DAVE COKIN
OAKLAND AT NORTHERN KENTUCKY
PLAY: OAKLAND -5.5
If you’re looking for consistency, avoid the Oakland Grizzlies at all costs. This team can be really good at times, as evidenced by a blowout win at Washington and a double OT just miss against Michigan State. The Grizzlies can also be horrible, as illustrated by home losses to Youngstown State and to this Northern Kentucky entry.
Oakland coach Greg Kampe was none too pleased about that loss to the Norse. He was very critical of his team’s poor perimeter defense in that game and suggested that it might be time for his team to alter its style of play. Message evidently received, as the Grizzlies have responded with three straight wins, and Oakland is off a very strong game in a wipeout win against Wright State.
Northern Kentucky has been a mild surprise in its Horizon League debut. The Norse figured to be one of the bottom three teams in the league, but they’re doing a bit better than that. But I’m thinking that some of the Northern Kentucky success has been due to them being overlooked as a first-year entry that didn’t exactly arrive with a tradition of success. In other words, they’ve been overlooked. I doubt that will be the case tonight with Oakland in revenge mode for what they’re perceiving as an embarrassing loss.
So this all boils down to which version of the Grizzlies shows up tonight. If it’s the Oakland team we’ve seen over the last few games, I don’t see the Norse being able to stay with them for 40 minutes. I’m betting the superior team with a serious revenge motive is the way to play this one, and I’m laying the points with Oakland.
Sleepyj
N. Kentucky / Oakland Over 154
Two very high scoring teams on tap for this one..Neither team plays defense either...Oakland is the #3 scoring team in CBB...N. Kentucky avg's about 73ppg....Oakland gave up on playing defense this year..I'm a little shocked they went with this style of play under coach Greg Kampe...I guess when you have Kalil Felder on the floor, it's ok though...I expect a track meet in this one...154 looks to be a tad low here...I can only see this game going up..The morning move looks like a classic setup move..This number goes back up and by a few points i believe..I'll grab this one right now !!
Rob Vinciletti
Monmouth vs. Siena
Play:Monmouth -1½
Monmouth has a solid 35 Ranking in the RPI Scale and has played a much tougher schedule than Siena. Monmouth has quality wins over UCLA, Georgetown, and Notre Dame. They have won all 3 this year vs teams ranked 51 to 100 like Siena and have covered 8 of 9 vs winning teams and all 6 times with 1 or less day of rest. Siena has lost 4 of 5 in this series including an earlier matchup this year. They have failed to cover 3 of 4 with 1 or less day of rest and lost both times to top 50 teams. Make it Monmouth.
Larry Ness
SMU at Houston
Play: Houston
Larry Brown began the season serving a suspension and shortly after he returned to the court, guard Frazier (11.9-4.4) left the team for "personal reasons" (he is said to be a key person in the NCAA's investigation of SMU). However, the Mustangs extended their unbeaten streak to 18-0 before losing at Temple on Jan 24. With probation removing the postseason carrot and its unbeaten season having disappeared with the loss at Temple, it might not be easy for Larry Brown's SMU team to maintain a sharp edge for the remainder of the season.
The Mustangs built a 12-point first-half lead Saturday vs Memphis but they struggled in the final 20 minutes of an 80-68 home win. "I hope the film makes me a liar but I don't think so," Brown said. "I think there are things from this game that we really did well and there are things that we have to do better because Houston is a terrific team. They have guys who can score the ball and there's a little difference playing at home to playing on the road. We'll have a real challenge."
SMU is led by PG Nic Moore (15.7-4.9 APG) and forwards Ben Moore (12.9-7.4) and Tolbert (12.3-9.4). Starting alongside of Nic Moore are freshman guard Milton (10.8) and junior guard Brown (10.2-4.9). The 6-9 Kennedy (9.2-5.5) is the key frontcourt reserve, while freshman guard Foster (5.1-3.3) assumes that role in the backcourt. The Mustangs are a VERY good team but Houston already pushed the then-unbeaten Mustangs to the wall in four-point loss at Moody Coliseum on Jan 19, even though the Cougars were without leading scorer Gray (17.3).
The Cougars are a surprising 15-6 (5-4 in AAC play) in Kelvin Sampson’s second season (Cougars were 13-19 last year). This season has gone much differently for Houston, which has has stamped itself as a contender in the AAC. Rob Gray Jr (17.3) leads four in double figures, joined by the 6-8 Pollard (12.2-5.6) plus fellow guards Johnson (10.0) and Dotson (12.1-7.5), who is also the team’s top rebounder at just 6-5.
Gray matched a career high with 31 points in Saturday's double-overtime win over East Carolina, while junior guard Dotson contributed a career-high 23 points and 13 rebounds. Kelvin Sampson's team is poised for a "signature" win and just may get it. I'll take the points with this home dog with 'plenty of bite!'
Art Aronson
Pistons vs. Nets
Play: Over 203
We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Poor defensive play: Both teams are struggling to slow down anyone, Detroit comes in off a 114-106 loss to Cleveland, before falling 111-107 at Toronto on Saturday. Brooklyn has lost three straight and 13 of 15 after falling 105-103 at New Orleans. All signs would point to these two teams pushing the pace from the outset as they look to take advantage of these sloppy opposing defenses and a faster game = more shots and more shots = more points.
ATS statistics: Note that the total has gone OVER the number in four of the Pistons last six on the road, while the Nets have seen the total sail above the posted number in five of their last six in front of the home town crowd. And note that the total has eclipsed the posted number in 18 of these team's last 25 in the series.
The bottom line: The situation and the trends suggest that the OVER is indeed the savvy move in this contest.
Jim Feist
Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans
Pick: New Orleans Pelicans
Two of the hotter teams in the NBA meet up here on Monday in New Orleans. The Grizzlies have won three straight and seven of their last 10. They have covered three straight and are 5-3 ATS their last eight. The Pelicans have won two straight, five of the last six and seven of the last nine. They have also been very good for bettors, going 5-2 ATS their last seven games. The one area that Memphis has struggled has been on the road, where the Grizzlies are just 1-6 ATS their last seven. New Orleans is 8-3 ATS the last 11 meetings between these teams. I look for the Pelicans to take tonight's contest.
Will Rogers
Orlando at San Antonio
Play: Orlando +16½
The San Antonio Spurs will be looking to bounce back from a 117-103 loss at Cleveland as they travel to Orlando to tip off against the Magic Monday night. The Magic put an end to an eight-game skid last night when they defeated the Celtics 119-114, and they are getting a bunch of points in tonight's game.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. The Spurs' Defense - San Antonio has lost two of its last three, surrendering an average of 118.5 points per game in setbacks to the Warriors and the Cavs.
2. Previous History - The Magic are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine versus the Western Conference. They have also covered the spread in each of their last six against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
3. X-Factor - San Antonio's Kahwi Leonard is off a 24-point performance against the Cavs but he averages just 11.5 points per game through six meetings with the Magic.
Marc Lawrence
Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans
Pick: New Orleans Pelicans
Edges - Pelicans: 9-3 ATS home with one day rest versus foe with one day rest. Grizzlies: 3-10 ATS away with one day rest versus foe with one day rest. With the Pelicans out to avenge a pair of same season losses to Memphis, and back on track with wins in 7 of its last 9 games, we recommend 1* play on New Orleans.
John Ryan
North Carolina at Louisville
Prediction: North Carolina
SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Tarheels will win this game by 6 or more points. Two of the best go at in Louisville which means this will be great to watch. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Home teams as a favorite or pick (in this case Louisville) in a game involving 2 very good teams outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG, after scoring 60 points or less are 54-100 over the last 5 seasons. The Tarheels don't commit many turnovers so it's good that they are 64-40 ATS after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers since 1997. North Carolina always has a lot of history on their side as well, being 6-2 straight up against Louisville since 1997 and 3-1 straight up against Louisville over the last 3 seasons. The coaches also have a ton of history as well: Pitino is 8-20 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite as the coach of Louisville and Williams is 17-8 ATS at road when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of North Carolina. Pick North Carolina.
Mike Lundin
Mavericks vs. Hawks
Play: Under 198
The Dallas Mavericks are off back-to-back dominant defensive performances as they've held Brooklyn and Phoenix to an average of 78.5 points in their last two. They're fresh off a 91-78 win against the Suns last night and the under is 5-1 in the Mavs last six when their starting five players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day and 8-2 in their last 10 on the road. The Hawks were also in action last night as their offensive woes continued in a 105-87 defeat by the hands of the Heat at Miami. They've now been held to fewer than 88 points in three of their last six games and seven of their last nine have failed to go over the total. The Hawks defeated the Mavs 98-95 at Dallas on Dec. 9, the fourth consecutive game in the series that went under the total.
Jimmy Boyd
Bulls/Jazz Under 193
The books have set the total too high for Monday's showdown between the Bulls and Jazz. Each of the last 6 meetings in this series have gone UNDER the total and all 6 have seen a combined final score of 192 or less.
The Bulls come into this game off a 93-120 loss on the road against the Clippers yesterday. It was the third time in 4 games they scored 96 or fewer and it won't be easy getting the offensive going against a Utah team that is allowing just 86.0 ppg over their last 4.
While the Jazz come into this game having scored 100+ in back-to-back games, this is not a good offensive team, as they are only averaging 97.7 ppg on the season. Chicago had held each of their previous 3 opponents to 91 or less points prior to giving up 120 against the Clippers. Coming off a 27-point loss should have the Bulls extremely motivated for a win and that should have them coming out with a lot of energy on the defensive side of the ball.
UNDER is 24-13 in Utah's last 37 as a home favorite, 12-2 in their last 14 in the 2nd half against a marginal winning team and 20-8 in their last 28 against the Eastern Conference. UNDER is also 4-0 in the Bulls last 4 against a team with a losing record and 5-0 in their last 5 against a team from the Northwest Division.
Matt Fargo
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans
Play: Under 201
This game was off the board at most places early due to the uncertain status of center Marc Gasol for Memphis and guard Tyreke Evans for New Orleans. Both teams are hot in the win column and additionally, they are both crushing the books with high scoring games. New Orleans has gone over the total in eight straight games while Memphis has gone over the total in nine of its last 10 games so the linesmakers have been slow to making adjustments but one has been made for tonight. These teams met two weeks ago and that total closed at 194 so while it went over, a total of 200 points were scored. We are seeing a seven-point adjustment here and it is enough that would have made five of those nine overs actually go under for the Grizzlies. Both New Orleans and Memphis average fewer than 100 possessions per game which puts them in the bottom half of the league so we should not see a very fast paced game tonight. The under is 13-3 in the Grizzlies last 16 road games against teams with a winning home record while the under is 35-16-1 in the Pelicans last 52 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Power Sports
Cleveland vs. Indiana
Pick: Indiana
Cleveland figures to be quite the popular side tonight as they've won four straight for new HC Tyronn Lue with the most recent victory also being the most impressive. They shredded San Antonio on Saturday, 117-103, in what almost amounted to a "must win" at home. But, beware of Indiana taking points in this spot.
The Pacers have performed really well in conference games this season, going 18-7 ATS (16-9 SU), including 7-2 vs. their own division. They are a perfect 4 for 4 - both SU and ATS - the last four times hosting the Cavaliers. Early in the year, in Cleveland, they stayed within a generous (8-point) spread, losing only 101-97. That makes the number tonight look a lot more tantalizing by comparison. Also, while January didn't go so well for Indiana (7-8 SU/6-9 ATS), they did close the month w/ B2B wins. That should give them some confidence coming into this big Central Division matchup.
Nine of Cleveland's 12 losses have occurred out on the road. They are still a losing proposition when favored (17-22 ATS) this season. My own power ratings have this game basically as a pick 'em. Since LeBron returned to Cleveland, three of his team's four wins over the Pacers have been by four points or less. Indiana is a very impressive 16-5 ATS this season vs. teams with a losing record, not to mention 15-7 SU at home where they outscore opponents by 6.1 points per game.
Kevin Rogers
Oakland at N. Kentucky
Play: N. Kentucky +5.5
The last time these teams met up in Michigan in mid-January, Northern Kentucky shocked Oakland as 13-point underdogs, 90-73. The Norse has bounced back from a 1-4 start in Horizon play to win three of their last four games, with the only loss coming to conference leader Valparaiso. The Golden Grizzlies have won three straight since getting tripped up by Oakland, while going 8-1 ATS this season on the road. However, seven of those covers came in the underdog role, while not being listed as more than a two-point favorite on the highway this season. I'll take the points with Northern Kentucky.
Wunderdog
North Carolina @ Louisville
Pick: Louisville +1
A bounce back spot for Louisville at home after getting smoked by Virginia the last game. They are 13-1 at home, and the fans will be fired up with #1 North Carolina in town. The Tar Heels are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning straight up record. UNC is only 4-2 straight up away from home, losing at Texas and Northern Iowa. Louisville leads the nation in scoring margin, defeating opponents by an average of 19.1 points per game. As a team, the Cardinals are shooting 48.5 percent from the field while holding opponents to 37.7 percent shooting (the latter is tops in the ACC). The teams split their two regular season matchups last year, winning on their home courts. The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS following a double-digit loss at home, so look for a big bounce back effort.