Scott Delaney
Boston at Washington
Something strange about this one, but all signs are pointing me toward the Wizards here.
Since an 86-77 victory in Orlando on Christmas Day, the Atlantic Division-leading Celtics have dropped 11 of 17, including a 90-89 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers yesterday.
And it wasn't just any loss, as Boston was up 11 over the Western Conference frontrunners in the fourth quarter and led 89-88 with 28 seconds remaining.
This is a perfect spot for a letdown, as the Celtics will come in with their guards down and hit a season-low by losing to the hapless Wizards
Boston has dropped three straight and seven of 10 on the road, while Washington is in on a two-game winning streak, which is huge for the Wizards.
Not only are the Celtics struggling on the highway, but they're failing miserably at the window, having lost seven of 10 to the books.
Boston, which is on a 1-6-1 ATS slide overall, has also lost 14 of 17 to bookmakers on Monday nights.
Take the underdog.
2♦ WIZARDS
Tony Weston
Solid call yesterday as Florida flirts with the outright win and still cashes in delivering a strong Comp Play winner.
I’m handing you another Comp Play winner tonight as I’m taking UConn on the road at Louisville.
Coming into this game both UConn and Louisville have had their share of struggles, but the Cardinals come into this game having failed to cover in 5 of their last 6 games and have failed to cover in 3 straight home games.
In fact, for the season, Louisville is just 3-6 ATS at home this year and the team has covered in just 1 of its last 5 home games when installed as a favorite.
Now the Cardinals have to battle a UConn team that’s covered in 9 of its last 12 games when catching points and the team is 8-3 ATS its last 11 games when installed as a road ’dog.
Consider, too, in this series the Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS their last 5 meetings and the road team is 4-1-1 ATS their last 6 matchups.
Tonight, the Huskies will cash in again on the road as an underdog.
3♦ UCONN
Drew Gordon
Boston at WASHINGTON +5
51-30-3 roll L83 Free Plays (19-7 L26)! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Celtics/Wizards match up.
Dangerous spot for the Celtics, who are clearly struggling right now, losers of 6 of their L8 games (1-6-1 ATS). At the heart of their issues has been an offense that's sputtering, averaging just 90 ppg over that 8-game stretch! Their defense remains strong, but without a consistent offense, Boston's D simply can't hold on forever, as we saw against the Lakers Sunday.
Also, one has to question the Celtics mindset after losing bitterly to Kobe and company yesterday. Boston put everything they had into that game, and still lost it on their home court... In other words, a Celtics letdown here wouldn't surprise me in the least.
We saw in their last meeting - a 104-102 Boston win, but Washington cover - that these two teams match up well, and that remains true tonight. However, one thing has changed, and that's the absence of Arenas. Make no mistake, Washington is a more consistent and focused team without their resident diva and ball-hog around, and it'll show in the final score tonight. Miller has been playing great, and Butler and Jamison remain a potent 1-2 combo.
Bottom line, the Celtics may win SU here, but covering the number is a totally different story. Wizards should build off a great game vs the Knicks in their last one, while Boston continues to look for answers. Wizards circle the wagons at home Monday night!
Take Washington plus the points over Boston in this NBA match up.
1♦ WASHINGTON
Brett Atkins
College hoops free winner tonight comes with Louisville at home laying the chalk against UConn in Big East play.
This one has two struggling teams facing off with both in desperate need of a victory. I’ll lay the chalk with the home team to get the win and cover tonight.
Louisville went to West Virginia on Saturday and fell 77-74, cashing as a 6 ½-point underdog. It broke a five-game ATS losing streak for the Cardinals who should have won the game outright if not for 17 turnovers. They shot 51.9 percent from the floor and outrebounded the Mountaineers, but the turnovers just kept blowing possessions for them. Take care of the ball and they get the outright win.
Rick Pitino’s team is 11-3 at home this season and they know they need a quality win to remain a factor in the Big East.
UConn lost a home game to Marquette on Saturday, falling 70-68 as a five-point home favorite. They dominated the game but turned it over 16 times while Marquette had two turnovers. The Huskies have dropped five of seven overall (SU and ATS) and they have been a disaster on the road, going 1-6 when they play away from home.
Louisville is on ATS runs of 43-17-2 in Big East action and 7-3-1 on Mondays and they know this is a must-win situation for them. Lay the chalk and play the Cardinals.
4♦ LOUISVILLE
Jay McNeil
Four straight winners with my free play after Florida nearly gained the outright upset of Tennessee on Sunday! I'm 46-37-1 over the past 84 days, and I've got an NBA play today that is going to keep things rolling along.
The Lakers are playing the final game of their eight-game road trip, and they are coming off of an emotional, last-minute win at Boston against their longtime rival. If they aren't due for a letdown tonight, they may never be.
Plus, Kobe Bryant is still slowed by an ankle injury and a sore knee, and you could see it affecting him at times Sunday, although he still managed to hit a tough game-winning shot at the end.
He's not going to be able to muster up that type of performance tonight against a Grizzlies team that is 17-6 at home and, despite two straight losses, 7-3 in its last 10 games.
Memphis big men Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol can match up well with Los Angeles' post players, and O.J. Mayo is going to be tough for a subpar Bryant to guard.
The Lakers are just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games against the Grizzlies, and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games in Memphis. And the Grizzlies are also on ATS runs of 14-6-1 overall, 19-8-1 at home, 11-3 as an underdog and 5-0 as a home underdog. Go with Memphis to cover the points tonight.
2♦ MEMPHIS
Charley Sutton
Bad call with Pitt yesterday as the Panthers can’t do enough to cash in for us. But I’m not sweating that at all because I’m delivering today as I’m switching gears and handing you a strong NBA winner.
Tonight, I’m taking the Suns on the road at the hurting New Orleans Hornets. Word just came over the weekend that all-world point guard Chris Paul will miss at least a month with a knee injury.
That doesn’t bode well for the Hornets, who are installed as about a 1-point favorite tonight against the visiting Suns.
Phoenix comes into this game having covered in 2 of its last 3 meetings against the Hornets, going 2-1 SU and ATS in that stretch.
In fact, the Suns come into this game having covered in back-to-back games, including yesterday’s outright road victory at the Houston Rockets. Phoenix was installed as a 3 1/2 point underdog, but pulled off the 115-11 victory in overtime against the Rockets.
Now the Suns battle a Hornets team that’s covered in just 1 of its last 5 home games and is only 1-5 ATS its last 6 games when installed as a favorite.
Keep in mind, too, in this series the Underdog has covered in 8 of their last 11 meetings. Tonight, the Suns will add to that and cash in.
3 ♦ SUNS
Joel Tyson
Saturday comp play winner on Louisville plus the points.
Sunday comp play winner on Denver plus the points.
Have to take Oklahoma State as the home underdog tonight.
Texas comes to Stillwater with losses in 3 of their last 4, including 2 in a row on the road. The Longhorns are also on an 0-8 spread run their last 8 lined games.
Okie State easily held off Texas in the last series meeting at Stillwater, and the Cowboys are on a 13-4 spread mark their last 17 Big 12 games.
Until Texas shows they can win consistently on the road, I can't trust them minus this kind of number.
Take the points.
3♦ OKLAHOMA STATE
Pete Angelo
Texas at Oklahoma State
Taking the home pup tonight, as the Cowboys should win this outright.
The host has won eight of the last nine series meetings (7-2 ATS), including both meetings last season when Texas scored a 99-74 home win as an 8½-point favorite and then 18 days later the Cowboys won 68-59 in Stillwater as a one-point home favorite.
Oklahoma State is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five overall against Texas.
Take the Pokes here.
1♦ OKLAHOMA STATE
Chuck O'Brien
Take the Wizards plus the points against the Celtics in Monday’s NBA action as I shoot from my third straight free-play winner.
Washington’s a pretty bad basketball team, but how can you trust Boston to lay points against anyone right now? The Celtics have lost three in a row, falling apart in the fourth quarter in all three contests, including blowing an 11-point lead at home to Kobe Bryant and the Lakers yesterday. With that loss, Boston is now 2-6 in its last eight (the only wins came at home against the Blazers in overtime and the Clippers by just six points).
During this 2-6 stretch, the Celtics have covered just one pointspread, and that was as a 3½-point underdog in a two-point loss at Orlando. They’ve failed to cover in five straight games as a favorite and they’ve lost three in a row and four of six on the road. Also this veteran squad has really struggled in back-to-back situations, going 0-4 SU and ATS the last four times they’ve played on consecutive days. In fact, they’ve failed to cash in seven of their last eight back-to-backs. And for what it’s worth, Boston has failed to cover in 14 of its last 17 games on Monday.
The Wizards enter tonight on a rare two-game winning streak (road win at New Jersey, home win over the Knicks). Two other reasons to like Washington: It is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog of 4½ points or less, and the last time these teams met in D.C. (on Dec. 10), the Wizards gave the Celtics all they could handle (Boston eventually won 104-102, but Washington cashed as a 7½-point home underdog).
2♦ WASHINGTON WIZARDS
Jeff Benton
I’ll head to the NBA on Monday and take the points with the Suns in New Orleans.
Phoenix is in a tough back-to-back spot, having gone overtime to beat Houston last night 115-110 as a 3½-point underdog. But I can’t help but think the Hornets are the team that’s going to be more emotionally spent, following the announcement Sunday that All-Star point guard Chris Paul is going to be out for as long as two months following knee surgery.
When Paul was sidelined early this season with an ankle injury, New Orleans actually fared OK, splitting eight games, including a seven-point victory over Phoenix as a seven-point underdog. But that was in mid-November when there was still a whole season to go, and the Hornets knew their franchise player would only be sidelined for two weeks. And while New Orleans scored an impressive overtime win at Memphis on Saturday without Paul, the players didn’t know the extent of the injury at the time.
Even with Paul in the lineup, the Hornets were struggling to cover pointspreads both at home (1-4 ATS last five) and as a favorite (1-5 ATS last six). For the season, New Orleans is just 5-8 ATS when laying less than five points, while Phoenix is an impressive 13-4 ATS this year when the pointspread ranges from the Suns as a 3½-point favorite to a 5½-point underdog. Throw in the fact that the Hornets have gone to overtime four times in their last 10 games (including the last two in a row), while two of Phoenix’s last three have gone to overtime, and the value lies with the points in this one.
4♦ PHOENIX SUNS
Insider Angles
The visiting team has won outright in the last two meetings between the Western Michigan Broncos and the Buffalo Bulls, and the road team is also 6-2 against the spread in the last eight encounters, and we look for those trends to continue Monday night.
These teams have similar records, with Western Michigan at 11-9 and home standing Buffalo at 11-7, and they have similar numbers offensively, but it is the difference in the defenses that sets the Broncos apart here and gives them a chance at the upset
Starting with the raw numbers, the Broncos are allowing 66.7 points per game on 40.7 percent shooting vs. Division I opponents, while the Bulls are allowing 73.2 points per game while allowing similar foes to shoot three full percentage points higher at 43.7 percent.
When we shift our focus to the Pomeroy Ratings, the difference becomes more apparent, as Western Michigan has an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of .972 points per possession, while Buffalo has a 1.022 defensive PPP, which ranks 207 our of 347 Division I schools. The Bulls have been downright brutal defensively in their last four games, allowing 83, 75, 99 and 89 points respectively.
Buffalo simply cannot be trusted laying points the way their defense is surrendering points right now, so we will take the points with the much steadier Western Michigan defense in this spot.
Pick: Western Michigan +4
O.C. Dooley
Iona -10
Of the 14 different college teams in the New York metropolitan area Iona (16) owns the most WINS and tonight will attempt to extend a current six-game tear in front of their own HOME fans. Iona has one of the youngest head coaches as Kevin Willard is only 34 but he just happened to work for Rick Pitino at one time and has been "well schooled". Some of you reading this analysis will remember Willard's father Ralph who at one time directed the Pittaburgh program. Iona as a team has the second-best RPI ranking of any school in the Metro-Atlantic conference which is one of the reasons why they are laying double-digits. Not only is Iona REVENGING a loss last month in upstate New York, they are catching Canisius in a classic emotional "letdown" spot as they just defeated local rival Niagra back on Friday which wrapped up a three-game homestand. Iona certainly has the DEFENSE to cover this inflated spread as they are 12-4 ATS/HOME long term following a contest where they permitted less than 56 points on the scoreboard