Scott Rickenbach
Milwaukee at Sacramento
Pick: Under 214
The first meeting between these teams was back in late November and the game totaled 247 points. I like to go opposite in a rematch when something crazy happens in the first meeting between teams and certainly that was an unusual result back in November. Milwaukee's 18 other non-conference games have seen only 7 overs while Sacramento's 16 other non-conference match-ups have resulted in just 4 overs! Both teams are on losing streaks entering this game and that means both should be willing to slow down and play a little defense to try and get back into the win column. In their last four home games the Kings have held all four opponents to 42% or less from the field. Before their current two game losing streak the Bucks were wrapping up a stretch where they have held four of their past five opponents under 41.3% from the field. They know a return to playing some solid defense is the only way they can right the ship. For the Kings this their first home game after a three game road trip. The last time this occurred was on January 21st and the Kings got a 91-88 win over Atlanta that night. Look for another low-scoring game here as Sacramento adjusts slowly to being back home after their recent road trip. When off of a game where they scored 105 points or more the Kings have gone 15-9 to the under in their next game. The Bucks are on a long-term run of 30-14 to the under when they are on the road and the posted total is 210 points or more.
Dave Price
Bulls/Jazz Under 191.5
The Utah Jazz play at a slower pace than any other team in the NBA this season. They rank 30th in pace at 93.0 possessions per game. They'll control the tempo tonight playing at home against the Chicago Bulls as this will be a half-court battle throughout with few fast break opportunities. The Jazz are one of the best defensive teams in the league when Rudy Gobert is on the floor. They have allowed an average of just 86.0 points per game in their last four contests. Now they take on a Bulls team that has been held to 96 or fewer points in 3 of their last 4. The UNDER is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings with combined scores of 192 or less in all 6 meetings.
Brandon Lee
Bucks vs. Kings
Play: Kings -4
Sacramento is going to be extremely motivated to get back in the win column after dropping 4 straight and the Bucks are just the team to help them get back on track. Milwaukee has been struggling as well, as they are just 1-4 in their last 5. Most importantly the Bucks are just 7-21 on the road this season, getting outscored by an average of 8.5 ppg. Sacramento should be able to impose their will on the offensive end, as they are averaging 106.6 ppg and the Bucks come in allowing 104.3 ppg on the road. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are allowing 103+ ppg against an opponent that scored 110 or more in their previous game are 44-78 ATS over the last 5 seasons.
Ray Monohan
Raptors vs. Nuggets
Play: Raptors -5½
The Raptors head into Denver to take on the Nuggets Monday night and they’ve become one of the most deadly teams in the NBA. All the focus this season has been on the Cavaliers, Spurs, and Warriors. Meanwhile, Toronto has racked up 11 straight wins and has put all the pressure on the Cavs.
They matchup with a bad Denver team here who is just 9-15 at home and has had very little luck lately. They had a poor month of January and have dropped 5 of 7 overall. The Nuggets have allowed an average of 111.4 points over their past 8 games.
Expect Toronto to really shut down Danilo Gallinari here as he has been the one who has burned them the most. Doing that, will certainly shut this Nuggets offense down and lead the Raptors to a lopsided win here.
Road team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Greg Shaker
Magic / Spurs Under 203
Interestingly this number opened at 201, jumped to 203, and is now sifting back downward. It's also interesting that Trend People will note that OVER is 7-1 the last 8 between these 2 in San Antonio. But that is not relative to anything of course. Duncan will sit again tonight. This game is not going to be close IMO, especially after the Spurs were subdued by the Cavs most recently. Our number is lower than what is posted here and because of that I am recommending a small play on the UNDER..
Bruce Marshall
North Carolina St. +5.5
While NCS has mostly disappointed in ACC play, the Wolfpack are certainly not finished, displaying plenty of spark in Saturday's 85-69 home romp past hot Miami. The Wolfpack also recentrly rolled at Pitt and stayed comfortably within the number at North Carolina, dropping only 3 of its last 8 vs. the spread. Meanwhile, G Cat Barber continues his assault on ACC defenses, scoring 30 or more in three of his last four games. FSU is off of back-to-back wins over BC and Pitt, and earlier beat Virginia in Tallahassee, but will have trouble extending the margin on Barber-led NCS.
Alex Smart
Magic vs. Spurs
Play: Spurs -16
Needless to say San Antonio is probably a little irritated after losing 2 of their L/3 games, including a 117-103 beat down at the hands of LeBron James and company this past weekend. Now looking to get back to their usual dominating ways, I expect we will see the Spurs in top form, even though they will play without veteran super star Tim Duncan ( knee injury). It must be noted that San Antonio has been a good bet in the past, off an upset loss as a road favorite bouncing back to cover 8 straight times with the average margin of victory coming by a whopping 20.4 ppg. Yes, I know the books are asking us to cover a very big line here, but when the Spurs have been listed as 10 or more point chalk this season, they have come through cashing 15 of 21 times while winning those tilts by an average of 20.9 ppg. Meanwhile, Orlando despite of finding a way to win last night vs Boston by 119-114 count has lost 8 straight before that, and now on tired legs after last night run and gun affair, Im betting they find the sledding tough vs a cranky but powerful home side, that has won all 25 of their home games this season. Once again I must reiterate that it is long term suicide laying DDs in the NBA, but in certain spot situations, laying the heavy lumber is a viable investment option, all be it though via a lighter wager.
Jack Jones
Denver Nuggets +5.5
The Denver Nuggets have quietly been a covering machine of late. They have gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall and have been playing extremely competitive basketball for over a month now. In fact, they have only lost by 10 points or more once in their last 17 games overall.
Yet the betting public continues to want nothing to do with the Nuggets despite the fact that they have gone toe-to-toe with everyone they've played. That is reflected in this line as the Nuggets are still 5.5-point home underdogs to the Toronto Raptors tonight.
The betting public has jumped all over the Raptors due to their 11-game winning streak coming into this game. Well, they've been overvalued in their last two games and are again here tonight because of it. They failed to cover as 12-point home favorites in a 10-point win against the depleted Knicks, and only won by 4 as 7.5-point home favorites over the Pistons in their last two games. They are now ripe for the upset as this will be their first true road game since January 9.
The Nuggets are 10-1 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in five straight games over the last two seasons. Denver is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a SU loss. The Nuggets are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 meetings with the Raptors, including a 106-105 upset road win as 10-point dogs in their first meeting this season.
Rob Veno
Dallas at Atlanta
Play: Dallas +6
Rick Carlisle took an opposite approach to his resting Dirk Nowitzki by sitting him last night in the first of a back-to-back situation. The thought process is a logical one as Dallas had what on the schedule appeared to be and subsequently turned out to be a walk through spot versus hapless Phoenix. Carlisle’s decision that playing Nowitzki wouldn’t be necessary to defeat Phoenix was correct and now figures to pay dividends as Dallas will be at full strength on the road against a more difficult opponent in Atlanta. The Hawks have been mired in an offensive slump lately failing to exceed 95 points or 41.8% FG shooting in five of their last six games. The recent 1-5 SU/ATS downswing seems to be having a negative effect on the team mindset as indicated by starting Kent Bazemore who said, "We're trying to find ourselves right now and there isn't really much going our way, it is just a tough time right now.” “We just got to stick with it. It's just not our time right now, and we got to deal with it." Certainly those words seem to suggest that the Hawks are only in the process of trying to get a grasp on what’s wrong. There are other significant factors including a recent injury to starting Paul Milsap which has either kept him out of the lineup or hindered his effectiveness the past few games. Starting point guard Jeff Teague is dealing with trade rumors which have been swirling like hurricane winds and could possibly be a distraction for him. Conversely, the Mavericks enter this game seeking atonement for their 98-95 loss back on December 9 which was a game that starting small forward Wesley Matthews feels they could’ve won had their play not been so lax. Tonight Dallas seems ready to bring full focus and energy to Phillips Arena and with last night’s non-taxing effort against Phoenix, they have the fresh legs and depth necessary to give a strong 48 minutes here. Price opened at +7 and has since come down to +6 but feel that’s enough to cash tonight with a motivated Dallas team.
GoodFella
Cavs / Pacers Over 209
I have this total set at 211 so value for me at this number. Cavs really playing fast since Lue took over & these Pacers will play along with the fast paced game here IMO. Indiana offense much better when they push pace too. These Pacers also more potent offensively when playing on their HOME floor. Bottom line for me here is that I have this game clearing the 209 and I on the OVER with these two clubs on Monday Night.
Harry Bondi
INDIANA +1 over Cleveland
This looks like a letdown spot for Cleveland who is coming off a huge win over San Antonio. Indiana has always given the Cav's fits winning 17 of their last 21 meetings outright and covering the last 4. Pacers get the money again!
Bruce Marshall
Cavs / Pacers Over 209
The jury is still very much out on the Dave Blatt dismissal and Tyronn Lue promotion in Cleveland, with Lue hinting that he wants the Cavs to start running more and playing at a faster tempo. Evidence that it might be taking hold came in Satuday's 117-103 win and "over" vs. the Spurs. So for the moment we'll ride that emerging Cavs "over" trend.
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on the Houston Cougars catching points from the 13th-ranked SMU Mustangs. The Cougars are catching +6 points at home, but come into this one on a two-game win streak.
Houston is sitting second in the league with 78.6 points per contest, scoring 75 or more points in 12 games to date this season, and is just behind SMU, which is scoring 80 points per contest.
The Cougars lost to SMU earlier this season, 77-73, in Dallas, back on Jan. 19. So if they were able to hang close to this powerhouse on its court, I expect Houston to respond with the same effort on its court.
Houston should be rolling after knocking off East Carolina 97-93 in double overtime in Greenville, N.C., on Saturday, so motivation will also be on its side.
Though SMU won the last three meetings and four of the last five meetings, Houston leads the series 23-10 at home. The Mustangs did win their two trips to Houston, so add in a double-revenge theory and it's even more attractive.
Take the home pup.
5* HOUSTON
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight: Iona (-3') at ST. PETERS
The STORYLINE in this game today - One of the funnest conferences to cover this time of the year is the MAAC. The Ionas, Manhattans, Quinnipiacs, Monmouths - they're all fun to watch, and I will steadily look for value. Tonight that value is with perennial favorite Iona, as the Gaels are laying a field goal to St. Pete, and should win this by about 7 tonight.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor in this one is the must-win factor. The Gaels are sitting one game back of Monmouth in the league standings, and are tied with Siena. The latter two face one another tonight, and Iona gets fourth-place Saint Peter's, which is 8-11 overall and 6-4 in league play. The Peacocks are competitive, but they've lost three in a row and they're not as deep and talented as Iona this season.
BOTTOM LINE is - Iona's offense is fast-paced and will lay it on thick tonight. The Gaels rank 85th in the nation on Ken Pomeroy’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (108.0) through 19 games, a stat that is measured by calculating the amount of points a team would score in 100 possessions. The Gaels are the 38th "fastest paced" team in the country, averaging 73.2 possessions per game. In layman's terms: this team runs and guns, and never stops. Tonight they run past the Peacocks.
2* IONA
Chris Jordan
Tonight my free play is on the team that has become the nation's darlings in college basketball - the Monmouth Hawks. Seriously, is there another team in the nation that has captivated the nation? From Monmouth's rise in the mid-major ranks, to its bench antics every game, to those reserves appearance on SportsCenter recently.
Monmouth is the hype.
And though it is playing for the third time in five days, I think the momemtum is in Monmouth's favor, as things increasingly get better for the Hawks (17-5, 9-2), who continue to try to steal the spotlight from Iona and Manhattan, the teams who have hoisted the MAAC tourney trophy the last three years.
Monmouth has won four of the five matchups since joining the league in 2013, and three straight in the series, including a sweep last season.
Three players on Monmouth's starting lineup are averaging double figures, led by Justin Robinson's 20.1 points per game. He has scored in double figures 21 times this season.
There's also Micah Seaborn, a two-time MAAC Rookie of the Week who is averaging 11.9 ppg., and Deon Jones, who is contributing 10.3 ppg., and recently scored a career-high 21 against this same Siena team. I love the balance of this team, as the scoring stretches five deep on the bench.
Take the road team in this one, as Monmouth rolls to the win and cover.
4* MONMOUTH