Stephen Nover
Boston at WASHINGTON +5
Washington is trying for its first three-game winning streak since April of 2008. I believe the Wizards stand a good chance of getting it.
They catch Boston playing its fourth game in five days and second in two days. This kind of schedule would be tough on any team, but it's especially brutal on the veteran Celtics since they rely heavily on oldsters Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce.
Celtics coach Doc Rivers has been careful not to overextend the minutes of his fragile three star veterans. Rivers is looking at the big picture. He wants his team healthy for the playoffs. He'll sacrifice this game if he has to rather than risk the health of his Big Three.
The Celtics are not playing well. They have lost eight of their past 12, including their last three. They lost a heartbreaker at home to the Lakers by one point on Sunday after blowing an 11-point fourth-quarter lead.
Boston has been involved in four back-to-back games since Dec. 28. The Celtics are 0-4 straight-up and against the spread in the second of these games during this span.
Chemistry is better on the Wizards since Gilbert Arenas was kicked off the team. Team defense has improved and there isn't such resistance in trying to pick up Flip Saunders' offense. A healthy Mike Miller has provided a spark. Washington is giving up an average of 89.8 points in four of its last six games.
2♦ WIZARDS
Karl Garret
Texas -2' at OKLAHOMA STATE
15-10 with my comp plays the last 25 days.
Tonight I will lay the small number with the Longhorns as they visit Stillwater for a date with the Cowboys of Oklahoma State.
Texas has failed their last 8 against the spread, and they have lost 3 of their last 4 coming into this game. My feeling is the "due theory" applies tonight with Rick Barnes' team.
The Longhorns did lose the last series meeting against the Cowboys which was played in Stillwater, but before that loss, Texas had won 6 straight with a 3-2-1 spread mark in those 6.
It is about time Texas gets a win, and tonight is that night.
Play the Longhorns as the small road chalk.
2♦ TEXAS
Dominic Fazzini
Texas -1' at OKLAHOMA STATE
I could only manage a push Sunday with the Celtics on my complimentary selection, but I guess it's better than a loss. However you look at it, I'm now on a 63-46-4 run over the past 113 days, but I plan on improving on that tonight with a college hoops winner.
Texas has fallen off quite a bit recently, and with a rough stretch ahead of the team, it knows it better pick things up quickly if it intends to stay in contention for a No. 1 seed in a run toward a possible national title.
The Longhorns actually didn't play that badly in their overtime loss at home Saturday against Baylor. The Bears just match up well with Texas, and I don't think Oklahoma State is in that same position tonight.
I expect Damion James to rule the paint against the Cowboys, and the Longhorns have enough athletic talent on the perimeter to make life tough for OSU star James Anderson, the Big 12's leading scorer at 22.5 ppg.
The Cowboys don't have enough offensive threats after Anderson to step up and take charge against Texas, but the Longhorns have a number of players who can give them points when needed.
Just about all the ATS trends favor Oklahoma State, but I think Texas is going to come into this game with a newfound focus. Take the more talented Longhorns to execute well tonight and hand the Cowboys their first home loss of the season.
3♦ TEXAS
Bobby Maxwell
Texas at OKLAHOMA ST. +1'
My FREE run has been amazing as I've gone 64-26-1, including 41-12-1 with my last 54 come selections. Tonight I have a college hoops freebie for you as I go with Oklahoma State at home against Texas in Big 12 play.
It’s been a tough stretch for the Longhorns since they were named the No. 1 team in the country two weeks ago. And it isn’t getting easier tonight as they have to travel to Stillwater, Okla. for a matchup with the Cowboys.
Texas has dropped three of four overall and they haven’t cashed a betting ticket in eight straight games. The Longhorns lost at home on Saturday, falling 80-77 in overtime to Baylor as a nine-point favorite. They shot just 38.6 percent from the floor and they just don’t look as hungry as they were early in the season when they were blew out North Carolina.
Oklahoma State is a perfect 11-0 at home and they are 4-0-1 ATS in the five lined contests at home. The home team has won seven of the last eight meetings between these two, including both matchups last season. The Cowboys won 68-59 at home as a one-point favorite and they are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings with Texas at Iba Arena.
The Longhorns are on ATS slides of 5-20-1 in Big 12 games, 3-12-1 on the road against teams with winning home records, 0-5 on the road and 0-7 after a non-cover. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is on positive ATS runs of 13-4 in Big 12 contests, 20-6-1 overall, 34-16-3 at home and 4-1 after a straight-up loss.
The place will be rocking and Texas’ slide will continue. Play the Cowboys in this one.
5♦ OKLAHOMA ST.
DUNKEL
Charlotte at Portland
The Bobcats look to build on their 9-4 ATS record in their last 13 road games. Charlotte is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+1 1/2)
Game 701-702: Boston at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 116.661; Washington 114.428
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 2; 189
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 5; 191
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+5); Under
Game 703-704: Milwaukee at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 115.927; Miami 125.833
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 10; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 6; 189
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-6); Over
Game 705-706: LA Lakers at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 123.416; Memphis 122.805
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 1; 208
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 2 1/2; 207
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+2 1/2); Over
Game 707-708: Phoenix at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: 116.491; New Orleans 123.491
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 7; 217
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 2; 210
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-2); Over
Game 709-710: Sacramento at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 111.182; Denver 124.278
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 13; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 11 1/2; 210 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-11 1/2); Under
Game 711-712: Dallas at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 118.145; Utah 127.957
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 10; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 4; 199
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-4); Under
Game 713-714: Charlotte at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 120.919; Portland 120.576
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 186
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 1 1/2; 189 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+1 1/2); Under
NCAAB
Connecticut at Louisville
The Huskies look to take advantage of a Louisville team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games as a home favorite of 1 to 6 1/2 points. Connecticut is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+6)
Game 715-716: Western Michigan at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 54.261; Buffalo 53.239
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 1
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (+4 1/2)
Game 717-718: Eastern Michigan at Akron
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 47.991; Akron 64.936
Dunkel Line: Akron by 17
Vegas Line: Akron by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Akron (-13 1/2)
Game 719-720: Northern Illinois at Kent State
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 47.029; Kent State 66.341
Dunkel Line: Kent State by 19 1/2
Vegas Line: Kent State by 13
Dunkel Pick: Kent State (-13)
Game 721-722: Connecticut at Louisville
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 70.792; Louisville 72.286
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Louisville by 6
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+6)
Game 723-724: Texas at Oklahoma State
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 70.109; Oklahoma State 72.595
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (+2 1/2)
Game 725-726: Canisius at Iona
Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 51.351; Iona 62.849
Dunkel Line: Iona by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Iona by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iona (-9 1/2)
Game 727-728: South Carolina State at Florida A&M
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina State 44.852; Florida A&M 40.080
Dunkel Line: South Carolina State by 5
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 729-730: Prairie View A&M at Alabama State
Dunkel Ratings: Prairie View A&M 40.704; Alabama State 45.271
Dunkel Line: Alabama State by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 731-732: Toledo at Bowling Green
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 37.932; Bowling Green 58.435
Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 20 1/2
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (-14 1/2)
NHL
Anaheim at Florida
The Ducks are coming off a 2-1 win at Tampa Bay and look to build on their 4-1 record in their last 5 games after allowing 2 goals or less in the previous game. Anaheim is the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-110)
Game 51-52: Buffalo at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 12.687; Pittsburgh 11.606
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+110); Over
Game 53-54: Anaheim at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 12.630; Florida 11.778
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-110); Under
Game 55-56: Philadelphia at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.321; Calgary 11.571
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-130); Under
Game 57-58: Carolina at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 12.435; Edmonton 10.219
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-130); Under
Rocketman
Dallas @ Utah
Play: Utah -4
Dallas is 1-6 ATS this year after 3 or more consecutive overs. Utah is 94-21 SU and 69-43 ATS last 3 years in all home games. Utah is 34-18 ATS last 3 years against Southwest Division opponents. Utah is 19-6 SU at home and is scoring 105.8 points per game at home this year. Utah has won 5 in a row and 9 of their last 10 games overall. Utah is 4-0 SU and ATS at home vs Dallas the past 3 years. Mavericks are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 days rest. Jazz are 20-4-2 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Home team is 21-5-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings. Mavericks are 3-13-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Utah. We'll recommend a small play on Utah tonight!
Chris Jordan
Connecticut +6 at LOUISVILLE
The fact Louisville has lost four of five overall, both straight-up and against the spread, tells me Rick Pitino is having some trouble getting his players on the same page.
It's too late in the season for a Pitino-coached team to be having this much trouble.
The Cardinals lost Saturday, 77-74, at West Virginia, and are now 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
Though the Cardinals are 11-3 at home this season, they've cashed in just three of nine lined contests at Freedom Hall. And here come the equally troubling Huskies, who lost 70-68 to Marquette on Saturday.
Thing is, U Conn dominated the game statistically, limiting Marquette to 38.1 percent shooting and outrebounding the Golden Eagles 41-18.
Remember, this is the same team that knocked off then-No. 1 Texas nine days ago.
Louisville might squeak this one out, but I like the points with the underdog in this one.
1♦ CONNECTICUT
Matt Fargo
3* Portland Trailblazers
Charlotte has definitely been one of the pleasant surprises in the league this season but I just cannot see it winning four straight on the road against the Western Conference. It has won three straight games on the road which is pretty impressive considering it had won only three times in its first 20 road games to start the season. I did not think the Bobcats would be able to make it three in a row against the Warriors but they did just that on Saturday and now they take a big step up in competition. The Blazers are coming off a big win at Dallas on Saturday which put an end to a three-game skid. Portland will still be without Brandon Roy but it has been getting used to it as over the last nine games, he played sparingly in just one of those and it has gone 4-5 which included six of those games coming on the road. He is obviously a big part of this team but the Blazers are excellent in other spots as well so I believe we are getting excellent value with this team especially on their home floor and also having lost two straight games at the Rose Garden. Portland is 16-9 at home this season and this number is in a good spot as the Blazers are 9-4 ATS this season when favored by fewer than five points. Andre Miller showed he is more than a capable replacement as he poured in 52 points in that win over Dallas last time out. Charlotte has won only four of 20 games on the road as an underdog and with this line being so small, an outright Portland win likely means a cover as well. The Bobcats are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games against teams from this division while the Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the Eastern Conference. They are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. 3* Portland Trailblazers
Lenny Del Genio
UTA -4.5 vs DAL
Look out for the Jazz. They've won five straight, the longest such streak in the Western Conference, and have moved into fourth place overall in the playoff race, trailing only the division leaders. One of them being Dallas, but the Mavs have failed to cover three straight and nine of their last 11. They are also 0-4 SU/ATS their last four visits to Salt Lake, not to mention the Jazz blasted them by 18 at home last month. Since inserting Kirilenko into the starting lineup, the Utah offense has taken off scoring triple digits the last seven games and they are averaging over 110 points per game the last ten games. Dallas allowed Blazers PG Andre Miller to go for 52 points in an OT loss Saturday night, so, in other words, look for Jazz PG Deron Williams to go off in his return from injury. Take Utah.
King Creole
MEM +2 vs LAL
The bubble bursts for the giddy LAKERS tonight on the road against the Memphis Grizzlies. That's because NBA road favorites playing with NO REST off a road win against the Boston Celtics have gone a PERFECT 0-7 ATS since the 2002 season!
Since December, NBA road favorites playing on a MONDAY have gone a PERFECT 0-8 ATS (Lakers).
This is LA's final game in their l-o-n-g 8 game ROAD trip.
1-6 ATS since 1993: All Conference teams in their 8th STRAIGHT road game... versus an opponent off a SU loss (Grizzlies).
Dan Bebe
MEM +2 vs LAL
This is a rare 1* Free Premium Play, rather than my usual recommendation of a half unit, because, let's face it, this play is of Top Play quality!
The Memphis Grizzlies could not be in a better situation to go up against the defending Champs. The Lakers played the ultimate high-profile NBA game yesterday, an ABC Network buzzer-beating victory over the Boston Celtics, furthering the public's perception of the Lakers as a never-lose proposition. This is simply not the case.
The Lakers pushed a number of wagers yesterday, covered a couple, lost a couple, but that's not the important note here. The Lakers had covered 3 straight prior to the win over Boston, but that's not important, either. The important note here pertains to VALUE. And with the Lakers already-inflated line getting another kick in the pants from an ATS run and Sunday afternoon victory, the value is squarely on the side of the Grizz.
The Memphis Grizzlies have been one of the strongest teams in the NBA over the last month, and suffered a rather predictable letdown against the Chris Paul-less Hornets in a home loss, immediately after another somewhat predictable road loss to a Spurs team on revenge.
Many folks will look at this match-up and think it will be another easy roll through town for the Lakers -- hell, they've been beating everyone on this road trip, and suddenly look formidable away from Staples, but it's so important to remember the situation. This game is not only a letdown spot after the Boston game yesterday, but it's ALSO a look-ahead spot, with the Lakers finally reaching the end of a brutally long 8-game road trip. The family men on the Lakers are going to be ready to get home, and I expect a markedly weaker effort in this game than in any other game on this trip, with the possible exception of the loss in Toronto.
This game should go the way a lot of letdown games go. The Lakers will come out of the gates pretty strong, using the residual adrenaline from the late-game Kobe-heroics last night to propel them to a quick start, but with every TV timeout, they will slow. Andrew Bynum will lose focus; Lamar Odom will be thinking about his Kardashian; Pau Gasol will have to try to get jazzed up for his younger brother, and vice versa. I believe the Grizzlies hang tough for a half, outplay the Lakers in the 3rd quarter and pull off a nice upset. I was pondering the money line on this play, but we know how the Lakers can squeeze out 1-2 point miracle wins, so let's take the points and at least give us a 1-bucket window over Kobe and his game-ending mastery.
GoodFella
WAS +5.5 vs BOS
Tough spot here for Boston--not only are they coming off a tough HOME loss to the Lakers, in a game that was on ABC--This is also Bostons' 4th game in 5days tonight. Boston is just (4-5 SU & 2-7 ATS) in the back end of back to back ballgames this season. Boston is also (2-8 ATS L/10) games as a ROAD favorite of -5 to -10.5. Washington is on a 2 game win streak, as they have a 2 pt win AT New Jersey, and a (106-96) HOME win over the Knicks on Saturday. The Wizards are (5-2 ATS L/7) games as a HOME dog if +5 to +10.5 & this is definitely a solid spot to back Washington in my opinion. Boston heads back home for a 3 game homestand starting Wednesday vs the Heat & this ballgame has all the makings of a potential upset by Washington. Grab the points with the Wizards tonight guys.
John Ryan
Texas vs. Oklahoma State
Play: Oklahoma State +2
3* graded play on Oklahoma State as they host Texas set to start at 9:00 and will be seen on ESPN. Our proprietary sports handicapping model/simulator shows solid projections calling for Oklahoma State to win this game. OSU is very difficult venue for any team to come and try to get a road win. Even more difficult when the team has been struggling big time and one that was just ranked number 1. It doesn’t get an easier either with Oklahoma this Saturday and then a quick turn around again Monday with a date with Kansas. Texas is a very good team, BUT they are one of the worst foul shooting teams in the country hitting just 61%. They have lost 3 of 4 games since winning the first 17 and getting the school’s first number ranking. During this 4 game stretch they have shot a horrid 54% from the charity stripe. OSU can play a physical style of play and has depth on the bench to force texas to either make foul shots or defeat them from the perimeter. Foul shooting is not the only thing Texas needs to be concerned with in this game. OSU has the leading conference scorer in James Anderson, who also is coming of season high 31 at Missouri this past Saturday. OSU is a strog defensive team challenging nearly every shot attempted. They also prefer to defend shots then try to force turnovers and this combination has presented big problems for Texas. Note that Texas is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus good defensive teams that are allowing a shooting percentage of <=42% after 15+ games this season; 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. Take Oklahoma State.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Suns/Hornets UNDER 212.5
With Chris Paul not expected to play, and with the Suns playing a back-to-back, I don't see these two teams being able to push this one over the total. New Orleans is 16-3 Under in home games versus explosive offensive teams scoring 103 or more points per game over the last 2 seasons. New Orleans is also 13-2 to the Under in home games where the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 2 seasons. And the Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams in New Orleans. We'll take the Under for 1 Unit.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Miami Heat -6
After falling to the Bucks in Milwaukee on Saturday, I expect the Heat to bounce back strong at home tonight. The last time the Bucks visited Miami, they lost 102-85 as an 8.5-point dog. That's where I think the line should be again, but odds makers have lowered it knowing that the public would be on Milwaukee here after they just defeated the Heat. The Bucks are just 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Miami. They are also just 5-18 on the road this season, and that is significant as the Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Lay the points with Miami for 1 unit tonight.