. This is no surprise for anyone who has closely followed Toronto this year. The Raptors have emphasized defense from Day 1 under Dwane Casey this year after years of defensive ineptitude, and it’s really starting to pay off. The numbers don’t lie. Toronto has gone Under the total in each of their last five ballgames, allowing 92 points or less each time on a combined 41.4% shooting. For the season, they’ve held foes well under 44% from the floor. Casey: “I’m looking for a foundation, a defensive foundation of toughness.” He’s finding that toughness on a nightly basis these days.
Both previous meetings between these two teams this year have been low scoring, defensive minded affairs: 95-90 and 90-85 Pacers victories. Now that Toronto has lost their best scorer, forward Andrei Bargnani, to yet another injury (calf), the Raptors simply can’t trade points with anyone – particularly a good defensive team like the Pacers. Indiana managed only 72 points in their home loss to Boston on Saturday, and there’s no reason to expect an offensive surge this evening. Look for another relatively low scoring game between these two teams, just like the previous two meetings in 2012. Take the Under.
Dave Price
Oklahoma City Thunder -3
The Thunder are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of less than 5.0 points and 39-18-1 ATS in their last 58 games as a road favorite of fewer than 5.0 points. The Bucks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points. Take the Thunder.
Jimmy Boyd
Detroit Pistons +7
The Magic, who have lost 5 of their last 6, are getting a little too much respect from odds makers here. The Pistons have won the season's first 2 meetings by 11 and 7 points, and I expect them to keep this one closer than the odds makers think.
History is on our side here as plays against home teams playing with double revenge (consecutive losses to an opponent), provided their opponent checks in off a road loss, are 234-158 (60%) ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have only won by an average of 0.6 points.
The Pistons are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Pistons are also 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Orlando. We'll take the points.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Texas/ Seattle Over 9: Google News Play Ok so Texas had a low scoring series at home with the White Sox. That won't continue to happen as this is the best hitting park in the Majors and I expect an explosion tonight. Last year Texas averaged over 6 rpg at home, but through their first 3 here they have not scored more than 5 runs in any game. This is a powerful offense and its just a matter of time before the explode. Tonight they get to take on Hector Noesi, who has just 2 career starts and never made it out of the 3rd inning in both starts, while posting a 9.64 ERA in the process. I can see the Ranger bats waking up here. Yu Darvish makes his major league debut and their is a lot of hype surrounding him, which should lead to some butterflies. He did have an ERA of 1.99 in his 7 seasons in Japan, but in the spring he had a 3.60 ERA, so he was hit a bit in his first stint facing major league rosters. Seattle has done well offensively so far, hitting .259 and scoring 4.8 rpg in their first 4 games and that should continue tonight in this hitters park. Another thing to consider is that the Rangers will be trying their damndest to give Yu some solid run support, which should make it easier for him to relax on the mound. Last year 6 of the 9 games played here between thes teams put up DD in runs and I see more of the same tonight. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Seattle is 11-1-2 OVER since 2005 as a road dog of +140 or more if their are off 2 wins in which they never trailed. Average runs scored 11.5 rpg.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Philadelphia/ Miami Over 7: I know that we have a Phils offense that hasn't been producing yet, but maybe at home in this hitters park with the wind blowing out will get their offense going some. This team still has some good hitters on it in Victorino, Rollins, Pence and Mayberry, so they are more than capable of putting up some runs on a Marlins staff that has a 4.46 ERA in the early going so far. Miami had a tough time hitting in their new spacious park, but they hit a bit better in a hitters park in Cincinnati. The Fish were shutout in the first game of the Cincinnati series, but they came back in the last 2 games to put up 13 runs and 23 for 74 hitting (.310). This is an offense that had promise on paper and they are waking up. Sanchez does have a 3.41 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Phils, while Cole has a 2.27 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Fish, but with the wind blowing out at a good clip and Miami's offense waking up and the Phils offense looking to have a better showing at home I will expect this one to go over rather easily.
LA Angels/ Minnesota Over 8: Along with Pujols, the biggest signing the Halos had in the offseason has been CJ Wilson, but this may not be the best team for him to face right off the bat. Granted the Twins are hitting just .163 on the season so far, but numbers like that won't last and they are facing a pitcher that has struggled vs them. Wilson has faced the Twins 22 times, but just 5 times as a starter and he has a 6.67 ERA in those starts, including a 6.87 ERA in 3 starts at Target Field. I expect the Minnesota bats to wake up a bit here. On the Other side we have a Halos squad that is still looking to break out offensively and that should happen tonight vs a pitcher that they have had good success vs. Nick Blackburn has not been a good pitcher for Minnesota in his career with a 4.50 career ERA, including a 4.41 ERA as a starter, and he had a terrible end to last year as he posted a 6.69 ERA in his last 7 starts, before succumbing to injury. Nick has also struggled vs the Halos in his career, as he has a 5.40 ERA in 6 starts vs them. Neither offense has had a great start to the year, but that ends today as these teams combine for 10+ runs in this one. KEY TRENDS--- LA ANGELS are 25-12 OVER in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons, while MINNESOTA is 13-4 OVER in home games after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less over the last 2 seasons.
Milwaukee -131 over CHICAGO: Aramis Ramirez spent 8.5 yeas in Chicago and now he's going there as a member of the Brewers. Ramirez has a career .308 average and has hit 124 home runs at Wirgley, plus he has 6 hit in 12 AB vs Volstad in his career. Ryan Braun has regularly been a target of boos at Wrigley as a result of giving the Cubs fits over the years - the four-time All-Star is batting .331 with 12 home runs, 23 doubles and 57 RBIs in 73 games in the series.The Brewers offense has struggled out the game, but it should get going here. Chicago is 1-2 on the year despite an ERA of 1.61 from their starters, but they have also struggled at the plate, with a .220 average and will find the going tough tonight vs Marcum, who has a 1.93 ERA in 2 career starts vs them. Volstad has pitched well vs the Brewers as he has a 1.71 ERA in 3 career starts vs them, but this is first start in a Cubs unifor and he is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA in 4 career starts in this park. With the addition of Ramizez and the way Braun has feasted on Cubs pitching, i feel that Milwaukee has a bit more offense and the better starter on the mound here.
Kansas City +100 over OAKLAND: The A's as a mess this year after they let go of a lot of their talent in the offseason, and it will show in the standings as they will reside in the basement all year long. The A's just dont have the offense this year (.220 so far) or the pitching (4.07 from starters) to compete in a division that has the Rangers and halos in it. The Royals offense should som promise in LA as they hit .250 in the three games, but what was more impressive is their pitching, that saw their starters post a 2.08 ERA vs a very strong LA offense. The Royals may be the most improved team in the league and they will keep on with their winning ways vs an Oakland team that is just not very good this year.
2 UNIT PLAYS
St Louis +105 over CINCINNATI: Albert who? Ok they may miss him some in the long run, but for right now they are proving that they don't miss him. The Cards are hitting .322 and scoring 6 rpg in the early going and now they take aim at Homer Bailey, who has a career 5.11 ERA at home and an ERA of 5.74 in 24 starts during the months of March, April, May and June. This is not a great pitcher, despite the fact the he has a 3.60 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Cards. Jake Westbrook has a 2-1 mark with a 4.39 ERA in his career vs the Reds, while in 2 starts here he has 2 no decisions, but with a 2.31 ERA. In the Early going the Cards are looking to make a statement, that they can win without Albert and they are showing they can. I still feel the Reds will win the division in the end, but tonight vs this weak pitcher the Cards offense should continue to impress on their way to grabbing game 1 of this series.
NY Yanks -145 over BALTIMORE: The Yanks were shutout yesterday and that does not bode well for the O's in this one. Brian Matusz was just horrible last year for the )'s as he went 1-9 with a 10.89 ERA, including an 0-6 mark with a 13.83 ERA in his last 7 starts. Brian is also 2-4 with a 4.70 ERA in 7 starts vs the Yanks, including an 0-1 mark with a 14.85 ERA in 2 starts vs them last year. This is a bad pitcher and will be rocked by the Yanks in this one. NY is 0-3 on the year, while the O's are 3-0, so the AL East is a bit upside down, but tonight it will resemble the way it should be, with the yanks coming out on top, like they have done in 45 of the last 61 in this series.
1 UNIT PLAY
TEXAS -1.5 (-115) Over Seattle: I expect a lot of runs in this one. The Rangers don't like looking up at Seattle in the standings, plus I expect their offense to go all out and give Ya Darvish plenty of run support. Seattle is 3-1 on the year, but they were playing the A's and now it's time to step up to the big boys. They will not fare well here as Texas wins by at least 4 runs. Let's call it 8-4.
Tony George
Suns -2.5
Took the Suns on Saturday for you and they are playing a short handed, injury riddled T Wolves team tonight with REVENGE as the Wolves came into the desert and walked out back in March with a 3 point win in a high scoring game. Suns on a 4-1 SU run and have been insane at covering numbers as of late. The Wolves are allowing 106 ppg their last 5 and the Suns are scoring a 106 ppg their last 5. Pheonix exacts some revenge tonight. Suns off a 20 point win against the Lakers Saturday and the T Wolves got beat by 9 at lowly New Orleans their last game and have dropped 5 in a row and 8 out of their last 10 games. Very short number here, I will lay it.
JEFF BENTON
Your Monday freebie is the Indiana Pacers to trash the Toronto Raptors.
Don't sleep on this Indiana team, as the Pacers are currently your #3 seed in the East Conference, and while they may not have a true superstar, they sure as hell play pretty well together.
Indy just had their four game winning streak snapped Saturday night at home against Boston, and I have a feeling that loss did not sit too well with the team. Look for them to take out their frustration on the Raptors who were just drummed yesterday in Oklahoma City.
Toronto is now just 9-19 straight up away from home, and they have had their struggles matching up with Indiana in recent meetings.
The Pacers have won the last pair and five of the last six overall against the Raptors, and the host in this series is a rock-solid 16-5 the last 21 times the teams have tangled.
Add to that a 10-3 spread mark for the favorite in this rivalry, and it all adds up to the #3 seeded Pacers administering a butt-kicking on Toronto tonight.
4♦ INDIANA
SCOTT DELANEY
It's going to be very rare you'll see me play the Charlotte Bobcats, but my complimentary winner for Monday night is on the 'Cats hosting the Washington Wizards, laying the points, albeit a slim number.
While owner Michael Jordan was in Las Vegas last weekend for his annual golf tournament, the Charlotte Bobcats may have finally realized their importance on his priorty list is not that high. It's really sad, that one of the league's most recognizable faces - yes, even as an owner - is hardly seen these days. It comes as no surprise a news reports recently said he would bolt as owner of the team if it didn't start winning.
Maybe he ought to start hanging out with his team, rather than Ashton Kutcher, and providing some leadership. And here there are some who dog professional sports owners like Mark Cuban, Jerry Jones and Jim Irsay for their involvement. And yet they all have championships to back it up.
That all being said, it's about time the Bobcats realize being owned by the greatest basketball player of all time doesn't mean they're going to play like the greatest. Tonight is a great night to get things started, in terms of closing with some pride, as they host an equally dismal team, like the Wizards.
Washington has lost five straight and 10 of 11, while it has won just five more games than the Bobcats this season. Charlotte comes in having lost the first two meetings of the season, and have one more meeting after this one, later this month. They've split the last 12 matchups in Charlotte, and something tells me the Bobcats are going to come out firing for this one.
There comes a point in the season when professional athletes get fed up with things like losing, or absentee owners, like Jordan. The oddsmakers see something they like in the Bobcats, and I'll go ahead and look at the favorite tonight.
1♦ CHARLOTTE
DOM CHAMBERS
For my free selection, let’s look at the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover on the road at Milwaukee.
The Thunder bounced back from their first three-game losing streak of the season by routing the Toronto Raptors. Look for the Thunder to continue that trend today against the Bucks.
Milwaukee does have a four-game winning streak. But those wins came against the Wizards, Cavs, Bobcats and Trail Blazers. Not exactly the elite of the NBA. They step up in class with the Thunder.
Against teams under .500 the Bucks are 19-4. Not so good against the better teams.
Look for Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant to be too much for the Bucks.
At home, the Bucks are 15-12 straight up, but only 12-15 ATS. On the road, the Thunder is more impressive. They are 17-10 straight up and 15-12 ATS.
Look for the Thunder to be focused for this game. They are in a battle for the top seed in the playoffs and cannot afford to slip up. That three-game skid they had may be what they needed to get their frame of mind right.
That spells trouble for the Bucks.
Take the Thunder.
3♦ THUNDER
MATT RIVERS
Now let's get to a free play winner for Monday, and it comes in the NBA as I back the Oklahoma City Thunder on the road at Milwaukee.
The Bucks are making a late season push to get themselves in the postseason, but I believe their current four-game winning streak is about to be halted by the Thunder.
Oklahoma City ended a season-high three-game losing streak in convincing fashion with a 91-75 blowout win over the Raptors last night. Okie City is currently tied with San Antonio for the overall #1 spot in the Western Conference standings, and they have a chance to move percentage points ahead of the idle Spurs with the win tonight.
I believe the Thunder are at least three-baskets better than the Bucks tonight.
Road chalk freebie on the Thunder tonight.
2♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
CRAIG DAVIS
Today's free play is on the New York Yankees on the run line, with Ivan Nova on the bump.
So far, CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda and Phil Hughes have all pretty much sucked. Surely Nova can't be that bad, can he? He was definitely a surprise for the Yankees last year and even though he's not going to sneak up on anyone this year, he's still a fairly solid pitcher who realizes the importance of tonight's game.
We can all joke around about how the Yankees are 0-3 and the last time they started 0-3 was the same year they finished with 114 wins. That's all fine and good if it happens again, but this isn't the same Yankees team and I don't see how this team is going to be able to win 100 games, let alone 114.
They need to fix this before it gets too bad.
Now the good news is the Boston Red Sox started about as poorly as you possibly can start last year, but eventually found themselves on top of the division until their September meltdown.
The Yankees aren't a young team and they need to remember that. If they get a lead they need to increase it because their pitching staff isn't as dominant as it used to be, including closer Mariano Rivera.
Baltimore is off to a good start, but they started hot last year and look where they ended up. Same thing happened to Cleveland last year.
It's early so I wouldn't panic yet, but the Yankees need that big win to get the ball rolling, and I think that big win happens tonight.
2♦ NY YANKEES -1.5
DEREK MANCINI
For today's Free Play, I'm siding with the Cubs and Volstad over the Brewers and Marcum. This game stood out to me the minute I saw the price on the Brew Crew. It's just too easy guys, especially when you consider how well Marcum pitched on the highway last season, going 8-3 with a MLB-best 2.21 ERA away. So what gives?
First off, you have to be concerned about Marcum's shoulder, as he comes into this game off some stiffness and will likely be on a pitch count. He had similar issues last season, and it wasn't an issue, but this line tells me tonight could be a different story.
Second, for all of Volstad's faults, he has pitched extremely well against the Brewers in his career, posting a 1.71 ERA. Granted, Milwaukee is loaded, but again I go back to the line. If oddsmakers really thought the Brewers were going to light him up, they'd be making us pay more of a premium. Volstad put a lot of work into improving his game in the Spring, and I expect it'll pay off (at least in the early going).
Finally, while the Brewers lead the series of late, they have had trouble in Chicago, going just 2-6 in their L8 at Wrigley. I'm convinced we're going to see the Cubs take advantage of less-than-100% Marcum, while Volstad will should be primed and ready after really dedicating himself in the offseason and Spring. Long story short, fade the public and take the Chicago Cubs with Volstad over Milwaukee and Marcum.
2♦ CHI. CUBS
The Sports Capper
San Antonio (-1) over Utah
San Antonio has covered the spread in 10 of the last 11 games when the total posted is greater than 200 points and they have also covered the spread in 9 of the last 11 games when playing their 2nd game in five days. San Antonio has covered the spread in 12 of the last 14 games after covering the spread in six or seven of the last eight games and they are averaging over 113 points a game on offense over the last five games.